I think it's a little troubling, Prince. Still. It's still 5 1/2 percent inflation. It's lower than 6.2 last month, but it's still way higher than the 4% target. So we're in the right direction, but it needs to go a little more lower, you know, before we feel like, you know, things are under control. I think what's really happening is that, you know, we've had back-to-back climate change, weather shocks. We had heat waves, we had volatile rains. Now the reservoirs are full, but the temperatures are playing truant again. We had a winter which set in a little later than was expected. So food prices haven't started that dissent, which a lot of people had thought would happen by now, and we're really struggling a little bit with that. My sense is that if we see good winter temperature over the next couple of months and winter extends a little bit because it started late, so we have all of March, which is quite cool, then we could start seeing food prices fall quite a lot. We haven't seen that yet. But the good news is that we are seeing core inflation, which is pretty low. It's at 3.7%. We are seeing oil prices, which are much lower. Than before and energy inflation is in the negative and my sense is that the central bank has enough for now to at least give the first rate cut. In February, in February, 25 basis, .25 basis points. Food inflation either ways cannot be handled through rates. It's a completely different story, right? And also food inflation is a state matter. Food is a state subject. And so do you think that there is? Fair reason to say that maybe there's been some miscalculation over here in terms of cutting rates and maybe we waited a bit too long to actually cut rates. You know, Tell me. I don't really think so. The truth is that the inflation printer last month was 6.2. It was above the upper tolerance limit of the RBI. It would have been rather irresponsible to start cutting at that point of time. Yeah, that was with food. But food is a part of inflation and RBI is a inflation targeter. Food has. Very important second round effects, if you don't let it, you know, fall, then it can seep into core very easily. One of the big reasons that core inflation is low today is because the RBI has remained so hawkish throughout the whole period. So the second round effects from food to core have actually been completely taken away, you know, by the RBI hawkishness. So it is very important for the RBI to remain hawkish at a time when food inflation is very high. So I don't think it has miscalculated so far, but I do think. At the fall that we saw, you know, in yesterday's print from 6.2 to five and a winter crop is going well, then food inflation could fall more, gives us enough room to start easing rates and we are expecting 25 basis points rate cut in February and then again in April. And there's been major underperformance on the growth front for the second quarter. And so in that balance between inflation and growth, the RBS priority now needs to be growth. And I remember in an interview with the outgoing, the previous governor, now actually I need to still get used to that. The previous governor, thus in September, he told me that there's no downside risk to growth long term. Do you agree with that view that this, this is a blip? 5.4%? I would say a part of it is a blip. I think it was a quarter where agricultural production was poor. The government wasn't spending. It was more focused on elections. But since October, you know, agricultural production has improved, government has started spending a lot. My sense is there's going to be some recovery and growth, which we'll see in the December quarter. I think that's one part, but the other part is. But I don't think we are going to go back to that 7 1/2 to 8% growth clip that we were seeing in the last two years throughout the post pandemic period. My sense is next two years, No, I don't think so. I think in the post pandemic period, India's potential growth, its ability to grow in a sustainable way is about 6 1/2 percent. The 7 1/2 percent number was the blip. You know, it was because base was very low. We had come out of the pandemic, there were many new sector professional services exports which were starting from a zero base. They were going 35% per year, but all of that is normalizing now and we are getting back to this 6 1/2 percent ballpark, which in my view is the potential growth. So the good news is we are back to potential. 6 1/2 is still good. It's going to be better than the 5.4 we got in the last quarter. But the troubling view is that it's not a 7 1/2 percent growth number. And in a way, I think that is what the equity markets are grappling with, trying to understand that India is not a 7 1/2 percent growth economy. But it's 6 1/2, which is still pretty strong in the current global backdrop. The thing is, the world is so used to seeing India grow at 7%, you don't think it could sustain at 7 as well? Well, I think it will need some hard work. It needs to see investment really increase, private sector investment, which we haven't seen much of so far. Because investment tells you a lot of things. It tells you the capacity of your economy to grow, to create jobs. I think if that rises, yes, we can go to seven. But with the current state of play, I think India is a 6 1/2. Single economy. And I wanna repeat it's not a bad number.
Head of International Business @ USV PRIVATE LIMITED | Leading Global Pharmaceutical Expansion, Growth and Revival Strategist, keen follower of global geopolitics
Indian markets have been providing impressive returns despite the global turmoil. This can be attributed to various factors such as an increase in household savings, a strong economy growth, and controlled inflation. With these factors in play, Indian markets have proven to be a profitable investment option for those looking to expand their portfolio.
Article from Times of India !
#Sensex#Investments#Indianeconomy#Growth#FinPulseWealth
As the world anticipated a #recession,
The World Bank has increased India's growth projection to 7%.
