How many times did Aetna executives say they are cutting supplemental benefits on their earnings call? I count 6 times! Interesting to hear how the improved star ratings is a tailwind generally, but will also prevent them from cutting certain benefits on those plans. They called out dental specifically as driving high utilization, and also specified some of what they are going to be cutting. The biggest take-away that all of the market movement in MA is hammering home is that long-term medical claims at scale are not as predictable as they need to be for the current MA business model to work well with public markets. The MA plans could actually manage the cost of care down and still get hurt with the way things play out, but meanwhile when you guess incorrectly on medical trend or outlier shifts in the broader healthcare economy, there is no real way to make up the profit no matter how many providers you own. The last few years had an arms race to grow MA membership and everyone in the ecosystem played a role. Carriers in more aggressive plans, Agents asking for more aggressive comp, marketers driving more aggressive advertising and regulators with more aggressive new regulations. Right now there is a backward arms race happening at every major MA carrier, and competitive intel is being traded like gold.
TBC limits complicate everything in these situations. Hence the impending service area reductions - which, by the way, is the best kind of disruption for agents. Remember circa 2008?!?!
Bloodbath coming for many of the smaller players
They also stated very clearly that they lost $900 million on Medicare Advantage and don't know when the MLR will fall back to the mid 80s from the 90% today.
Well said
I’ve been feeling like this has been happening since 2020. Well written!
Health Finance and Actuarial | AVP @ Humana | Let’s improve the health ecosystem
7moI don’t see any reason why medical costs at scale need to be super predictable in order for MA to work with the capital markets. Investors have come to expect very stable loss ratios, but there’s no reason why that needs to be the case. P&C loss ratios are all over the place and those companies have plenty of access to the capital markets, so why should health be different? Investors should expect P&L volatility in insurance businesses over multi-year time scales and price the stock appropriately. Expecting smooth results prospectively would be a mistake.