Jaanika Merilo’s Post

In an era of agenda and opinion driven news which can not be taken seriously or as credible, it is almost a breath of fresh air to have some truth bombs dropped on us if only the truth weren't so dire and bleak. I've been spending a lot of time commenting on the conflicts around the globe of late and my personal opinions and take aways from those conflicts. I have made suggestions and predictions again that are merely my own opinions looking at things through the lens of my experience and now we have confirmation of much of those fears and concerns. America, and perhaps the Western World, is at its most vulnerable state in history. We are facing an existential threat from alliances forged and formed between those who wage wars directly or by proxy and it those threats are ones which we may actually not be able to overcome. Unless we act. Unless we change. Unless we adapt. And we do so yesteday. Be the Solution.

- The Global instability line is a red flag; its generally used as the introduction every secretary of defense or armed service chief uses before trying to terrify congress into funding their pet passion. It’s usually followed by recommendations to fund the submarine/bomber/tank that will bring stability back to the globe. - Adversaries are emboldened by unserious foes, like NATO partners who underinvest in defense for decades, or impose caveats on the employment of their forces responding to an article V invocation, or the disastrous withdrawal from Kabul or the response to the Chinese spy balloon, etc. all of which happened under the administration he serves. - China is unlikely to engage in any other kind of war, and the US hasn’t clearly articulated the definition of victory for a war within 1000 miles of China’s coast. - see the note on NATO Allies and note how many of those countries continue to buy Russian natural gas and oil, and who turn a blind eye to Russia’s brisk black market oil trade. - none of the mentioned investments will matter if we cannot assemble, equip, train, lead, move and sustain the size force required to prevail in a global, multi-domain conflict. Policymakers avoid the question of people because it is politically radioactive, but it is absolutely the most essential component for victory.

‘There is potential for near term war and there is potential we might lose this conflict.’ Eric Edelman, the Vice Chair of the National Defense Strategy Commission, briefed Senate lawmakers on the Armed Services Committee on Tuesday and had some very sobering views of the world. Some key takeaways: - This is the most unstable the world has been since the end of WW2 - The Chinese, Iran, Russia and North Korean axis is emboldened and not being addressed adequately by the US and it’s Allies - The US is still dominant but would most likely lose a war that is within 1000 miles of the Chinese mainland - Russia had done a spectacular job rebuilding their economy and Vladimir Putin is actively working to establish itself as a great power -The US needs to be able to fight multi theatre wars and do to this we need to speed up innovation, change the procurement process and reinvitalize the domestic industrial base

When the war of words outpaces the experts’ knowledge: Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out (logistics and supply chains do matter) https://lnkd.in/gkyybQSc from The Economist Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out

Reaching the bottom of the barrel? What now Putin? For a long time it seemed that a war of attrition between Ukraine and a Russia with five times its population could end only one way. But the much-vaunted Russian offensive against Kharkiv in the north that started in May is fizzling out. Its advances elsewhere along the line, especially in the Donbas region, have been both strategically trivial and achieved only at huge cost. The question now is less whether Ukraine can stay in the fight and more how long can Russia keep up its current tempo of operations.

China's government is today borrowing at 225bps below US Treasuries across the curve. China's credit at times even seems to be superior to America's, given that its currency seems to instinctively strengthen, and not weaken, with every drop in global interest rates. I had written about the coming fall of the dollar against the CNY about 12 months back, and so far it has played out more fully in the interest rate arena rather than in the exchange rate arena - perhaps because Xi is obsessed with export-led growth and favours a slightly weaker currency. https://lnkd.in/d84KJ-Kh The root cause of the CNY strength though is the country's fairly recent strategic dominance. China's hypersonic weaponry arsenal renders the entire American Navy and those of its allies redundant in the Taiwan Strait, as ship-killing hypersonic missiles have increasingly become the norm. Taiwan - the world's only advanced chip supplier - is about as far from China as Lonavala is for Mumbaikars. And it's now pretty much putty in Xi's hands. Worryingly for the island last week, TSMC's first big plant in America in Arizona achieved a yield higher than its Taiwanese facilities. This means that Taiwan's strategic importance to America is beginning to wane as advanced chip facilities are not islanded anymore (if you'd pardon the pun). Now I'm not suggesting that the world is going off to war tomorrow - and the US will still maintain nuclear submarine dominance (both first- and second-strike) as long as Xi is alive. But China's strategic dominance under Xi has suddenly become all-too-real without even a shot being fired. "The art of fighting without fighting."

