Seth Nieman

Do consumers know CPG companies? This is a trend we’ve seen on the rise for the past 5 years, that I don’t think would have occurred if not for the digital shelf. However, I often wonder if the consumer looks at these as weird or doesn’t care? A couple thoughts… - Big Costco guy of course and still desperately waiting for Scan & Go. - P&G is the largest of the CPGs by market cap, but there’s a lot of undercover brands over the years that they have bought that don’t get rolled under these “line drives” - this is obviously a great basket building promotion (drives AOV up) but given the limited competition in some of their categories, this pits the shopper in a weird divide in my mind because so much of big CPG has been, up until this point, about the BRANDS. - building off that, if I’m a Cascade guy, that doesn’t translate to the same company that produces my laundry detergent or paper towels? Thoughts? Does this drive any LTV or HH penetration?

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DTC/Digital Native Brands struggle to achieve scale. CPG portfolio's are stagnating. Consumers are trading down, and retailers owned brands are disproportionately growing. Target, Costco, Trader Joes, and Aldi owned brands are winning. Now Walmart has launched a formidable new elevated basics brand, BetterGoods. The best way to beat the Amazon/Temu/Shein/TikTok marketplaces is to sell products they don't have.

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WHOLE FOODS MARKET vs. KROGER 2025 Food Trends. (And also some MINTEL, see comments below). In mid-October, Whole Foods Market released their 2025 Food Trend predictions. Two weeks later, so did Kroger. Predictions are just that, but they can validate what consumers and what we in CPG are seeing, or what we should take note of, possibly build innovation against, or simply buy to try. A side by side of five (5) food-specific #trends, from each #grocery chain, is compiled below, with G&Co. sentiments on the five. Of interest to me: • That Whole Foods Market visibly supported the #alcohol industry 🍺🍷🥂 in their list, while Kroger did not. And if you track alcohol sales as I do, the industry and those brands needs all the support they can get. • That Kroger plugged #privatelabel directly, with their “Food Dupes” trend, while Whole Foods Market integrated their own private label into brands that fit into trends. What they agree upon, I cite below. And I also flag the lists’ incongruity. Again, this side by side is food-specific, and does not weigh the packaging and sustainability trends called out by Whole Foods. #cpg #foodandbeverage #2025trends #foodtrends Mintel

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Target didn't just miss on revenue and earnings (20%!)- this was standing in the batters box and flailing wildly at a ball 3 feet off the plate. When you permanently lower prices on 10,000 items (including staples like diapers, bread, and milk), increase same store foot traffic by 2.4% YoY, and still have same store declines of 1.9% - all while your biggest rival, WalMart RAISES their quarterly and annual revenue forecast the day before - retailers and brands would be near criminally negligent not to take notice. Even front running the Holiday sale didn't help. Other take aways for brands to consider: ➡ Forecasting - Target now expects fourth-quarter comparable sales to be approximately flat. ➡ Consumer Demand- lingering softness in discretionary categories / deceleration in discretionary demand ➡ Consumer Strategy- Target offered discounts after hearing from shoppers about “the importance of value and affordability" ➡ Category growth: Customers gravitated toward food and everyday essentials during the quarter, along with beauty items (Comparable sales in beauty grew more than 6%). Two other categories, food & beverage and essentials, posted low single-digit gains compared with the year-ago period. Other Key take aways: ➡ Groceries account for about 60% of Walmart’s U.S. business but only about 23% of Target’s. ➡ "The retailer is contending with savvy and selective shoppers who aren’t willing to buy until the price is right....Consumers have become increasingly resourceful and strategic on how they shop” - TGT Chief Commercial Officer For as long as I can remember, if you're an emerging CPG company getting into Target was the holy grail. The collab with ULTA expanded the Heath and Beauty category and the "Target Shopper" embodied who brands catered to. That strategy appears to have holes - and you can bet when your share price drops by 20% while margins reduced across the board, category buyers will be extra diligent, selective and demanding with their assortments. Unit Velocity and high margin items will carry a premium. The other take away - and this is just my opinion - consumer fatigue has set in and demand is tapering off. I've written about Care Free Carrie and Anxious Anne in recent posts, as well as consumer debt being at an all time high. With Target forecasting a flat Holiday season YoY, brands and retailers need to be prepared and not wait too long to discount. This will be a holiday season driven by bargains.... and there is nothing AI can do about it. Where do you see holiday spending trending this year? #cpg #retail #branding #RetailTrends #ConsumerBehavior #RetailStrategy #ConsumerInsights #EmergingCPG #ConsumerDemand #InflationImpact #HolidayShopping #BrandStrategy #CPGTrends #MarketingInsights #SalesAndMarketing #CategoryGrowth

