PROFILE ON THE PRODUCTION OF BAKING

POWDER
Table of Contents
I. SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................................1
II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION AND APPLICATION.........................................................................................1
III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY.............................................................................................3
IV. MATERIALS AND INPUTS......................................................................................................................7
V. TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING........................................................................................................8
VI. HUMAN RESOURCE AND TRAINING REQUIREMENT......................................................................14
VII. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................................15
FINANCIAL ANALYSES SUPPORTING TABLES..............................................................................................20

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3
I. SUMMARY

This profile envisages the establishment of a plant for the production of baking powder with a
capacity of 60 tons per annum. Baking powder is a chemical product used for dough leavening.

The country`s requirement of baking powder is met through import. The present (2012) demand
for baking powder is estimated at 586 tons. The demand for the product is projected to reach
1,096 tons and 1,664 tones by the year 2018 and year 2022, respectively.

The principal raw materials required are sodium acid pyrophosphate, sodium bicarbonate, and
starch which have to be imported.

The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 4.09
million. From the total investment cost the highest share (Birr 2.79 million or 68.35%) is
accounted fixed investment cost by followed by initial working capital (Birr 679.69 thousand or
16.63%) and pre operation cost (Birr 613.88 thousand or 15.02%). From the total investment cost
Birr 743.40 thousand or 18.19% is required in foreign currency.

The project is financially viable with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 20.50% and a net present
value (NPV) of Birr 2.26 million, discounted at 10%.

The project can create employment for 29 persons. The establishment of such factory will have
a foreign exchange saving effect to the country by substituting the current imports. The project
will also create forward linkage with the food processing sub sector and also generates income
for the Government in terms of tax revenue and payroll tax.

II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION AND APPLICATION

Modern baking powder is a chemical product used for dough leavening which consists of a
mixture of sodium bicarbonate, one or more acid ingredients, and an inert ingredient which

4
serves to keep the reactive components physically separated and minimizes premature reaction in
the dry mixture. Starch dried to 5--7% moisture content is usually used as the inert ingredient.
Calcium sulfate and calcium carbonate are sometimes used as substitutes for part of the starch.

Out of the household baking powder in general use, the type containing sodium aluminum
sulfate (SAS or soda alum) is most prevalent. A small amount of monocalcium phosphate
monohydrate (MCP) is used in combination with the SAS. The MCP serves to perform gas cells
during the makeup of the dough so that uniform and efficient expansion occurs in the oven. This
is necessary since SAS is almost completely nonreactive until heat is applied which is known as
double – acting baking powder.

Commercial baking powders often contain sodium acid pyrophosphate (SAPP), which is superior
to SAS in stability and performance. Household baking powders are often used in biscuits and
quick breads where the pyro flavor precludes the use of SAPP.

III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY

A. MARKET STUDY

1. Past Supply and Present Demand

The country`s requirement for baking powder has been entirely met through import from
different origins. The historical import data for the past eleven years obtained from the
Ethiopian Revenues & Customs Authority is depicted in Table 3.1.

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 Table 3.1
IMPORT OF BAKING POWDER AND CIF VALUE

Quantity Value
Year
(Tons) (‘000 Birr)
2001 94 939
2002 135 1,461
2003 109 1,044
2004 339 3,853
2005 122 1,200
2006 163 1,605
2007 253 2,784
2008 245 2,818
2009 318 4,607
2010 508 12,734
2011 640 21,143

Source: - Ethiopian Revenue and Customs Authority.

As could be seen from Table 3.1, the quantity of baking powder imported in the past eleven
years has shown an increasing trend although there were minor fluctuations in the data set. The
growth in the past consumption of baking powder can be clearly observed when the data set is
analyzed on the averages of three years interval.