🌍 Reforming American Defense: A Call to Action in the Face of Global Threats 🇺🇸 In today’s rapidly changing global landscape, the threats we face—especially from nations like Russia—demand a reevaluation of how we approach national defense. The joint statement by Jane Harman and Eric S. Edelman to the Senate Armed Services Committee highlights a crucial point: our current strategies must evolve to effectively address modern challenges. At uCare, we recognize the pressing need to reform America’s defense strategies, with a particular focus on information security and the digital battlefield. Here’s where we see the most urgent need for change: Overhauling Information Security: With misinformation and cyber threats becoming increasingly potent tools of foreign adversaries, we must prioritize securing our digital infrastructure and countering propaganda effectively. Bipartisan Reform Efforts: National security is a non-partisan issue. We need a united effort to create and implement policies that are resilient against evolving threats. Strengthening Public Awareness: Empowering citizens with accurate information and the tools to recognize misinformation is key to a robust national defense. Enhancing Technological Innovation: Staying ahead in cybersecurity, AI, and other critical technologies is essential to maintaining our national security. Russia’s aggressive tactics, both overt and covert, make it clear: the old ways of thinking about defense are no longer sufficient. uCare is committed to advocating for these necessary reforms and supporting initiatives that protect our nation’s security in the information age. It’s time for a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach that ensures our defense strategies are as dynamic and adaptive as the threats we face. 📄 Read the full statement here: Joint Harman-Edelman Statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee https://lnkd.in/gjytDmCS #uCare #NationalSecurity #DefenseReform #InformationSecurity #Cybersecurity #Bipartisanship #GlobalThreats #DigitalDefense #Innovation #PublicAwareness #Russia

AND - let me add: Russia possesses a total of 5,580 nuclear warheads as of 2024, the largest confirmed stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. Russia's deployed missiles (those actually ready to be launched) number about 1,710, also the largest confirmed strategically deployed arsenal in the world as of 2024. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and Federation of American Scientists estimated in 2024 that China has a stockpile of approximately 438 nuclear warheads, while the United States Department of Defense put the estimate at more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, making it the third-largest in the world. North Korea currently is estimated to have 50 warheads, as of January 2024, and the fissile material for an estimated 70-90 nuclear weapons. North Korea is estimated to possess 60-80 kilograms of plutonium and 280-1,500 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. This timetable estimates how soon Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal. It assumes Iran would try to build an arsenal of five warheads of the implosion type – the goal Iran set for itself when it began to work on nuclear weapons decades ago. With its thousands of gas centrifuges, some operating and some in storage, Iran can enrich uranium to a grade suitable for nuclear reactor fuel or to a higher grade suitable for nuclear weapons. On January 5, 2020, Iran announced that it would no longer observe any limit (such as that set by the nuclear accord of 2015) on the use of its centrifuges, or on the possession of uranium they enrich. Since then, Iran has expanded its stockpile of enriched uranium, increased the enrichment level of that stockpile, and brought more advanced centrifuges into operation. What do you think the world will look like after your WW3 that you so desperately want to start?

Interesting to hear it as it is very factual. It gets back to the basics that during times of potential conflict then people take sides. If you are Italian then you sometimes switch, but joking aside we definitely have to train and be ready to respond to these threats. More NATO exercises, and more joint training exercises with our partners in SE Asia.

"Yes, Ukrainians are brave, but can they really win?" - this is the question I often get when people notice my little pin saying "We Stand with Ukraine" during coffee breaks at investment conferences across Europe. It's nearly impossible to quantify the courage and commitment of Ukrainian warriors, which in reality are very important. But even leaving that aside, it's all in the maths, and it's not adding up in russia's favour. Yes, when Ukraine was forced into this war the country was dwarfed by the scale of the invading force - personnel, armoured vehicles, aviation, artillery - russia easily outnumbered Ukraine on every metric. But, third year into the conflict, it's becoming clear that Goliath is running out of steam. Russia's stockpiles of weapons and pool of men to recruit are vast, but not infinite, and russians are burning through them at a staggering pace. The depletion manifests itself in the increasingly antique tanks, motorcycles and golf buggies replacing APCs at the frontlines, and in steeply rising pay offered to recruits to join the invading army. The Ukrainian army also has its problems with personnel and equipment. But when evaluating an equation, it's important to remember that there is not only a plus/minus sign, but also a factor. And that negative factor for russia is much greater than it is for Ukraine. Western weapons are (painfully slowly) skewing the odds in Ukraine's favour. Putin is delusional, but some people in russian high command clearly understand this. And that's why we hear all these ridiculous "peace proposals" from Orban and his likes right now. Because time is running out for the invader. Keep supporting Ukrainians, and they will prevail. https://lnkd.in/etx7pMSV