IntelCenter’s Post

Reuters ran an article today on the US and Iraq reaching an agreement for US forces to be out by the end of 2026 with a significant reduction in 2025. Immediately wanting to understand how this will impact the actions of pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria going forward, I asked our ICD Domain GenAI. It drafted a thorough analysis based off its knowledge of more than 80M words from groups in less time than it is taking me to write this post. You can read the full exchange at the link below. #iraq #Iran #syria #uswithdrawal #nationalsecurity #osint #cai #IntelCenter #ICD #genai #intelligenceanalysis

💡Commentary: Social media is being weaponised in Syria's civil war 💡 "On 27 November, heavy fighting renewed in Syria’s 13-year civil war with the launch of ‘Operation Deterrence of Aggression’ by allied Islamist and nationalist rebel factions. The offensive quickly captured Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, and opposition forces are now pressing towards Hama, where they have met forces loyal to President Bashir al-Assad supported by Iran backed militias from Iraq and Russian airpower. The offensive’s leading partner, the proscribed terrorist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the Al-Nusra Front, has re-established assets on major social platforms to broadcast its notices to local populations and battlefield victories. This includes war footage taken from FPV drone strikes, thermal scopes, and frontline HTS militants. Much of which is amplified by HTS supporters or conflict monitors on social media. Social media operations have become integral to modern conflict, as seen in both the Russo-Ukraine War and the conflict in Gaza. Content pipelines running from the frontline to combatant digital media assets provide a drip feed of new footage to engage audiences on social media. For the HTS, these help to boost perceptions of its military and tactical capabilities both to maintain morale among supporters and boost offline recruitment. As ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ unfolds, platforms are likely to action HTS’ new assets due to the group’s proscribed status and they will return to relying on messaging apps to communicate. Nevertheless, as with other terror organisations and militant groups, new supporters drawn in by HTS’ propaganda are likely to act as independent and organic distributers of its content on mainstream social media platforms." - The Digital Investigations Team #SyriaWar #DigitalThreat #Propaganda #SocialMedia

The West needs to wake up - this is not only Israel's challenge. Ever since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel last October, murdering more than 1,100 people and kidnapping about 250, the fear has been of a wider regional conflict. On several occasions it appeared as if a clash between Israel and Iran was likely either directly or through its proxies in the region, notably Hezbollah based in Lebanon. Thousands of missiles have been fired in the southern border regions aimed at Israel, and at the weekend one killed at least 12 people, including children, in the Golan Heights – which has been occupied since the 1967 war. Israel says the rocket was launched from a village in southern Lebanon and hit a football pitch in a Druze minority area where boys and girls were playing. Advertisement While Hezbollah denied responsibility, it has previously fired a number of missiles at northern Israeli towns, and most Western observers, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, say the Shi’a group was responsible. Indeed, its media outlets admitted it had launched a rocket but claimed the target was a military compound. It is telling that when Israel claims to be targeting Hamas positions in Gaza it is condemned if there are civilian casualties. Yet there are no demonstrations in the streets against Hezbollah or its paymasters in Tehran, another example of the double standards seen in the response to October 7. The Israeli government’s rhetoric in response to the killings is similar to that after October 7 – that it will exercise the right to self-defence and the perpetrators will be punished. The prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they would pay “a heavy price”. The Israeli air force hit a number of targets inside Lebanon in retaliation, with pressure growing for more concerted action. But Hezbollah is an altogether different challenge to Hamas, whose extirpation has proved to be difficult enough. It is heavily weaponised, courtesy of Iran, and its fighters have been hardened by participation in the Syrian civil war.  Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006 in a bid to counter the Hezbollah threat but withdrew after 34 days following a UN-brokered ceasefire. While many of its missile bases were destroyed they have since been rebuilt, often hidden inside villages or underground. There are some inside Israel who say both Hamas and Hezbollah need to be dealt with if the country is to be secure. Yet the prospect of a war spreading across the Middle East to the Gulf will alarm foreign governments who have turned a blind eye to the threat from Hezbollah for too long. https://lnkd.in/d5ihXZkK

