Joyce Chang’s Post

The most consequential event this fall won’t be the U.S. election, a war in the Middle East, or even baseball’s World Series. For most Americans, it will be the first reduction in U.S. interest rates in more than four years. An expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve in mid-September won’t change the price of eggs or businesses’ hiring plans overnight, but it will signal the start of the next phase of the monetary-policy cycle, with important consequences for the economy, financial markets, and consumers. https://lnkd.in/gVC-ipeV

Rachel Wolff and I just published a piece on the potential impact of the upcoming election on the retail industry. The stakes are high as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris present two contrasting visions for managing the U.S. economy: 🗳 Trump's campaign plans to implement major changes that could reshape global trade and immigration policies, influencing supply chains and workforce dynamics. 🗳 Harris's campaign aims to address issues like the stagnant housing market and challenges facing young families, which could affect consumer confidence and spending patterns. Regardless of the election outcome, there will be significant implications for three key economic factors that weigh heavily on retail: ☑ Inflation ☑ Consumer Spending ☑ Regulation Understanding these potential shifts is crucial for retailers preparing for the future. Read our full analysis to learn more about how each candidate's policies could shape the retail landscape: https://lnkd.in/g_JmbThh

Here's my latest Forbes column, one with what seems to be a very different perspective on the Fed and politics. Elected Officials—And The Fed—Should Answer For Monetary Policy https://lnkd.in/e-S_RiCB

How will the retail landscape shift under a Harris administration compared with a Trump presidency? That's the question Zak Stambor and I set out to answer in our latest article on how the outcome of the US presidential election will affect the retail industry. Key takeaways: 1️⃣ Trump's proposed policies would reshape global trade and immigration, at the risk of reigniting inflation. 2️⃣ Harris' policies may help unfreeze the stagnant housing market and address challenges facing young families, which could impact consumer confidence and spending. 3️⃣ Regulatory priorities would shift, potentially affecting antitrust enforcement. Read the full report for more on how the election could affect the key areas of inflation, consumer spending, and regulation:

【NEWS UPDATE】📊 Market Insights from David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management 📊 https://lnkd.in/g5cehjtn In a recent media interview, David Kelly shared his insights on the potential implications of this week's U.S. election results for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If Trump secures a victory, Kelly anticipates that the Fed may pause its easing policy in December, citing concerns over rising inflation driven by Trump's proposed expansionary fiscal policies. 💼💰 Kelly notes that a sweeping Republican victory could lead to increased federal spending and potentially trade wars, widening the fiscal deficit and pushing interest rates upward. He stated, “If fiscal policy is likely to lead to higher deficits and more fiscal stimulus, the Fed may need to slow the pace of easing.” 📈🔍 Conversely, Kelly believes that if Vice President Harris wins, the economy may be set for a "soft landing," with the Fed likely to maintain its current easing path. He emphasized that political developments can influence economic directions, indicating that the Fed closely monitors fiscal policies when making decisions. 🏛️⚖️ As we approach the Fed's next meeting on November 7, Kelly expects a 25 basis point rate cut, regardless of the election outcome. Stay informed on how these political dynamics could shape our economic landscape! #Economy #FederalReserve #Elections #InterestRates #DavidKelly #JPMorgan #FiscalPolicy #MarketInsights #PoliticalImpact #SoftLanding

Here is some very interesting economic and fiscal data under the last eight presidents. With the exception that Biden has not completed his term, Republicans and Democrats have nearly balanced time in office so this is a good almost even set of presidents to examine. People can spin this data many ways, but keep in mind that - Many presidents inherited extremely good or bad times and got partial credit for something that started under their predecessors; Both Trump and Biden had Covid to deal with and Bush had the 911 attacks. - The president is not the captain of a ship. He must work with a House and a Senate, which can be favorable or adverse to him. - I do not show GDP here, because I have demonstrated repeatedly that it is a poor measure of economic activity; wealth is the ultimate measure of how well we are doing. - There is something for each party to gloat or be ashamed about here, though again, it takes a president plus Congress. - It is interesting that the last two presidents had the strongest and weakest records of real wealth increases. That is what inflation will do for you. The data are from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Database) #economy #politics $debt $wealth

As we look ahead to the next U.S. presidential election, one debate is particularly relevant for markets, businesses, and individuals: hawkish vs. dovish economic policies. In the world of economics, these terms represent distinct approaches to balancing growth and stability: 🦅 #Hawkish policies prioritize controlling inflation by increasing interest rates to cool off spending. A hawkish administration might focus on fiscal responsibility, tackle inflation, and curb government spending to stabilize prices—at the potential expense of higher borrowing costs and slower growth. 🕊️ #Dovish policies emphasize stimulating economic growth and lowering unemployment, even if it means tolerating higher inflation. A dovish administration may lean towards investments in infrastructure, social programs, and workforce development, making capital more accessible and boosting growth. The implications are significant for businesses, markets, and everyday Americans. Higher interest rates can impact loans, mortgages, and expansion plans, while lower rates could mean more capital in the system to support job creation and innovation. No matter the direction, the key for all of us—business leaders, investors, and citizens—is to stay informed and adaptable. Let’s continue to prepare for both possibilities and embrace the economic landscape as it unfolds. #EconomicOutlook #MonetaryPolicy #Election2024 #HawkishVsDovish #Leadership

Donald Trump recently suggested that U.S. presidents should have a say in interest rates and monetary policy, challenging the long-standing independence of the Federal Reserve. He believes his business acumen gives him better instincts than Federal Reserve officials, specifically criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s timing on rate decisions. Traditionally, the Fed operates independently to avoid political influence, but Trump's comments are sparking debate on the potential implications of political interference in monetary policy. As markets closely watch the Fed’s next move, with a potential rate cut on the horizon, investors are left wondering: Could a shift in the executive branch's influence over interest rates disrupt the delicate balance of economic stability? What are your thoughts on the potential impact of political involvement in monetary policy decisions? 🤔 #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #DonaldTrump #EconomicStability #JeromePowell #Investing #PoliticalInfluence #MarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #Algoimperial #AI #AssetManagement

I'm in California visiting my brothers family. He died in January and I miss our debates and discussion. We always would debate the topic of politics and finance. As an ex Wall Street profession I would often take a speculation view on the market and the economy. But their are factors behind the scenes that we aren't always aware of that would throw off my prediction. So stick around as we sort through it together. However, I always say, I may be early, but I'm not wrong. So if you have a gut feeling that something is brewing then your not wrong. We have Fed that is incessantly printing money, inflation through the roof, a fiscally irresponsible Congress spending money like drunken sailors and stock market on fire, which doesn't make any sense. . . . #RememberingMyBrother #DebateAndDiscuss #PoliticsAndFinance #WallStreetInsights #MarketSpeculation #BehindTheScenes #EconomicPredictions #StickAround #GutFeeling #NotWrong #FedPrintingMoney #InflationCrisis #FiscalIrresponsibility #CongressSpending #StockMarketConfusion #executive #executivecoaching #executiveleadership #leader #executivecoach #TamaraLashchyk #ExecutivePerspecticve #TDL #TDLInternational