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Retail Today / Retail Renaissance: Tractor Supply’s run has finally cooled off, why? Tractor Supply Company What’s causing flat same store sales? DEI? Competition? Merchandising? Leadership? #DEI #competition #merchandising #leadership #growthstrategy With +2,400 stores, many of the easy rural locations have been built, so much of their new growth is in more city or suburban neighborhoods. A much tougher competitive environment, #homedepot #lowes #acehardware etc… #rural #city #suburbs How is merchandising adapting to this environment? 🧑🏻‍🌾 “Green Acres vs City Life” #shoppingexperience Here’s the opportunity, revist your growth strategy? Adjust your merchandising to reflect the new reality? Look at sales production by category and department. Change out your end caps to reflect a more promotional picture, driving “value”. Reduce salesfloor on rural feed items, expand dog/cat. Get out of Garden Retail, you don’t understand that business, “Coconuts vs Bananas”. #sales “Cookie Cutter merchandising is holding you back”. This week I visited two stores in the market. “Grab the opportunity, stop waiting on sales, drive them”! #opportunity #salesfloor Where are the “MERCHANTS”? #merchants The good news, most of your issues are in your control, it’s a matter of “4-wall mentality”. #retail #retailtrends #retailindustry #TopRetailExpert

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Premature distribution expansion is probably the most common and "difficult-not-to-make" startup mistake in CPG. In this context, brokers' and distributors' incentives are not aligned with those of the startup. As James Richardson explains in "Ramping Your Brand": "Since it will often take more than six months to figure out what is going on, brokers and distributors will have monetized your business just fine, even if you get delisted eventually.” This is also one to watch out for within the context of The Sprezzatura Company roll-up. Sometimes, other forms of value creation than expansion should be prioritized, and/or expansion must be done cautiously and slowly, closely monitoring the key metric: development of same-store sales per SKU per week.

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It’s All About The Experience At SGG and Associates, we are well into Q1 Earnings Season and our review of the 250 consumer facing companies that are competing for share of the consumer spend, loyalty and “mindset”. Especially striking is the extraordinary and growing divide between Walmart and Target. Walmart U.S. Comp Sales (x Fuel) were +3.8% while Target Total Comp Sales declined 3.7% There is no question that both retailers have broad appeal and audiences and offered a sense of value.  But their approaches to the consumer have dramatically changed. Target was always known as the “cool” big box store, with incredible designer capsule collections that created lines before store opening and sold out immediately. Walmart built their following on the promise of “always low prices” and incredible value. Their roles have changed dramatically.  Target just announced thousands of price cuts in their recent earnings report, a clear nod to the impact inflation has had on their customers, and an attempt to reverse their sales trend. A trip through Target will illuminate their almost complete shift to private labels. Walmart has introduced a balance of designer and private label brands. In their pilot “stores of the future” concept, these brands are showcased in “shops” complete with lifestyle presentations. Newness is continuously introduced into these stores. This concept test has worked and Walmart is now rolling the concept out nationally. But even more striking is the dramatic difference between Walmart and Target in the “customer experience”. At a recent visit to a newer Target store, we were greeted by an expansion of categories that were locked behind glass doors. This included everything from laundry detergent to Men’s socks and underwear. Pressing a red button on the case would supposedly summon an associate.. who never came. During the same week at several Walmart stores, associates were folding inventory, and refreshing displays. And, when asked about the location of a department, associates ( on numerous occasions) escorted us to the correct aisle. Indeed, it’s no wonder that Walmart Doug McMillon reported in last week’s earnings report that Walmart gains were coming from higher income customer. It’s not just about price.. it’s about creating a comprehensive and compelling customer experience that includes price, presentation and service. 

