Staying Safe While on Spring Break in Mexico

Originally published at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/staying-safe-spring-break-mexico-stratfor

HIGHLIGHTS

• While it is true that murders in Mexico are happening at historic rates, most involve cartel-on-cartel violence. 
• Millions of international tourists will visit Mexico this spring without incident. 
• Travelers can increase their odds of having a safe and enjoyable vacation in Mexico by following best practices.

Every year between February and April, millions of American, Canadian and European citizens arrive in Mexico for spring break vacations. Last year, Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography recorded over 1.9 million international tourists in February, over 2.3 million in March and over 1.9 million in April. Despite the record levels of homicides in Mexico in 2019, Mexican resorts are certain to once again be very busy during spring break 2020. In light of this, I'd like to provide some background on the current violence in Mexico, as well as some tips on how to stay safe.

For general tips on planning a vacation, including how to prepare your home, please read this; general tips on planning a safer spring break trip can be found here.

Violence in Mexico 

One of the building blocks of personal security is understanding the environment one is traveling to, so let's briefly examine violence in Mexico. As noted in our in our Mexico cartel forecast for 2020, a number of different areas of Mexico remain locked in protracted, bloody cartel wars, and it is these cartel wars that account for much of the violence in Mexico. States such as Guanajuato (with a murder rate of 62.8 per 100,000 inhabitants), Baja California (64.2), Chihuahua (52.2), Guerrero (52.2), Michoacan (55.6), Colima (107.5), Tamaulipas (19.2), Sonora (50.2), Quintana Roo (51.2) and Jalisco (29.4) are some of those currently seeing protracted cartel battles. These states are also home to tourist destinations such as Tijuana, Ensenada, Acapulco, Matamoros, Tampico, Puerto Penasco, Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel and Puerto Vallarta. On the positive side, Baja California Sur state, home to Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, has seen a dramatic reduction in homicides since the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) seized control of the area from the Sinaloa Cartel in 2017, and currently has a murder rate of 2.9. 

As noted above, most murders in Mexico result from cartel-on-cartel violence. It is extremely rare for a foreign tourist to be killed during a cartel confrontation, although such incidents do occasionally occur. For example, most of the violence in Quintana Roo state is between local criminals aligned with various cartel groups such as the remnants of the Gulf Cartel, Los Zetas, the Sinaloa cartel or CJNG. These cartel groups will also target security officials who they believe are aligned with their rivals, and even journalists who they believe are hurting their operations. But the vast majority of these murders occur in parts of Cancun or Playa del Carmen where local citizens live that tend to be inland from the beaches where the resorts are located. Occasionally, there is a cartel-related murder at a resort or on the beach, but these incidents normally do not target tourists. That said, tourists should be prepared to take action in case there is a shooting or other incident near their location. 

Non-Cartel Risks

Street crime poses a far greater threat to tourists. Many criminals in Mexico are heavily armed and many cartel members are also involved in other types of crime including kidnapping, which also includes express kidnapping and virtual kidnapping; robbery; carjacking; extortion; etc. These criminals do not hesitate to use violence while committing crimes. Because of this, I strongly urge travelers to Mexico to be aware of the threat and to be mentally prepared for a criminal confrontation. They should also practice good situational awareness and common sense to avoid being confronted and victimized by a criminal. It is always best to proactively avoid a potential threat. I also advise people to avoid carrying any valuable they would be unwilling to surrender to an armed criminal. (Leave the Rolex and your grandmother's engagement ring at home.) If a person is confronted by an armed criminal, I advise against resisting in cases where it is obviously a case of economic crime — your wallet or cellphone is not worth your life, or even an extended stay in the hospital. 

Statistically speaking, however, tourists in Mexico are far more likely to be injured in a traffic accident or to have another medical emergency unconnected to violence. Fire is also an underappreciated threat that kills far more people every year worldwide than terrorists or criminals. To help protect against these threats, I always advise people traveling abroad to carry a first aid kit containing items to control bleeding, as well as a smoke hood for each member of the party and a good high-intensity flashlight. More on what to pack can be found here. It is also very important to determine if your health insurance will cover you if you are injured or become sick while in Mexico. If it will not, I suggest obtaining a travel health insurance policy, as they are relatively inexpensive and can save tremendous expenses and headaches. 

As important as what to bring is what NOT to bring. Despite its prevalence of armed criminals, Mexico has very strict weapons laws. Several Americans are arrested every year for attempting to bring firearms into Mexico with them for protection while on vacation. Don't ever do this. 

ATM card skimming and shimming (i.e., stealing chip information on credit cards) in tourist areas, including the ATMs inside hotels, is also a widespread issue in Mexico. Take care using ATMs while on vacation in Mexico, even if you're in a seemingly safe resort. Even ATMs inside hotels catering to tourists have been compromised. If one must use an ATM, we recommend using one inside the secure area of a bank rather than one on the street or even in a hotel lobby. Most merchants in tourist zones accept U.S. dollars, but if you want to change money, we recommend doing so at the hotel desk, a bank or the money exchanges at the airport, preferably on the airside of the airport instead of outside the security hard line. 

Visitors should not expect Mexican law enforcement officers to behave like their U.S. counterparts. Some Mexican officials are on cartel payrolls, and others are just simply corrupt. For example, nine Mexico City police officers were recently charged for being involved in kidnappings in January 2020. Police officers will also shake down unsuspecting visitors for bribes or arrest them on minor charges and hold them in exchange for a large cash payment. Sadly, there have also been numerous reports of police assaulting and raping intoxicated female tourists.

Incidents involving tourists who have been served tainted alcohol appear to have subsided recently, but I still urge travelers to Mexico to be very careful what they drink — especially if they are on the town away from their resorts. The use of incapacitating drugs to kidnap or sexually assault a victim is a fairly common criminal ruse, so I advise against accepting a drink from a stranger, no matter if you are a male or a female. Be very careful not to leave your drink unattended for this same reason. 

The vast majority of the foreign tourists who visit Mexico this spring will have a great time without a significant problem. You can decrease your chances of being one of the unfortunate few by following the advice above as well as the following list of do's and don'ts:

• Do not drive at night. Plan to arrive at the airport in time to travel to your hotel or resort during daylight hours.
• Use only prearranged transportation between the airport and the resort or hotel.
• If at a resort, plan on staying there; refrain from going into town, particularly at night.
• If you do go into town (or anywhere off the resort property), do not accept a ride from strangers, do not go into suspicious-looking or run-down bars, do not wander away from brightly lit public places and do not wander on the beach or on the street at night.
• Avoid bars and clubs where drugs are sold.
• Stop at all roadblocks.
• Minimize what you carry with you on the trip, and do not bring anything with you that you are unwilling to have taken from you.
• If confronted by an armed person demanding your possessions, surrender them.
• Do not bring ATM cards linked to a bank account holding a large sum of money. (This can prolong an express kidnapping, as the criminals may keep you until your account is drained — and this could take a while if your account has a daily limit.)
• Do not get irresponsibly intoxicated.
• Do not urinate in public or commit other minor offenses that police can use to arrest you and potentially extort you.
• Obey traffic laws.
• Do not make yourself a tempting target by wearing expensive clothing or jewelry or flashing cash.
• Do not venture out alone, but bear in mind that being part of a group does not guarantee safety.
• Register with the U.S. "Smart Traveler" program, or with your country's equivalent.
• If you receive a virtual kidnapping phone call, do not heed demands to leave your hotel; instead, call your country's nearest embassy or consulate immediately.