Westgate Attack - Nairobi Security Report September
Westgate Attack - Nairobi Security Report September
Westgate Attack - Nairobi Security Report September
INDEX Nairobi North East Coast Rift Valley Map References INSO Info Page 2 6 9 10 11 12
Issue 21
16-30 Sept 2013
COUNTRY SUMMARY
The stand-out development countrywide during the past fortnight was the spectacular attack launched by Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahedin (HSM) militants against the Westgate shopping centre in Nairobi, the largest asymmetric operation the group has ever staged inside Kenya. The incident, a Mumbai-style assault and siege operation, was the realisation of an objective held by the Somali group since Kenyan military intervention in Somalia in 2011; from that time onwards, HSM has been attempting to demonstrate to the Kenyan government and people, as well as the large foreign national presence here, that this interventionseen by the group as violating the religious and political freedom of Somaliawould come with blowback. incident governmental learning. As such, we are highly unlikely to see further such attacks even in the medium term. Instead, it is much more probable that HSM, after a period of quiet, will try to launch more of the small-scale operations for which it is best known in this country, which are easier and less risky, but allow it to demonstrate a continued presence in Kenya in spite of security force actions to deny and disrupt them.
KEY POINTS HSM attack of unprecedented scale on Westgate shopping centre in Nairobi Elevated level of HSM activity in North Eastern in wake of Nairobi attack
Evidence of this approach was already visible during the period, with a HSM attacks on police in the North Easts Mandera town shortly after the Westgate incident. Unusually for attacks on this nature in the province, HSM publicly claimed responsibility for the Mandera attack, clearly to capitalise on attention they had With more than 60 people, the majority garnered during the Nairobi siege. civilians, dead and almost 200 injured and more expected to be found during the Also in the North East, two NGO faciliongoing forensic investigationthis is the ties were attacked with small arms in sepamost serious instance of Islamist militancy rate incidents in Dadaab, although they in Kenya since the 1998 bombing of the were both attributed not to HSM but to US embassy, and is therefore a major coup armed criminals. Yet that in itself is probfor HSM. However, it is unlikely that it lematic, as part of a recent increase in the represents a decisive shift in the security willingness of non-HSM local actors to environment of Nairobi or the wider use violence to settle social and commercountry. Such high-impact acts of militan- cial grievances, particularly in relation to cy are rare for a variety of reasons, includ- the presence of non-local Kenyans. ing cost, likelihood of detection, and postThe International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO) is a registered charity in England & Wales no.1140276 and a company limited by guarantee no.7496737
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main entrances, firing coolly but randomly at civilians although subsequently allowing those who could demonstrate they were Muslims to go free. Before the first group of governmental security responders arrived, more than two hours later, many of the more than 60 fatalities (of which one was a Kenyan NGO staff member), and 175 non-fatal casualties, had already been inflicted. Many others also remained trapped inside, including staff and/or family from four NGOs, having managed to hide themselves inside shops, bathrooms or other locations in the building. And by this time, the attackers are believed to have already taken dozens of hostages.
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Absence of Forewarning
Most significantly, the attack seems to have come out of the
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Coast Province
regard to combatting this Islamist militancy in the Coast, which ultimately contributes to al Shabaabs numbers inside Somalia, is weakness in the judicial system. This is thought to be the reason why some leading Islamists have been killed rather than captured in recent years, and this fate is likely to be shared by Makaburi, once the immediate focus on the Westgate and its authors dies down. However, as in Nairobi such kinetic actions against the group is unlikely to lead to its deathperhaps instead galvanising the groups anti-state agenda.
Away from Westgate-related developments, September has seen the security forces continue their focus on drug-related activity impacting the Coast. There have been a number of arrests of criminals for drug-dealing in Kilifi, and seizure there, in Mombasa, and in Kwale, in the past six weeks. The security forces take a very intolerant approach to this sort of What such operations might mean in practice remains unclear, activity, making it worth avoiding if one is enjoying some as much of the problem that the security forces have had with coastal holiday time.
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For the past one month, cattle rustling activities have been largely concentrated in the four counties of the North Rift: West Pokot, Samburu, Baringo and Turkana. These counties also continue to register the majority of inter-communal clashes in the region, mostly revolving around cattle theft, with other conflict-prone counties such as Elgeyo Marakwet and TransNzoia progressively registering a decreasing percentage of all the incidences recorded in the region in the past one year. During the past fortnight, the three main protagonists in the conflictthe Pokot, Samburu and Turkanaeach carried out the same number of raids, at three each. All the attacks were targeted against settlements occupied by rival communities, and focused on the regions rustling-prone areas, such as Pokot North, Samburu North, Turkana South and East Baringo where different communities border with each other. However, the latest attacks dont represent a significant escalation in pastoralist conflict in the North Rift. Rather, they serve to highlight the persistent nature of the conflict in the region, as well as highlighting the emerging trend in pastoralist conflict; that of minors herding livestock being abducted or killed during such raids. As an example, the attack against Pusol village in West Pokot by the Turkana on September 17th, and the two attacks perpetrated by the Samburu at Nalingangor village and against a settlement near Baragoi town on September 28th, all together resulted in the killing of three teenage girls. A teenage Samburu boy and girl were also shot and critically injured in Baragoi Division on the 18th and 27th respectively, in attacks perpetrated by Turkana raiders.
Going forward, the current pastoralist conflict in the North Rift has not led to significant alteration of the security environment in the region, with the latest attacks largely taking place in the traditional hotspots. However, the onset of delayed dry spells will likely alter regional security dynamics, likely leading to an increase in roadside banditry as affected communities seek alternative livelihoods to augment depleting livestock numbers.
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Map References
Legend
Data sources - Administrative boundaries: OCHA; Incidents reported: INSO. Mapping - With the kind assistance of ACTED Data, designations and boundaries contained on the maps included in this report are not guaranteed to be errorfree and do not imply acceptance by INSO.
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COMMON ACRONYMS ACG - Armed Criminal Group AP - Administration Police GoK - Government of Kenya HSM - Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen IDF - Indirect Fire IO - International Organisation KPR - Kenyan Police Reserve MRC - Mombasa Republican Council NMI - Nyuki Movement for Independence RDU - Rapid Deployment Unit (Police) RTA - Road Traffic Accident TTP - Tactics, Techniques & Procedures AOG - Armed Opposition Group ATPU - Anti-Terrorism Police Unit GSU - General Service Unit (Police) IAF - Irregular Armed Forces IED - Improvised Explosive Device KDF - Kenyan Defence Forces KWS - Kenya Wildlife Service MY - Mombasa Youth NYS - National Youth Service RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade SF - Security Forces UXO - Unexploded Ordnance