Francisca Igboa’s Post

Reviewing Nigeria’s Challenging Economic Crisis in This New Year 2024 Nigeria is grappling with a severe economic crisis driven by global and domestic factors. Here's a brief overview: 1. Plummeting Oil Prices: Global oil price drops due to geopolitical tensions and COVID-19 have caused a significant budget deficit, impacting Nigeria's ability to fund essential services and infrastructure projects. 2. Foreign Exchange Imbalances: Nigeria faces a shortage of dollars and a weakened naira in its foreign exchange market, leading to uncertainty for businesses and investors despite stabilization efforts. 3. Rising Inflation and Cost of Living: Soaring inflation rates have made the cost of living challenging, contributing to increased poverty and social unrest. 4. Unemployment and Underemployment: The economic downturn has resulted in a surge in unemployment, particularly among the youth, exacerbating social and economic inequalities. 5. Infrastructure Deficits: Inadequate infrastructure, including power supply and transportation networks, hampers economic activities and discourages foreign investments. 6. Governance and Corruption: Governance issues and corruption have further complicated Nigeria's economic landscape, undermining policies and discouraging investment. Recovery Strategies: To navigate the crisis, Nigeria must diversify the economy, implement sound fiscal and monetary policies, prioritize infrastructure development, and address corruption through anti-corruption measures. Conclusion: Overcoming economic challenges requires resilience, strategic leadership, and a commitment to implementing effective policies. By fostering diversification, promoting transparent governance, and attracting investments, Nigeria can embark on a path to recovery and build a more sustainable and prosperous future. Full Article: https://lnkd.in/gG9JsTzS #nigerian #NigeriaNews #nigeria #nigerianeconomy #NigerianEconomy #nigerianinflation #nigeriancurrency #nigeriancorruption #anticorruption #nigeriangovernment #nigeriangovernment #nigeriangovernmenthasfailed #nigerianpolitics #nigerianpolicies #nigeriancurrency #inflation #inflation

You can be growing and not developing! It takes a conscious, and a deliberate effort to develop.... and it is the government, the central planning authority in charge of that not the private individuals... because development is usually on a large scale process and not on a small scale process due to the attainment of the Macroeconomic goals and development! A country, firm not only interested in the growth of the country and firm would engage the process of development planning. The development of any country, nation, city, firm is dependent largely on the development of the populace and staffs respectively... Because an organisation sees growth, returns does not equate the development of that organisation. Not until the there is a just development of its populace, staffs and workers, there won't be development... hence the need for a good development plan. Development is the goal, planning is the strategic road map to it. Nigeria sees growth in its GDP and in the contributions of some of the sectors... but there is still a large portion of unemployment, inequalities, poverty rate in the system. According to the 2023 data based on IMF growth rate estimates applied to World Economics GDP data. The official estimate for Nigeria's GDP was $1.115 trillion at the end of 2023 in puchasing power partity terms. World Economics has developed a database presenting GDP in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data. World Economics estimates Nigeria's GDP to be $2.112 trillion - 89% larger than official estimates. this is to make us understand that growth can be one-sided but development is an all-round phenomenon! embrace development not just growth! Reference: https://lnkd.in/dtZZ-bcm #business #growth #development #economy #macroeconomics #largescale #government

The rapid rise of digital financial inclusion in a post-COVID world is vital for productivity in Nigeria, as digital financial inclusion helps alleviate poverty by increasing the speed, security, and transparency of transactions.  According to the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS), 40.1 million Nigerians were financially excluded in 2016, with 55.1 % of the excluded population being women, 61.4 % being between the ages of 18 and 35, 34.0 % having no formal education, and 80.4 % living in rural areas. Given a couple of financial reforms that have been implemented, what are the implications of financial exclusion on sustainable economic growth? Is digital financial inclusion an effective solution to reducing Nigeria's large unbanked population? Further, the Catch-Up effect or the convergence theory posits that poorer economies grow at a faster rate than developed economies, and after some time, there would be divergence in their per capita income. Given the fluctuating GDP Per capita rate, HDI, fiscal and monetary policies, and institutional constraints in developing countries such as Nigeria and others, is the catch-up effect evident in reality? Will developing countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, India, and Peru, among others ever catch up with developed economies?          Join us this Wednesday at PARG UNN Ninth Sitting to find out the answers to these pertinent questions. Date: 10th July, 2024. Time: 4 pm Venue: Theatre A, Economics Department, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. #PARGUNN #ProgressThroughKnowledge #FinancialInclusion #CatchUpEffect