The yearly average level of import which was 112.6 tones during the years 2001--2003 has
increased to 208 tons during the period 2004--2006. Similarly, the yearly average quantity
imported during the period 2007--2009 has increased to 272 tons. A substantial growth of
import is recorded during the recent two years of 2010--2011, which stood at annual average of
574 tons. Compared to the previous three years annual average it is higher by more than two
fold. Generally, import of the product in the past eleven years has shown an annual average
growth of about 25%

By looking to the above trend analysis, the average imported quantity of the recent three years
i.e. 2009--2011, which is 489 tons, is taken as the effective demand for the year 2011. By

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applying a growth rate of 20%, less than the observed trend in the past, the current (year 2012)
demand is estimated at 586 tons.
2. Demand Projection

Demand for baking powder depends on the growth of the targeted consumers and their
disposable incomes. Moreover, new entrants to use the product will also have an effect on the
demand for the product. At present, the product has been used by bakeries and urban dwellers.
The past ten years delivery (2001-2010) showed an average annual increase of 25%.
Nevertheless, this figure thought to be very high for future estimation. Therefore, the annual
GDP increase, which is 11%, has been taken in projecting the future demand. Based on the
above assumption, the projected future demand is shown in Table 3.2

Table 3.2
PROJECTED DEMAND OF BAKING POWDER (TONS)

Projected
Year
Demand
2013 650
2014 722
2015 801
2016 890
2017 987
2018 1,096
2019 1,217
2020 1350
2021 1,499
2022 1,664

The demand for baking powder will increase from 650 tons in the year 2013 to 1,096 tons and
1,664 tons by the year 2018 and year 2022, respectively

3. Pricing and Distribution

The average CIF price of baking powder in the year 2011 was Birr 58.00 per kilogram.
Allowing 30% for duty, handling cost and other import related costs a factory gate- price of Birr
75.40 per kilogram is recommended.
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Baking powder is a consumer product which is demanded by most of the urban population and
bakeries. The end users of the product are numerous and their geographical distribution is very
wide. Hence, the envisaged plant should utilize experienced distributors in various parts of the
country. The product will finally reach to the end users through retail outlets such as super
markets and general merchandising shops.

B. PLANT CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION PROGRAM

1. Plant Capacity

The envisaged plant will have the capacity to produce 60 tons of baking powder per annum. This
production capacity is proposed on the basis of a single shift of 8 hours per day and 300 working
days per annum. It is assumed that maintenance works will be carried out during off – production
hours.

2. Production Program

Taking the technological condition of baking powder and the learning curve of production
workers into account, the plant is proposed to start operation at 75% of the installed capacity
which will grow to 85% in the second year. Full capacity production will be achieved in the third
year and onwards. Details of annual production program are shown in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3
ANNUAL PRODUCTION PROGRAM

Sr. Description Unit of Production Year

No. Measure 1st
2nd 3rd &
Onwards
1 Baking powder ton 45 51 60
2 Capacity utilization rate % 75 85 100

IV. MATERIALS AND INPUTS

A. RAW AND AUXILIARY MATERIALS

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 The main raw materials required for the envisaged plant consist of sodium acid pyro –
phosphate, sodium bicarbonate, and starch used as filler. The annual requirement for raw
materials at full capacity production of the plant and the estimated costs are given in Table
4.1.
Table 4.1
ANNUAL RAW MATERIALS REQUIREMENT AND COST
Sr. Description Unit Required Unit Cost, ('000 Birr)
No. of Qty. Price, F.C. L.C. Total
Measure Birr/Unit
1 Sodium acid ton 30 45,203.00 1,084.87 271.21 1,356.09
pyrophosphate
2 Sodium kg 15 15,422.00 185.06 46.26 231.33
bicarbonate
3 Starch (filler) kg 15 22,867.00 274.40 68.60 343.00
Total 1,544.34 386.08 1,930.42

The auxiliary materials required for the envisaged project include packing materials which
include polyethylene bags, coated metallic cans and glass packages as deemed necessary.
The annual requirement for auxiliary materials at full capacity production and the estimated
costs are shown in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2
ANNUAL AUXILIARY MATERIALS REQUIREMENT AND COST

Sr. Description Unit of Required Unit Cost, ('000 Birr)

No. Measure Qty. Price, F. C. L.C. Total
Birr/Unit
1 Polyethylene pc 120,000 3.15 302.40 75.60 378.00
bag
2 Coated pc 60,000 4.20 201.60 50.40 252.00
metallic can
Total 504.00 126.00 630.00

