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    Jet Blue Financial Model Autosaved

    Uploaded by

    Jack
    The document is a financial model for AirArabia that includes inputs, assumptions, and projections for revenues, expenses, cash flows, and valuation from 2014-2021. It projects EBITDA, net income, cash flows, and a terminal value to calculate enterprise value and implied stock price under various assumptions for variables like WACC and terminal growth rate.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Jet Blue Financial Model Autosaved

    Uploaded by

    Jack
    28 views8 pages
    The document is a financial model for AirArabia that includes inputs, assumptions, and projections for revenues, expenses, cash flows, and valuation from 2014-2021. It projects EBITDA, net income, cash flows, and a terminal value to calculate enterprise value and implied stock price under various assumptions for variables like WACC and terminal growth rate.

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    Jet_Blue_Financial_Model_Autosaved.xlsx

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    The document is a financial model for AirArabia that includes inputs, assumptions, and projections for revenues, expenses, cash flows, and valuation from 2014-2021. It projects EBITDA, net income, cash flows, and a terminal value to calculate enterprise value and implied stock price under various assumptions for variables like WACC and terminal growth rate.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    28 views8 pages

    Jet Blue Financial Model Autosaved

    Uploaded by

    Jack
    The document is a financial model for AirArabia that includes inputs, assumptions, and projections for revenues, expenses, cash flows, and valuation from 2014-2021. It projects EBITDA, net income, cash flows, and a terminal value to calculate enterprise value and implied stock price under various assumptions for variables like WACC and terminal growth rate.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 8

    AirArabia LBO Model in AEDm

    ###
    Base inputs
    Starting year
    Company name
    Currency
    Tax rate
    Current share price
    NOSHm
    Starting net debt 2014E

    (3)
    2011

    (2)
    2012

    (1)
    2013

    2014
    AirArabia
    AEDm
    --% taxrate
    1.38
    4,666.70 nosh
    #REF!

    -2014

    1
    2015

    2
    2016
    Sources& Uses
    Sources
    Senior A
    #REF!
    Mezz
    Equity
    Total Sources

    3
    2017

    4
    2018

    #REF!

    #REF!

    5
    2019

    6
    2020

    7
    2021
    1

    Uses
    Equity Consideration
    Net debt refinancing
    Fees
    Total Uses

    Opening
    #REF! Average
    #REF!
    Err:508
    #REF!

    AirArabia LBO Model in AEDm


    Years

    -2001

    WACC
    Terminal growth rate

    9.6%
    4.5%

    Period counter
    DCF
    EBITDA
    (less D&A)
    EBIT
    (less taxes on EBIT)
    NOPAT
    add D&A
    (less increase in WC)
    (less capex)

    2001
    37
    (10)
    27
    (9)
    18
    10
    -(234)

    FCF
    Discount factor
    DCF

    1
    2002

    2
    2003

    3
    2004

    4
    2005

    5
    2006

    6
    2007

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    2002
    98
    (18)
    80
    (27)
    53
    18
    (29.56)
    (290)

    2003
    161
    (26)
    135
    (46)
    89
    26
    (30.08)
    (328)

    2004
    217
    (36)
    181
    (62)
    120
    36
    (32.60)
    (345)

    2005
    270
    (45)
    226
    (77)
    149
    45
    (31.04)
    (310)

    2006
    328
    (54)
    274
    (93)
    181
    54
    (33.53)
    (326)

    2007
    391
    (65)
    326
    (111)
    215
    65
    (36.17)
    (342)

    (249)
    0.91
    (228)

    (243)
    0.83
    (203)

    (222)
    0.76
    (169)

    (148)
    0.69
    (102)

    (124)
    0.63
    (79)

    (98)
    0.58
    (57)

    Terminal value
    TV/2021 EBITDA
    Present value of cashflows
    Present value of TV
    Enterprise value
    Less Preferred Shares
    Less Long term Debt
    Add Cash
    Equity Value
    Number of shares
    Price per Share

    (433)
    2,044
    1,611
    (210)
    (291)
    118
    1,227
    41
    30.2305

    Enterprise Value Sensitivity


    Growth
    1,611
    7.6%
    8.6%
    4.0%
    4.3%
    4.5%
    4.8%
    5.0%

    Implied price per share


    PGR
    8.6%
    4.0%
    #VALUE!
    4.3%
    #VALUE!
    4.5%
    #VALUE!
    4.8%
    #VALUE!
    5.0%
    #VALUE!

    9.1%
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!

