Scott Liebman

My latest Substack post analyzes $XOM once again catching $TSLA in terms of market cap. Last 5 qtrs: $XOM returned ~$40bb to shareholders via divvies, buybacks. $TSLA: $0.00 That is what really matters. But the key to investing is the second derivative, and as EV sales slow (good for demand for oil, obvs, and for $XOM) I fail to see the Silver Bullet for $TSLA. Why? Because Elon let his product line get old. No amount of robotaxi/FSD necromancy is going to change that. Trade accordingly. Excelsior! --Jim

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93

The graph in this article shows the WACC and the percentile rankings of 41 US BSL #CLO managers based on their average percentile across at least 10 of their deals from the 2013 to 2023 vintages, according to asset prices as of May 28, 2024. It is interesting to note that managers with a primary CLO blended DM print of below 190 bps are represented across the performance percentiles. In other words, managers in both the top and bottom quartiles managed to print their CLO liabilities with a blended DM of less than 190 bps. If you’re an investor in the CLO market, we invite you to register with us using your business email address to gain complimentary access to our freemium content.

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New or smaller VC, PE or HF manager? AUM less than $50 million? Great Performance? Trying to raise assets? Struggling and failing?   WHY? = Poor or non-existent MARKETING PROCESS. see the data!   Despite what many new and smaller managers FIRMLY believe “performance” does not raise assets, it merely brings a degree of attention.   If it were true that “performance” was the catalyst to raise assets, many smaller managers would have little difficulty growing AUM.   Raising assets is about three (3) critical components: PEOPLE, RELATIONSHIPS & TRUST.   In fact, research shows that of the 3, "TRUST" is THE key to raise assets.   TRUST > TRADE/TRANSACTION.   This is particularly true in the current climate of “low-trust”: Investors are risk averse, stringently selective and idiosyncratically demanding.   In such an environment, raising assets is more challenging and difficult than most new and smaller sub-institutional understand. It's often only after a long period of trying to raise assets from performance with little success, that many come to realize the allocation decision by an investor is about much more than investment performance alone.   “Pitching & Posting” (performance + content) does not build TRUST. The truth is those activities undermine TRUST and do not help build relationships: NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR A “PITCH” and few read content.   With investors that are inundated with content on a daily basis, hyper-skeptical and highly-informed with access to better information to make allocation decisions, it takes a consistently “well-executed” “investor-centric” structured, focused and disciplined MARKETING PROCESS to raise assets.   However, 81% of new and smaller managers do not have a marketing process.   The lack of marketing process in the hedge fund space results in:   A. 89% NEVER reach $100 million AUM B. 76.4% ‘tap out’ their investor network within 1 year C. +50% close within 3 years of launch.   Simple: “NO MARKETING PROCESS” = “”NO SUCCESS RAISING ASSETS”. Since 2011, Johnson & Company has specialized in marketing process development and execution for "sub-institutional" managers, those with AUM less than $50 million. 25 years experience, expertise and skill uniquely equips a new or smaller manager with the information, insight, instruction and intelligence that optimizes marketing process execution to maximize the success, efficiency, economy, expedience and effectiveness of raising assets. There is a lot of BS, hype and completely wrong information about marketing and fundraising for managers with less than $50 million AUM. For smaller managers to succeed raising assets, it's mandatory to get beyond all that and get the "FACTS" and "DATA". If you’re a new or smaller manager struggling and failing to raise assets, get the "FACTS" and "DATA" here: https://johnsn.com/facts After that, if you’d like a candid, no-nonsense conversation about marketing and raising assets, contact me I welcome the opportunity. [email protected]

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Fake jobs, fake clients, fake names, and fake firms, I am half shocked, half not. A lot of the time when a firm presents "market mapping" or "intel", this is how they get the data. Whether its a crime or not, this is a massive breach of trust, especially in a business where trust, discretion, and reputation are so important. I get asked a lot by candidates to ensure discretion, which we have always made paramount, and this is why. Sadly, it taints our professions name. I founded H-Squared as I didn't like the traditional model, one size does not fit all, and you can deliver the high level of service without compromising on quality, and in this case, morals.