B. UTILITIES

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 Utilities required for the plant are electric power and water. Annual cost of utilities is
estimated at Birr 44,740. The annual utility requirement of the plant at full capacity operation
and the estimated costs are given in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3
ANNUAL UTILITIES REQUIREMENT AND COST

Sr. Unit
Annual Price, Cost, ('000 Birr)
No Unit of Requiremen Birr/Uni
. Description Measure t t F.C. L.C. Total
1 Electric power kWh 60,000 0.579   34.74 34.74
2 Water m3 1,000 10.00   10.00 10.00
Total   44.74 44.74

V. TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING

A. TECHNOLOGY

1. Production Process

The production process of baking powder essentially involves blending which is a physical
mixing of the various components in a large scale batch mixer. Sodium acid pyro –
phosphate, sodium bicarbonate and starch are the major ingredients to be mixed in certain
proportions. The order in which mixing occurs may have influence on the stability of the
product. Rigid specifications for purity, granulation, and moisture content of the components
must be adhered to if a uniform, stable, and reliable product is to be obtained. Variations in
ingredients purity can alter the proper balance of acids to soda. Granulations is very critical,
not only in terms of stability and uniformity of distribution of particles during blending, but
also in the appearance of baked products, and speed of blending are essential to attain and

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maintain proper distribution of particles The proper kind. The baking powder is usually
packed in airtight metallic or fiber cans or small polyethylene bags.

2. Environmental Impact

The envisaged plant does not have any adverse impact on the environment. Thus, the project
is environment friendly.

B. ENGINEERING

1. Machinery and Equipment

The total cost of machinery and equipment is Birr 929.3 thousand of which Birr 743.4
thousand is required in foreign currency. The list of plant machinery and equipment required
for the envisaged project and their estimated costs are given in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1
LIST OF MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT AND COST

Sr. Unit of Require Cost, ('000 Birr)

Description
No. Measure d Qty F.C. L.C. Total
1 Sifter set 1 96.64 24.16 120.80
Micro pulverizer, complete
2 with motors and other set 1 104.08 26.02 130.10
accessories

Mixer, double shaft, 3 HP

3 set 1 96.64 24.16 120.80
motor and other accessories

Electrical oven with 48 trays,

4 cabinet model, thermostatic set 1 118.94 29.74 148.68
control & other accessories

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 Sr. Unit of Require Cost, ('000 Birr)
Description
No. Measure d Qty F.C. L.C. Total

Weighing machine platform

5 set 2 178.42 44.60 223.02
type, 50 kg, table model

Polyethylene bag sealing

6 set 1 96.64 24.16 120.80
machine
Miscellaneous equipment like
7 set 1 52.04 13.01 65.05
trays, bins, etc.
Total 743.40 185.85 929.25

2. Land, Buildings and Civil Works

The total area of land required for the project is 500 m 2. The total built-up area is 250 m 2. This
includes production hall, finished products and raw materials stores, offices and social facilities.
The total cost of buildings and civil work at a unit cost of Birr 4,500 per m 2, is estimated at Birr
1.125 million.

According to the Federal Legislation on the Lease Holding of Urban Land (Proclamation No
721/2004) in principle, urban land permit by lease is on auction or negotiation basis, however,
the time and condition of applying the proclamation shall be determined by the concerned
regional or city government depending on the level of development.

The legislation has also set the maximum on lease period and the payment of lease prices. The
lease period ranges from 99 years for education, cultural research health, sport, NGO , religious
and residential area to 80 years for industry and 70 years for trade while the lease payment
period ranges from 10 years to 60 years based on the towns grade and type of investment.

Moreover, advance payment of lease based on the type of investment ranges from 5% to
10%.The lease price is payable after the grace period annually. For those that pay the entire
amount of the lease will receive 0.5% discount from the total lease value and those that pay in
installments will be charged interest based on the prevailing interest rate of banks. Moreover,
based on the type of investment, two to seven years grace period shall also be provided.

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However, the Federal Legislation on the Lease Holding of Urban Land apart from setting the
maximum has conferred on regional and city governments the power to issue regulations on the
exact terms based on the development level of each region.

