Hantec Financial Africa’s Post

Dollar Index Volatility and French Political Impact After hitting a new high on November 22, the Dollar Index has continued to decline, influenced by profit-taking from USD bulls and changes in France's political situation. On December 4, France's cabinet budget proposal was rejected, causing political instability. However, remarks by far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave the market hope for stability, pushing the euro up by about 100 points, breaking through the 1.05 level. Meanwhile, strong U.S. economic data has kept the Dollar Index consolidating around 105.7, awaiting tonight's non-farm payroll data, which will influence the FOMC's rate decision. Traders should pay attention to market volatility and invest cautiously. =================================== About Hantec Financial: https://bit.ly/478OQPo #HantecFinancial #Hantec #Hantecgroup #Fintec #marketnews #financenews

The chart below, shared by Oktay Kavrak, CFA shows that gold reacts more to the amount of money printed and debt than inflation. The more fiscal deficits get out of control, the more the collapsing monetary system requires stimulus, the more all countries print their way out of problems, and the higher gold will go in the long run. Gold, as with stocks, real estate, or anything that cannot be easily printed, will tend to go up long term. As Richard Russell said, governments must "inflate or die". Yes, the chart is not logarithmic, but it serves its purpose: to highlight that the higher the US national debt goes, the higher gold will go. https://lnkd.in/dMn7Ppz3   #gold #goldprice #GoldInvestment #NationalDebt #MonetaryPolicy #InflationHedge #EconomicTrends

We thought we would follow up the video from Alan with a written post explaining how the tensions in the Middle East could affect your investments. #investments #ifa #financialservices

UK markets rose this week, supported by optimism from China’s stimulus measures, with the FTSE 100 Index gaining 1.02% to trade at 8,310 points at the time of writing. The Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has cleared the way for a big increase in capital spending at next month’s Budget, as his government won the backing of the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for reforms to boost growth-enhancing public investment. Chancellor, Rachel Reeves will set out revised fiscal rules at the Budget on October 30th with Whitehall insiders reporting that she wants to ensure they do not stop billions of Pounds being invested in areas such as the green energy transition, roads and hospitals. In the commodity markets, Brent crude futures traded around $72 per barrel on Friday and are set for a weekly fall, on a report that Saudi Arabia is committed to pressing ahead with production increases later this year, even if the move results in a prolonged period of low oil prices. Prices are also under pressure on the expectation that oil production will rise in Libya. Gold prices traded around $2,660 an ounce on Friday, scaling fresh highs again this week, on mounting expectations for another US interest rate cut this year. Gold has risen more than 29% so far in 2024, hitting record highs several times, fuelled by US rate cuts, safe-haven demand due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and central bank buying. US equity futures were little changed on Friday as investors awaited the personal consumption expenditures report, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. In the US, new data on Thursday showed that corporate profits increased at a more robust pace than initially thought in the second quarter. Strong profit growth should help to underpin the labour market and potentially shield the economy from a recession. #ftse100 #wealthmanagement #stocknews Read more https://lnkd.in/e74RPBZB

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀?   The tensions in the Middle East are dominating global news headlines. With major players within the oil markets involved, there will undoubtedly be implications that impact territories across the world and generate concerns around economic stability. To make matters much more serious, as a member of BRICS (a group of countries with a greater GDP now than the EU, some 29.3% of Global GDP), the BRICS Council has made a call to all members to avoid the use of the US Dollar when making settlement trades in oil. Since 1974 all trades in oil have been completed using the Dollar. 𝗦𝗼, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘂𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿? Well for a start you don’t need to hold as much in Dollar debt if you’re purchasing oil, so where will the Dollars all end up? Back to America, and this will make oil in the Dollar far more expensive and US debt far less attractive. It will force long dated US Treasury bonds to offer a higher yield, which in English means the value of this debt will plummet as people try to get rid of it. All your food is delivered using Diesel, your bottled water and coffee cups are made from petroleum, much of your clothing is also made from petroleum as well as many medical supplies. An increase in the price of oil will hit more than the petrol pump price. This is the stealthiest of all taxes, as it reduces government debt in their currency and at the same time reduces what you have to spend on your family. It’s worth remembering that inflation is ONLY caused by an increase in the money supply, and not by nurses asking for a pay rise. Inflation expectations will increase, but it might increase the value of your company shares, as the value of cash falls. One asset that is particularly sensitive to higher inflation expectations is government bonds and so you should talk to your IFA about how much exposure to longer dated debt your portfolio holds. As always, being well diversified and investing for the long term will help, but things take a turn for the worst, especially looking at the light weights that are making decisions internationally at the moment. I hope this information helps you understand the current situation in the Middle East and this may affect your investments. #investments #ifa #financialservices #dollar  