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A fascinating article in WSJ highlights the impact of removing rent controls: Argentina removed rent controls 1) Supply increased by over 170% 2) Rent growth slowed to a 3-year low 3) Rentals became easier to find, with many renters getting better deals 4) Inflation cooled —— - Argentina’s 2020 rental law required three-year contracts and rents paid in pesos, a rapidly devaluing currency - Rent increases were capped annually by the central bank, based on inflation and wages - Landlords raised starting rents to protect against inflation, making new leases unaffordable - Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Buenos Aires increased 27-fold from 2019 - Some landlords sold properties or turned to short-term rentals like Airbnb to earn in dollars - Informal rentals and black-market deals became common, while some properties were left vacant By 2022, there were some 200,000 empty properties in Buenos Aires, up 45% from 2018, according to a report by Cedesu, a Buenos Aires-based policy group that focuses on urban development. Finding an affordable apartment under the rent-control law was difficult. —— None of this is surprising is it ? It’s not just landlords who oppose rent controls—history, economics, and academia strongly back the case against them. If we want to improve rental affordability, the focus needs to be on SUPPLY - building significantly more housing. Anything else is a distraction that keeps us from addressing the real issues - LACK OF SUPPLY OF GOOD HOUSES. Argentina serves as a cautionary tale for officials in the U.S. and Europe who are considering rent controls to address rising housing costs. #Argentina #Milei #rentcontrols

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New or smaller VC, PE or HF manager? AUM less than $50 million? Great Performance? Trying to raise assets? Struggling and failing?   Sounds all too familiar: It’s due to poor or non-existent marketing Let’s get real about raising assets for “sub-institutional” managers, those with AUM between $0 and $50 million. IT’S HARD AND A STRUGGLE.   Raising assets in a crowded, hyper-competitive, complex and complicated market from investors that are risk averse, stringently selective and idiosyncratically demanding is more challenging and difficult than most new and sub-institutional managers understand. The fact is the majority of sub-institutional managers fail to get AUM beyond personal capital long with small amounts from family and friends even when they have exceptional performance. Plainly speaking: There is a lot of BS, hype, propaganda and completely wrong information about marketing and fundraising for small managers with AUM less than $50 million Since 2011, Johnson & Company has specialized in meeting the marketing challenges for "sub-institutional" managers. 25+ years experience, expertise and skill uniquely equips a new or smaller manager with the FACTS and proven structured, disciplined and focused PROCESS supported by independent high-integrity data and research, accurate information, objective insight, expert instruction and frontline intelligence that optimizes marketing process execution to maximize the success, efficiency, economy, expedience and effectiveness of raising assets. If you’re a new or smaller manager, with AUM less than $50 million struggling and failing to raise assets, first get the facts: https://johnsn.com/facts If after your review of the “FACTS”, you’d like a candid, no-nonsense conversation about marketing and raising assets, contact me, I welcome the opportunity. [email protected]

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BIG PICTURE: 𝗜𝗧𝗦 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗔𝗕𝗢𝗨𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗗𝗘𝗕𝗧 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧. 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗗 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗜𝗦 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗔 𝗟𝗢𝗨𝗗 𝗠𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗔𝗚𝗘. 𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗬𝗢𝗨 𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚???? Thanks for sharing James W. The chart below goes back to 1989 and it looks at the amount of rate cuts/hikes bond markets were pricing for the subsequent 2 years. I focused on periods when the bond market was very, very dovish and it priced in a robust amount of cuts. The big question is: what did the Fed ACTUALLY deliver? Did one make or lose money by buying bonds when markets were already super dovishly priced? Let's look at the data: 1️⃣ January 1995, October 1998 Cuts priced for the next 2 years: on average 130 bps Cuts delivered by the Fed: 75 bps If you bought bonds while markets were already at peak dovish pricing, you lost money (cuts delivered were less than priced in). 2️⃣ January 1990, December 2000, September 2007, August 2019 Cuts priced for the next 2 years: on average 145 bps Cuts delivered by the Fed: 412 bps (!) If you bought bonds while markets were already at peak dovish pricing, you ended up making a ton of money. The results are very interesting. As a rule of thumb, I always advocate that in macro you don’t make money by only ‘’being right’’. That’s a necessary but insufficient condition: you also need to surprise consensus, or in other words see something before the crowd does + position correctly for it + monetize when they converge to your view. Yet it seems like the bond market is quite good at sniffing when something is about to go wrong. UNQUOTE Most global investors are analyzing the debt market very closely. Facts are in vogue. Stay on top of the markets with 善萨伊德Shan Saeed #Debtmarket #Yieldcurve #Interestrates #Markets #Valuation #Bonds #Globaleconomy #Centralbanks #Equities #Commodities #Realestate #History #CNN #CNBC #WSJ #NBC #FT #NYT #CBS #Monetarypolicy #Inflation #1970s