    7
    2008

    8
    2009

    ###
    9
    2010
    Case

    7.0

    8.0

    2008
    450
    (75)
    375
    (128)
    248
    75
    (34.15)
    (299)

    2009
    492
    (83)
    409
    (139)
    270
    83
    (24.10)
    (157)

    (11)
    0.53
    (6)

    172
    0.48
    83

    9.0
    2010
    532
    (90)
    442
    (150)
    292##
    90
    (23.08)
    (132)
    227
    0.44
    100
    4,659
    8.8x

    WACC
    9.6%

    WACC
    9.6%
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    94.59
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!

    10.6%

    11.6%

    10.1%
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!

    10.6%
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!
    #VALUE!

    2
    Mid-year di
    Full-year di

    WACC
    Risk free rate
    Pretax cost of debt
    Interetst coverage ratio
    After tax cost of debt
    Dividends of preferred stock
    Convertible Preferred Stock
    Cost of preferred stock
    Levered Beta for Southwest
    D/E ratio for SW
    Unlevered Beta
    D/E target for Jet
    Levered Beta for Jet
    Market risk premium
    Cost of equity
    D/CAP
    E/CAP
    Pr/CAP
    WACC

    5%
    10%
    $2.3
    7%
    $17.0
    210
    8%
    1.1
    0.11
    1.02
    0.35
    1.26
    5%
    11%
    24%
    58%
    18%
    9.6%

    Jet Blue
    Year
    Financial Model Assumptions
    Number of planes
    Revenue per Plane
    Expected Inflation
    Total revenues, $ in millions
    Cash Expenses

    EBITDA
    D&A per aircraft
    Net capex per incremental aircraft
    Expected inflation rate
    NWC turnover
    Tax Rate
    Number of total shares, 1000
    Long term Debt
    Cash

    $
    $

    -2001

    1
    2002

    2
    2003

    3
    2004

    4
    2005

    5
    2006

    6
    2007

    2001
    21
    $15.3
    --%

    2002
    34
    $17.6
    16%

    2003
    48
    $18.4
    4%

    2004
    62
    $19.2
    4%

    2005
    74
    $20.1
    4%

    2006
    86
    $21.0
    4%

    2007
    98
    $21.9
    4%

    320

    600

    884

    1,192

    1,485

    1,802

    2,144

    -283 $

    -502 $

    37

    98

    -723 $
    161

    0.5 $
    0.5 $
    21.3 $ 22.3 $
    --%
    5%
    9.4
    9.4
    34%
    34%
    35,100
    40,600
    291
    118

    Price/
    Share
    (1)
    AirTran
    6.6
    Alaska Air
    29.1
    America Wes 3.5
    ATA
    15.0
    Frontier
    17.0
    Ryanair
    32.1
    Southwest
    18.5
    WestJet
    15.9
    Median
    Jet Blue
    26.8

    -975 $
    217

    0.5 $
    23.5 $
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    0.6
    24.6
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    -1,474 $

    270

    328

    0.6 $
    25.9 $
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    0.6
    27.1
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    Actual for 2001

    Book Equity/
    Share
    (2)
    0.5
    32.1
    12.5
    10.8
    5.4
    5.5
    5.3
    2.8

    Book Debt/
    Share
    (3)
    4.0
    33.8
    10.2
    32.9
    0.0
    3.3
    1.8
    1.0

    5.08

    8.28
    Trailing

    AirTran
    Alaska Air
    ATA
    America West
    Frontier
    Ryanair
    Southwest
    WestJet
    Median

    $
    $

    -1,215 $

    Market to book Total Capital


    multiple
    multiple
    [1/2]
    [(1+3)/(2+3)]
    13.5
    2.4
    0.9
    1.0
    1.4
    1.1
    0.3
    0.6
    3.2
    3.2
    5.8
    4.0
    3.5
    2.9
    5.6
    4.4
    2.6

    Preferred
    Debt/Equity Equity/Share
    0.6
    1.2
    2.9
    2.2
    0.0
    0.1
    0.1
    0.1
    0.35
    6.4

    -1,753
    391

    $
    $

    0.7
    28.5
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    7
    2008

    8
    2009

    9
    2010

    2008
    108
    $22.8
    4%

    2009
    113
    $23.8
    4%

    2010
    117
    $24.9
    4%

    2,466

    2,694

    2,912

    -2,016 $
    450

    $
    $

    0.7 $
    29.9 $
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    -2,202 $ -2,380
    492
    0.7
    31.4
    5%
    9.4
    34%

    532
    $
    $

    0.8
    33.0
    5%
    9.4
    34%

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