PNG SUN’s Post

"Escalating Drone Warfare: Ukraine's Strikes and Russia's Nuclear Threats" Ukraine's drone strikes against military targets in Russia’s Oryol, Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions represent a new phase in the conflict. In retaliation, President Putin hinted at revisiting Russia’s nuclear policy if the attacks continue, a worrying development for global stability. While Russia also launched drone strikes on Kyiv, these escalating hostilities, coupled with nuclear threats, could bring the war into more dangerous territory. The situation demands urgent diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation that risks global security. #UkraineConflict #RussiaDroneStrikes #NuclearPolicy #GlobalSecurity #PutinWarning Reference: Newsweek - Russia-Ukraine War Drones Vladimir Putin Kyiv Launches Mass Drone Attack on Russia Day After Putin's Nuclear Warning https://lnkd.in/grStHrFa

https://lnkd.in/g4PzPPXA It is widely believed in the region that these were Israeli surgical air strikes — possibly conducted by F-35 stealth fighter jets — or the results of Israeli ballistic or cruise missile attacks, possibly launched from Israeli submarines operating in the Persian Gulf. There is a very real possibility now that Iran will retaliate directly, and/or order Hezbollah to fire some of its 150,000 missiles at Israel. Big question now: Is tonight’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities Israel’s only response — or is it just the beginning of many more IDF attacks.

Turkeys Erdogan has become obsessed with Netanyahu, portraying him in Turkish media as a new Hitler, that has to be stopped. “Netanyahu has reached a level that would make Hitler jealous with his genocidal methods. We are talking about Israel; which targets ambulances, hits food distribution points, and opens fire on aid convoys. Is it possible to look at what Israel has inflicted on the people of Gaza for months and see it as legitimate for Israel to bomb hospitals, kill children, oppress civilians, and condemn innocent people to hunger, thirst, and lack of medicine under various excuses?” he said in May. “Israel is now setting its sights on Lebanon and we see that Western powers behind the scenes are patting Israel on the back and even supporting them,” Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling AKP party. Prime Minister Benjamin “Netanyahu’s plans to spread the war to the region will lead to a great disaster,” he said on Saturday. Turkeys threat to invade Israel is taken as a rhetoric one. But Turkey did invade Cyprus on the pretext to protect Turkish Cypriots in July 1974. Turkey has blocked NATO-Israel cooperation over Gaza war since last October. It has ceased all trade with Israel since this May. Turkey has summited a dossier to the ICJ against Israel over alleged genocide of Palestinians. Pakistan has called for restraint and stressed the need for diplomacy to stabilize the situation. “It is now critically urgent to stabilize the situation and restore peace,” the Foreign Office said. Pakistan denies reports last Tuesday that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, Pakistan plans to supply Iran with weapons, including the Shaheen-III medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of carry an nuclear warhead with multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRV). In 2013, BBC reported using multiple sources that Saudi Arabia has funded nuclear weapons development in Pakistan, and various sources also told BBC Persian, regarding Saudi government belief that they are able to gain nuclear weapons at will. Pakistan has denied aiding Saudi Arabia in its nuclear ambitions. Irans Nuclear program started in 1957, the threat of developing nuclear weapons may be very well a useful bargaining chip. If it decides to do so, it has the expertise and everything necessary, but it could take anywhere from several months to a year or more to do so. At present in Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point of within three weeks it might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however, it would have to be processed further, and the other components of a successful weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed uranium. Iran is not known to currently possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and has signed treaties repudiating the possession of WMD including the Biological Weapons Convention, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The last 48 hours have been full of worrying news in Eurasian geopolitics. 1- RUSSIAN NUCLEAR EXERCISE Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a surprise exercise of Russia's nuclear forces today, with units of 9K720 Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, Su-24 tactical bombers and several other elements of the Russian Armed Forces in the southwest of the country, as well as in Belarus, being placed on high alert. Russian officials have stated that these exercises are the result of recent belligerent statements made by Western officials coupled with "destabilizing actions" taken by several NATO countries. 2 - CHINA THREATENS AUSTRALIAN HELICOPTER Australia accused a Chinese fighter jet of launching flares into the path of a naval helicopter last weekend over the international waters of the Yellow Sea, an action that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticized as "completely unacceptable". The Australian MH-60R Seahawk helicopter was on patrol to comply with United Nations sanctions on North Korea at the time of the incident, the Defense Ministry in Canberra said, adding that the action put the lives of the helicopter crew in danger. The Chinese jet dropped flares about 300 meters in front of the Seahawk helicopter and about 60 meters above it. The incident is the latest in a growing list of clashes in international waters between the Chinese military and other nations. 3 - RUSSIA'S BIGGEST ATTACK IN WEEKS Russian missiles and drones have attacked several energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine, causing significant damage to three Soviet-era thermal power plants and resulting in blackouts in several regions. The Ukrainian air force managed to shoot down most of the missiles and drones used in the attack. The attack damaged not only energy facilities, but also homes, public transport vehicles and a fire station, mobilizing around 350 rescuers. Due to the damage, electricity cuts were implemented in nine regions, with the possibility of extension to the entire country during peak hours. 4 - PLAN TO MURDER ZELENSKY Ukraine has detained two security officials allegedly involved in a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, which Kyiv's state security service (SBU) said it foiled. Two colonels from Ukraine's government protection unit have been accused of carrying out "subversive activities against Ukraine in exchange for financial compensation", Ukraine's Prosecutor General's office said on Tuesday. Both colonels were accused of treason; one was also accused of preparing a terrorist act. The prosecutor's office said one of the suspects received two drones and ammunition from Russia's state security service (FSB), which they intended to transfer to another accomplice to carry out an explosion. The SBU said it had "thwarted" "actively developing plans" to assassinate Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials, including SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk and the head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov.

