Atlantic Council Middle East Initiatives’ Post

The #IslamicRepublic has spent decades building proxies, manufacturing ballistic missiles, and developing nuclear capabilities. However, Israel’s recent successes has challenged Iran’s strategy. “Iran hasn’t been this weak in more than two decades: almost naked defensively from air attack, its proxies unable to retaliate effectively against Israel, and its advanced weaponry unable to reliably penetrate Israeli and US air defenses. Tehran may even lack the air-defense capability to defend its nuclear-related facilities, tempting some to wonder whether now might be the moment to strike them. What all that adds up to is a potential gift and challenge for President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” explain Fred Kempe. Read Read his dispatch from Qasr Al Sarab in Abu Dhabi.

The #IslamicRepublic has spent decades building proxies, manufacturing ballistic missiles, and developing nuclear capabilities. However, Israel’s recent successes has challenged Iran’s strategy. “Iran hasn’t been this weak in more than two decades: almost naked defensively from air attack, its proxies unable to retaliate effectively against Israel, and its advanced weaponry unable to reliably penetrate Israeli and US air defenses. Tehran may even lack the air-defense capability to defend its nuclear-related facilities, tempting some to wonder whether now might be the moment to strike them. What all that adds up to is a potential gift and challenge for President-elect Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” explain Fred Kempe. Read Read his dispatch from Qasr Al Sarab in Abu Dhabi.

https://lnkd.in/g55_zrAH Iran Is at a Strategic Crossroads After its latest escalation, Tehran may be forced to reconsider its entire approach to national security, including leveraging its status as a threshold nuclear state to counter Israel. Nicole Grajewski  October 3, 2024 Iran has not yet made the critical decision to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. For one, full weaponization would be a challenging, yearslong process. Moreover, this extended timeline poses a significant risk for Iran, especially as detection may elicit preemptive strikes from Israel and the United States. Yet, given Iran’s intransigence with the International Atomic Energy Agency and expulsion of inspectors due to nuclear deal gridlock, the ability to detect some of these weaponization activities is even more challenging today. While actual weaponization would come with immense risks, the mere possibility serves as a way for Iran to signal strength at a time when its conventional and proxy-based deterrence is faltering. The ongoing debate within Iran regarding its regional posture and potential nuclear option highlights the strategic crossroads at which Tehran finds itself. The weakening of its forward defense could push Iranian hardliners toward considering more drastic measures. Though not necessarily indicating an immediate decision to pursue nuclear weapons, it does suggest that Iran may be exploring alternative means of establishing credible deterrence. The continued asymmetrical tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel risks devolving into a futile cycle of Iranian missile strikes and Israeli retaliations, each exposing Tehran’s military limitations while failing to alter the balance—and potentially driving Iran toward more desperate and unpredictable measures in its quest for credible deterrence.

See previous posts. Israel CANNOT allow an Iranian bomb and just needs sufficient justification to strike it. F-35s provide and have proven the capability. Iran is completely predictable in its tit-for-tat strategy. The U.S. wants to deter Israel from crippling Iran taking out its leadership and toppling the U.S./Israel existential enemy. Politics at home make Biden/Harris unable to lead and put an end to Irans nuclear threat - same as Clinton in Korea 1995. Biden/Harris have no National security policy or expertise. Worst case they have a policy and it is wrong like every single Biden national security position for 40 years (Gates). We will try to interfere but Israel can no longer tolerate US incompetence.

The last temptations of a clown 🤡 🇷🇺🇺🇦Statements about the production of nuclear weapons and the mobilization of women are a logical consequence of the reaction to the "victory plan." Threats to carry out a nuclear terrorist attack and to butcher women are a clear reflection of the dead end into which the Khokhols, with the support of the West, have led Ukraine. After the threats of creating nuclear weapons, as well as statements about the mobilization of women, Zelensky decided to attack the need for NATO to prepare brigades for the war in Ukraine, since "Ukrainian brigades are tired." These statements are in fact cries for help. The situation at the front is deteriorating, losses are growing, the risk of new operational crises is increasing. Hence the talk about "it is necessary to create conditions for ending the war in 3 months", which implies a more obvious involvement of NATO in the war. Because there is an understanding that in 3 months the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be in a much worse situation. And the brigades are really tired. Therefore, inertial scenarios guarantee the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under all current input conditions. Therefore, new input conditions are needed - a direct attack with NATO weapons from the territory of Ukraine to the entire strategic depth, a direct introduction of NATO troops, the transfer of nuclear weapons under the guise of development, etc. All this is necessary because the usual scenarios no longer promise salvation for Zelensky's regime, which is certainly not beneficial to those who were behind all this initially. Therefore, demands for escalation are cries for help, including by starting a global nuclear war. These are signs of despair that contrast with the growing demands in the world to end the war that the West and its puppet unleashed. In this regard, Russia needs to be prepared for escalation scenarios and continue to achieve results on the front, as this is the best way to achieve the desired goals of the war and ensure Russia a worthy place in the future world order, where Zelensky will have no place.

