Kyle Harris’ Post

🇨🇳💉 China's Stimulus: What Asset Managers Are Saying About Valuations and Risks. China was the most common underweight expressed in asset managers' mid-year reviews, but with this new stimulus program, but how do asset managers see its impact on valuations, risks, and opportunities across equities and bonds? 🤔 Read the quick insights below and swipe the chart pack for more. 👨💻 👉 Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management highlighted the mixed outlook on Chinese equities, noting that while the stimulus supports growth, the underlying structural challenges such as high debt levels remain. Investors should be cautious, as the effects may take time to materialise, particularly in consumer sectors. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/enQ_Tp4u Federated Hermes Limited is cautiously optimistic, suggesting that while consumption and infrastructure sectors will see a short-term boost, investor focus should be on longer-term reform. They believe valuations in real estate and consumer sectors could become more attractive as liquidity improves, but this doesn’t signal an immediate bullish shift. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eXeAvahy State Street Global Advisors warned that while asset prices have risen, corporate earnings remain sluggish. They suggest caution for investors in equities, as the stimulus seems to lift prices rather than fundamentals. The bond market may offer more stability as yields adjust to looser financial conditions. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eiBxGm5H M&G Investments sees opportunities for a short-term lift in growth but emphasizes the ongoing risks. Investors should remain cautious in sectors like property, which continue to face headwinds. The stimulus could support fixed-income markets, where select high-yield bonds may become attractive due to lower rates. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e-2dPxRG Lombard Odier Investment Managers remains sceptical about the long-term impact. They argue that while the stimulus may provide short-term liquidity boosts, it won’t address deeper economic vulnerabilities. The firm remains cautious on both Chinese equities and bonds, advising investors to be selective and focus on structural trends over cyclical stimuli. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eUgsTf7T For more, visit Markets Recon. 💥 📈 #China #Investing #InvestmentManagement #FundManagement #MarketsRecon #CriticalIntelligence

China's Market Momentum: What's Next? 💰 Post 3 of 3 Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs equity strategist, shares insights on China's market outlook. Despite Tuesday's pullback, Moe remains optimistic, citing a 15-20% upside potential for Chinese equities 📈. Key Takeaways: - Market was overly optimistic, with momentum indicators "superhot" 🔥 - National Development and Reform Commission's lack of stimulus announcement led to correction 📉 - Small and mid-cap China A-shares present opportunities for growth 🚀 Statistics: - Chinese offshore market traded at 8.4 times forward price earnings ratio on Sept 11th, now at 10.8 📊 - Market up 38% since Sept 11th, with potential for further growth 📈 Investment Opportunities: - Small and mid-cap China A-shares, particularly in iShares 📈 - Hedge funds shifting from H-shares to A-shares, indicating potential for growth 📊 Expert Insights: "Even in a challenged environment, you can have moves that could be very consequential for investors." - Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs What's Next? - Ministry of Finance meeting and National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in Nov will provide clarity on policy support 📆 - Keep an eye on momentum indicators and market sentiment 📊 #ChinaMarket #EquityInvesting #GoldmanSachs #MarketOutlook #InvestmentOpportunities #FinancialInsights #EconomicGrowth #AsianMarkets #StockMarket #InvestingInChina

Morgan Stanley's mid-year outlook for China's equity markets: Navigating uncertainties and identifying opportunities In this insightful report, Morgan Stanley's Laura Wang presents a comprehensive mid-year outlook for China's equity markets. Amidst global uncertainties and market volatility, the report offers valuable insights for investors seeking to navigate the landscape and identify potential opportunities. Key takeaways: Offshore H and onshore A shares: The report delves into the relative attractiveness of offshore H shares and onshore A shares, providing guidance for investors seeking to optimize their China equity exposure. Benchmark earnings growth: The report examines the expected trajectory of benchmark earnings growth, taking into account various economic factors and potential risks. Bull and bear case scenarios: A thorough analysis of bull and bear case scenarios is presented, helping investors understand the potential upside and downside risks associated with China's equity markets. Overseas expansion opportunities: The report explores the prospects for Chinese companies expanding overseas, highlighting potential growth drivers and challenges. Intrigued by the full report? Comment below and I'll share it with you! Let's engage in a discussion - what are your thoughts on Morgan Stanley's outlook for China's equity markets? #China #investing #MorganStanley #equitymarkets #macroeconomics:

