Ryan Fitzpatrick

After spiking during the pandemic, profit margins and same-store sales growth have fallen back to pre-pandemic levels for the grocery industry, FMI — The Food Industry Association said in a report released last week. Only 38% of surveyed food retailers said they expect their same-store sales to grow in 2024 while just 13% predict net profits will increase, according to the trade group’s The Food Retailing Industry Speaks 2024 report. Food retailers are focusing on improving cost controls and cutting unnecessary expenses that do not drive value, FMI found. In 2023, profit margins in the grocery industry hit 1.6% — the lowest level since it was 1% in 2019 — as total expenses increased, FMI found. The industry’s slowed same-store sales growth of 2.1% last year was driven by inflation.

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This is interesting US BEER IRI grocery sell thru data from last 26wks Sept 2024 comparing alcoholic beer sell thru vs non-alcoholic beer sell thru where non-alc beer has ~73% slower velocity vs alc beer. Strange that non-alc beer the top 10-50% of beers is only 0.3 units slower vs the top 10% segment(this differs a lot from alc beer which has a 6.8 unit difference). I'm curious if this can mean that there isn't really one dominant non-alc beer SKU on shelf, but the consumer is being promiscuous in buying a few different non alcs brands and/or variety of SKUs when they fill their cart. Anyone else have any ideas on this? NOTE units could be anything from a 24ct case, 12pk, 6pk, 4pk, or even a single unit so need to make some assumptions where for non-alc beer the typical retail format is a 6pk or 12pk so the top 10% sales velocity is 3.3 units/week could equate to 20-40 cans/bottles per week. Either way some interesting data to benchmark your sales off prem.

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SAFE NOTES ARE NOW UNSAFE... OK so what is going to happen to the money that was poured into CPG Brands via these supposed SAFE Notes? Issue is that no priced round took place and now it is likely if it did happen it would be at a fraction of the valuation that was contemplated leading to massive dilution for the founder. Many have a cap...few have a floor. and unless they are converted it will be impossible to raise new money at any valuation. #cpg #safenotes #fundraising

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We all saw what happened when Wendy's announced the potential for a dynamic pricing model. People were not pleased. I'm not sure that will entirely kill the possibility of dynamic pricing eventually rolling out in the industry, but it did put the brakes on it for the short term. What about surveillance pricing? As this article from Reuters covers (https://lnkd.in/e_JdG5rB), there is the possibility that surveillance pricing will allow companies to charge individuals more based on past searches, purchases, and any other number of data points. Now, there's an economic basis for some of this. If demand increases at certain times or for certain products, prices can go up...welcome to supply and demand. We see this playing out all the time without all of the surveillance or high-tech traffic tracking. Dynamic pricing is, essentially, the high-tech and real time version of this principle, whether we really like it or not. Surveillance pricing, however, is something else entirely. But, is it surprising this is happening. In the industry, we're talking about the possibility of creating hyper-customized products based on a person's DNA or other bio-data. Wouldn't it also follow that pricing would become that individualized as well? But that makes more sense for products that are distinctly different rather than individualized prices for the same product. Either way, I think we can expect more of this type of activity as technology allows for this level of individual behavior surveillance and analysis. #innovation #trends2024 #pricingstrategy #foodservice #retail #cpg #foodandbeverageindustry #restaurants #technology #economy #menumattersllc

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Seinfeld fans: Remember the one about the yogurt shop?   Kramer invests in a “non-fat” frozen yogurt shop whose product is both delicious … and deliciously crowd-pleasing.   The only problem? The yogurt’s flavor-boosting ingredient turns out to be (spoiler alert) fat, spurring the shop’s angered fan base to cry false advertising.   Bogus product claims can land businesses and brands in hot water, and fast. This harsh truth is why, at GoTo Foods, we’ve woven education on marketing, claims and trademark law into our annual compliance training.   Like most big corporations, each year our associates must participate in several hours of compliance training. And while everyone completes certain trainings—such as sexual harassment awareness and AI policy updates—we also take this opportunity to connect associates with courses tailored to their roles.   Marketing and trademark education, for example, is earmarked for members of our PR, social media, marketing and brand teams. Those teams, and the seven incredible brands they support, manage a robust and far-reaching social media presence, and it’s imperative that each individual has a good working knowledge of what is—and is not—considered appropriate when it comes to logos, trademarks, images, cross-promotion and product claims.   [Case in point: Mentioning Seinfeld as a point of entry to compliance talk? A-OK. Photoshopping Jerry and the gang inside a Carvel to illustrate the point? That’s a no-no.]   For our international and retail channels/licensing teams, we require training on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and Office of Foreign Assets Control, providing valuable insights into international  trade sanctions and anti-corruption policies (like the fact that simply gifting a bottle of wine, under certain circumstances, could be perceived as a bribe!). For other teams, we’ve developed joint employer risk training to assist in compliance with ever evolving laws and regulations around the franchisor-franchisee relationship.   We know people are, hands down, the most important resource to any company. However, without the right investments and guidance, they can also be the biggest liability. That’s why we even make our compliance training a prerequisite for individual team members to receive their annual bonuses.   Like it or not, ignorance of the law doesn’t free us from accountability to it—and at GoTo Foods, one of the ways we’re developing people and potential is by empowering our associates with the knowledge they need for informed, independent decision making.   After all, it’s that knowledge base that helps our colleagues think more strategically, problem solve with confidence and engage a “No Limits” mindset that leads to the craveable experiences our guests love.   #GoToFoods  #CorporateCompliance #TrademarkTraining  #CareerDevelopment  #NoLimits #InternationalLaw #SocialMediaTraining