#FigureItOutWithObinna Let me start this piece with a disclaimer. I am not an Economist in the sense that I didn't take formal courses or degree in Economics. Similarly, I have not been hired to do any Economics role for anyone or organization. Even at that, I realise that as the head of my household, I perform some of Economist's functions. I realise that each time I make good economic decision, my family have abundance and the quality of our lives will be improved and investments are made. However, when I take not well-thought out economic decisions, I plung my family into scarcity, deficit and we get into debts. Now, I am beginning to ask questions regarding the economic policies that our Economic Advisers and National Economic Team churn out and why the country's economic indicators looks positive on PowerPoint but doesn't translate to improvement in the quality of lives of the citizens. As a keen observer of the economy, I have seen that the serial economic policies doesn't reduce Nigeria's debt, but the debt keep rising. The economic policies doesn't bring down the price of fuel and essential commodities. The economic policies are not creating jobs. The economic policies have made many international bodies describe Nigerians as having dipped into multi-dimensional poverty. The economic policies doesn't bring down the exchange rate. The economic policies doesn't increase the purchasing power of the Naira. Looking at those that are appointed or elected and entrusted to manage the Nigerian economy, they are no doubt, accomplished Nigerians with pedigree in Economics practice. Is there something we are not doing right with our conceptualisation of our economic policies or is it implementation problem? What is really the problem? I doubt it's a case of capacity. I doubt it's a case of lack of political will. What is really the problem!!! Should we continue this way? What's the way out? The bad economy is already contributing to many health problems and premature death. It is contributing to high crime rate. It has fractured many relationship and marriages. There's dire need for urgency and quick-fix measures. Let's have some conversation around the way out! ~Obinna Chukwuezie

📢 I’m thrilled to share my new paper, "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Sectoral Output in Nigeria", which has just been published. This study dives deep into the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the ten largest subsectors of Nigeria's economy, using quarterly data from Q1 1981 to Q4 2023. Given that these subsectors account for about 89% of Nigeria’s productive activities, understanding their dynamics under uncertainty is crucial. In this paper, I developed a comprehensive index of macroeconomic uncertainty, incorporating factors like exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, and real GDP uncertainties. Using cutting-edge techniques such as the novel dynamic ARDL and robust estimators like CCR and FMOLS, the analysis reveals several critical insights: 🔹 Macroeconomic uncertainty peaks during recessions. 🔹 Subsectors respond homogeneously to uncertainty. 🔹 Impulsive responses indicate prolonged negative impacts of uncertainty on sectoral outputs. These findings underline the urgent need for policymakers to mitigate macroeconomic uncertainties and stabilise sectoral output, fostering a conducive environment for sustainable economic growth. I hope this paper adds value to ongoing discussions on economic stability and growth in Nigeria. I’d love to hear your thoughts and engage in meaningful conversations around these findings. The paper is available here: https://lnkd.in/eF_Z8BJW #EconomicResearch #Macroeconomics #SectoralOutput #Nigeria #Growth #PolicyInsights #ARDL #ResearchPublication #MacroeconomicUncertainty #ExchangeRateUncertainty #InterestRateUncertainty #RealGDPUncertainty #AgricultureSectorGDP #TransportSectorGDP #ICTSectorGDP #FinanceandInsuranceSectorGDP #ManufacturingSectorGDP #OilandGasSectorGDP #SolidMineralsSectorGDP #TradeSectorGDP #RealEstateSectorGDP #ConstructionSectorGDP 

Nigeria has “a market-determined exchange rate” which increases government revenue and reducing export cost for agriculture and manufacture products. They cut the petro subsidies. To fight inflation, the central bank raised interest rates. The author argues the long-term success of the economy will depend on prioritizing non-oil growth, assist vulnerable households from inflation, and foster the private sector. I hope they succeed. Volatile short-term capital flows will not help. If investing, stay for the long haul. Nigeria’s economic transformation must succeed https://on.ft.com/3Y2Ile6

