Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 183 views

    DCF Model

    Uploaded by

    mfaisalidreis
    - The document contains financial data from 2008-2012 for metrics such as gross rentals, total costs, EBITDA, depreciation, taxes, capex, unlevered free cash flow, and net working capital. All values for these metrics from 2008-2012 are reported as 0. - A discounted cash flow model is presented to value the company using assumptions for revenue growth rates, EBITDA margins, tax rates, capex levels, and WACC. The model results in a negative enterprise value and implied share price of -$878.01. Sensitivity analyses are also presented.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    DCF Model

    Uploaded by

    mfaisalidreis
    183 views14 pages
    - The document contains financial data from 2008-2012 for metrics such as gross rentals, total costs, EBITDA, depreciation, taxes, capex, unlevered free cash flow, and net working capital. All values for these metrics from 2008-2012 are reported as 0. - A discounted cash flow model is presented to value the company using assumptions for revenue growth rates, EBITDA margins, tax rates, capex levels, and WACC. The model results in a negative enterprise value and implied share price of -$878.01. Sensitivity analyses are also presented.

    Original Description:

    Model

    Original Title

    dcf-model

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    - The document contains financial data from 2008-2012 for metrics such as gross rentals, total costs, EBITDA, depreciation, taxes, capex, unlevered free cash flow, and net working capital. All values for these metrics from 2008-2012 are reported as 0. - A discounted cash flow model is presented to value the company using assumptions for revenue growth rates, EBITDA margins, tax rates, capex levels, and WACC. The model results in a negative enterprise value and implied share price of -$878.01. Sensitivity analyses are also presented.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    183 views14 pages

    DCF Model

    Uploaded by

    mfaisalidreis
    - The document contains financial data from 2008-2012 for metrics such as gross rentals, total costs, EBITDA, depreciation, taxes, capex, unlevered free cash flow, and net working capital. All values for these metrics from 2008-2012 are reported as 0. - A discounted cash flow model is presented to value the company using assumptions for revenue growth rates, EBITDA margins, tax rates, capex levels, and WACC. The model results in a negative enterprise value and implied share price of -$878.01. Sensitivity analyses are also presented.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 14

    Actual

    (in million)

    CAGR
    (06 - 09)
    0%

    2012
    0
    0.0%

    2008
    0

    2009
    0
    0.0%

    2010
    0
    0.0%

    2011
    0
    0.0%

    Total costs
    % gross rentals

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0%

    EBITDA
    % margin

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0%

    Depreciation & Amortization:


    % gross rentals
    EBIT

    0
    0.0%
    0

    0
    0.0%
    0

    0
    0.0%
    0

    0
    0.0%
    0

    0
    #DIV/0!

    0
    #DIV/0!

    0
    #DIV/0!

    -15,357,700
    0.0%

    Increase/Decrease in NWC

    Unlevered Free Cash Flow

    -15,357,700

    Gross Rentals
    % growth

    Taxes (12%)
    Capex
    % gross rentals

    WACC
    Discount Period

    #DIV/0!

    0
    85.0%
    0
    2.5%
    0

    10.7%
    1.0

    Discount Factor

    0.90

    Present value of free cash flow


    Terminal Value
    Terminal Year Free Cash Flow
    Perpetuity Growth Rate
    Terminal Year EBITDA
    Terminal Value
    Implied Exit Multiple
    Discount Period
    Discount Factor
    Present Value of Terminal Value
    % of Enterprise Value

    0
    #DIV/0!

    -13,870,937

    1,351,800
    3.0%
    1,530,000
    18,039,075
    12.4x
    21.5
    0.1
    2,020,581
    -104%

    (in million)
    Net Working Capital
    Account receivables
    Inventory
    Prepaid expenses and other
    Total Current Assets
    % gross rentals

    2008
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0.0%

    Actual
    2009
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0.0%

    2010
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0.0%

    2011
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    Account payable
    Accrued Liabilities
    Other Current Liabilities
    Total Current Liabilities
    % gross rentals

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    Net Working Capital


    % gross rentals

    Forecast period
    2012

    DCF model
    Forecast period
    2021
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2013
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2014
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2015
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2016
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2017
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2018
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2019
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2020
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    0.82

    0.74

    0.67

    0.60

    0.54

    0.49

    0.44

    0.40

    0.36

    1,102,736

    995,982

    899,562

    812,476

    733,821

    662,781

    598,618

    540,666

    488,325

    Forecast period
    2013
    2014

    2015

    2016

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    0
    0%

    Forecast period
    2022
    2023
    1,800,000
    1,800,000
    0.0%
    0.0%

    2024
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2025
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2026
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2027
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2028
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2029
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2030
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    -178,200

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    11.0

    12.0

    13.0

    14.0

    15.0

    16.0

    17.0

    18.0

    19.0

    0.33

    0.29

    0.27

    0.24

    0.22

    0.20

    0.18

    0.16

    0.14

    441,051

    398,353

    359,789

    324,958

    293,499

    265,086

    239,423

    216,245

    195,310

    DCF model
    2031
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    2032
    1,800,000
    0.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    54,000
    -3.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    1,530,000
    85.0%

