Daniel Arthur Laprès’ Post

A recent incident at Sabina (Escoda) Shoal has escalated tensions between China and the Philippines. On August 31, 2024, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel deliberately rammed the Philippine Coast Guard's BRP Teresa Magbanua multiple times. The BRP Teresa Magbanua had been stationed there to assert Philippine sovereignty over the area, which lies within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The Chinese action, which also involved tugboats likely meant to remove the Philippine vessel, reflects China's aggressive stance in the South China Sea, aiming to assert control over the disputed shoal. The Philippines condemned the attack as illegal and unprovoked, highlighting that China’s presence in the shoal violates international law, including the 2016 arbitral ruling on the South China Sea. The United States also condemned the ramming, calling it a violation of international law and reaffirming its support for the Philippines in upholding international law. #maritimesecurity https://lnkd.in/eUKd8Zqi

https://lnkd.in/g2pXYBBt Interesting Logistical case. The Philipines' use of Assertive transparency of their position on the Chinese Coast Guard and their actions against Filipino vessels during last month's routine resupply mission that seriously injured a Filipino sailor,  interesting the national opinion 180 switch. The Bilateral treaty that the Island nation my request USN assistance. We should be preared for increased presence. In my opinion descalating now will not help the Philipines, they are not truly prepared and need to maintain momentum. The PRC now flexing CG and war ships its interesting times.The PLA navy will likely need to prepare their #Logistics at theartificial island where China built a naval base in the 1990s. Mischief Reef, 22 nautical miles (40km) away. What capabilities will PLN deploy. Meanwhile the Vietnamese are battling Chinese over bradley Islands and Vietnamese Economic Zone. Interesting times.

The United States and key allies urge China to stop aggressive actions in the South China Sea, as tensions escalate, particularly between China and the Philippines. The call for adherence to a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and the strengthening of security alliances are emphasized in response to confrontations in the disputed waters. The incident at the Second Thomas Shoal on June 17 involving Chinese coast guard personnel and Philippine navy vessels is highlighted as the latest in a series of high-seas confrontations. The United States and its allies continue to push for China's compliance with international rules and norms, despite China's opposition to alliance-building efforts. The forum commemorated the 2016 ruling by an arbitration panel in The Hague, Netherlands that invalidated China's expansive claims in the South China Sea.razil . #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gE77N56N

Maritime Security Bulletin and Advisory Re: The Vietnamese Government Has Accused The Chinese Coast Guard of Attacking its Fisherman in the South China Sea. Issued by Sanborn Analytics   Contact: [email protected]   Phone: (+1) (617) 539-6114   Media Credit: Maritime-Executive Date: October 4th, 2024 Incident Overview:   On Friday, October 4th, 2024, the government of Vietnam accused China of responsibility for a violent assault on 10 Vietnamese fishermen near the Paracel Islands, a disputed region in the South China Sea occupied by China since the 1970s. Vietnam's foreign ministry condemned the actions of Chinese law enforcement personnel, accusing them of "seriously violating Vietnam's sovereignty" and escalating tensions in the area. The incident occurred on Thursday, October 3rd, 2024 when Vietnamese fishermen operating near the Paracels were reportedly boarded and beaten by personnel from two Chinese government vessels, Sansha Zhifa 101 and Sansha Zhifa 301. The attack resulted in severe injuries to the crew, with several fishermen requiring immediate medical attention upon returning to Vietnam. China's foreign ministry has denied these claims, stating that the Vietnamese vessel was operating illegally in Chinese waters and that the response from Chinese personnel was "professional and restrained." Security Implications:    This incident highlights ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, particularly around the Paracel Islands. Despite diplomatic relations between Vietnam and China, disputes over maritime boundaries and resource rights continue to create flashpoints that could impact the region's commercial shipping and fishing activities. Advisory:    Maritime shipping companies and naval forces operating in the South China Sea, particularly near disputed areas such as the Paracel Islands, are advised to remain vigilant. Chinese law enforcement operations in the region may become more aggressive, and confrontations with foreign vessels could escalate. Shipping operators should monitor local advisories and communicate with coastal authorities to avoid contested areas. Sanborn Analytics continues to monitor the situation and will provide updates as more information becomes available. #maritimesecurity #china #vietnam #southchinasea #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity #asean #southchinasea #asia https://lnkd.in/ewkCnacR