Things That Stick Out: Thursday Edition US Treasury Secretary Yellen: 'It will be necessary to get deficits down to keep interest costs manageable.' So says the official who sat silently by while the federal deficit more than doubled during her tenure to $2 trillion. Yellen also oversaw an unprecedented expansion in spending from $4.5 trillion in fiscal year 2019 to a proposed $7.3 trillion in FY 2025, even though the COVID excuse ran out a couple of years ago. She might as well be honest and substitute the word ‘deficits’ with ‘rates.’ At least that would provide a more accurate assessment of our current fiscal condition and the motivation behind the Fed’s desire to aggressively cut rates. Meanwhile, China threw more stimulus at its economy Thursday, and the Saudis ditched their informal price target for oil at $100, indicating an increase in production beginning December 1. It’s smiles all around in macroland today as bad news gets pushed into the background. Let’s see how long it lasts. We have our doubts. See original IGM post here: https://lnkd.in/eifnvK6A IGM | Informa Connect #recession #deficit #budget #economy #china #saudiarabia #oil #financialmarkets #yellen #federalreserve #interestrates

The ECB at its head the politically motivated Christine Lagarde (who committed an amateurish statement error by saying 18 months ago that inflation is transitory and still holds the job btw) wants to rush at decreasing interest rates to save its debt ridden members. The ECB and its members should get out of politics and focus on their economic core job to take the right objective decision. Noting that interest rates are not high (4% should be a norm). If they decrease the rates, the Euro will devaluate against the USD (given the current situation, the Fed will not decrease rates as they speculated and will maybe have to increase it evenmore) sending back inflation to high levels in the EU as all big import contracts like oil are USD denominated! #ECB #EU #economy #Europe #competency #vision #right_thing_todo #centralbanks #politics #easywayout

Market updates from the team at Capex Currency:   💷 GBP: UK Spring budget overview - Chancellor Hunt announces a £10bn personal tax cut, including a 2p reduction in national insurance rates. The budget brings few surprises, with no changes to income tax thresholds and modest growth forecasts.   💶 EUR: The European Central Bank keeps rates steady, but President Lagarde suggests a potential rate cut in June. Revised inflation forecasts and Lagarde's statements indicate a dovish stance.   💵 USD: In his testimony to Congress, Powell suggests that lower rates may be appropriate this year for the US economy. This sentiment triggers speculation about a June rate cut, leading to some dollar weakness against other currencies. Happy Friday! #internationalpayments #fx #macroeconomics #springbudget2024

https://lnkd.in/dRHKdMgE ZAR: USD/ZAR has been quiet, too quiet For a highly volatile FX pair, USD/ZAR has been exceptionally quiet. Today presents a sizable event risk in the form of the South African annual budget. This will be a pre-election budget since general elections will be held in late May. The challenge for South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be seeking out pre-election giveaways while continuing to show that South Africa's debt-to-GDP trajectory will be stabilising at around 78% in 2025/26. That will be a challenging task given weak growth. And perhaps the biggest focus for FX markets will be whether the government decides to tap into the South African Reserve Bank's contingency fund for government spending plans. That would be a very bad look and probably trigger a strong upside break-out in USD/ZAR. A USD/ZAR close above its 20-day Bollinger Band at 19.14 today (Bollinger bands are used as a tool in technical analysis to pinpoint breakouts from low volatility regimes) suggests the rand could be running into a lot of trouble over the next month.

The currency domino has been falling ever since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. With high spending and deficits on top of Debt to GDP above 100% in many nations, the West in particular is facing a very dark period with galloping debt growth and collapsing currencies. This will lead to debt defaults, bank defaults, more printing, higher interest rates and still higher deficits. https://lnkd.in/e_gCevWg