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https://lnkd.in/g_xTyu_z the demand of fibers has risen sharply in harmony with consumer demand particularly with folks that are using #glp-1 agonists. But, fibers provide so much more like mouthfeel, humectancy, fat emulation just to name a few. Check out my lasted Icon Foods post on best practices for soluble fibers and let me know your thoughts.

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Another PSA on sugar companies not to work with. We were introduced to a supposed seller of sugar, or rather a professional marketing company claiming to be a seller of sugar, Brahm and their sales rep Mark Nichols based in the Us. Very suspicious as both Brahm and their sales rep Mark placed tremendous emphasis on producing videos of themselves in a sugar mill as proof of their access to sugar. Not to mention the sales rep claimed he had sold sugar to multiple buyers but not once met the seller in person or made a single trip to Brazil. And every time we asked details he became agitated, a red flag. Then we found some suspicious litigation cases in which Brahm was in breach of contract. Despite all of the above, we waited to see them produce an FCO based on our agreed terms. Three versions of FCO’s later, the pricing and terms were not what was agreed upon. Same ole fake it till you make it “seller” scheme, in which they make promises they cannot deliver and with constantly moving goal posts.

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Top 5 tips on building and maintaining strong relationships with retailers to secure shelf space and drive sales: 1. Meeting initial item set-up timelines with incredible accuracy 2. Updating the Retailer on any changes in the supply channel 3. Once establishing the cost of the shelf space, promote and invest to drive sales. Makes no sense to say “ I don’t have enough left to fund the requested programs.” 4. Be smart and be able to frequently review ROI on any tool or program that is used to be sure you are spending marketing dollars efficiently. 5. Continuous Evaluation, Continuous Improvement: The journey doesn't end with a deal. #cpg #retail #shelfspace

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CPG HOT TAKE ‼️ BRAND will be the sole determining factor behind a company’s success We are seeing more retailers move more towards private labeled products. Why not? It’s higher margin and lower cost to the consumer. With most of the retailers getting hammered in the press for high prices. They will be able to lower the SRP and make more money Where does this leave CPG products? Why will a consumer pay more for a very similar product? We are seeing 7 Eleven pushing their Fusion energy($2.79) at BOGO vs Celcius ($2.89) at BTGO.. Brands like Celcius will really have to dive deep into marketing and brand spends to dig that moat. Keeping consumers loyal to their identity and brand community What will separate your PRODUCT as a BRAND consumers feel the need to spend a little bit more for the same (-ish?) product TBD!

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National Beer Sales & Production Data Summary Overall U.S. beer production and imports were down 5% in 2023, while craft brewer volume sales declined by 1%, raising small and independent brewers’ share of the U.S. beer market by volume to 13.3%. Retail dollar sales of craft increased 3%, to $28.9 billion, and now account for 24.7% of the $117 billion U.S. beer market (previously $115 billion). The primary reasons for the larger dollar sales increase were price increases and slightly stronger onsite sales growth versus distribution. These statistics use the craft brewer definition of a small and independent brewer, as well as six craft beer industry market segments as defined by the Brewers Association. More up to date statistics and analysis can be found in the Insights & Analysis section of the website. [email protected] whatsapp+8618963053908 #BeerSales #brewery #glassbottles

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This New & Small Supplier AAP from KeHE Distributors is looking pretty promising from the outset. It's not breaking news, but looks like it's rolling out in December 2024. What do #cpgindustry folks think? What I know... New Suppliers defined as less than 1 year. Small Suppliers defined as less than $500k in annual business with KeHe (pretty generous IMO). NIP fees (I don't know if that includes DC opening fees) are going away. MCB processing fees gone. Intro allowance gone. Just those alone are big one-time fees that can be very tough for small and new brands to shoulder. The 2% allowance seem very reasonable. And best of all, you can build that into your plan easily. Makes the math a lot easier. But what am I missing? Anyone feel like this is NOT a good program? (Note: screenshot below was taken directly from KeHe's email announcing the program will go into effect December 2024). #mondayvibes #grateful #smallbusiness #goodnews

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Attention Food Industry Pros: If high food prices - whether you are a manufacturer (trying to secure product), a distributor, retailer, packer, cooker, and retailer - especially smaller, independent grocery stores - and you're still seeing high wholesale food costs, and continuing to see supply change issues - not enough product and disgruntled consumers - Marvell Foods, the nation's top Food Broker, Trader and a leader in the secondary food market, can be the answer to the question - how do I get more product(s) at lower cost, diversify my inventory, keep customers and attract new ones? Check out this blog post explaining how we can instantly add value to your business - oh, by the way, if you're sitting on close -coded or dated inventory taking up storage and costing you money, we can also buy that or sell it for you - turn a depreciating asset into revenue FAST! Contact us today....