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Here are some interesting stories from the world of retail for Tuesday, November 5: 🌳 Dollar Tree Stores is searching for a new chief executive after Rick Dreiling stepped down from the company’s top role, citing health challenges. Shares of Dollar Tree have plunged more than 50% this year. 💰Kroger has finalized a $1.37 billion settlement in connection with the grocery chain’s role in the US opioid crisis, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford said Monday. 🇲🇽 Amazon Mexico, the e-tail giant’s Mexican subsidiary, has entered a strategic partnership with Jüsto that will see the regional online grocery retailer make its full product range available on Amazon. 👖 Associated British Foods has reported a 32% increase in adjusted full-year operating profit, driven by strong performances in its grocery division and at Primark. Primark saw a 53% rise in operating profits to £1.1bn 🗳️ High inflation remains the top economic issue cited by consumers ahead of Election Day, but U.S. households are expressing more optimism before heading into the voting booth. 📦 Returnless refunds are a tool that more retailers are using to keep online shoppers happy and to reduce shipping fees, processing time and other ballooning costs from returned products. 👕 ASOS.com has reported a pre-tax loss of £379.3m for the 12 months to September 1st, but emphasised that it can see the “green roots” of recovery after a painful two year turnaround. 🎯 Starting Friday, Target began dropping new deals every day and every week throughout the holiday season. Additionally, Target is launching a new early Black Friday sale from Thursday through Saturday. 🚲 Peloton is targeting millennial men with the first part of multiphase campaign. The friendly rivalry between football-playing brothers TJ and JJ Watt is the focus of “Find your push. Find your power" spot. 💊 Shares of hims & hers rallied after the wellness platform bumped its full-year sales forecast higher, as its efforts to offer more personalized care and more weight-loss drugs continue to draw subscribers. 🍎 Apple has been accused by the National Labor Relations Board of trying to prevent employees from discussing pay equity and pressuring an engineer who attempted to circulate an online survey about wages to quit. 🏢 Amazon is moving out of a Denny Triangle office building, shrinking its Seattle footprint as it continues to grow its presence in neighboring Bellevue. It has let its lease expire at the Metropolitan Park North building. 🇨🇳 China has launched a significant stimulus package, issuing 300bn yuan (approximately $42bn) in treasury bonds aimed at enhancing consumer goods through trade-in deals and equipment upgrades. 🛏️ Casper Sleep has found new owners. The online mattress brand has become a subsidiary of Carpenter Co., a manufacturer of polyurethane foams. #retail #retailnews #economy #DailyRetailNews

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“I thought it was absolutely essential to carve out our hard discount in a separate division” Bank told investors Thursday (Feb. 22). “I want to really operate the hard discounters as hard discounters.” Assortment strategy is one of the most important topics for CPG brands. Aldi, carries about 1400 SKUs. No Frills carries many many many more. If you don't know A) What are the two SKUs you need No Frills to carry, B) How to optimize that assortment for efficiency in labour and shoppability, 2026 might be painful. It's a long way away. But not that far away. (I have no actual knowledge on timing - but guessing that a transformation in a multitude of categories to a much more ltd assortment will take time. Some categories will likely face the pain much earlier). I'm looking forward (?) to hearing if Loblaws shares more on Hard Discount strategy at the supplier summit next week.

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Delighted to see my co written article with Deena Pitzele of The Partnering Group covered by Store Brands. As we look at Walmart launch of #bettergoods and unpick some of our view on the strategy behind the aspiration of achieving a $3b brand and ~300 lines. Is it to target new customers from competitive retailers such as Trader Joe's and Kroger or having seen how the #ukretailers and #australianretailers built their different strategies to combat the aggressive growth of Aldi UK and ALDI Stores Australia in the market, the start of their strategy focusing on the growth go ALDI USA #privatebrands #privatelabel #retail #usaretail #groceryretail #ownbrand #customerfocused #foodanddrink #growthstrategy #discounter #ukretail #australianretail #brandstrategy #productinnovation #consulting Greg Sleter Prof. Consulting Group Deena Pitzele (PLMA) Private Label Manufacturers Association Australia / New Zealand Food and Drink Exporters Association (FDEA) https://lnkd.in/e7gqA_HQ