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -45000
    2.5%
    1,485,000

    -178,200

    -178,200

    0
    0.0%

    0
    0.0%

    1,351,800

    1,351,800

    20.0

    21.0

    0.13

    0.12

    176,403

    159,325

    Input
    Wacc Calculation
    Target Capital Structure (1)
    Debt to Total Capitalization
    Equity to Total Capitalization
    Debt to Equity Ratio

    29.6%
    70.4%
    44.5%

    Cost of Equity
    Risk-free rate (2)
    Market risk Premium (3)
    Levered Beta (4)
    Size Premium (5)
    Cost of Equity

    6.6%
    6.3%
    0.66
    1.7%
    12.4%

    Cost of Debt
    Cost of Debt
    Taxes
    After Tax Cost of Debt

    7.5%
    12.0%
    6.6%

    WACC

    10.7%

    (1) Obtained from Beta and Capital Structure tab


    (2) Difference between total risk premium and CBO discount rate
    (3) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook
    (4) Obtained from Beta and Capital Structure tab
    (5) Low-Cap Decile size premium based on market
    capitalization, per Ibbotson

    DCF model

    DCF model

    Terminal Value
    Discount Factor
    Present Value of Terminal Value
    % of Enterprise Value

    18,039,075
    0.11
    2,020,581
    -104%

    Enterprise value
    Less: Total debt
    Plus: Cash and Cash Equi.
    Net Debt

    -1,945,948
    6,834,176
    0
    6,834,176

    Implied Equity Value


    Outstanding shares
    Implied share price

    -8,780,124
    10,000
    -878.01

    Implied multiples
    Enterprise Value
    SALES 2010
    EBITDA 2010
    Implied EV/SALES
    Implied EV/EBITDA

    -1,945,948
    0
    0
    #DIV/0!
    #DIV/0!

    ### #######
    8.7%
    9.7%
    10.7%
    11.7%
    12.7%

    2.0%
    894,474
    -843,572
    -2,173,385
    -3,219,767
    -4,061,075

    ### #######
    12.3%
    13.3%
    14.3%
    15.3%
    16.3%

    -1.0%
    -12,104,578
    -11,964,845
    -11,825,111
    -11,685,377
    -11,545,644

    Annual rental growth %


    -0.5%
    -12,104,578
    -11,964,845
    -11,825,111
    -11,685,377
    -11,545,644

    WACC

    -3,966,529

    EBITDA %

    Output
    Enterprise value
    Present value of Free Cash Flow

    Sensitivity Analysis
    Perpetuity growth %
    2.5%
    1,188,719
    -660,836
    -2,055,482
    -3,141,382
    -4,007,685

    DCF model
    Sensitivity Analysis
    Perpetuity growth %
    3.0%
    3.5%
    1,534,587
    1,946,968
    -450,827
    -206,945
    -1,922,268
    -1,770,551
    -3,053,988
    -2,955,935
    -3,948,791
    -3,883,495

    4.0%
    2,447,090
    79,724
    -1,596,190
    -2,845,148
    -3,810,695

    Annual rental growth %


    0.0%
    0.5%
    -12,104,578 -12,104,578
    -11,964,845 -11,964,845
    -11,825,111 -11,825,111
    -11,685,377 -11,685,377
    -11,545,644 -11,545,644

    1.0%
    -12,104,578
    -11,964,845
    -11,825,111
    -11,685,377
    -11,545,644

    Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta


    Company
    Aldar Properties PJSC
    Sorouh Real Estate Development
    Qatar Real Estate Investment Co.
    RAK Properties
    Emaar Properties PJSC
    Median
    Mean

    Levered Beta
    (1)
    0.82443
    0.704
    0.7301
    0.51344
    0.6582

    Market Value of
    Debt (2)
    10153.4
    699
    1042.9
    150
    2218.6

    Market Value of
    Equity (3)
    Debt/ Equity
    74.4%
    13649
    28.3%
    2469
    62.0%
    1681
    32.2%
    466
    25.7%
    8620

    0.70
    0.69

    32.2%
    44.5%

    (1) From Bloomberg


    (2) Book Value of Debt
    (3) From Bloomberg
    (4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Levered Beta / (1 + Debt/Equity) x (1-t))

    Relevered Beta

    Target Company

    Mean Unlevered
    Beta
    0.48

    Mean Target
    Debt/ Equity
    44.5%

    Target
    Marginal
    Tax Rate
    12%

    red Beta
    Equity/ Total
    Marginal Unlevered
    Assets
    Tax Rate
    Beta (4)
    57.3%
    0%
    0.47
    77.9%
    0%
    0.55
    61.7%
    0%
    0.45
    75.6%
    0%
    0.39
    79.5%
    0%
    0.52
    75.6%
    70.4%

    Relevered
    Beta
    0.66

    0.47
    0.48

    You might also like