HSNB Comment! It's quite funny how the European media evaluate the coup d'état in Syria. Why a coup d'état? Well, because the generals from the General Staff of the Syrian Army made a deal behind Bashir Assad's back with those who were in ISIS and Al Qaeda 5 years ago. And the "rebels" arrived in Damascus without anyone from the Syrian army firing a shot at them. None of the Czech journalists and especially the so-called security advisors evaluate it this way, because they google it. Well, it's not on Google. They must have contacts and they would have to be in Syria at some point. Today we were definitely entertained by a security advisor aged max. 30 from the CEVRO University in Prague, who meditated on CNN_Prima News about how there will now be an opportunity to establish democracy in Syria. So our prediction is this: Within months, Syria will have the same regime as in Afghanistan! And that's in the best case scenario, if the "rebels" don't start fighting within 3 months. Syrians? Wrong, journalists! 90% Palestinians from the area around the cities of Homa and Homz and Sunnis from eastern Syria. The idiots who founded ISIS together with the Iraqis.

Offering a comprehensive overview of the Middle East, the Regional Overview for March 2024 sheds light on the evolving dynamics shaping the region.

💡Commentary: Ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah likely to trigger a disinformation surge💡 "On 27 November, Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon, backed by the United States and France, following 13 months of sustained conflict. Over the next 60 days, Israeli forces will withdraw from Lebanon, while Hezbollah will withdraw from areas near the border in southern Lebanon. Similar to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the information space related to Israel/Hezbollah has contained a multitude of threats. This has included propaganda and influence operations amplifying AI-generated content, misattributed footage, and disinformation. With each new escalation in the conflict, a new wave of disinformation followed. The transitional period that will follow the ceasefire agreement is likely to provide threat actors with new incentives to deploy harmful behaviours that will seek to destabilise peace and trust in those who have brokered the deal. Threat actors may take advantage of recent anti-ceasefire protests in Israel to target Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and criticise the ceasefire deal. Actors could seed anti-US and France narratives, due to their involvement in brokering the deal. Any additional peace talks, such as those related to a ceasefire in Gaza, may also be targeted with disinformation. It is a reminder that even when steps are made towards peace, researchers must continue to adapt, as threat actors will, to monitor how online threats may shift in this transitional period." - The Digital Investigations Team #IsraelLebanonCeasefire #Disinformation #DigitalThreat #AI

#terrorism / #Europe / #extremism - How ISIS is establishing a new toehold in Europe - Extremists revive terror campaign across Europe's cities, spearheaded by Central Asians and teenagers radicalized online - from The National News: It has been five years since ISIS was defeated in the Syrian town of Baghuz, but the extremists are attempting a comeback in Europe. This time is not a repeat of a decade ago, when the driving force of extremism emanated from the Middle East. Experts are witnessing a rapidly emerging threat that comes from the online radicalisation of teenagers, many with a family heritage from the Balkan or Caucasus diaspora, plus a parallel upsurge out of Central Asia, including battle-hardened veterans who once fought in Syria for ISIS. Ken McCallum, the head of Britain's MI5 domestic intelligence agency, warned on Tuesday that the terrorist trend that concerned him most was the worsening threats from Al Qaeda, and more so from ISIS. “[ISIS] is not the force it was a decade ago,” he said “But after a few years of being pinned well back, they’ve resumed efforts to export terrorism.” He added that after a year of war in the Middle East, MI5 was “powerfully alive to the risk that events in the Middle East directly trigger terrorist action in the UK”. The focus of attention for security services and law enforcement is the branch of ISIS that originated in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-K, and is named after the historical region of Khorasan that takes in parts of Central and South Asia. The group has been proscribed as a terrorist organisation by governments across the world and it is feared it has ambitions to organise attacks in Europe as well as being the inspiration for young people to plot atrocities in its name. In March, ISIS-K said it had carried out an attack on a Moscow concert hall that killed at least 137 people, for which four men from Central Asia have been charged. But this is not a threat limited to the former Soviet sphere. Two 15-year-old girls and a 16-year-old boy suspected of planning an Islamist terrorist attack were arrested in Germany in April. They reportedly glorified ISIS and “declared themselves ready” to carry out the attack, say prosecutors. Their plan involved using knives and Molotov cocktails to attack worshippers in churches and police in their stations, with the cities of Dortmund, Dusseldorf and Cologne discussed as possible attack locations. In August, three teenagers were arrested in connection with a planned terrorist attack on a concert hall in Vienna where Taylor Swift was due to perform. The main suspect pledged allegiance to ISIS-K. https://lnkd.in/eJie6K27