Over the weekend, with a barrage of missiles & drones, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time (after attacking via its Hamas & Hezbollah proxies on October 7). Tonight, Israel has just retaliated with direct missile strikes on multiple Iranian cities (reportedly including cities with nuclear installations) & its proxies in Iraq & Syria. Israel & Iran have been at war for years, but a key psychological barrier has been crossed. The war has escalated from military to military hostility to direct threats against population centers. If you’re wondering if WWIII may be at hand, I’ve got bad news for you: it started a few years ago & continues to spread. Still think the pandemic was an accident? This is not just a regional conflict. Iran is China’s proxy (with a 25 year agreement); Hamas, Hezbollah, & the Houthis are Iran’s proxies. And Israel is one of America’s strongest Allies. This game can play out in a thousand ways & most of us will be blind to key details while this war rages… but it's clear what game we are playing now. God help us. And God bless America. https://lnkd.in/gMiPPQnJ

Iran Reportedly Will Launch 'Major' Attack From Iraq What Happened:  Iran will reportedly launch a "major" attack against Israel from Iraq, Axios reported on 31 October, citing Israeli intelligence sources. Iran has been signaling it would retaliate against Israel following Israel's 26 October attack that degraded Iranian air defenses, targeted missile and drone sites, and hit weapons production facilities. Although details of the Iranian plan are unclear, it would likely include a combination of drones and limited ballistic missile attacks from Shiite-backed Iraqi militias' arsenals, potentially before the 5 November US presidential election. Why It Matters:  By conducting the attack from Iraqi soil, the Iranian government will likely try to avoid direct Israeli retaliation on Iran. But while the Iraqi militias' ballistic missile arsenal is smaller than Iran's and less likely to do significant damage, Israel may still hold Iran responsible and target Iran directly in response. Israel is more likely to target Iranian energy or nuclear sites in this round of retaliation, which could expand the conflict, including to Gulf Cooperation Council energy targets. Precautionary travel disruptions ahead of the attack are likely throughout the Middle East near conflict zones.  Source: RANE Worldview