4𝐐 2024 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬: 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐭 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 The asset allocation strategies for this quarter, as outlined by Belle Liang, our Chief Investment Officer of Investments and Wealth Solutions, highlight the potential beneficiaries of the Fed's rate cut cycle. Fixed income, which has shown signs of recovery in the past three months, is expected to appreciate further as the US normalizes its short-term rates. This will prompt investors to seek alternatives to money market instruments to maintain yields, making investment-grade bonds the major beneficiaries of this transition. Furthermore, the Fed's anticipation of consecutive cuts, aiming for a soft landing of the economy, could present opportunities for emerging Asia fund flows. ASEAN markets have rebounded from the impact of the COVID years, experiencing recovery in tourism income, international trade, and foreign direct investment. A weakening US dollar and China's recent monetary and fiscal measures to stimulate growth are expected to further enhance the earnings potential of ASEAN corporates. On the other hand, the Hong Kong stock market, which has been buoyed by an unprecedented liquidity surge, holds the potential for further re-rating if China's rescue package can effectively support the real economy. #HangSengBank #WealthWise #GlobalAssetAllocation #GlobalBondMarket #GlobalEquities #AsianEquities   Disclaimer: The views as expressed in the above content represent the personal views or opinions of the author. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable and the opinions contained herein are for reference only. The above content is not and should not be considered as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investment products mentioned herein. The information contained in this content may be indicative only and has not been independently verified. Investment involves risks. The value of investments can go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Investors should refer to the offering documents and risk disclosure documents of the relevant investment products in detail before making any investment decision. Before making any investment decisions, investors must take into account of their own investment objectives, financial position and particular needs and where necessary consult their own professional advisers before making any investment. 

In a recent interview with James Faris, Client Portfolio Manager Brian Mulberry discussed his take on China’s recent stimulus efforts. While China made headlines with its biggest monetary boost since the pandemic, Brian notes that “things might actually be weaker underneath the surface than they're letting on.” Despite the initial market rally, Brian suggests that the potential for a prolonged slowdown outweigh the potential rewards for investors. Read more in Business Insider: https://lnkd.in/g_U7kGAG #ChinaEconomy #InvestmentRisk #MarketOutlook

China's market performance has slumped to multi-year lows, hurting investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. Check out thoughts from Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth in this recent Reuters interview about how China’s current economic conditions are impacting investment decisions. #InvestmentStrategy #MarketOutlook

The fundamental risk-reward of China and Hong Kong equities has reached an inflection point and is likely in an early stage of a broad recovery. Our Chief Investment Strategist Eli Lee lays out why we are turning constructive on the outlook.

After a tough year, China’s equity markets are looking battered and bruised, but where others see disaster we see potential. Opportunities abound for selective investors who remain unfazed by the negative sentiment. #investing #china #equities #markets #ActiveInvesting

⛵️🌏 Navigating Volatility and Fiscal Policies in Asia 👉🏼 https://lnkd.in/dwttUsVR 🧠 Find out Kelly Chung's, Chief Investment Officer of Multi Assets at Value Partners Group, insights on equities, fixed income, gold... and how a multi-asset strategy may contribute to navigate volatility. 🧐Attention shifts to the implications of China's unexpected economic stimulus, escalating geopolitical tensions, and the impact of upcoming U.S. elections. 📈The momentum in the Hong Kong China market has undoubtedly turned very positive. However, volatility has also dramatically increased with the heated rally.

A decrease in U.S. rates typically leads to a weakened dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging markets. This shift could significantly benefit businesses with foreign currency assets and liabilities in these regions. In such an environment, while global stock indices might show a general weakness due to a potential economic slowdown, emerging markets like China are expected to demonstrate relative resilience. This scenario will likely foster an influx of foreign investment into Chinese stocks, revitalizing the market with improved liquidity. Hong Kong’s market is expected to benefit from the policy change positively. The recent rate cuts could result in a weaker U.S. dollar, leading to an RMB appreciation. This would ease the valuation and liquidity pressures on Hong Kong stocks. Additionally, the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. will likely narrow, and China’s nominal GDP growth is expected to rebound. These factors could result in a resurgence of capital inflows in Hong Kong’s markets. #investing #wealthmanagement #assetallocation #2024 #equities #bonds #cash #commodities #europe #usa #china #asia #bricks #banking #diversification #income #growth Squadron Lending LTD Fahad Shah MSc, FCCA