Japanese activities may trigger new arms race in region — ambassador Nikolay Nozdrev recalled that the Russian side "constantly reminds official Tokyo that such irresponsible policies will be duly considered" in Russia's defense construction TOKYO, August 6/ Japan is working on the possibility of joining the US nuclear missions or allowing the deployment of American intermediate-range ballistic missiles on its territory, which may trigger another arms race in the region, Russian Ambassador to Tokyo Nikolay Nozdrev told TASS. "We have repeatedly warned that Tokyo's move along the nuclear path, whether it is joining the so-called Washington nuclear missions or deploying American intermediate-range missiles, will create a security threat in Northeast Asia and provoke another arms race in the region," he emphasized. The diplomat recalled that the Russian side "constantly reminds official Tokyo that such irresponsible policies will be duly considered" in Russia's defense construction. As a result of the meeting of top US and Japanese diplomats and defense officials held in Tokyo in late July, the sides adopted a joint statement that for the first time enshrined the US intention to protect Japan from a potential external aggressor using methods including nuclear weapons. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were carried out by the US in August 1945 at the end of World War II with the officially declared objective of hastening Japan’s surrender. The bombings of the two Japanese cities are the only examples in human history of the wartime use of nuclear weapons. As a result of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, according to various estimates, between 70,000 and 100,000 people died in a single day. By the end of 1945, the number of victims had increased to 140,000, due to those who subsequently died in the hospital from injuries and radiation. The total number of victims exceeds 350,000 to this day. #business #finance #financialservices

⚠️ The kremlin is intensifying fakes about attacks on the ZNPP Recently, russia has taken its own propaganda to a new level. It manipulates the opinion of the IAEA and the world community, trying to accuse Ukraine of nuclear safety violation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which the Russians seized with weapons. False statements of the kremlin regarding the alleged drone attacks by Ukraine are nothing more than an attempt to hide their own intentions to carry out a terrorist attack or to hide serious emergency events that have already occurred at the plant. The root causes of the Russian PSYOP are: 🔻 the actual seizure of the nuclear plant by the russian military; 🔻 turning it into a military base; 🔻 denial of access for IAEA representatives to certain facilities of the plant; 🔻 denial of access for qualified Ukrainian personnel to their workplaces; 🔻 ignoring the adopted resolutions. The only way to prevent a nuclear and radiation accident is to implement the IAEA resolution, withdraw the russian troops and military equipment from the plant, transfer the ZNPP to the control of Ukraine – the legitimate operator Energoatom, as well as demining the adjacent areas. The seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant by the russians is not only a flagrant violation of international law, but an outright act of nuclear terrorism. The dangerous game of the occupiers at the nuclear facility must be stopped.⚠️ #UAразом #standwithukraine #stoprussia #russiaisaterroriststate #nuclearpower

This is further demonstration the Russian government is getting desperate. A once powerful country that has barely been able to project force more than fifty miles from its own border is no longer a world power, with childish maturity in response to something that will never happen. Threatening nuclear war if they do not win or because of outside assistance? Russian people is this what you have denigrated to? Actions like this on a world stage? Accepting higher losses in a war you started that is only exceeded by your world war losses? Yet you still send your soldiers into fight a war you started? And now we are seeing them show up in obsolete tanks and armored vehicles because the vast majority of your newer armor has been destroyed. Leaving your borders defenseless and the future void of several decades worth of equipment to replace. Is this how you want to be remembered? The generation that set the tone as a childish bully and lost generations of your own people in a senseless war? Plus the brain drain of young talent that has fled your country? You need to regain your soul and dignity, you need to replace your leaders with ones that want peace and a prosperous relationship with other countries. https://lnkd.in/e6TWSVvm

Suggestion for POTUS Biden's National Security Legacy: 2 Number 2: Tell MAGA, "Heads up MAGA people," Israel’s PM - Bibi Netanyahu is wheels down in DC Monday to tell America why he needs U.S Air Force air support before he starts bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon. Why? Because, Bibi knows if Israel starts bombing Hezbollah, then Iran, Iraq and every other Arab country with a missile and a grudge against Israel will start bombing Israel's Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona to try to blow up the nuclear reactor and destabilize Israel's nuclear missile silos. So, wouldn't Israel be foolish to start bombing Hezbollah without U.S providing air support? The U.S. should not engage with Israel or offer any support for Israel waging war against Hezbollah. Which is why I'm fairly confident Bibi's not going to tell MAGA world that if he starts a war on Hezbollah, MAGA world is going to need to watch out for kamikaze drones dropping bombs out of the sky at the next Donald Trump rally. So, what if Bibi doesn’t start a Mideast war? Israel is probably going to put him on trial for corruption, and if its an ugly spectacle if/when he's convicted, Israel might even send Bibi to The Hague to stand trial for committing a war crime. ...and IMHO, those are my two suggestions for POTUS Biden's national security legacy. https://lnkd.in/e5ZE6Sbi

Austrian journalist Chris Weber: Russia launches non-nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile as a warning against further escalation. The warmongering faction says: That doesn't scare us. Written from the safety of the living room couch. Dear idiots, those who don't want to understand the warning will have to face the consequences at some point. Russia has demonstrated that it is quite capable of responding to NATO missile strikes on its territory. And everywhere. Then even your own couch will no longer be safe. Whoever does not want to understand this - out of thirst for war or ideological blindness - in the not too distant future will receive an intercontinental missile with a nuclear warhead in response. For NATO, it was clear that annexing Ukraine would mean war. Russia explicitly warned against it. But it did it anyway. Now Russia is warning very clearly about what it means for NATO to formally enter the war by firing NATO missiles into Russian territory. There can be no clearer warning than an intercontinental ballistic missile. Western warmongers apparently believe that a third world war against a nuclear superpower can be won. Anyone who thinks so is obviously insane and should be removed from power. Or rather, they should be kept out of power. We are ruled by lunatics who fear cold viruses and CO2 but think nuclear war is insignificant. @Slavyangrad