In Addis Ababa, the City’s Land Administration and Development Authority is directly
responsible in dealing with matters concerning land. However, regarding the manufacturing
sector, industrial zone preparation is one of the strategic intervention measures adopted by the
City Administration for the promotion of the sector and all manufacturing projects are assumed
to be located in the developed industrial zones.

Regarding land allocation of industrial zones if the land requirement of the project is below 5000
m2 the land lease request is evaluated and decided upon by the Industrial Zone Development and
Coordination Committee of the City’s Investment Authority. However, if the land request is
above 5,000 m2 the request is evaluated by the City’s Investment Authority and passed with
recommendation to the Land Development and Administration Authority for decision, while the
lease price is the same for both cases.

Moreover, the Addis Ababa City Administration has recently adopted a new land lease floor
price for plots in the city. The new prices will be used as a benchmark for plots that are going to
be auctioned by the city government or transferred under the new “Urban Lands Lease Holding
Proclamation.”

The new regulation classified the city into three zones. The first Zone is Central Market District
Zone, which is classified in five levels and the floor land lease price ranges from Birr 1,686 to
Birr 894 per m2. The rate for Central Market District Zone will be applicable in most areas of the
city that are considered to be main business areas that entertain high level of business activities.
The second zone, Transitional Zone, will also have five levels and the floor land lease price
ranges from Birr 1,035 to Birr 555 per m2 .This zone includes places that are surrounding the city
and are occupied by mainly residential units and industries.

The last and the third zone, Expansion Zone, is classified into four levels and covers areas that
are considered to be in the outskirts of the city, where the city is expected to expand in the future.
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The floor land lease price in the Expansion Zone ranges from Birr 355 to Birr 191 per m 2 (see
Table 5.2).

Table 5.2
NEW LAND LEASE FLOOR PRICE FOR PLOTS IN ADDIS ABABA

Floor
Zone Level Price/m2
1st 1686
Central Market 2nd 1535
3rd 1323
District
4th 1085
5th 894
1st 1035
2nd 935
Transitional zone 3rd 809
4th 685
5th 555
1st 355
2nd 299
Expansion zone
3rd 217
4th 191

Accordingly, in order to estimate the land lease cost of the project profiles it is assumed that all
new manufacturing projects will be located in industrial zones located in expansion zones.
Therefore, for the profile a land lease rate of Birr 266 per m 2, which is equivalent to the average
floor price of plots located in expansion zone is adopted.

On the other hand, some of the investment incentives arranged by the Addis Ababa City
Administration on lease payment for industrial projects are granting longer grace period and
extending the lease payment period. The criterions are creation of job opportunity, foreign
exchange saving, investment capital and land utilization tendency etc. Accordingly, Table 5.3
shows incentives for lease payment.

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 Table 5.3
INCENTIVES FOR LEASE PAYMENT OF INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS

Payment Down
Grace Completion Paymen
Scored Point Period Period t
Above 75% 5 Years 30 Years 10%
From 50 - 75% 5 Years 28 Years 10%
From 25 - 49% 4 Years 25 Years 10%

For the purpose of this project profile, the average i.e. five years grace period, 28 years payment
completion period and 10% down payment is used. The land lease period for industry is 60
years.

Accordingly, the total land lease cost at a rate of Birr 266 per m 2 is estimated at Birr 133,000 of
which 10% or Birr 13,300 will be paid in advance. The remaining Birr 119,700 will be paid in
equal installments with in 28 years i.e. Birr 4,275 annually.

NB: The land issue in the above statement narrates or shows only Addis Ababa’s city
administration land lease price, policy and regulations.

Accordingly the project profile prepared based on the land lease price of Addis Ababa region.

To know land lease price, police and regulation of other regional state of the country updated
information is available at Ethiopian Investment Agency’s website www.eia.gov.et on the factor
cost.

