September 24, 2020

Biden leads Trump by 5 points among likely Va. voters;

his lead grows to 8 points among enthusiastic voters;
Warner leads Gade by 13 points in U.S. Senate contest
Summary of Key Findings
1. Democrat Joe Biden leads Republican Donald Trump by 5 points, 48%-43%,
among likely Virginia voters. Among the most enthusiastic likely voters, Biden’s
lead grows to 8 points, 51%-43%.

2. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Daniel Gade
by 13 points among likely Virginia voters, 52%-39%. Warner’s lead drops to 11
points among the most enthusiastic likely voters, 52%-41%.

3. Biden’s lead over Trump is built on a 6-point enthusiasm advantage among

Democratic voters over Republican voters. Biden also has a 27-point advantage
over Trump among women in the most enthusiastic voters, and holds Trump to
a draw among voters 45 and older.

4. Voters strongly support the proposed constitutional amendment to establish a

redistricting commission, 48%-28%, with support across all demographic
groups. Despite opposition by the state Democratic Party, 64% of likely
Democratic voters support the amendment. Republicans oppose it, 42%-32%.

5. Voters strongly disapprove of the direction of the country is heading, 76%-16%,

with 56% disapproving of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. While
47% disapprove of the direction the Commonwealth is going, Governor Ralph
Northam’s approval rating is steady at 53%.

For further information, contact:

Dr. Quentin Kidd [email protected] O: (757) 594-8499
Academic Director @QuentinKidd M: (757) 775-6932
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo [email protected] O: (757) 594-9140
Research Director @becky_btru M: (269) 598-5008

1
Analysis
Presidential Race: With Election Day just six weeks away, Joe Biden is positioned to
win in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Among likely voters, Biden leads President
Donald Trump by 5 points, 48%-43%. Another 2% support another candidate, and 7%
remain undecided. These results resemble the gap between Hillary Clinton and Trump
in 2016, when Clinton won the state with nearly 50% of the vote to Trump’s 44%.
The gap between Biden and Trumps expands to 8% when looking at the most likely
voters. Among the most enthusiastic voters, Biden is ahead of Trump 51% to 43%. These
results demonstrate Virginia’s continued shift toward Democratic candidates statewide,
which has been ongoing since the 2008 presidential election.
Biden’s lead is built on a 6-point enthusiasm advantage that Democratic voters have
over Republican voters and a 27% advantage among women, where Biden holds a 61%
to 34% lead. Further breaking down the most enthusiastic likely voters, Biden holds
Trump to a draw among voters 45 and older, a bloc Trump has done well among in the
past. Biden also has big advantages among younger voters (56%-38%), Black voters
(75%-14%), and college-educated voters (66%-30%). Trump’s advantage is among non-
college-educated voters (54%-37%), where he has a 17-point advantage over Biden, and
among white voters (53%-43%) and men (52%-40%).
U.S. Senate: Democrat Mark Warner has a sizeable lead over his Republican
challenger Daniel Gade among both likely voters (52% to 39%) and very likely voters
(52% to 41%). This differs from the more tightly contested race in 2014, when Warner
defeated Republican Ed Gillespie by just over 1%. Warner’s lead over Gade is built on
strong support among the traditional Democratic coalition of women, Black voters,
younger voters, and college- educated voters, but Warner also leads among
independents and voters 45 and older. Gade has a slight lead among men and white
voters and a significant lead among non-college-educated voters.
Constitutional Amendment: Virginia voters appear poised to pass the state
constitutional amendment that would change how redistricting is done, with support at
48% and opposition at 28% (24% are undecided). Support is strong among Democratic
voters, Black voters, and college-educated voters. Republican voters oppose the
amendment and independents are largely split on the question. “Considering that the
Democratic Party of Virginia opposes this amendment, there seems to be a real
disconnect with voters at the grassroots about reforming the way legislative districts are
drawn,” said Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo.
State of things: Virginia voters assess both the state of the country and the state of the
Commonwealth negatively, with 76% saying the country is headed in the wrong
direction (only 16% say right direction) and 47% saying Virginia is headed in the wrong
direction (43% say right direction). Assessments of both the country and the
Commonwealth have worsened compared to recent years. Approval of President
Trump’s job performance stands at 40%, consistent in Virginia since he took office.
Governor Northam’s job approval stands at 53%, steady for the last 12-15 months.