On May 19, 2024, the DRC thwarted a coup attempt led by Christian Malanga, a US-based Congolese opposition figure. Key attackers included foreign nationals, highlighting potential international involvement. Despite the swift response by the DRC military and subsequent international condemnation, the attempted coup further complicates the country's already complex security and political landscape: What You Should Know: 1. Thwarted Coup Attempt: Coordinated attacks by Congolese and foreign nationals. 2. Key Perpetrators: Christian Malanga killed; his son Marcel and American Benjamin Zalman-Polun arrested. 3. Government Response: Swift military action and thorough investigations. International Reactions: Broad condemnation and support for DRC’s democratic institutions. 4. Future Implications: Likely consolidation of power by President Tshisekedi and potential crackdowns on opposition. Read Intelligensis' full Report Here: https://lnkd.in/e26exq3P hashtag #Intelligensis hashtag #DRC hashtag #Coup hashtag #Africa hashtag #Security

Terror Attack in Moscow - escalation expected? According to Putin's speech "all four were caught and detained. They were moving towards Ukraine. There, according to preliminary data, they had a crossing of border prepared from the Ukrainian side. Overall 11 people were detained." He promises that : "All the executors, planners and those who ordered this crime will be rightfully and inevitably punished, whoever they are and whoever ordered them. Let me repeat: we will identify and punish everyone who stood behind the terrorists, who prepared this attack against Russia, against our people"... Later on he compares it to the Nazis, which you can listen to in the longer speech link I included below: "The criminals cold-bloodedly and purposefully set out to kill, shoot our citizens at point-blanc range, our children, just like the Nazis once carried out massacres in the occupied territories, ..." Putin hence connects the attack with Ukraine and the Nazis. Now we know that Putin believes Nazis are in Ukraine and he has been justifying his war with this argument. In the past he has also linked Germany in that context. Independent of whatever we are told in our local media, we must think on basis of how Russia will think about this attack. The Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic said "there is no doubt that there will be further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, approaching a general war" So let's step back: We have a Genocide ongoing in Gaza. A likely escalation in Ukraine with a danger of involving Europe. Isn't it time for our Media and governments to finally do the right thing and push for peace and ceasefire instead of constantly throwing fuel into the fires of war? Our world is in an extremely dangerous spot right now, that will effect every one of us in a terrible way if it escalates out of control. Ceasefire Now! Peace Now! #moscow #terror #Israel #Gaza Escalation in Ukraine https://lnkd.in/diQNac63 Longer speech including Nazis portion: https://lnkd.in/de5dShxm Short speech with Ukraine portion: https://lnkd.in/dM8Ecudb

A visual representation of all the rockets launched from Lebanon into Israeli territory since October 7th reveals a significant number. To provide clarity, over 500 rockets have been launched, targeting Israeli cities, villages, and civilian infrastructure with the primary intention of killing civilians. These attacks have resulted in the death of 16 individuals and displaced over 80,000 people for more than half a year. It's important to note that these actions do not constitute 'resistance to occupation' as Israel does not occupy any part of Lebanon. Indeed, these activities represent a clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which established the border between Israel and Lebanon following the 2006 war. Despite these unprovoked attacks continuing for over six months, the United Nations Security Council and the General Assembly have not yet found the need to discuss or condemn the attacks. Similarly, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has not once expressed his 'concerns' regarding these violations and the ongoing threats to the Israeli civilian population. Unsurprisingly, the issue seems to have 'escaped' the attention of millions of demonstrators worldwide who lately seem to be so concerned with humanitarian issues 🤷♀️