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https://lnkd.in/g7bYaUmg Consumers frequently search for fruit inclusions when reaching for bakery goods and snacks. However, in addition to fruity flavor, they’re often shopping for new and novel ingredients, reduced sugar content, and other characteristics that can be a challenge for producers to deliver. To learn more about trends and tricks around incorporating fruit into bakery and snack products, Snack Food & Wholesale Bakery touched base with Thom King, CEO and chief food scientist with Icon Foods. Amazing coverage by Jenni Spinner for Snack Food & Wholesale Bakery Icon Foods inclusions don't only add #noaddedsugar pizzaz, excitement, and a burst of flavor, they also help drive down water activity to extend shelf life. Imagine that!

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This has to be at least part of CPG value prop. It’s the same value that will draw $30 for a burger. (Under the right circumstances.) It’s important to note that McDonald’s cant do this. And you can’t do what McDonald’s can. And you don’t want to. But like CPG, this restaurant isn’t competing with Micky D’s. A half a pound of USDA black angus. Perfectly cooked, medium rare. Dripping with emmentaler cheese. Layered with sliced portobello. And topped with farm cut bacon. Not your casual burger. It’s not the food per say; it’s the experience. That’s why restaurant revenue will hit $1T in 2024. For the first time in US History. Even in a tough Economy. As long as there’s income, it will go somewhere. And most likely, it will be attracted to experience. What experience are you giving your customer? And does your customer really know that? #cpg #cpggrowth #foodinnovation

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Know farms, know food. No farms, no food. For me small farms mean more variety in produce. Small farms mean more money in our local economies. Small farms mean lower carbon emissions (by food not traveling from other states/countries). Small farms mean eating in season. And small farms also mean knowing where your food comes from, how it's grown and the dedication and passion of the person/farmer growing it. #soilhealth #regenerativeagriculture #organicfarming #smallfarms #localfarms #organic #farming

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Headline not matching the accompanying story I’m afraid. Jon Moramarco calls the data “muddy” at best. My own impressions are that many wholesalers have cut their post-pandemic inventories by reducing SKU counts. This by extension disadvantages the smaller producers who consume as much staff time as the larger ones and often sell products with less predictable sales trajectories. There are advantages to marginalising smaller producers both in staff time and capital, but large producers have the power to dictate their wholesaler’s inventory levels sometimes under the threat of pulling their lines with potentially devastating consequences. Wholesaler inventory levels are not necessarily an indicator of the health of the market or consumer behavior.

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This week's citation is a bit late. FMI- The Food Industry Association is a resource that provides the food industry with original insights. What I particularly liked about a recent study release - “Assessing the Impact of Wine Sale Reform: A Case Study of Tennessee” - is the partnership with Michigan State and the use of synthetic controls to address the problem of estimating an impact of a small sample (a single state in this example). "Through this research, we have shown that allowing wine sales in grocery stores does not lead to liquor store closures as some would suggest, and in fact has positive benefits for the state in increased tax revenues while at the same time giving consumers greater options for making their wine purchases.” You have to be a member of FMI to download the report with the detailed methodology and additional insights. The above quote comes from the press release (free version). If you are like me and need a refresher on synthetic controls (SCM) Udemy has many to choose from.

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Fabulous post by Kimberly Decker for Food & Beverage Insider . Positive allosteric modulators like ThauSweet DRM can enhance your flavors and carry them though off-notes. Let me get you a sample.

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🚚 Navigating the Big USA CPG Distributors 🚚 Understanding your value chain heading into any market is so important... 🚛 Which distributors deliver to what channels, retailers and regions? ❄️ What capability do you need? 💰 Do you know the service fees, charge backs, deductions, scan backs, early/late payments, new store activations, free fills, new DC fees? 💸 Can you still make an acceptable margin (ie. make money?) ⚖️ Will your product land on shelf at a price that consumers will pay based on your value proposition? There are 62,383 Supermarkets & Grocery Stores businesses in the US as of 2023 and there are over 25 different distribution models to access these channels. Having a clear strategy about which ones are right for you (and what you can afford!) will set you up for the best chance of success in the market. Startup CPG have teamed up with Cultivate to host a webinar on how to work with the major distributors in the US market, including real life examples. 💰 Basic costs of working with UNFI and KeHE Distributors - the two largest distributors to utilise to access natural and conventional grocery 💪 Strategies to strengthen your brand’s distribution and expand your reach Register here for the event ↪ https://lnkd.in/g8YBra2S

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