Adl 2035

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Aviation

2035
by Arthur D Little
Airport
OEM MRO Navigation Ground
Lessor Airlines Service Handlers
IT Solutions
Aircraft Infrastructure
Providers Providers
Air service
Providers

8 Aviation industry stakeholders


identified in scenario for
aviation in 2035
“ New era of commercial
aviation industry between
2000 - 2030 Hyper-competition Hyper-cooperation
Asean open skies Lifted ownership rights
Ownership
Global open skies
Aircrafts Next-gen long haul jets Last-mile aviation

Airlines New entrants (LCC) Multi-brand airline holding

US-EUR-China JVs
Aircraft Provider US-EUR duopoly
for specific program

2000 2020 2030


aircraft providers
mass customization economic deregulation
horizontal consolidation

environmental regulations airline as a media provider new OEM competition

airlines horizontal
automation aircraft as a service
consolidation

airlines vertical
new aviation & hypervelocity sovereign deregulation
fragmentation

cybersecurity and manufacturers vertical


airport facility scattered
connectivity integration

15
legend:
Scenarios of disruption that can
be occurred in aviation industry base scenario

digital transformation stretched scenario


Base Scenario
high impact


MASS LAST-MILE AVIATION & AIRLINE AS
AUTOMATION HYPERVELOCITY
CUSTOMIZATION MEDIA PROVIDER
the ones with
high impact & by 2035 gen Y and Z entire stakeholder of current players of share of ancillary
high certainty will increasingly ask aviation industry aviation industry have revenues between
of occurrence for customized offering will be able to reduce to adapt to personal airlines and other
make up the in order to fulfill operating cost and short-distance transport industry. Such as
base scenario their personal increase asset utilization such as drones and co-branding, in-flight
experience on board (AI, pilot-less aircraft) other aerial vehicles retail, car-sharing.
Base Scenario
low impactsa


CYBERSCURITY & AIRLINE HORIZONTAL AIRCRAFT PROVIDER
CONNECTIVITY CONSOLIDATION CONSOLIDATION
the ones with
high impact & aviation 4.0 requires airline consolidation aircraft providers will
high certainty cybersecurity and will be able to continue to move toward
of occurrence connectivity as the improve the flight aviation 4.0 by making
make up the operation of industry frequency and also a consolidation with
base scenario will be conducted extend the airline other players in order to
automatically network innovate more
operate
aircrafts
MRO manage
OEM airline fleet
maximize
aircraft
flying hours
reduce
aircraft TCO
fix defects
on aircraft

yesterday today tomorrow


rise of LCC digital aircraft
technical skills synergies artificial intelligence
OEM licenses predictive capabilities integrated fleet mgmt system

CAA certifications customized/ a la carte self-piloting aircraft


Thank
You

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