2
 Field Dates: September 9-21, 2020
796 Likely Virginia Voters (MOE = +/- 3.6%)

Q1: Overall, would you say things in the UNITED STATES are heading more in the right direction or the wrong
direction?

Right 16
Mixed (vol) 8
Wrong 76
Dk/ref (vol) 1

Trends: Dec. 2019 Oct. 2019 April 2019 Dec. 2018 Jan. 2018
Right 29 30 31 35 36
Mixed 16 8 11 15 11
Wrong 55 62 58 49 48
Dk/ref (vol) - 1 5 4

Q2: And how about the state…overall would you say things in the COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA are
heading more in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right 43
Mixed (vol) 7
Wrong 47
Dk/ref (vol) 2

Trends: Dec. 2019 Oct. 2019 April 2019 Dec. 2018 Jan. 2018
Right 48 50 46 64 56
Mixed 11 18 14 11 11
Wrong 41 32 40 25 28
Dk/ref (vol) 2 - 5 5 6

Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as Governor of Virginia? [IF
RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”, “DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.) PROBE ONCE
WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as Governor? IF
STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON’T KNOW]

Approve 53
Disapprove 41
Dk/ref (vol) 6

Trends: Dec. 2019 Oct. 2019 April 2019 Dec. 2018

Approve 52 51 40 59
Disapprove 36 37 49 24
Dk/ref (vol) 12 12 11 17

3
Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
[IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”, “DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.) PROBE ONCE
WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? IF
STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON’T KNOW]

Approve 41
Disapprove 56
Dk/ref (vol) 3

Trends: Dec. 2019 Oct. 2019 April 2019 Dec. 2018 Sept. 2017
Approve 42 37 44 35 35
Disapprove 55 61 54 57 58
Dk/ref (vol) 3 2 2 8 6

ENTH: And how enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the elections this fall? Would you say you
are…

College
Rep

Ind

Dem

Males

Females

White

Black

18-44

45 +

Non-

College
All

Very enthusiastic 72 74 42 76 70 75 75 70 61 81 72 73
Somewhat enthusiastic 16 13 37 17 17 16 16 19 21 13 16 17
Less enthusiastic 4 7 2 2 5 3 2 2 6 2 4 3
Not enthusiastic 7 6 7 5 8 6 6 9 10 4 7 6
Dk/Ref (vol) 1 - 12 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 -

Q7: Thinking about the election for president… if the election were held TODAY would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE: “Donald Trump the Republican” or “Joe Biden the Democrat”]?

[INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”, “DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.)

PROBE ONCE WITH: Which one are you leaning toward right now?]

All likely voters (n=796; MoE +/- 3.6)

College
Rep

Ind

Dem

Males

Females

White

Black

18-44

45 +

Non-

College
All

Donald Trump 43 92 37 1 53 35 53 12 40 46 54 30
Joe Biden 48 4 30 93 37 58 41 73 51 46 34 64
Someone else (vol) 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 2
Undecided (vol) 4 1 13 3 4 4 2 7 5 3 5 3
Dk/Ref (vol) 3 1 18 1 5 1 2 6 4 2 5 1

Very enthusiastic likely voters (Very or Somewhat Enthusiastic n=700; MoE +/- 3.9)
College
Rep

Ind

Dem

Males

Females

White

Black

18-44

45 +

Non-

College
All

Donald Trump 43 93 31 1 52 34 53 14 38 46 54 30
Joe Biden 51 4 34 95 40 61 43 75 56 47 37 66
Someone else (vol) 1 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Undecided (vol) 2 1 13 2 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 2
Dk/Ref (vol) 3 1 22 1 5 1 2 7 4 3 5 1

4
Q8: And thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in Virginia… if the election were held TODAY would you
vote for [RANDOMIZE: “Mark Warner the Democrat” or “Daniel Gade the Republican”]?

[INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”, “DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.)

PROBE ONCE WITH: Which one are you leaning toward right now?]