The increase was attributable to
- Ongoing capital investment in infrastructure - Improved monsoon conditions - Favorable agricultural yield.
They predicted the inflation rate to be approximately 4.5% this year.
I am confident that investing in the appropriate segments and industries can provide substantial riches.
Which sectors are you investing in?
📈 India: 100 indicators of growth – what’s the verdict?
After a period of heady stock market gains alongside impressive GDP growth clips, things seem to have cooled off a bit. A barrage of recent data releases is giving mixed messages.
To get a clean read on India’s economy, we cast our net wide to cover all areas where we get reliable, quick and monthly data. We bring together 100 indicators of growth, and map them to various sectors.
🔎 What are the findings? A majority 55% of the economy continues to grow, vs 65% a quarter ago; investment activity is holding up well, while consumption is softening.
Growth is normalising to more sustainable and still strong levels, and could become more broad-based if improved prospects for agriculture stick.
Want to know more across sectors? HSBC Research clients read our full report, India: 100 indicators of growth 👉 http://grp.hsbc/6046sKAf4#HSBCResearch#India#Economics
Economic Survey 2023-24 Key Highlights💡
📈 The Indian economy grew over 7% for the third consecutive year, driven by stable consumption and improving investment demand.
💹 Current account deficit improved to 0.7% of GDP.
🏦 Robust forex reserves covering over 10 months of imports.
🏛️ Stable banking sector with low NPAs and strong credit growth.
📉 Retail inflation dropped to 5.4%, with a positive outlook.
🚀 Significant growth in agriculture, industry, and services sectors.
🌍 Growing energy needs projected to increase 2-2.5 times by 2047.
#Economy#Growth#India#EconomicSurvey#Finance#Investment#Inflation#Banking#Energy#Agriculture#Industry#Services
All three engines of economic growth firing for India now -- infra spending, real estate upcycle and private sector capex cycle!
Will throw up many interesting investment opportunities for investors over the next 5 years.
#stockmarket#stockmarketindia
Capital Markets Specialist, Growth & Value unlocking Consultant, Senior VP - Adfactors PR, Ex-Senior Editor- Markets, Anchor at Times Network (ET NOW & ET NOW स्वदेश )
Chetan Kishore Ahya of Morgan Stanley tells us that India capex cycle now is quite similar to the one seen in 2003-2007 period. Capex is emerging at the key driver now and in this cycle investment to GDP ratio in India is likely to come back to previous peak of 39% in next few years .. so remain constructive to related sectors ..
https://lnkd.in/dSru6ivP
World Bank revises indias GDP Growth rate from 6.6 to 7 percent 🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for India's economy to 7 per cent for the current financial year (FY25), up from an earlier projection of 6.6 per cent, according to a statement released on Tuesday. This revision comes amid expectations of stronger economic performance, driven by key factors such as private consumption and investment.
The report highlights that while the economy remains resilient, achieving the ambitious goal of $1 trillion in merchandise exports by 2030 will require strategic diversification and deeper integration into global value chains.
#india#growthtrajectory#GDP#worldbank
Which sectors are immune to global events? Where should you invest with current global factors in mind? Mihir Vora believes that India’s growth trajectory, compared to major global economies, is expected to outperform. He highlights that domestic-focused sectors such as banks, NBFCs, financial services, and insurance are poised to be key drivers of the Indian economy. These sectors, being a significant part of the market, are likely to fuel market growth as well. Mihir Vora also emphasizes the resilience of the consumption theme, which is expected to remain relatively immune to both domestic and global challenges. Other investment-focused sectors, including real estate, manufacturing, and capital goods, are also set to perform well. However, he is underweight on IT, metals, and energy sectors due to their strong correlation with global prices. Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, offer a balanced outlook. Watch this excerpt for his full analysis on sectors to watch in the current market climate.
#InvestmentStrategy#MihirVora#IndiaGrowth#DomesticSectors#aiiweathersectors
Watch: https://lnkd.in/gQEQYhzJICICIDirect
Earlier this month, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased their growth forecasts for the Indian economy to 7% in 2024 from 6.6% previously.
At a time when growth concerns are prevalent across many global economies, there is a strong consensus that India will continue to see further growth in the years to come: https://bit.ly/4dp2Lnf
Fitch raises India's growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2%.
- Growth forecast raised to 7.2% from 7%.
The Global Economic Outlook 2024 of Fitch has come out, wherein growth rate has been increased to 7.2% from 7%...: TIMES NOW's Pragya Kaushika shares more details on the same
#India#FitchFy25#News#TimesNow#TimesNowNews
Macroeconomics and public policy in Asian economies
5dGreat to be on your show today to discuss all that has got India’s markets stirred up in recent days!