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Walmart exceeded expectations for quarterly earnings and revenue. The company experienced significant e-commerce growth, with a 22% increase in its U.S. business. Walmart's grocery business benefited from the widening gap between the price of cooking at home and eating out. The convenience offered by Walmart attracted more high-income shoppers, with its delivery business surpassing store pickup in terms of volume. Walmart reported earnings per share of 60 cents (adjusted) compared to the expected 52 cents, and revenue of $161.51 billion compared to the expected $159.50 billion. Net income for Walmart increased to $5.10 billion, or 63 cents per share, compared to $1.67 billion, or 21 cents per share, in the previous year. Walmart's same-store sales for Walmart U.S. increased by 3.8%, excluding fuel, and same-store sales for Sam's Club rose 4.4% year over year, excluding fuel. E-commerce sales for Walmart U.S. grew by 22% year over year, driven by store pickup, delivery of online orders, and the company's third-party marketplace. Walmart's profits were boosted by newer businesses like advertising and its subscription-based membership program, Walmart+. The company's global advertising business grew by 24% during the quarter, with 26% growth in the U.S. segment. #walmart #earnings #retail #ecommerce

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Kroger released Q2 2024 earnings today reporting flat company sales, accelerating ID sales, and improved profitability offset by negative unit sales and minimal progress on market share.    The company slightly raised the low end of full-year guidance, facing easier comps in 2H24.   Flip through our top takeaways 👉   Download the full recap here: https://lnkd.in/g3UJUsQ3

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THe debut of Bettergoods marks Walmart’s largest private-label launch in the food and beverage category in 20 years. The items fall under three category pillars: 1) Culinary experiences: Items with “innovative” recipes, elevated ingredients and trendy offerings, such as a hot honey seasoning for $3 and a line of jar soups, including a creamy corn jalapeno chowder for $4. 2) Plant-based: Products feature distinct green branding, such as oatmilk non-dairy frozen desserts for $3.44 a pint and a $4 cheese alternative. 3) “Made Without”: Products that cater to different dietary lifestyles, such as gluten free, or made without artificial flavors, colorings or added sugars. Takeaway: Rising grocery prices in 2022, drove cost-conscious consumers to shift to private labels to save money.​ However, the reasons now extend beyond price - consumers continue to buy private brands for their quality, taste, and ability to meet their specific dietary needs. #walmart #privatebrands #commerce

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"Not a banana." Media friends! Vertically integrated retail media networks - revenue-focused or customer-focused? This is a whole new capability for most retailers. Certainly "not a banana" as one leader stated, referring to needs well outside of their organization's core competencies. With RMN spend projected to triple of the next 4 years from $54B to $160B, should retailers stay in their lane and outsource this service? These are big revenues, not side-hustle numbers. Most brands typically focus on producing excellent solutions for their customers, leaving agencies and 3rd parties to create numerous pieces of their E2E marketing and advertising deliverables. Should these same companies be expected to pay top dollar media fees to retailers that are admittedly in their infancy of RMN, simply because they own segments of the network. I'd love to hear from brands, that need to optimize their spend to serve their customers in the best fashion. I'd also love to hear from retailers, if they feel confident they can deliver on the tall ask of standing up a new arm of their business in rapid fashion and continue to, or improve upon, how they serve their customers. Is there concern of diluting current staffing, with the customer losing out? Perhaps I'm underestimating capabilities and overestimating the lift here, but it feels like brands will be paying a premium to retailers to figure out retail media's evolution over the next few years, while delivering accretive margin, in a way that they would never do when vetting and signing an agency. #retailmedia #marketing #retail

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Walmart needs to be careful and not lose focus on their main business engine. See more below: MediaPost has a story about how Walmart "is poised to become a non-retail powerhouse." Not that its retail business is taking a back seat to its other initiatives, but the story says that a new report from Deutsche Bank says that Walmart is "gathering steam from alternative value streams, which are boosting revenue and pumping up profits. Specifically, Walmart is doing well in five pools of opportunity within the ecommerce world, including Walmart Connect, its retail media network, membership fees, marketplace transactions, fulfillment services, and data monetization." Advertising, MediaPost writes, "is a significant component" - a $3.4 billion business growing as much as 25 percent annually and contributing 70 percent to margin. Krisztina Katai, an analyst who follows Walmart for Deutsche Bank, writes in an investment letter that management has defined these five new value streams as "key drivers in the underlying transformation of the business."

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We've identified 6 main operational pillars for leading execution in retail stores. One of those pillars is promotional execution. Here are some thoughts from ReStore for Retail, our Virtual Store Management platform.

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Let’s talk the power of RedMedia at Grocery Tech!

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