CHAPTER 8: RISK AND RATES OF RETURN  Collections: Is countercyclical with the economy,

and has a negative correlation. This is unusual.

What is investment risk?
Calculating the Expected Return
 Two types of investment risk
- Stand-alone risk
- Portfolio risk

 Investment risk is related to the probability of

earning a low or negative actual return.

 The greater the chance of lower than expected, or

negative returns, the riskier the investment.

Probability Distributions

 A listing of all possible outcomes, and the probability Summary of Expected Returns
of each occurrence.

 Can be shown graphically.

High Tech has the highest expected return, and appears

to be the best investment alternative, but is it really?
Have we failed to account for risk?
Selected Realized Returns, 1926 – 2010 Calculating Standard Deviation

Hypothetical Investment Alternatives

Standard Deviation for Each Investment

Why is the T-bill return independent of the economy?

Do T-bills promise a completely risk-free return?

 T-bills will return the promised 5.5%, regardless of

the economy.
 No, T-bills do not provide a completely risk-free
return, as they are still exposed to inflation.
Although, very little unexpected inflation is likely to Comparing Standard Deviations
occur over such a short period of time.
 T-bills are also risky in terms of reinvestment risk.
 T-bills are risk-free in the default sense of the word.

How do the returns of High Tech and Collections

behave in relation to the market?

 High Tech: Moves with the economy, and has a

positive correlation. This is typical.
  Risk aversion: assumes investors dislike risk and
require higher rates of return to encourage them to
hold riskier securities.

 Risk premium: the difference between the return on

a risky asset and a riskless asset, which serves as
compensation for investors to hold riskier securities.

Comments on Standard Deviation as a Measure of Portfolio Construction: Risk and Return

Risk
 Assume a two-stock portfolio is created with
 Standard deviation (σi) measures total, or stand- $50,000 invested in both High Tech and Collections.
alone, risk.  A portfolio’s expected return is a weighted average
 The larger σi is, the lower the probability that actual of the returns of the portfolio’s component assets.
returns will be close to expected returns.  Standard deviation is a little more tricky and requires
 Larger σi is associated with a wider probability that a new probability distribution for the portfolio
distribution of returns. returns be constructed.

Comparing Risk and Return Calculating Portfolio Expected Return

Coefficient of Variation (CV) An Alternative Method of Determining Portfolio

Expected Return
A standardized measure of dispersion about the
expected value, that shows the risk per unit of return.

Illustrating the CV as a Measure of Relative Risk

Calculating Portfolio Standard Deviation and CV

Risk Rankings by Coefficient of Variation

Comments on Portfolio Risk Measures

 σp = 3.4% is much lower than the σi of either stock

(σHT = 20.0%; σColl = 13.2%).
 σp = 3.4% is lower than the weighted average of
 Collections has the highest degree of risk per unit of High Tech and Collections’ σ (16.6%).
return.  Therefore, the portfolio provides the average return
 High Tech, despite having the highest standard of component stocks, but lower than the average
deviation of returns, has a relatively average CV. risk.
 Why? Negative correlation between stocks.
Investor Attitude Towards Risk
General Comments about Risk
 σ  35% for an average stock.
 Most stocks are positively (though not perfectly)
correlated with the market (i.e., ρ between 0 and 1).
 Combining stocks in a portfolio generally lowers risk.

Returns Distribution for Two Perfectly Negatively

Correlated Stocks (ρ = -1.0)

Breaking Down Sources of Risk

Stand-alone risk = Market risk + Diversifiable risk

 Market risk: portion of a security’s stand-alone risk

that cannot be eliminated through diversification.
Measured by beta.
Returns Distribution for Two Perfectly Positively  Diversifiable risk: portion of a security’s stand-
Correlated Stocks (ρ = 1.0) alone risk that can be eliminated through proper
diversification.