HIGH ALERT Last Thursday, we published a post predicting that Israel has decided to go after Hezbollah in Lebanon and had prepared the terrain though the pagers attack and the decapitation of the Radwan elite brigade . Today, Israel launchesd 1’100 premptive strikes destroying Hezbollah missiles and causing 492 fatalities in South Lebanon and the Beqaa valley. Many months ago we detailed how Israel would proceed with pre-emptive strikes and this is exactly what they are currently doing.. There are tens of thousands missiles launchers left spread all over the Lebanese territory and they will be targeted as will Hezbollah’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut. The all-out war against Hezbollah has indeed started… But the most worrying and most unnoticed piece of news today is the following : CHINA HAS ORDERED ALL ITS CITIZENS TO LEAVE ISRAEL This is extremely worrisome because it means that China fears a massive reaction by Iran against Israel anytime soon. Iran has been extremely quiet in the past few months and weeks in the face of the destruction of Gaza and Hamas and the killing of Haniyeh on its soil.. But at the same time, the IAA confirmed that Iran has reached the stage where it can produce nuclear weapons and there has been numerous intelligence reports of a collaboration between Russia and Iran whereby Iran would provide Russia with drones and ballistic missiles while Russia would provide tactical nuclear weapons to Iran. It is generally accepted that Iran does not have the ability to seriously harm Israel with its ballistic missiles and aviation against Israel’s iron dome protection and the support of the U.S. Military and that any attack would unleash severe retaliation attacks by Israel against Iran . However, in the range of possible scenarii, no one can exclude that Iran could decide to use tactical nuclear weapons against Israel to strike decisively and get the Israeli population to topple its Government . This, again, in war games scenarii could lead Israel to use its own nuclear arsenal in both Lebanon and against Iran. It could also happen within a more global and coordinated shift of the two main conflicts towards nucléarisation and Putin has been making increasing nuclear threats and voiced explicitely the prospects of a third world war. Geopolitical analysis is about analyzing dynamics, possibilities and probabilities without having any certainty. Today, the dynamics are all pointing to escalation, not de-escalation, the possibilities are real and established, and the probabilities are not quantifiable because of the butterfly effect. Ignoring these dynamics and possibilities could prove to be dangerous. This is why we are on High Alert and China ordering its citizens to leave Israel is a major red light flashing … Iran may be on the verge of coming to the offensive …

The #IslamicRepublic has spent decades building proxies, manufacturing ballistic missiles, and developing nuclear capabilities. However, Israel’s recent successes has challenged Iran’s strategy. “Iran hasn’t been this weak in more than two decades: almost naked defensively from air attack, its proxies unable to retaliate effectively against Israel, and its advanced weaponry unable to reliably penetrate Israeli and US air defenses. Tehran may even lack the air-defense capability to defend its nuclear-related facilities, tempting some to wonder whether now might be the moment to strike them. What all that adds up to is a potential gift and challenge for President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” explain Fred Kempe. Read Read his dispatch from Qasr Al Sarab in Abu Dhabi.

The #IslamicRepublic has spent decades building proxies, manufacturing ballistic missiles, and developing nuclear capabilities. However, Israel’s recent successes has challenged Iran’s strategy. “Iran hasn’t been this weak in more than two decades: almost naked defensively from air attack, its proxies unable to retaliate effectively against Israel, and its advanced weaponry unable to reliably penetrate Israeli and US air defenses. Tehran may even lack the air-defense capability to defend its nuclear-related facilities, tempting some to wonder whether now might be the moment to strike them. What all that adds up to is a potential gift and challenge for President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” explain Fred Kempe. Read Read his dispatch from Qasr Al Sarab in Abu Dhabi.

The #IslamicRepublic has spent decades building proxies, manufacturing ballistic missiles, and developing nuclear capabilities. However, Israel’s recent successes has challenged Iran’s strategy. “Iran hasn’t been this weak in more than two decades: almost naked defensively from air attack, its proxies unable to retaliate effectively against Israel, and its advanced weaponry unable to reliably penetrate Israeli and US air defenses. Tehran may even lack the air-defense capability to defend its nuclear-related facilities, tempting some to wonder whether now might be the moment to strike them. What all that adds up to is a potential gift and challenge for President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” explain Fred Kempe. Read Read his dispatch from Qasr Al Sarab in Abu Dhabi.