The Altucher Guide-Investing
The Altucher Guide-Investing
The Altucher Guide-Investing
Stops...............................................................................................5
Position Size................................................................................10
They’re not all bad, but I’ve been disappointed more often than not.
This isn’t the be-all and end-all guide to stocks and investing, but it’s
my take. It’s the Altucher guide to investing—my perspective on the
markets and how I manage my own investments.
These are my personal rules for investing, and they aren’t always in
line with the “popular” sentiment.
For example, by now you’ve probably heard me talk about stop loss-
es. I’m not a fan. In my experience, stops hurt investor returns more
than they help them overall, in part because of the way they impact
market timing, and in part because of their negative influence on
proper money management. A well-organized, properly sized port-
folio is safe enough as it is, and won’t benefit from stop losses.
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But this is not what you often hear in Investing 101. Stop losses are
important, they say, to keep your portfolio from blowing up. To
keep you from suffering a 20% loss—or more—on a single position
gone wrong. But, in my experience, if a single stock is even capable
of “blowing up” your portfolio, then you’re already doing something
very wrong. Placing a stop on a holding like that is just providing
the illusion of safety, and dragging down your potential gains at the
same time.
I’ll show you how to do it right, and how to protect your entire port-
folio the smart way, without using stops.
And remember how I said I hate most business books? That’s true.
But I hate most of them, not all. So I’ve also included a reading list
here of what I consider to be some of the best, most helpful invest-
ment books available today. These are the books that I think made
me a much better investor and that I also enjoyed reading.
Part of our goal with the Top 1% Advisory is to make all of us better,
more informed investors. This e-book is one step in that direction.
- James Altucher
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
Stops
What is a “stop”?
Example: You buy IBM at $100 and you put a 10% trailing
stop on it. It goes straight up to $200 then falls to $179.
In this case your trailing stop would have sold the stock at
$180 for you.
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But I’m not going to worry about those for now.
-- It allows you to not worry about risk when you are busy
with your day-to-day life.
BUT…
Maybe, that’s not so bad (it can go lower) but often stocks
give some bounce after a severe fall like that. In fact, those
20% down opens are often a good time to buy. I can pres-
ent the statistics on that and will do so in a separate report.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
I tested on probably over 1,000 different trading systems.
Every type of trading system you can imagine.
It’s not a bad thing when a good company has a stock that
goes down.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
What is happening when a stock is doing down?
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
So what we recommend are “story stops.”
There are a lot of ways a story might change which will tell
us, “Uh-oh, we had better get out,” including:
• The stock REACHES our target and since the story has
not changed, it’s time to get out.
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Position size
The reason people often put stops on stocks is because
their portfolio sizes are not big enough. It’s hard to invest,
for instance, with $1,000. It’s not a good way to build
wealth, because people might put the entire $1,000 in one
stock. But then that stock might go down and they lose
money.
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This is the key to successful money management for every
hedge fund.
This would leave him with some stocks that were upwards
of 30% of his portfolio. But that’s no problem. He was
making a lot of money on them, so he was not worried. And
he’d stay in until the story changed.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
What makes some stocks “safer”
than others?
No company or stock is truly safe. I’ve seen amazing scan-
dals happen and ruin companies very, very quickly.
Not all stocks are that safe where they have more cash than
they are worth.
But some stocks have assets that can be liquidated that will
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add up to more than they are worth. They might have real
estate, for instance.
It’s not as safe as just having cash in the bank (we could be
wrong in the analysis) but that’s why it was a hard stock to
analyze, as opposed to easy pickings.
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What are the roles of the markets and
economy in stock picking?
Here’s the myth:
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
When more houses are being built, is this good or bad? We
simply don’t know. It sounds good. But what if housing
prices crash? Then it’s bad. Or is that good? Because now
more people can afford homes.