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VI. HUMAN RESOURCE AND TRAINING REQUIREMENT

A. HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT

The total human resource required for the project is 29 persons. The human resource requirement
along with the annual estimated labor cost including fringe benefits is presented in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1
HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT AND LABOR COST

Required Salary, Birr

Sr.
Job Title No. of
No.
Persons Monthly Annual
1 Plant manager 1 4,500 54,000
2 Typist/clerk 1 650 7,800
3 Personnel 1 850 10,200
4 Financial manager 1 3,000 36,000
5 Accountant 1 800 9,600
6 Cashier 1 800 9,600
7 Salesman /Purchaser 2 1,600 19,200
8 Store keeper 1 800 9,600
9 Production and technical manager 1 3,200 38,400
10 Production supervisor 1 1,500 18,000
11 Quality controller/chemist 2 1,200 14,400
12 Mechanic 1 850 10,200
13 Electrician 1 850 10,200
14 Skilled worker 5 2,750 33,000
15 Unskilled worker 5 2,000 24,000
16 Driver 1 700 8,400
17 Guard 3 1,200 14,400
Sub - Total 29 27,250 327,000
Employees benefit, 20% of basic salary 5,450 65,400
Total 32,700 392,400

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B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT

One production supervisor and 5 skilled workers should be given a one month on – the - job
training by an advanced technician of the equipment supplier before start- up of operation. The
total training cost is estimated at Birr 120,000.

VII. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

The financial analysis of the baking powder project is based on the data presented in the previous
chapters and the following assumptions:-

Construction period 1 year

Source of finance 30 % equity
70 % loan
Tax holidays 3 years
Bank interest 10%
Discount cash flow 10%
Accounts receivable 30 days
Raw material imported 120 days
Work in progress 1 day
Finished products 30 days
Cash in hand 5 days
Accounts payable 30 days
Repair and maintenance 5% of machinery cost

A. TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT COST

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The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 4.09
million (See Table 7.1). From the total investment cost the highest share (Birr 2.79 million or
68.35%) is accounted fixed investment cost by followed by initial working capital (Birr 679.69
thousand or 16.63%) and pre operation cost (Birr 613.88 thousand or 15.02%). From the total
investment cost Birr 743.40 thousand or 18.19% is required in foreign currency.

Table 7.1
INITIAL INVESTMENT COST ( ‘000 Birr)

Local Foreign Total %

Sr.No. Cost Items Cost Cost Cost Share
1 Fixed investment        
1.1 Land Lease 39.90   39.90 0.98
1.2 Building and civil work 1,125.00   1,125.00 27.52
1.3 Machinery and equipment 185.85 743.40 929.25 22.73
1.4 Vehicles 450.00   450.00 11.01
1.5 Office furniture and equipment 250.00   250.00 6.12
  Sub total 2,050.75 743.40 2,794.15 68.35
2 Pre operating cost *        
2.1 Pre operating cost 346.46   790.00 19.33
2.2 Interest during construction 267.42   267.42 6.54
  Sub total 613.88   613.88 15.02
3 Working capital ** 679.69   679.69 16.63
  Grand Total 3,344.32 743.40 4,087.72 100

* N.B Pre operating cost include project implementation cost such as installation, startup,
commissioning, project engineering, project management etc and capitalized interest during
construction.
** The total working capital required at full capacity operation is Birr 913.5 thousand.
However, only the initial working capital of Birr 713.33 thousand during the first year of
production is assumed to be funded through external sources. During the remaining years the
working capital requirement will be financed by funds to be generated internally (for detail
working capital requirement see Appendix 7.A.1).

B. PRODUCTION COST

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The annual production cost at full operation capacity is estimated at Birr 4.07million (see Table
7.2). The cost of raw material account for 63.92% of the production cost. The other major
components of the production cost are depreciation, labor and financial cost which account for
10.36%, 8.16% and 4.59%, respectively. The remaining 12.97% is the share of utility, repair and
maintenance, labor overhead and administration cost. For detail production cost see Appendix
7.A.2.