Failure to Diversify

 If an investor chooses to hold a one-stock portfolio

(doesn’t diversify), would the investor be
compensated for the extra risk they bear?
- NO!
- Stand-alone risk is not important to a well-
diversified investor.
Partial Correlation, ρ = +0.35 - Rational, risk-averse investors are concerned
with σp, which is based upon market risk.
- There can be only one price (the market return)
for a given security.
- No compensation should be earned for holding
unnecessary, diversifiable risk.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

 Model linking risk and required returns. CAPM

suggests that there is a Security Market Line (SML)
that states that a stock’s required return equals the
Creating a Portfolio: Beginning with One Stock and risk-free return plus a risk premium that reflects the
Adding Randomly Selected Stocks to Portfolio stock’s risk after diversification.

 σp decreases as stocks are added, because they

would not be perfectly correlated with the existing
portfolio.
 Expected return of the portfolio would remain  Primary conclusion: The relevant riskiness of a
relatively constant. stock is its contribution to the riskiness of a well-
 Eventually the diversification benefits of adding diversified portfolio.
more stocks dissipates (after about 40 stocks), and
Beta
for large stock portfolios, σp tends to converge to 
20%.  Measures a stock’s market risk, and shows a stock’s
volatility relative to the market.
Illustrating Diversification Effects of a Stock Portfolio  Indicates how risky a stock is if the stock is held in a
well-diversified portfolio.

Comments on Beta
 If beta = 1.0, the security is just as risky as the The Security Market Line (SML): Calculating
average stock. Required Rates of Return
 If beta > 1.0, the security is riskier than average.
 If beta < 1.0, the security is less risky than average.
 Most stocks have betas in the range of 0.5 to 1.5.

Can the beta of a security be negative?

 Yes, if the correlation between Stock i and the

market is negative (i.e., ρi,m < 0). What is the market risk premium?
 If the correlation is negative, the regression line
 Additional return over the risk-free rate needed to
would slope downward, and the beta would be
compensate investors for assuming an average
negative.
amount of risk.
 However, a negative beta is highly unlikely.
 Its size depends on the perceived risk of the stock
Calculating Beta market and investors’ degree of risk aversion.
 Varies from year to year, but most estimates
 Well-diversified investors are primarily concerned suggest that it ranges between 4% and 8% per year.
with how a stock is expected to move relative to the
market in the future. Calculating Required Rates of Return
 Without a crystal ball to predict the future, analysts
are forced to rely on historical data. A typical
approach to estimate beta is to run a regression of
the security’s past returns against the past returns of
the market.
 The slope of the regression line is defined as the
beta coefficient for the security.
Expected vs. Required Returns
Illustrating the Calculation of Beta

Illustrating the Security Market Line

Beta Coefficients for High Tech, Collections, and

T-Bills

An Example:
Equally-Weighted Two-Stock Portfolio

Comparing Expected Returns and Beta Coefficients  Create a portfolio with 50% invested in High Tech
and 50% invested in Collections.
 The beta of a portfolio is the weighted average of
each of the stock’s betas.
Calculating Portfolio Required Returns company’s historical data may not reflect investors’
expectations about future riskiness.
 The required return of a portfolio is the weighted
average of each of the stock’s required returns.

 Or, using the portfolio’s beta, CAPM can be used to

solve for expected return.

Factors That Change the SML

 What if investors raise inflation expectations by 3%,

what would happen to the SML?

 What if investors’ risk aversion increased, causing

the market risk premium to increase by 3%, what
would happen to the SML?

Verifying the CAPM Empirically

 The CAPM has not been verified completely.

 Statistical tests have problems that make verification
almost impossible.
 Some argue that there are additional risk factors,
other than the market risk premium, that must be
considered.

More Thoughts on the CAPM

 Investors seem to be concerned with both market

risk and total risk. Therefore, the SML may not
produce a correct estimate of ri.

 CAPM/SML concepts are based upon expectations,

but betas are calculated using historical data. A