Marco Guedes’ Post

FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON VISITS BRAZIL TO ANNOUNCE INVESTMENTS IN THE RAINFOREST AND TO LAUNCH A SUBMARINE INTO THE SEA French President Macron is on a visit to Brazil, between 26 and 28 March 2024. In his first stop, Macron announced 1 billion euros in investments to protect the Rainforest. With Brazilian President Lula, Macron decorated Indian Raoni with the Légion d´Honneur. After one day in Belém, macron will go to Sepetiba, in Rio de Janeiro, to launch the third submarine entirely built in Brazil, with French Scorpene class technology. Despite being responsible for sinking the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Mercosul last year, for defending French farmers' interests, Macron knows how to profit out of the dazzled Brazilian President Lula da Silva. Biting and blowing, Macron takes what he wants for France´s benefit. With interests in the Amazon region, since the XVIII century, and walking around in Brazil like no other European country, with typical 'parlez vous' diplomacy, France wisely pushed the other European countries out of Brazil. Losing ground in Africa for Russia, FRA needs sources of natural resources and Brazil is the solution. As a country with a corrupt ruling elite and poorly educated people, easy to manipulate as in Africa, Brazil is the perfect target. Selling promises of (already obsolete) technological cooperation, France gained terrain in Brazil, to block its threat to French farmers as well as to sell its goods and military equipment (radars, airfighters, submarines) to the Brazilians. Europe has turned its attention to the War in Ukraine, the perfect timing for the move to Brazil. Lula da Silva thinks they are both friends and welcomes the money. In so doing, the current French NGOs and enterprises will stay around to suck whatever they can, before the Chinese do it. Are the other EU partners noticing this clever French move? #macroninbrazil2024 #g20 #frenchagendainamazonia #francenbrazil #lulanmacron #brazilsubmarine2024 #francenaturalresourcesbrazil #frenchchessinbrazil #newcolonialism #macronhoneypottslula #lulaisadumb #lulaisadazzledone #lulaisasucker #macronplayedEU

On the occasion of the state visit to Brazil by the President of the People's Republic of China, H.E. Xi Jinping, on November 20, 2024, 37 bilateral acts adopted between the two countries were signed and announced, in the areas of agriculture, trade, investment, infrastructure, industry, energy, mining, finance, science and technology, communications, sustainable development, tourism, health, education, culture and sports. Two fundamental agreements solidify and deepen relations between Brazil and China, whose impact goes far beyond bilateral relations, having huge potential for global geopolitics and the construction of a more just and equitable Shared Future: Joint Declaration between the Federative Republic of Brazil and the People's Republic of China on the Joint Formation of the China-Brazil Community of Shared Future for a More Just World and a More Sustainable Planet; Cooperation Plan of the Government of the Federative Republic of Brazil and the Government of the People's Republic of China to establish synergies between the Growth Acceleration Program, the New Industry Brazil Plan, the Ecological Transformation Plan, the South American Integration Routes Program, and the Belt and Road Initiative. In the field of sports, it is worth highlighting the importance of the Memorandum of Understanding on Sports Cooperation between the Ministry of Sports of the Federative Republic of Brazil and the General Administration of Sports of the People's Republic of China, in which the two countries commit to strive to develop sports exchanges and cooperation based on mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit. In addition, exchanges and cooperation between sports experts in the areas of competitive sports, sports for all, sports science and medicine are encouraged, as well as exchanges and cooperation between national sports associations. It is sports diplomacy as a bridge that connects and brings Brazil and China even closer together.

Hello, About the legal régime governing the Taiwan Strait, here is a link to an article from a French blog concerning military affairs, “opex360” propagating what well might be considered disinformation about the PRC’s position. The article is being promoted on google’s news feed. In English, the title of the article means “China warns the German Navy against transiting of one of its frigates through the Taiwan Strait”. Below is the actual complete statement of the PRC MFA Spokesperson. This sentence is left out of the opex360 account: "China respects countries’ right to navigation in relevant waters in accordance with China’s laws and international law, including UNCLOS". Further, the PRC did not warn against the transiting of the ships through the Taiwan Strait, it warned against “provocation under the pretext of freedom of navigation”. The PRC does not claim “sovereingty” over the Taiwan Strait, it claims that the Strait falls within its Exclusive Economic Zone and, under UNCLOS, the PRC therefore enjoys over the ZEE what are called “sovereign rights”, that do not amount to full sovereignty, such as exercised in its territorial and internal waters. Daniel See also: My article "Le régime juridique applicable au Détroit de Taïwan", https://lnkd.in/eDMe9bxG. Opex360 article: « La Chine met en garde la marine allemande contre le transit de l’une de ses frégates dans le détroit de Taïwan » https://lnkd.in/eUS4A666 PRC MFA – Press conference, September 9, 2024 Question DPA: According to German media report, two German military vessels will transit through the Taiwan Strait in mid-September. What is the Foreign Ministry’s comment? Mao Ning: “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. We made our position clear on similar questions. The waters of the Taiwan Strait, from both shores toward the middle of the Strait, are China’s internal waters, then territorial sea, then contiguous zone, and then exclusive economic zone. China respects countries’ right to navigation in relevant waters in accordance with China’s laws and international law, including UNCLOS. But we firmly oppose any act of provocation under the pretext of freedom of navigation by relevant countries that harms China’s sovereignty and security.” https://lnkd.in/et-WHjpY

The main points of the interview I gave to Expresso about the defence agreement between #Russia and #SãoToméandPríncipe (behind paywall): Yes, the #CPLP is Putin's next target in Africa. Some countries are at the moment easier catches than others (namely #GuineaBissau and #Mozambique). It will depend in a great part on the specific histories, memories and strategic imperatives of those countries. STP's government thus expresses its grievances towards their traditional partners. #Portugal has been active, but not effective enough on the archipelago. It's for the EU, Portugal, France, the US to step up to the challenge and get serious about a healthier, truly balanced relationship with those countries. One not only centered around Western concerns. There have been mixed signals so far. Ultimately, this revolves around a necessary change in mentalities from Western decision makers. The ball is now in the court of Russia's competitors (including China, which is also losing ground in this affair).