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I’d rather be studying the latest in cancer diagnostics or
battery technology than staring at a stock screen. Those are
the developments that are really going to make a difference
in the long run. Although, to be honest, I’ve spent many
thousands of hours, to my deep regret, staring at stock
screens.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
The differences between trading
and investing
I used to run a hedge fund that would hold onto trades for
five minutes at a time on average. The longest was a day.
The shortest was about five seconds.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
The patterns were (in my theory) based on investor psy-
chology. For example, if the market fell for five days in a
row (simple example again) then chances are that most
people who were going to sell had already sold, so there
was a chance for at least a quick bounce at the market
open.
All I cared about was the quick bounce. I would go for .5%
profit every day. And I would make a trade maybe one out
of three days.
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Who knows? All I know is this: The systems worked for me
but didn’t work for anyone else. Perhaps because I pro-
grammed them and so understood more of my own psy-
chology.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
So surprise and illusion are the tools of the trader. But
since hundreds of hedge funds are now privy to the latest
software and they hire hundreds of programmers, any edge
traders once had has basically disappeared except in small
cases, which we will cover from time to time.
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What’s a reasonable time frame for a
longer-term investment?
I invest in both public companies and private companies in
my personal account.
Now, these companies are less mature (in general) than the
public companies we will be investing in.
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But sometimes I recommend a stock and a few months
later the stock is down but the story hasn’t changed and
people get nervous.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
IMPORTANT READING LIST FOR 1%-ers
When I first started investing I bought a bunch of account-
ing textbooks.
But here are some books that I think made me a much bet-
ter investor and that I also enjoyed reading.
The point is, he literally goes the extra mile on every one of
his investments. How often do we do that with the import-
ant financial decisions in our lives?
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“You Can Be a Stock Market Genius”
by Joel Greenblatt
“Buffett”
by Roger Lowenstein
“Bold”
by Peter Diamandis
This is the book to read to get caught up on the state of the art.
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“The Myth of America’s Decline”
by Josef Joffe
Too many people will try and scare you with the statement,
“America is dead.”
It’s not necessarily a bad agenda. But it’s one that can help
us make money if the fear becomes too great. The greatest
moneymaking opportunities happen when people become
scared.
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“The Greatest Trade Ever”
by Greg Zuckerman
Did we invest? No. Here was the problem: Paulson was go-
ing to be down 1% a month every month until the collapse
hit. Which is what happened. And then in 2007, he was up
600%. But my investors did not want me to be in a fund
that was going to be down 1% a month potentially forever.
But it’s a great example of a fund that did all the research
on what was ludicrous (and I am grateful I got to see the
insides of all of that research up close) and then put its
money into that research.
At the time I visited John, his fund had about $300 million
in it. Now I think it’s closer to $30 billion.
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The Altucher Guide to Investing
“The Money Game”
by Adam Smith
Adam flies to the friend’s city and meets a young man who
shut down his hedge fund and has about $20 million and
doesn’t know what to do with his life.
The friend is, of course, Warren Buffett, but this was before
Buffett was well-known by every investor on the planet. For
that chapter alone, this pop-finance book from the ‘70s is
worth the read.
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I loved the book’s prescience so much I called up the top
publisher at Wiley Books and told her about the book and
said, “You have to re-publish this.”
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Bonus: Why did Warren Buffett go from
running a hedge fund, to running a bank,
to running an insurance company?
This goes to the heart of what those different institutions
really do to make money.
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What is a bank?
When you put your money in the bank, you get a small
interest rate in return (assuming you put most in a savings
account, maybe you get around 1%).
Now the bank can invest your money, AND they can bor-
row from the Federal Reserve to invest even more money.
It’s as if you are lending the bank money, they are paying
you 1%, and then they lend it out for mortgages and other
things at a rate of about 7%.
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The insurance company now gets to invest that money and
keep 100% of the profits.
Now, people get sick and the insurance company pays out
money under the terms of their policies.
But they try to balance that with new money coming in.
That way they get to keep 100% of the profits without any
other costs.
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