At the end of April, the EIA released a snapshot of wind-generated electricity use and development from 2010 to 2023. The data reveal some intriguing insights, relevant not only to ERCOT's constituents but nationwide. Despite over 6 GW of new installations, wind-generated electricity in 2023 reached an eight-year low—the first decline since the mid-1990s.
The EIA identifies several potential contributing factors: "The 2023 decline in wind generation indicates that wind as a generation source is maturing after decades of rapid growth. Slower wind speeds than usual affected wind generation in 2023, particularly during the first half of the year, when wind generation dropped by 14% compared to the same period in 2022. Wind speeds increased later in 2023, and wind generation from August through December was 2.4% higher than during the same period in 2022. Wind speeds had been stronger than usual during 2022."
It's important to note the comment, "slower wind speeds than normal affected wind generation in 2023..." This suggests that grid planners, who rely on historical data to anticipate grid supply, can sometimes be caught off guard when Mother Nature deviates from the norm.
Businesses, especially those with large industrial loads, need to closely monitor how renewables are integrated into their specific power suppliers/grids due to the significant secondary and tertiary impacts on their daily operations.
In ERCOT, wind and solar generation are crucial components of grid planning and real-time operations. However, when forecasts fail, the planned supply can be quickly depleted, and reserve margins become vulnerable. For example, in the last two weeks of April, wholesale energy prices spiked at $4500/MWh on two separate occasions due to demand exceeding the forecasted and planned supply at peak times (late afternoon when people return home). Often, the shortfall in actual wind and solar generation compared to the planned supply makes the grid highly vulnerable, increasing the risk of power outages and, in extreme cases, rolling blackouts.
Lastly, Texas accounts for 28% of the nation’s wind-generated electricity. One might think this gives us an advantage. However, especially in the Texas Triangle of San Antonio, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston—where population centers and the greatest demand for power are growing—this is not necessarily the case. Most of Texas' existing and new wind-generated electricity is produced in West Texas, creating a geographical imbalance that is challenging to manage, particularly with aged transmission and distribution infrastructure. Read more here: https://buff.ly/4dFGvXN
If you're looking for tailored solutions to manage your energy needs, RPower is here to help. Visit us at https://rpower1.com for more information.
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