Table 7.2

ANNUAL PRODUCTION COST AT FULL CAPACITY (YEAR THREE)

Items Cost
(in 000
Birr) %
Raw Material and Inputs 2,560 63.92

Utilities 45 1.12

Maintenance and repair 46 1.16

Labor direct 327 8.16

Labor overheads 65 1.63

Administration Costs 100 2.50

Land lease cost 0 0.32

Cost of marketing and distribution 250 6.24

Total Operating Costs 3,394 85.05

Depreciation 415 10.36

Cost of Finance 257 4.59

Total Production Cost 4,067 100.00

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C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION

1. Profitability

Based on the projected profit and loss statement, the project will generate a profit throughout its
operation life. Annual net profit after tax will grow from Birr 346 thousand to Birr 733 thousand
during the life of the project. Moreover, at the end of the project life the accumulated net cash
flow amounts to Birr 6,303 million. For profit and loss statement and cash flow projection see
Appendix 7.A.3 and 7.A.4, respectively.

2. Ratios

In financial analysis financial ratios and efficiency ratios are used as an index or yardstick for
evaluating the financial position of a firm. It is also an indicator for the strength and weakness of
the firm or a project. Using the year-end balance sheet figures and other relevant data, the most
important ratios such as return on sales which is computed by dividing net income by revenue,
return on assets (operating income divided by assets), return on equity (net profit divided by
equity) and return on total investment (net profit plus interest divided by total investment) has
been carried out over the period of the project life and all the results are found to be satisfactory.

3. Break-even Analysis

The break-even analysis establishes a relationship between operation costs and revenues. It
indicates the level at which costs and revenue are in equilibrium. To this end, the break-even
point for capacity utilization and sales value estimated by using income statement projection are
computed as followed.

Break -Even Sales Value = Fixed Cost + Financial Cost = Birr 1,900,080
Variable Margin ratio (%)

Break-Even Capacity utilization = Break -even Sales Value X 100 = 48.20%

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 Sales revenue

4. Pay-back Period

The pay- back period, also called pay – off period is defined as the period required for recovering
the original investment outlay through the accumulated net cash flows earned by the project.
Accordingly, based on the projected cash flow it is estimated that the project’s initial investment
will be fully recovered within 5 years.

5. Internal Rate of Return

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the annualized effective compounded return rate that can be
earned on the invested capital, i.e., the yield on the investment. Put another way, the internal rate
of return for an investment is the discount rate that makes the net present value of the
investment's income stream total to zero. It is an indicator of the efficiency or quality of an
investment. A project is a good investment proposition if its IRR is greater than the rate of return
that could be earned by alternate investments or putting the money in a bank account.
Accordingly, the IRR of this project is computed to be 20.50% indicating the viability of the
project.

6. Net Present Value

Net present value (NPV) is defined as the total present (discounted) value of a time series of cash
flows. NPV aggregates cash flows that occur during different periods of time during the life of a
project in to a common measuring unit i.e. present value. It is a standard method for using the
time value of money to appraise long-term projects. NPV is an indicator of how much value an
investment or project adds to the capital invested. In principle, a project is accepted if the NPV is
non-negative.

Accordingly, the net present value of the project at 10% discount rate is found to be Birr 2.26
million which is acceptable. For detail discounted cash flow see Appendix 7.A.5.
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D. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS

The project can create employment for 29 persons. The project will generate Birr 1.76 million in
terms of tax revenue. The establishment of such factory will have a foreign exchange saving
effect to the country by substituting the current imports. The project will also create forward
linkage with the food processing sub sector and also generates income for the Government in
terms of payroll tax.

Appendix 7.A

FINANCIAL ANALYSES SUPPORTING TABLES

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 Appendix 7.A.1
NET WORKING CAPITAL ( in 000 Birr)

Items Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11

Total inventory 480.08 544.09 640.11 640.11 640.11 640.11 640.11 640.11 640.11 640.11

Accounts receivable 217.33 243.53 282.84 282.84 283.90 283.90 283.90 283.90 283.90 283.90

Cash-in-hand 5.61 6.36 7.48 7.48 7.66 7.66 7.66 7.66 7.66 7.66

CURRENT ASSETS 703.03 793.99 930.42 930.42 931.67 931.67 931.67 931.67 931.67 931.67

Accounts payable 23.34 26.45 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12

CURRENT LIABILITIES 23.34 26.45 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12 31.12
TOTAL WORKING
CAPITAL 679.69 767.53 899.30 899.30 900.55 900.55 900.55 900.55 900.55 900.55

23
 Appendix 7.A.2
PRODUCTION COST ( in 000 Birr)

Item Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11

Raw Material and Inputs 1,920 2,176 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560 2,560

