Martin Waxman, MCM, APR’s Post

My last web tool of the week is one I created for an upcoming innovation workshop I'm running. It's a list of most of the biases I could find, along with an example of how to use each one. I've already been finding it fascinating to leaf through this massive list of human irrationality. Link to the tool in the comments 👇 I thought I'd share this one after attending the Ogilvy Behavioural Science webinar last night with Dan Bennett, Rory Sutherland and their crew. They shared some of the fascinating behaviour change work they've been doing, which you can see in their latest Annual (I'm playing with your Expectiation Bias here). I've been fascinated with Behavioural Economics since Rory got me involved in an industry think tank fifteen years ago. And I've written about many of the principles in my books over the years. So I know I'm going to find this tool useful (that might be the Overconfidence Effect kicking in). When the tool loads, you're given a random bias, along with a short description and an example of how you could apply it to business. It's like a slot machine for irrational thinking - far more entertaining than it should be. You can then tap the Random Bias button to see another one. Or tap the hamburger menu on the top right to see a full list of biases (please let me know if I've missed any). What's your favourite bias? Let me know in the comments. 

I've loved books my whole life. In fact, you can make a good argument that the book - the codex - is the most successful and enduring technology ever invented. While it's true that a good communicator can boil a book's argument or plot down to a single paragraph or sentence, there's something that an unfolding argument or narrative does to our brains - and hence, our imaginations - that nothing else does. (Certainly not social media posts.) The simple act of reading can change lives, and change the world. So here's what I'm reading and talking about over the coming weeks. Each of these books follows on themes inspired by Alison Taylor and, in my judgment, in need of our best thought and engagement. First up, _Technology and the Virtues_, from Shannon Vallor. Given that technology drives much of our economy and the turbulent world Taylor describes, it's imperative that we understand how technology shapes - or misshapes - our very human selves. Vallor thinks we needs "technomoral" capacities of character uniquely suited to the age of AI. Next, Stuart L. Hart's _Beyond Shareholder Primacy_, which argues that capitalism, from its own history, can indeed reform itself into something better - in this case from the short-term orthodoxy of making quarterly profits for shareholders. So this is a confrontation with the ideology that has a stranglehold on everything in business right now. Then, _Irresistible_, from Josh Bersin. We desperately need to reimagine our organizations in more human and sustainable ways, and Bersin is one of the most thoughtful #HR leaders attempting to do this amidst so much volatility. And finally, _Pax Economica_: a history on the - shocker - "left-wing" origins of free market trade from University of Exeter professor Marc-William Palen. Take that, Milton Friedman. Beware the historians. What are you reading? And what should I add to my reading list? #capitalism #virtueethics #AI #organizationaldevelopment #fiduciaryduty #freetrade

"Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment." In my late 20s and early 30s, I was fortunate to meet someone who became a great mentor to me. He's now retired, living with his wife and two dogs on a farm in Washington. With incredible views of Mt. Rainier, he spends his days making brick oven pizzas from fresh ingredients. Yup, he won. I've been thinking about him a lot lately bc so many of the nuggets of wisdom he shared have proven to be spot on. Recently, as AI has been spreading rapidly, I'm reminded of something he said. Coupled with a challenging experience I had later in my career, I believe this insight might help others avoid similar mistakes. About eight years ago, I inherited a project and a team working on a massive migration for a Fortune 50 company. We were redesigning two large websites and migrating them to entirely new CMSs. If you know, you know, this was a huge undertaking. The agency's mistake was applying a kind of "move fast and break things" or "launch, learn, iterate" approach to a client organization that was NOT accustomed to such a freewheeling, frenzied method. They resisted the process at nearly every turn. Simply put, I failed to recognize and adjust to the fact that our process was not working for our client's culture. Why am I bringing this up? Because I believe that implementing AI into organizations at scale must happen quickly, but maybe others will benefit and learn from my past mistake, as my mentor advised. The "good judgment" I now share comes from the experience gained from a "bad judgment" eight years ago. ASK QUESTIONS! LEARN about your client's organization! And just as importantly, speak with the people whose jobs might be materially affected by the adoption and implementation of GenAI tools and applications. Before a keystroke of code is written, try to understand how what you're proposing and doing will be accepted culturally. Chances are that if you're feeling like there might be a few problem areas, you're likely right and should plan accordingly. I'm also reminded of Dr. Ian Malcolm's words to John Hammond after the baby raptor hatched in the lab at Jurassic Park – “Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