#China is laying the legal groundwork to seize #Taiwan Deterring a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan should be a high priority for the incoming Trump administration. China has long claimed Taiwan as its own and insisted that unification is a historical inevitability. The People’s Liberation Army recently ringed Taiwan with a major military and Coast Guard exercise to demonstrate its sovereignty claim and to warn Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te against pursuing independence. Such military operations are designed to intimidate the people of Taiwan. Ever since former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited the island in August 2022, Taiwan has faced unrelenting pressure from Chinese military operations. At the same time, Beijing has stepped up its political campaign through the U.N. and in its diplomatic relations to seek political acceptance for its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. Even as the U.S. and many of its allies criticize these Chinese actions, they often fail to grasp the strategy behind them: Beijing is laying the legal groundwork to use force against Taiwan eventually. During China’s display of military power in the Taiwan Strait last month, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that for the first time the Chinese Coast Guard — an element of its armed forces — “conducted law enforcement patrols in the waters surrounding Taiwan.” To challenge Taiwan’s authority to control the waters around its territory, China sent three Coast Guard flotillas to conduct what it referred to as “a practical action to lawfully enforce control over Taiwan island in accordance with the one China principle.” These were the kind of law enforcement exercises that only Taiwan’s Coast Guard normally has the right to undertake, such as boarding and inspecting foreign vessels. The intent was to signal clearly China’s claim to sovereignty over the island. A likely precursor to any use of force by Beijing will be a public assertion of sovereignty over Taiwan. By encircling the island with its law enforcement patrols and publicizing those patrols from the Ministry of National Defense, China essentially announced to the world that its campaign to control the island of Taiwan has moved to a new and more dangerous phase. Beijing has long claimed that there is one China, Taiwan is a part of China and the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government of all of China. This is Beijing’s so-called “One China principle,” which the U.S. has consistently refused to endorse. American policy since 1950 has been that the sovereign status of Taiwan is undetermined, though it has shrouded the policy in ambiguous diplomatic language meant to smooth over differences and allow the two countries to develop stable relations. Further, American policy insists that the eventual resolution of sovereignty should be left to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to peacefully decide without coercion or the threat of force.

China exercising its plans for expansion

The question now is how Indonesia’s evolving stance might manifest in practice. It could adopt a more assertive posture, increasing naval patrols or emulating the island-building strategies of Vietnam and China. Alternatively, Jakarta might opt for a diplomatic course, leveraging its influence to push for renewed international arbitration over the region’s disputed claims. Read my latest for the International Policy Digest.

China has accused a Philippine coast guard ship of deliberately colliding with a Chinese vessel in the South China Sea, marking an escalation in tensions over territorial disputes. The incident occurred on a Saturday, with Chinese spokesperson Liu Dejun stating that the Philippine ship, hull number 9701, maneuvered in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, resulting in a collision with Chinese ship 5205. China claims its vessel was operating within regulations but provided no details on the incident. The growing assertiveness of China in claiming rights over the entire South China Sea exacerbates confrontations, especially with the Philippines, which has a treaty alliance with the US. US Indo-Pacific Command indicated openness to discussions about protecting Philippine vessels amid increasing hostilities. Recent incidents near disputed territories have resulted in injuries to Filipino sailors and damage to their vessels, prompting inquiries regarding the Philippines' alliance with the US. Additionally, Japan has lodged protests against China's survey activities in its waters and intrusions by Chinese military aircraft, reflecting broader regional tensions. #AsiaRisk #SouthChinaSea #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gd6Z_72N

🚨 🚨 EU Sanctions: Excellent FRANCE 24 piece by Sébastian Seibt on a recent GC of Court of Justice of the European Union ruling annulling (parts of) the sanctions listing of Russian oligarchs Petr Aven and Mikhail Fridman. Together with Dr Clara PORTELA I provided some input to the article: 1) My brief reading of the ruling is that the General Court affirms that it is not sufficient to demonstrate proximity to Vladimir Putin to infer that Aven and Friedman supported or profited from the war in Ukraine. 2) In addition I pointed out that it is not unreasonable for the GC to demand strong evidence given that the sanctions against Aven and Friedman implying freeze of assets and travel restrictions are fairly draconian (quasi-criminal) sanctions. 3) Furthermore, it is only a first instance decision by the General Court. The Council can appeal the ruling & it is only once this appeal has been decided that we can ascertain whether the task of EU institutions to sanction individuals has become more difficult. #eulaw #eupolicy #eusanctions Syddansk Universitet - University of Southern Denmark Juridisk Institut, Syddansk Universitet Francesca Finelli Luigi Lonardo Paul James Cardwell Peter Van Elsuwege https://lnkd.in/dYNWy2NC

Ex Philippines administration was focused on trade with China, not conflict, but current administration seems interested in playing the role of Ukraine against Russia, fighting a war against China by serving interests of America and sacrificing its own people. Philippines, with or without support from America or Japan, stands no chance to win any conflict with military. The reason its political elites still try to do it, just like in Ukraine, is probably because the elites get benefits personally by selling off the country. https://lnkd.in/e3gBFQw6