Interesting article. Clearly Belgium needs to wise up.

Towards a new era of industrial sovereignty in Morocco.

#GuineaBissau special forces to be trained in #Chechnya The Portuguese-speaking country has a security agreement with #Russia since 2019. The decision was taken as Guinea-Bissau's president Umaro Sissoco Embaló visited Moscow and Grozny. In Moscow, he stated his country was Russia's "permanent ally" and "reliable partner". This comes on the heels of Russia writing off nearly $27 million, equivalent of 80% of Guinea-Bissau's debt. The #CPLP and #Portugal are currently worried about Russia's diplomatic offensive in Portuguese-speaking African countries (#PALOP). I have stated recently for Expresso that the country was one of Russia's most obvious next targets within PALOP. This should not be taken at face value however. Like recently in the case of #SãoTomé, smaller, weakened African countries, faced with inner and outside threats to their security and other concerns, this rapprochement only signifies that Guinea-Bissau is trying its hand at multivectorial diplomacy, trying to gain leverage vis-à-vis other partners. It could, naturally, step into Putin's orbit willingly. There is a will both in Bissau and Moscow for ties to strengthen. But the ball is now in the West's (and particularly Portugal's) court to address Guinea's concerns and agency. Embaló visited Kyiv in October 2022. In a similar way to his current praise of all the support received from the USSR, he then underlined quite close historical relations. He expressed his shock at Russian aggression and its visible consequences. He also called #Ukraine a "strategic partner".

“Milei’s rapprochement with Zelensky is unlikely to be a game-changer for Latin America’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war because Argentina is not an important geopolitical actor and Milei’s primary concern is stabilizing the economy. Besides, it would be hard to reach a consensus position on this issue in Latin America; Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is unlikely to support any action that could undermine relations with Russia.” Julia Thomson and I examine Latin America’s position on Russia-Ukraine in this DW article. 

#BijuPatnaik 1. #CourageInAction - Symbolizing Biju Patnaik's bravery in rescuing the Indonesian PM and fighting against Hitler's forces, inspiring others to take bold action. 2. #GlobalCitizenHonored - Representing the honorary citizenship awards from the Soviet Union and Indonesia, highlighting Biju Patnaik's contributions to international relations and diplomacy. 3. #FlightToFreedom - Commemorating Biju Patnaik's daring flights to transport soldiers and rescue the Indonesian PM, embodying the spirit of freedom and liberation. 4. #LeadershipInspires - Embodying Biju Patnaik's leadership as a Chief Minister and his influence on global events, motivating others to lead with vision and courage. 5. #LegacyOfBravery - Celebrating Biju Patnaik's remarkable life and legacy, inspiring future generations to stand up for what is right and fight for freedom and dignity.

The main points of the interview I gave to Expresso about the Portuguese-speaking African countries (#PALOP) and the Russian invasion of #Ukraine (behind paywall) (#Angola, #CapeVerde, #EquatorialGuinea, #GuineaBissau, #Mozambique, #SãoToméandPríncipe) As the title states, Angola stands to benefit the most, as #EU countries are looking for alternate energy suppliers. However, the most immediate consequence has been the challenge to food security presented by the blockade of the Black Sea. This has been a major tool for Ukrainian policy through the "Grain from Ukraine" initiative. Mozambique is one of the main recipients. Ukraine and #Russia are both vying for influence - including in the information space - and are getting different results depending on histories, memories, strategic imperatives in different PALOP countries. Angola and Cape Verde are openly getting closer to the West as a result of inner policy concerns, but Russia has friendly ties with most countries of the region, ties those countries do not rush to strain. Those ties have been helped by recent Russian efforts at strengthening its influence on the continent and getting rid of Western competitors. At the same time, upholding of the #UN charter is of paramount concern for Africa. All of those countries have condemned the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity - albeit vocalizing this condemnation more or less openly. Only Cape Verde and São Tomé-and-Príncipe have consistently supported Ukraine at the UN General Assembly. None however have voted in favour of the removal of Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. (Cape Verde has also been the first African country to confirm its participation to Ukraine's peace summit, to be held shortly) While Russian influence in Angola is indeed waning - although not as a direct consequence of the war - and Ukrainian efforts have been positively received in several countries, the war has rather been an incentive for several PALOP countries to try their hand at multivectorial diplomacy. Such is the case of Equatorial Guinea (that signed an agreement with Belarus last December) or São Tomé (which recently signed a defence agreement with Russia). Those agreements should not be taken as a sign that these nations are allying and aligning with Russia. Travels on the continent, meetings with African heads of state, opening of new embassies will not be enough to sway PALOP/African countries one way or another. Of primary importance is to address African concerns and adapt to African agency. A fact that #Portugal has failed to learn so far, if we are to believe its recent reaction to the Russia-São Tomé deal. #CPLP