Brad Coker’s Post

The U.S. Election is almost here! Gauging the historical impact of a presidential election on U.S. stocks Discussion about various political scenarios can be engaging, but predicting market performance based on these scenarios is pure speculation. Debate also persists about the extent to which politics actually influence market performance. The person most likely to influence returns in the near term may not be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, but rather U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. The trajectory and extent of interest-rate adjustments by the Fed, along with their impact on the U.S. economy and inflation, are likely to have more of an effect on investment returns than the person who ultimately occupies the Oval Office. As voters prepare to cast their ballots, investors would be wise to concentrate on investment fundamentals rather than potential coincidences. Click on the link to read our thoughts on the US election and its impact on the markets. https://lnkd.in/gkPxtD85 #financialmarkets #invest #finance #money #advisor #innovation #technology #elections #future #economy Kevin Headland, CIM Manulife Investment Management Manulife

【NEWS UPDATE】📊 Market Insights from David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management 📊 https://lnkd.in/g5cehjtn In a recent media interview, David Kelly shared his insights on the potential implications of this week's U.S. election results for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If Trump secures a victory, Kelly anticipates that the Fed may pause its easing policy in December, citing concerns over rising inflation driven by Trump's proposed expansionary fiscal policies. 💼💰 Kelly notes that a sweeping Republican victory could lead to increased federal spending and potentially trade wars, widening the fiscal deficit and pushing interest rates upward. He stated, “If fiscal policy is likely to lead to higher deficits and more fiscal stimulus, the Fed may need to slow the pace of easing.” 📈🔍 Conversely, Kelly believes that if Vice President Harris wins, the economy may be set for a "soft landing," with the Fed likely to maintain its current easing path. He emphasized that political developments can influence economic directions, indicating that the Fed closely monitors fiscal policies when making decisions. 🏛️⚖️ As we approach the Fed's next meeting on November 7, Kelly expects a 25 basis point rate cut, regardless of the election outcome. Stay informed on how these political dynamics could shape our economic landscape! #Economy #FederalReserve #Elections #InterestRates #DavidKelly #JPMorgan #FiscalPolicy #MarketInsights #PoliticalImpact #SoftLanding

In election years, there's a notable shift in atmosphere, bringing a mix of hope and speculation. Historical patterns suggest these periods often lead to a positive sentiment in the market, driven by the anticipation of new policies and leadership. Interestingly, this year hints at an unusual level of Federal Reserve activity, with predictions leaning towards multiple rate cuts. This strategic move could potentially fuel the economy further, offering a buffer against downturn risks, unless unforeseen crises arise. #ElectionYear #MarketOptimism #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth

#WeeklyMarketUpdate: U.S. Election Shifts Market Sentiment 🇺🇸 U.S. Election Impact: Markets rallied after Trump’s presidential victory, with small-cap stocks leading gains. However, the House of Representatives remains uncertain, impacting key policy decisions like potential extensions to the 2017 tax cuts. 📊 Market Moves: Anticipated reductions in regulations—particularly in energy, finance, and labor—are boosting investor confidence. Spending increases, especially on defense, could push budget deficits higher, which contributed to the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. 🏦 Fed Rate Cut: Amid election buzz, the Fed quietly cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Fed Chair Powell was notably cautious, indicating balanced inflation and economic risks. Treasury yields peaked mid-week but stabilized after the cut. #Elections #InterestRates #USPolitics #Fed #FinancialPlanning

"Trump’s victory is likely to accelerate macroeconomic trends already in motion: labor supply (weaker), the supply of tradable goods (contracting), and a deteriorating fiscal backdrop. These are likely to lead to higher near-term inflation and higher inflation volatility." Michael Medeiros, CFA, US Macro Strategist #USElection #MarketAnalysis #EconomicOutlook #Trump #Finance Read more:

Here's my latest Forbes column, one with what seems to be a very different perspective on the Fed and politics. Elected Officials—And The Fed—Should Answer For Monetary Policy https://lnkd.in/e-S_RiCB

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros, CFA looks at the macro and market implications of the US election with the aim of helping you navigate the current landscape with greater confidence. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/eJWi9CAW #USElection #MarketAnalysis #EconomicOutlook #Trump #Finance

"Trump’s victory is likely to accelerate macroeconomic trends already in motion: labor supply (weaker), the supply of tradable goods (contracting), and a deteriorating fiscal backdrop. These are likely to lead to higher near-term inflation and higher inflation volatility." Michael Medeiros, CFA, US Macro Strategist #USElection #MarketAnalysis #EconomicOutlook #Trump #Finance Read more:

As we near the U.S. election, financial markets are bracing for significant changes. While the economy and Federal Reserve policies are key, the election outcome will introduce new uncertainties. Here’s what you need to know: - Equities: A Trump victory may lower the corporate tax rate to 15%, possibly increasing S&P 500 earnings by 4% and benefiting sectors like banks and technology. Conversely, a Harris win could raise the rate to 28%, potentially reducing profits by 8% and impacting tech and industrial stocks. - Bonds: A Trump administration could lead to inflationary pressures, impacting long-term Treasury bonds, while a Harris presidency might signal more fiscal discipline amidst ongoing government spending challenges. - Currencies: The election outcome could result in significant volatility, especially for currencies of U.S. trading partners, depending on each candidate’s trade policies and stance on tariffs. Given the uncertainty, investors should prepare for heightened market volatility as the election draws near.  Read more about how these developments could influence financial markets: https://lnkd.in/djx6rFtR #USElection #USA #FederalElection #FinancialMarkets

The most consequential event this fall won’t be the U.S. election, a war in the Middle East, or even baseball’s World Series. For most Americans, it will be the first reduction in U.S. interest rates in more than four years. An expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve in mid-September won’t change the price of eggs or businesses’ hiring plans overnight, but it will signal the start of the next phase of the monetary-policy cycle, with important consequences for the economy, financial markets, and consumers. https://lnkd.in/gVC-ipeV