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Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) declares $0.98/share quarterly dividend, same as the previous one. Forward Yield: 6.53% Payment Date: July 31. Ex-Dividend Date: June 28. AGNC Investment (NASDAQ: AGNC) declares $0.12/share monthly dividend, same as the previous one. Forward Yield: 14.58% Payment Date: July 10. Ex-Dividend Date: June 28. UDR (NYSE: UDR) declares $0.425/share quarterly dividend, same as the previous one. Forward Yield: 4.26% Payment Date: July 31. Ex-Dividend Date: July 10. EPR Properties (NYSE: EPR) declares $0.285/share monthly dividend, same as the previous one. Forward Yield: 8.44% Payment Date: July 15. Ex-Dividend Date: June 28. Cherry Hill Mortgage (NYSE: CHMI) declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, same as the previous one. Forward Yield: 16.00% Payment Date: July 31. Ex-Dividend Date: June 28. Host Hotels & Resorts (NASDAQ: HST) declares $0.20/share quarterly dividend, same as the previous one. Forward Yield: 4.37% Payment Date: July 15. Ex-Dividend Date: June 28. * not an investment recommendation #dividends #passiveincome #investments #realestate #stocks

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Trump ❤️ Bitcon Former president and 2024 Republican candidate Donald Trump outlined a plan to turbocharge crypto growth and make the US a crypto mining powerhouse in his keynote address to the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference on 27/7/24. *🇺🇸 Donald Trump 2024 Bitcoin Conference Speech Recap:* • On day one I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman. • Create a US Government strategic national Bitcoin stockpile if elected. • US Government will keep 100% of Bitcoin it owns • Bitcoin is going to the moon. • Never sell your Bitcoin • Bitcoin will one day probably surpass the market cap of Gold. • I reaffirm my pledge to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. • There will never be a CBDC while I am President of the United States. • Bitcoin and crypto will skyrocket like never before if elected president. • Bitcoin is not threatening the dollar, the current U.S. government is threatening the dollar. • The United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world. • Bitcoin stands for freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government coercion and control. • I pledge to the Bitcoin community that the day I take oath of Office, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris' anti-crypto crusade will be over. Outlook : The US Federal Reserve currently includes assets like gold and foreign (fiat) currencies. They’re used as credit lines to keep the US economy stable, particularly in times of crisis. Many have criticized the US Treasury to “print money” during Covid-19, which has led to lasting inflation. Adding bitcoin to the reserve could, cut their debt in half.

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Apart from the 12 'underwater' deals previously mentioned, there are 29 additional US BSL #CLO deals, as outlined in this premium article. These would experience impairment in their single-B tranches under a scenario where underlying assets... (This article is behind a paywall. If you're interested in learning about the pricing for premium content, please don't hesitate to email me at [email protected].)

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A rule of thumb for investment research reports says that if the title is a question, the correct answer is almost invariably "𝗡𝗼". (*) But in this specific case, I’m inclined to say that “esoteric” asset classes can be interesting diversifiers for a multi factor portfolio of risk premia (to be included in the illiquid bucket). “𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗘𝘀𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗛𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘀? 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝘀𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆.” https://lnkd.in/gvdk4G8q (*) Examples: "Will the Fed get inflation under control?" "Is investing in crypto exchanges a good idea?" “Is this the end of the world and how to trade it?”

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Marathon Asset Management is pleased to announce the reset of Marathon CLO 2020-15. The reset reinstated the CLO's reinvestment period for another five years and upsized into a $462 Million structure. The fact that a CLO manager has the ability to lower its liability cost via refinancing, while also extending maturities through a reset is one more factor while CLO Equity is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity. Resets and refinancings have the potential to add additional cash-flow that accrues to the CLO Equity.

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Initially the Producer Price Index (PPI) looked problematic as it increased 0.5%, which easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Looking further into the report though, the March reading was revised from an initially reported 0.2% gain to a decline of 0.1%, which more than accounted for this month’s beat. Looking on a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.2% and core PPI was 2.4%. While the core PPI increase was the biggest annual move since August 2023, I still don’t believe it’s at a problematic level considering the Fed’s 2% target. #ppi #producerpriceindex #consumer #consumerspending #stock #stockmarket #investing #investors #inflation #economy

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MSO earnings season starts this week, with eight of the top ten US operators reporting. Consensus analyst expectations are for the top ten MSOs to show a Q/Q 2.62% contraction in revenue and adjusted EBITDA to decline 6.18%. (1/3) The top ten MSOs' Y/Y revenue is expected to grow by 3.20%, and AEBITDA is expected to expand by 17.30%. Analysts predict the highest Y/Y revenue growth for Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) at +22.40%, and Cresco Labs is predicted to have the best Y/Y improvement in AEBITDA at +62.00%. Finally, here are some of the companies reporting this week: May 7: Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) May 8: Green Thumb Industries (GTI), Verano, MariMed, Inc. May 9: Curaleaf, Trulieve, TerrAscend, Cannabist, Jushi Holdings Inc. Source: FactSet

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I just posted my latest #StockMarket note and commentary, "'Jackets and Packets' Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)..." You can find it here 👇👇 https://lnkd.in/ehpAtsCk

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