All likely voters (n=796; MoE +/- 3.6)

College
Rep

Ind

Dem

Males

Females

White

Black

18-44

45 +

Non-

College
All
Mark Warner 52 9 48 95 44 59 43 76 52 52 39 66
Daniel Gade 39 84 25 1 44 35 50 7 32 45 49 28
Someone else (vol) 1 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - 1
Undecided (vol) 6 6 4 4 9 4 5 11 13 2 9 4
Dk/Ref (vol) 2 - 2 - 3 1 1 5 3 1 3 1

Very enthusiastic likely voters (Very or Somewhat Enthusiastic n=700; MoE +/- 3.9)

College
Rep

Ind

Dem

Males

Females

White

Black

18-44

45 +

Non-

College
All

Mark Warner 52 7 39 95 44 59 42 79 53 51 39 67
Daniel Gade 41 89 30 1 47 35 52 9 34 46 52 41
Someone else (vol) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - 1
Undecided (vol) 5 3 27 4 6 4 5 7 9 2 6 5
Dk/Ref (vol) 2 - 3 - 3 1 1 5 3 1 3 2

Q9: Do you support or oppose amending the Virginia constitution to establish a redistricting commission made up
equally of members of the General Assembly and citizens of the Commonwealth, to draw congressional and state
legislative district lines. The new legislative lines will be subsequently voted up or down by the General Assembly,
but cannot be amended?

[INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”, “DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.)

PROBE ONCE WITH: Which way are you leaning toward right now?]
College
Rep

Ind

Dem

Males

Females

White

Black

18-44

45 +

Non-

College
All

Support 48 32 41 64 51 45 46 58 47 49 41 56
Oppose 28 42 41 12 28 27 29 24 24 30 32 22
Undecided (vol) 20 22 8 20 18 23 20 16 25 17 22 18
Dk/Ref (vol) 4 5 10 4 4 5 5 2 4 5 5 4

Q10-26 held for future release

5
Demographics Full Survey n=796 PARTY: In politics today, do you generally consider
yourself to be a Republican, a Democrat, or an
EDUC: Could you tell me the highest level of school Independent?
or college you had the opportunity to complete:
Republican 29
High school or less 46 Democrat 34
College or more 54 Independent 32
No Preference (vol) 2
HISPANIC: Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic Other Party (vol) 1
or Latino? Dk/Ref (vol) 3

Yes 3 PARTYLN
No 95
Dk/ref (vol) 2 Republican 40
Democrat 36
RACE: Do you consider yourself to be: Independent 24

White 68 AGE: (Recorded as exact year of birth)

Black or African American 21
Other 11 18-24 5
25-34 16
RELIG: What is your religious preference, are you 35-44 22
Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, another religion, 45-54 14
or no religion? 55 & older 43

Protestant 26 INCOME: And, just for statistical purposes, in which

Christian (non-specific) (vol) 26 of the following categories does your family income
Catholic 10 fall?
Jewish 1
Other 11 Under $25,000 4
None 22 $25-$49,999 11
Dk/ref (vol) 4 $50-$74,999 18
$75-$99,999 14
IDEOL: When it comes to your ideology, would you $100,000-$149,999 20
consider yourself to be a… Over $150,000 21
Dk/ref (vol) 12
Strong liberal 7
Liberal 13 CELL/LANDLINE
Moderate, leaning liberal 25
Moderate, leaning conservative 17 Cell 74
Conservative 18 Landline 26
Strong Conservative 14
Dk/ref (vol) 6 SEX: [INTERVIEWER CODE]

Male 48
Female 52

6
How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 796 interviews of registered Virginia voters who have voted in at least two
general elections in the last four years, including 163 on landline and 633 on cell phone, conducted September 9-21,
2020. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.9% at the
95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be
95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.4% and 53.6%. The margin
of error for the enthusiastic voter model (n=700) is +/- 3.6 at the 95% level of confidence. All error margins have
been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.1 in this survey. The design effect is a factor
representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due
to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub-samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling
error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The
response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 10%. Five callbacks were employed in the
fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey
Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting
process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of Virginia’s 2020
electorate.