Towards A Dynamic Theory of Strategy
Towards A Dynamic Theory of Strategy
Towards A Dynamic Theory of Strategy
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This paper reviews the progress of the strategy field towards developing a truly dynamic
theory of strategy. It separates the theory of strategy into the causes of superior performance
at a given period in time (termed the cross-sectional problem) and the dynamic process by
which competitive positions are created (termed the longitudinal problem). The crosssectional problem is logically prior to a consideration of dynamics, and better understood.
The paper then reviews three promising streams of research that address the longitudinal
problem. These still fall short of exposing the true origins of competitive success. One
important category of these origins, the local environment in which a firm is based, is
described. Many questions remain unanswered, however, and the paper concludes with
challenges f o r future research.
INTRODUCTION
The reason why firms succeed or fail is perhaps
the central question in strategy. It has preoccupied
the strategy field since its inception four decades
ago. The causes of firm success or failure
encompass all the other questions that have been
raised in this collection of essays. It is inextricably
bound up in questions such as why firms differ,
how they behave, how they choose strategies,
and how they are managed. While much of the
work in the field has been implicitly domestic, it
has become increasingly apparent that any search
for the causes of firm success must confront the
reality of international competition, and the
striking differences in the performance of firms
in a given industry based in different nations.
Yet, the question of why firms succeed or fail
raises a still broader question. Any effort to
understand success must rest on an underlying
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This notion
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MODELS
FRAMEWORKS
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Time horizon
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Empiricul testing
A final important issue is how to test theories
of strategy empirically. Empirical testing is vital
both for frameworks and models. Testing of
models is difficult given the need to match their
assumptions. Given the myriad of relevant
variables in frameworks and the complex interactions among them over time, rigorous statistical
testing of frameworks is also difficult, to say the
least. In my own research, I pursued crosssectional econometric studies in the 1970s but
ultimately gave up as t h e complexity of the
frameworks I was developing ran ahead of the
available cross-sectional data. I was forced to
turn to large numbers of in-depth case studies
to identify significant variables, explore the
relationships among them, and cope with industry
and firm specificity in strategy choices.
The need for more and better empirical testing
will be a chronic issue in dealing with this subject.
Academic journals have traditionally not accepted
or encouraged the deep examination of case
studies, but the nature of strategy requires it.
The greater use of case studies in both books
and articles will be necessary for real progress
at this stage in the fields development.
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Cross-Sectional
Success
Attractive industry
Structure
(5 Forces)
Attractive Relative
Position
Sustainable
Competitive
Advantage
Drivers
Structural determinants of
ditferences in the cost or
buyer value of activities or
CI~OUDS of activities
Longitudinal
Figure 2.
Industry structure
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v
THREAT OF
NEW ENTRANTS
PRODUCTS OR SERVICES
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\ \
FIRM INFRASTRUCTURE
VALUE
CHAIN
INBOUND
LOGISTICS
PROCUREMENT
l-lOPERATIONS
OUTBOUND
LOGlSTlCS
MARKETING
AND SALES
VALUE
SYSTEM
CHAINS
UPSTREAM
VALUE
THE
FIRMS
VALUE
CHAIN
CHAINS
DOWNSTREAM
VALUE
1991).
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2.13
The frameworks for addressing the crosssectional problem are agnostic as to the process
by which the superior positions were attained,
and largely unaffected by it. Whether the strategy
was consciously chosen, happenstance, the result
of incremental steps, or driven by one major
decision does not itself affect the attractiveness
of the position independently of the activities
and drivers on which it rests. Similarly, the
past process by which firms accumulated their
strengths and capabilities is not, in and of itself,
decisive, The cross-sectional frameworks address
the choice of strategy given whatever array of
capabilities the firm and its rivals possess at a
point in time and can feasibly develop in the
future. The effort by some to dichotomize process
~
are
and substance is simply i n ~ 0 r r e c t . lBoth
necessary and important to understand.
The cross-sectional problem is also logically
prior. Without a rather specific understanding of
what underpins a desirable position, it is virtually
impossible to deal analytically with the process
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airlines had these as well. American's management was simply more creative.
Many strategies clearly reflect some combination of initial conditions and creative choice.
The balance between the influence of initial
conditions and acts of pure managerial choice
varies by company and industry. Yet there may
well be a tendency, for a variety of reasons to
be discussed later, to overstate the role of initial
conditions.
Lying behind all initial conditions internal to
the firm were earlier managerial choices. The
skills and market position a firm has built today
are the result of past choices about how to
configure activities and what skills to create or
acquire. Some of these choices, as Ghemawat's
(1991) work among others had emphasized,
involve hard-to-reverse commitments down certain paths (path dependency). Earlier choices,
which have led to the current pool of internal
skills and assets, are a reflection of the external
environment surrounding the firm at the time.
The earlier one pushes back in the chain of
causality, the more it seems that successive
managerial choices and initial conditions externul
to the firm govern outcomes.
The importance of managerial choice is also
highlighted by the cross-sectional problem. Whatever configuration of activities and skills a firm
has inherited may or may not be competitively
valuable. Simply having pools of skills. knowledge, or other resources is not in and of itself
a guarantee of success. They must be the
right ones. If managers can understand their
competitive environment and the sources of
competitive advantages, they can better search
creatively for favorable positions that are different
from competitors', assemble the needed skills
and assets, configure the value chain appropriately, and put in place supportive organizational
routines and a culture which reinforces the
required internal behavior. The most successful
firms are notable in employing imagination to
define a new position, or find uew value in
whatever starting position they have.
Towards a dynamic theory
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2-
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FIRM STRATEGY.
STRUCTURE AND
RIVALRY
FACTOR
CONDITIONS
\ + /
RELATED AND
SUPPORTING
INDUSTRIES
y
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am grateful to Pankaj Ghemawat, Cynthia
Montgomery, and others in the Competition and
Strategy group at Harvard for a long series of
discussions that have immensely benefitted my
thinking about these issues, and to Jay Barney,
Richard Rumelt, and Garth Saloner for their
insights while visiting. David Collis, Cynthia
Montgomery, Richard Rumelt, Elizabeth Teisberg and Dan Schendel provided helpful comments on this manuscript.
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