Utilities 34 38 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

Maintenance and repair 35 39 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

Labour direct 245 278 327 327 327 327 327 327 327 327

Labour overheads 49 56 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65

Administration Costs 75 85 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Land lease cost 0 0 0 0 13 13 13 13 13 13

Cost of marketing
and distribution 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

Total Operating Costs 2,608 2,922 3,394 3,394 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407

Depreciation 415 415 415 415 415 70 70 70 70 70

Cost of Finance 0 294 257 221 184 147 110 74 37 0

Total Production Cost 3,023 3,632 4,067 4,030 4,006 3,624 3,587 3,550 3,514 3,477

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 Appendix 7.A.3
INCOME STATEMENT ( in 000 Birr)

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year

Item 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year 10 Year 11

Sales revenue 3,393 3,845 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524
Less variable costs 2,358 2,672 3,144 3,144 3,144 3,144 3,144 3,144 3,144 3,144

VARIABLE MARGIN 1,035 1,173 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380 1,380
in % of sales revenue 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50
Less fixed costs 665 665 665 665 678 333 333 333 333 333

OPERATIONAL MARGIN 370 508 715 715 702 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047
in % of sales revenue 10.90 13.21 15.80 15.80 15.52 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15
Financial costs   294 257 221 184 147 110 74 37 0
GROSS PROFIT 370 214 457 494 518 900 937 974 1,010 1,047
in % of sales revenue 10.90 5.56 10.11 10.92 11.45 19.90 20.71 21.52 22.33 23.15
Income (corporate) tax 0 0 0 148 155 270 281 292 303 314
NET PROFIT 370 214 457 346 363 630 656 682 707 733
in % of sales revenue 10.90 5.56 10.11 7.65 8.02 13.93 14.50 15.06 15.63 16.20

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 Appendix 7.A.4
CASH FLOW FOR FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ( in 000 Birr)

Scra
Item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 p
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 3,141 4,363 3,849 4,529 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 1,883
Inflow funds 3,141 970 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inflow operation 0 3,393 3,845 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 0
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,883
TOTAL CASH
OUTFLOW 3,141 3,578 3,675 4,156 4,131 4,115 4,192 4,166 4,140 4,114 3,721 0
Increase in fixed assets 3,141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase in current assets 0 703 91 136 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs 0 2,358 2,672 3,144 3,144 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 0
Marketing and
Distribution cost 0 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0
Income tax 0 0 0 0 148 155 270 281 292 303 314 0
Financial costs 0 267 294 257 221 184 147 110 74 37 0 0
Loan repayment 0 0 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 368 0 0
SURPLUS (DEFICIT) 0 785 173 373 393 409 332 358 384 410 803 1,883
CUMULATIVE CASH
BALANCE 0 785 958 1,331 1,725 2,134 2,466 2,824 3,208 3,617 4,421 6,303

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 Appendix 7.A.5
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ( in 000 Birr)

Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Scra

Item Year 1 2 Year 3 4 Year 5 6 7 8 Year 9 10 11 p
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 0 3,393 3,845 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 1,883
Inflow operation 0 3,393 3,845 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 4,524 0
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,883

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 3,820 2,696 3,054 3,394 3,544 3,562 3,677 3,688 3,699 3,710 3,721 0
Increase in fixed assets 3,141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase in net working capital 680 88 132 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating costs 0 2,358 2,672 3,144 3,144 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 3,157 0

Marketing and Distribution cost 0 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0
Income (corporate) tax   0 0 0 148 155 270 281 292 303 314 0

NET CASH FLOW -3,820 697 791 1,130 980 962 847 836 825 814 803 1,883

CUMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW -3,820 -3,123 -2,332 -1,202 -222 740 1,587 2,423 3,249 4,063 4,866 6,748
Net present value -3,820 634 654 849 670 597 478 429 385 345 310 726
Cumulative net present value -3,820 -3,187 -2,533 -1,684 -1,014 -417 61 490 875 1,221 1,530 2,256

NET PRESENT VALUE 2,256

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN 20.50%
NORMAL PAYBACK 5 years

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