“When a coincidence seems amazing, that’s because the human mind isn’t wired to

naturally comprehend probability & Statistics…”

Neil deGrasse Tyson

Outline of learning objectives:

1. Introduction to probability terminologies & concepts
2. Experimental & Theoretical probability
3. Related (compound) Events
4. Event A or B addition formula
5. Event A and B addition formula
6. Conditional Probability Events
7. Independent events & Mutually Exclusive Events
8. Further Practice: Venn, Tree & Tables of Probability
9. Further Conditional (dependent) probability and formula
Section 1 Basic probability terminologies & concepts

Definitions:
1. An experiment is an activity with an observable result (e.g. roll a die and record the number)

2. An outcome is one particular result of an experiment (e.g. rolling a 6)

3. A sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment
(e.g. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6})

4. An event is a subset of the sample space containing one or more possible outcomes of the
experiment (e.g. rolling an even number: A = {2,4,6} ; rolling a three: B = {3})

Further Note:

Classify: Select from the list above the term which correctly classifies each example.
1. Selecting a black card from a deck of cards is a/an:
2. The combining of two or more outcomes is a/an:
3. The result of an experiment is a/an:
4. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is a/an:
5. Rolling a pair of dice could best be described as a/an:
Section 2 Experimental and Theoretical Probability

Example 1: Consider a spinner containing four equal areas.

a) What is the theoretical probability of landing on the colour blue?

b) What is the experimental probability of landing on blue when the experiment is repeated 10
times, 100 times, 1000, times, 10000 times?

c) What do you notice about the relationship between the experimental and theoretical probabilities as
the number of trials increases?
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Example 2: The game of Kaiser is played with the 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, A of each suit. However, the 7
of ♥ is replaced with the 5 of ♥ and the 7 of ♠ is replaced with the 3 of ♠. Suppose one card is drawn
from these cards. What is the probability that it will be each card?
a) A face card b) A red jack c) A card with a face value less than 9
(aces are low)

Example 3: What is the probability that in a family of 3 children there are exactly 2 girls? Draw a tree
diagram to build the sample space.

Example 4: What is the probability of flipping two heads with two coins? What is the sample space?

Experimental Probability:
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Theoretical Probability:
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Section 3 Related (compound) Events

Example 1: List the sample space for each experiment.

a) Spinning a 3-coloured spinner (red, green, blue) and rolling a die

b) Spinning two 3-coloured spinners (red green, blue)

Example 2: One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of each
event?
a) A red 10
b) Not a red 10

Red Die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
Black Die 3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

A and B: Event A and event B both occur

A or B: Event A occurs or event B occurs or they both occur
Practice: Two tetrahedral (4-sided) dice, coloured blue and red are tossed. Define the following events:
A: The sum of the two dice is greater than 5.
B: The blue die is 1 less than the red die.
a) Determine P(A)
b) Determine P(B)
c) Determine P(A or B)
d) Determine P(A and B)

Red Die
1 2 3 4
Blue 1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4)
Die 2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4)

Example 3: Three tetrahedral (4-sided) dice, coloured blue, red and green, are tossed. A blue 1, red
2 and green 3 are represented by the point (1, 2, 3).
a) How many points are in the sample space?
b) How many ordered triples have a total of 7?
c) What is the probability of getting a 7?
Section 4 The Event A or B

Situation 1: Drawing a ♠ or a Red Card. Let S and R represent these events.

S: The card is a ♠
R: The card is red

1. Determine: P(S) = P(R) =

P(S or R) = P(S and R) =

2. What is the relationship between P(S or R), P(S), P(R)?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) = 0

Section 4.1 Mutually exclusive events

Two events A and B that cannot occur at the same time are mutually exclusive
events. They have no common outcomes.

Situation 2: Drawing a ♠ or a Face Card. Let S and F represent these events.

S: The card is a ♠
F: The card is face card
1. Determine: P(S) = P(F) =

P(S or F) = P(S and F) =

2. What is the relationship between P(S or F), P(S), P(F), P(S and F)?
 Addition Formula: P(A and B) ≠ 0
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Two events A and B that are not mutually exclusive have some common outcomes.

Which of the following events are mutually exclusive?

1. Both rain and sunshine today.
2. Getting an odd number and a number greater than 5 when rolling a die.
3. Rolling a die and getting a prime number and an even number.
4. Being female and being Prime Minister.
5. A baseball player getting a hit and a homerun when at bat.
6. A baseball player getting a home run and a walk when at bat.

Example 1: There are 18 players on a hockey team. Ten players are forwards and 5 are willing to play
in goal. Of these team members, 2 can play forward and are willing to play in goal. What is the
probability that a randomly selected player from this team is a forward or is willing to play in goal?
a) Solve using a Ven Diagram. b) Solve using a formula.
Practice: Two dice are rolled. Determine the probability that the sum of the numbers on the dice is 7
or the difference between the numbers on the two dice is 3 or greater.
a) Solve using a Ven Diagram. b) Solve using a formula.

Example 2: In a high school, 85% of grade 12 students take mathematics, 60% take Chemistry, and 50%
take both.
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected grade 12 student takes Math but not Chemistry?
b) What is the probability that a randomly selected grade 12 student takes neither Math nor Chemistry?
Section 5 The Event A and B
Section 6 Conditional Probability
Section 7 Independent & Mutually Exclusive Events
Investigation:
Section 8 Probability using Venn Diagram
Extra Questions for further practice
Section 8 Probability using Tree Diagram
Section 8 Probability using tables/grids
Section 9 Further Problems Involving Conditional (dependent) Probability
Example 2: A vehicle rental company purchases vehicles from two dealerships. Suppose 75% of the
vehicles are from dealership A and 25% are from dealership B. During the first year, 16% of the vehicles
purchased from dealership A require major repairs whereas 20% of the vehicles from dealership B
require major repairs.
a) A car is chosen at random. What is the probability that the car will require major repairs during the
first year the rental company owns the car?
b) Suppose a car requires major repairs during the first year. What is the probability that the car was
purchased from dealership B?
Practice: In a recent survey, 60% of the respondents were women. Studies have shown that women
report their heights accurately 10% of the time; whereas, men report their heights accurately 5% of the
time.
a) A respondent is chosen at random. What is the probability that the person has reported his or her
height accurately?
b) A respondent who did not report his or her height accurately is chosen. What is the probability that
the respondent is male?

Practice: A new medical test is 97% accurate. Suppose 0.25% of the population has this disease. What
is the probability that a person who tests positive has the disease?