Nigeria has marked a significant economic milestone with its current account balance showing a surplus of $1.432 billion in 2024, as reported by the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database. This figure marks a notable increase from the $1.21 billion surplus recorded the previous year, underscoring the country’s improved economic position on the global stage. https://lnkd.in/dsgrChGV

‼️Bulls vs Bears: Where is the Lusaka Securities Exchange Plc Headed⁉️ 🐂🐻 For investors closely watching the Lusaka Securities Exchange Plc (LuSE), one of the biggest questions is whether the market is set for a bullish upswing 🐂📈 or a bearish downturn 🐻📉. The bulls and bears are squaring off, each side armed with their analysis and convictions. ⚔️ The bulls argue that Zambia's economy is ripe for robust growth 🌱📈 after years of austerity and fiscal restraint. The new administration has emphasized policies to attract foreign direct investment 🌍💸, develop new industries 🏭, and boost exports 🚢. Coupled with rising copper prices, a key export 🔝⛏️, the bulls see the LuSE primed to ride the economic wave higher 🌊📊. They point to companies like ZCCM Investment Holdings and Copperbelt Energy Corporation as prime beneficiaries of the resurgent mining sector 🚜⚡. Tourist draws like Sun International could capitalize on a rebound in global travel ✈️🏨. And banks such as Standard Chartered and Stanbic may flourish from increased commercial and consumer lending 💳🏦. However, the bears remain skeptical that the promised economic renaissance will materialize so quickly 🤔⏳. They raise concerns about Zambia's still-high debt levels 📉💰, inflationary pressures 📈💸, and dependence on cyclical commodity exports 🔄🛢️. Political unrest and policy uncertainty could also spook foreign capital 🚨🧐. The bears are eyeing defensive sectors like telecommunications (AirtelZambia, MTN Zambia) 📱📶 and consumer staples (Zambeef, Zambian Breweries) 🍔🍻 that can better weather economic turbulence 🌪️⛑️. They suggest the lofty stock valuations already price in overly optimistic scenarios 🤑📊. Only time will tell whether the Lusaka bulls or bears have better analyzed the economic tea leaves ☕🔮. But the clash of their diametrically opposed views guarantees an electrifying run for the LuSE in the coming months ⚡📅. Sit tight and see whether Zambian equities charge ahead 🐂💨 or get mauled 🐻💥. ©️ Natasha M Lloyd #luse #economics #zambia #shares #bullorbear

Nigeria has marked a significant economic milestone with its current account balance showing a surplus of $1.432 billion in 2024, as reported by the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database. This figure marks a notable increase from the $1.21 billion surplus recorded the previous year, underscoring the country’s improved economic position on the global stage. https://lnkd.in/dTUsAK7T

NIGERIA'S COMPLEXITIES: UNPACKING THE COUNTRY'S CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, faces numerous challenges, from economic struggles to social and political tensions. This analysis will delve into the complexities of Nigeria's current situation, exploring key data points and trends to understand the country's obstacles and opportunities. Economic Overview - GDP growth rate: 2.5% (2022 est.) - Inflation rate: 18.6% (2022 est.) - Unemployment rate: 33.3% (2022 est.) - Poverty rate: 40.1% (2020 est.) Nigeria's economy faces significant challenges, including slow growth, high inflation, and widespread unemployment. The country's reliance on oil exports and limited economic diversification exacerbate these issues. Social and Political Landscape - Population growth rate: 2.6% (2022 est.) - Life expectancy: 59.2 years (2022 est.) - Literacy rate: 62% (2020 est.) - Corruption Perceptions Index: 146/180 (2022) Nigeria's social and political landscape is marked by rapid population growth, low life expectancy, and limited access to education. Corruption remains a significant obstacle to development. Opportunities and Solutions - Renewable energy potential: 74.2 GW (solar), 11.4 GW (wind) - Agricultural production: 25.4 million metric tons (cassava), 10.3 million metric tons (maize) - Human capital: 202 million people, 50% under 30 years old Nigeria has vast opportunities for growth and development, particularly in renewable energy, agriculture, and human capital. Nigeria's complexities require a nuanced understanding of the country's challenges and opportunities. By addressing economic, social, and political obstacles, Nigeria can unlock its vast potential and create a brighter future for its citizens. Yahaya Goje Investment Advisory Expert.