It’s been exciting to see all of the interesting recaps from this year’s Hall of Flowers , and as I sat down to write my own I realized that my friends here on LinkedIn perfectly captured my sentiments, leaving me with nothing new to say! So instead I would like to reflect on the state of the union, as it were, which was a topic that seemed to be on many minds. That’s one of the things that I love most about events like Hall of Flowers, is that it gives us a moment to step outside of our daily grind to connect with our community and feel its pulse. I’ve attended every HoF since inception (minus the one I had COVID), and it’s incredible to see how much the market has evolved. From 2018 to 2020, we saw 1000s of licensed operators in CA, and the creation of 10,000s of unique products. Today, there are fewer than 850 active brands on retail shelves. I attribute this to 3 key factors, and would love to hear what other factors are on the top of your list. First, we are at the dawn of a newly regulated market. This “pioneer” phase will extend at least through 2024. It reminds me of my experience working in the mobile app boom from 2008 to 2012. Like the app market, the cannabis industry experienced an initial influx of new entrants, and over a several year period the market consolidated as consumers determined their preferences and loyalty. This consolidation and market contraction has led to many of the changes we’re witnessing today. Second, the cannabis industry operates within three distinct markets: the illicit, the grey/hemp, and the regulated market. These markets coexist but also compete with each other, creating challenges that hinder the growth of individual markets as well as the overall industry. Many operators that used to exist in the regulated market have moved or diversified to other markets. Third, the rapid growth witnessed in recent years was largely fueled by anticipation of federal legalization. Many entrepreneurs anticipated increased capital inflows, heightened M&A activity, and lucrative exit opportunities. However, these expectations remained unfulfilled, leaving numerous companies struggling for survival. Consequently, a "growth at any cost" mentality emerged, leading to aggressive price competition and compression. These factors have led to a heavily skewed marketplace where large value brands dominate, causing the obliteration of many mid to long-tail brands, including small farms and legacy producers. These challenges stem from a nascent, poorly regulated and manipulated market under federal prohibition. The good news is that a regulatory inflection point is inevitably on the horizon, and I’m confident that in this next phase we will see the cannabis market regain equilibrium and foster a more diverse retail shelf. It will also spur the revival of brands and producers that exemplify our cannabis heritage and culture. That is my hope at any rate—I’d love to hear your thoughts! #cannabis #cannabisindustry #california
I disagree with your second point about three markets hindering each other. The real kneecapping comes from outrageous government fees and taxes, which leads to growers operating in multiple markets. Competition (and co-opetition) breeds excellence. There are lots of indoor growers learning about the benefits of sun light and regenerative soil, many sungrowers learning about clone preparation and genetics preservation, and so on.
Great insights. Thank you for elevating this industry Jocelyn Sheltraw - classy, smart and bad ass!
Jocelyn Sheltraw - I'm thrilled to see your callout to the 3 markets that coexist. This has been top of mind for me as I observe the NY market up close and personal. Market segregation is an artificial construct that creates both opportunities and restrictions in the marketplace. We have 1 market, and the crossover between these 3 submarkets may be the only thing holding up the two licensed markets (cannabis & hemp). By digging deeper into the symbiotic nature of all three, we may find creative solutions for the survival and success of cannabis business in the U.S.
Well put Jocelyn Sheltraw. This industry is at a fascinating inflection point. Much to learn from other emerging markets from the past. And now overlaying this with the unique aspects of this industry makes for an uncertain future. Thanks for being a balanced voice!
One of the best posts I’ve read on this platform Jocelyn Sheltraw. Coming from financial markets I too have experienced boom and bust cycles. It hurts watching talented operators we know and love struggle to make it in the current paradigm. Policy reform is needed now - let’s saddle up Elliot Lewis and the entire LinkedIn canna fam!
From regulatory rollercoasters to market shake-ups, it's a wild ride indeed. Here's to hoping for smoother sailing ahead and more diverse shelves to explore. Thanks for the sensitive insight👏👏
Love this perspective. Here here!
Nothing like surf boards and cannabis!
Well said Jocelyn Sheltraw !
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9moThanks for your thoughtful analysis. Your kindness, integrity and passion for the plant make your voice an invaluable trusted guide and advocate. The unfulfilled promise of federal legalization has many chomping at the bit for the next chapter. The jackboot of over-zealous state regs and mercilessly greedy tax burdens will likely be amplified by the arrival of similar boots from Uncle Sam. It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better, if ever. The beautiful ethic of compassionate care that illuminated the genesis of legal cannabis will never be valued by bureaucrats. The heart and soul of the plant medicine community is in danger of becoming a faint memory if the FDA takes over jurisdiction of cannabis. The agency has devolved into an obedient servant of it’s master: the pharmaceutical industry. I pray the USDA or another less corrupt department wins the opportunity. The best thing about federal legalization might be a robust home grower community. We desperately those who haven’t yet experienced the plant to touch, see, feel, taste her glory in the garden. It’s hard to introduce newbies to the wholesome goodness of this goddess through pre-packed 1/8s and prerolls of stale parched mediocrity. But I digress…