https://lnkd.in/dCyddpqK In a time where information is abundant and often overwhelming, critical thinking stands out as a vital tool for discerning fact from fiction and making sound decisions based on evidence and logic. I am thrilled to share that I have recently completed the "Critical Thinking and Decision Making" course through Economist Education. In today's rapidly changing world, the ability to think critically is more crucial than ever. This course has equipped me with the skills to analyse complex problems, make informed decisions, and approach challenges with a strategic mindset. This achievement not only enhances my professional skill set but also reaffirms my commitment to continuous learning and personal growth. I am excited to apply these newfound skills in my career and contribute to innovative and effective problem-solving within my field.

📚🧠 Beware the Trap of Oversimplification "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." – Albert Einstein This insightful quote from Einstein underscores the delicate balance we must strike between simplification and preserving essential complexity. While simplification is valuable for understanding and communication, we must be cautious not to oversimplify to the point of losing essential complexity and depth. 🌊 In today's fast-paced world, we're drowning in bite-sized information. 🤔 But is this 'snackable' content nourishing our minds or leaving us intellectually malnourished, hindering our ability to drive meaningful innovation? 💡 Reality Check 💡 Innovation isn't born from skimming the surface but from deep understanding and continuous learning 🧪 Theory of Relativity 🌐 The Internet ✨ AI ⚠️The Danger of Oversimplification - Quick-fix content lacks substance and nuance - Bullet points strip away crucial details - Surface-level knowledge rarely leads to innovation 🚀 The Power of Deep Understanding - Fosters genuine learning and breakthrough ideas - Enables better problem-solving and decision-making - Builds a strong foundation for continuous growth 🔬 How to Cultivate Deeper Knowledge 1. Dedicate time for in-depth reading and research 2. Engage in focused discussions with industry experts 3. Practice applying concepts in real-world scenarios 4. Seek out diverse perspectives on complex topics 💎 The Key Takeaway There's a time and place for simplification, but true excellence and innovation come from deep understanding. Let's challenge ourselves to look beyond the surface and enrich our knowledge, contributing to the collective wisdom of our fields. Your turn: What strategies do you use to balance simplicity and depth in your professional learning? Share your experiences! #ContinuousLearning #ProfessionalDevelopment #DeepKnowledge #InnovationMindset #LifelongLearning #ExpertiseBuilding #KnowledgeManagement

I had the pleasure of attending the Corporate Research Forum (CRF) event, a Systems Thinking Approach to Organisational Change earlier this week, led by Beth Gunderson. Two days of insights, provocations, and a helpful reminder that sometimes slowing down is the fastest way forward. My key points-to-ponder: ⏱ vs. 🌦 Recognising if the problem we are trying to solve is complicated (like a watch) or complex (like the weather). Especially relevant today as we try to understand the implications of generative AI, a technology which embodies complexity through its emergent properties. Applying what we know about solving complicated problems in a world of complexity is a recipe for frustration and fatigue. ⬅ ➡ The phrase 'polarity thinking' is often thrown around and risks creating frustration through abstraction. Reframe challenges, like the global vs. local organisational tension, as 'dilemmas to manage' rather than 'problems to solve'. 🗺 Understand the big picture and challenge ourselves to anticipate second order consequences. Engage widely, consider an issue from multiple perspectives, and be wary of short term symptomatic fixes. Would love to hear thoughts from others. Have you encountered a situation where applying systems thinking principles has helped you be more effective? #change #systemsthinking #culturetransformation

What is NOT critical thinking, a good post on Substack by John Droz: According to "...Poe AI: Claude-3.5-Sonnet..." “The opposite of Critical Thinking could be described in several ways, depending on the context and specific aspects of Critical Thinking being considered. Some possible opposites or contrasts to Critical Thinking include: Uncritical Thinking: Accepting information or ideas without questioning or analyzing them. Gullibility: Being easily persuaded or deceived, lacking skepticism. Dogmatism: Adhering rigidly to preconceived notions or beliefs without considering alternative viewpoints. Emotional reasoning: Basing conclusions solely on feelings rather than logic and evidence. Impulsive Thinking: Making quick judgments without careful consideration of facts and consequences. Confirmation Bias: Seeking out only information that supports pre-existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. Groupthink: Conforming to popular opinion without individual critical analysis. Magical Thinking: Believing in unnatural causality or disregarding logic and evidence in favor of wishful thinking. Fallacious Reasoning: Relying on logical fallacies or invalid arguments to draw conclusions. Closed-mindedness: Refusing to consider new ideas or perspectives that challenge existing beliefs." https://lnkd.in/e2M7K8yf

𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙄𝘽𝙈 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙛𝙤𝙧 '𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙖 𝙨𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙨' 𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚. We’re data scientists, anthropologists, designers, AI pioneers, and so much more. We’re not scientists, but each one of us is armed with unique expertise, some of us with PhDs, patents to our name, but we’re driven by a scientific approach. But here’s the thing: Some of us don’t have “𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁” after our title. What connects us? The pursuit of evidence. The hunger for results. A culture of solutions that will transform industries. At IBM Consulting we observe, experiment, test and iterate. Built on science, we don’t roll our own AI models; we take the latest AI and scale better outcomes faster through industries. 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘂𝘀 𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁: 1. With our platforms, we embed knowledge, democratizing expertise. 2. We enable through technology – to enable, not to replace human insight 3. We’re not just working together to deliver a slide deck, but partnering daily to solve real problems together. 𝗜𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱: A team as diverse as the problems we solve, embedded in a global consultancy within a tech powerhouse, powered by AI and propelled by science. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘐𝘉𝘔 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. Our DNA is what drives us into labs and out into the field, and into the air. We’re not a consultancy. We are your strategic partner in making science a tool for action. 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗹𝗱, 𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀? https://lnkd.in/e7WmrAi8 #ScienceOfConsulting #InnovationLeadership #TechTransformation #FutureOfWork #IBM

Time for another AI powered book summary (based on my own reading and summary): The Tyranny of Metrics: Why Not Everything That Counts Can Be Measured My own summary: Navigating a complex world by (only) relying on metrics is dangerous. Reach out if you want to commonly figure out what can be done instead. 📊 In today's data-driven world, metrics rule many aspects of business and society. But according to Jerry Z. Muller, our obsession with measurement often does more harm than good. Here’s why relying too heavily on metrics can lead to unintended consequences. 🎯 The Limits of Metrics Metrics are meant to guide decisions, but when they become the sole focus, we risk prioritizing numbers over real outcomes. Muller argues that metrics can’t always capture the complexity of human performance and creativity. 🔄 Goodhart’s Law The book highlights a key principle: Goodhart's Law—"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." This means that once we tie rewards to certain metrics, people will game the system, focusing on hitting numbers rather than creating real value. ⚠️ Perverse Incentives From education to healthcare to business, Muller shows how an over-reliance on metrics can create perverse incentives. Employees may cut corners, manipulate data, or focus on short-term gains, ultimately undermining long-term success. 🔍 The Distortion of Goals When metrics become the primary measure of success, organizations can lose sight of their true mission. Muller reminds us that numbers should serve as tools for insight—not as ends in themselves. 🤔 Balancing Metrics with Judgment The solution isn’t to abandon metrics, but to balance them with human judgment. Critical thinking, experience, and context are essential for making informed decisions that go beyond the data. Takeaway: Metrics matter—but they’re not everything. The key is to use them as guides, not the final word. Success comes from integrating metrics with judgment, experience, and a broader understanding of what truly drives impact. #complexity #Leadership #Metrics #DataDriven #BusinessStrategy #GoodhartsLaw #DecisionMaking #CriticalThinking #TheTyrannyOfMetrics

"Reason must approach nature with the view, indeed, of receiving information from it, not, however, in the character of a pupil, but in that of a judge." - Immanuel Kant In our data-driven world, Kant's perspective on reason and nature offers a powerful lens for decision-making. Let's unpack this: 1. Active engagement: Reason isn't passive. How are you actively seeking information in your field? 2. Critical thinking: We're not just pupils absorbing data, but judges evaluating it. How do you challenge the information you receive? 3. Balanced approach: While we learn from data ("nature"), we also apply our judgment. How do you balance data-driven decisions with intuition and experience? 4. Innovation potential: This approach can lead to breakthroughs. Can you recall a time when questioning accepted "facts" led to innovation in your work? In an age of AI and big data, Kant reminds us of the crucial role human reason plays in interpreting and applying information. Question for my network: How do you maintain a "judge's" perspective when faced with an overwhelming amount of data or information in your industry? #CriticalThinking #DataDrivenDecisions #Leadership #Innovation #Philosophy