Roman Lefranc

👉 M2 now positive with rates at 5.5%. And rate cuts/QE/YCC are just a matter of time https://lnkd.in/e7C679Tx ~~~ #finance #web3 #FED #investors #interestrates #crypto #inflation #startups #stocks #wallstreet #IPOs #QT #VCs #bitcoin #Ethereum #ETFs

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Fake jobs, fake clients, fake names, and fake firms, I am half shocked, half not. A lot of the time when a firm presents "market mapping" or "intel", this is how they get the data. Whether its a crime or not, this is a massive breach of trust, especially in a business where trust, discretion, and reputation are so important. I get asked a lot by candidates to ensure discretion, which we have always made paramount, and this is why. Sadly, it taints our professions name. I founded H-Squared as I didn't like the traditional model, one size does not fit all, and you can deliver the high level of service without compromising on quality, and in this case, morals.

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Banc of California shareholder expectations were dashed this morning as the financial servicces company reported lower revenue, lower cash, and significantly lower earnings than expected—reporting 12 cents in the second quarter versus analyst estimates around 19 cents—the disappointing results are sending shares back down this morning to price levels of two weeks ago. Shares are down -7.6%. Running Point and I were quoted this morning by Boursorama and TradingView in an article titled, "Banc of California shares fall on concerns over rising provisions." Reporting by Manya Saini. QUOTED EXCERPT "The hike in their provision for credit losses may unnerve some investors, especially if they feel that the bank may be playing catch-up with reserves and not getting ahead of the game," said Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. 🔜 --> In other words, they may need to increase real estate loan provisions again over the next couple quarters. #banks ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. This is not investment advice and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-104

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The M&A market has been impacted by regulatory challenges that have widened spreads and created uncertainty in deal closings. Anusha Rodriguez, Head of Research & Due Diligence and Head of Alternative Investments for Oppenheimer Asset Management, is joined by Jake Turner, an Associate Portfolio Manager at Kite Lake Capital Management, to discuss the drivers of merger arbitrage and the potential risks and returns. Together, they cover catalysts for deals such as technological innovation, revenue cliffs, growth expectations, and synergies. Additionally, they evaluate cross-border deals and consider regulatory complexities and geopolitical tensions. https://bit.ly/3x5bNqi #ThePowerofOppenheimerThinking #LetsTalkFuture #EventDrivenInvesting

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Dollar/Gold Disorder creates Mutation in Global Weaponized Dysfunctional Economic Mismangement Northern economies have overextended themselves on perpetual global South subjigation by weaponization of currency or debt distribution hollowing out the inflated unproductive dollar asset values of improbable promissary returns. Weaponizing those artficial values via distribution subjigation & fiat gold debasement weakening divide conquer methods,explioting the national self concept by fiat dependent psychology. Billionaires have built bunkers,bought larger yacths & foriegn passports. The financial nihlism is floated in interest rate & inflationary Orwellian Newspeak of delayed data as the JPN Yen & derivative assets meet the illiqudity crisis of dislocated money creation, collapsing Treasury intervention demand from unproductive non restrictive debt. Gold based BRICS are unhappy with the systemic egocentric bias of Nothern central bank mismanagement by the inflationary distribution design against western citizens & the Global South in the current global order. But we also sense that they are not seeking to establish an alternate order but to strengthen & reform the current one such that mutually agreed upon norms are applied equally & justly to all nations. However, BRICS tradionally have been exploitable to divide conquere via dollar dependency & an egocentric arrested development to equality via the national self concept. Only China,Russia & gradually Saudi Arabia of the G-20 countries lack the long view on dollar dependency.Saudi warned it could sell off EU debt holdings in retaliation to a move by the G-7 to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets. G-20 Forums can be the vehicle for the reforms that BRICS seek. But there are exploitable conflicts between India & China, Saudi Arabia & Iran to a lesser extent Egypt & Ethiopia, which effects the forum’s ability to act more decisively. BRICS will have to either limit its membership to nations without hostilities or develop a robust internal system of conflict resolution. Human reality is fundamentally emotional.The nature of emotion comprises something which prevents humans from giving it objective view. Therefore to give a clear definition of emotion is essentially problematical. Ego hinders conflict resolution as individuals associate arguments with their self-concept,leading to ego-threat opposition,triggering competitive behavior & escalating conflicts.Ego-depletion increases selfish decision making, but also increase self-conflict & regret about dependent decisions. But the fact that BRICS has emerged from mismanagement & is being taken seriously clearly indicates that there is a need & an active demand for change at the moment there is no better hope than BRICS to bring about evolution & systemic preservation of cooperation.One of your greatest opponents to the self is hidden in place you would never look.UBS says investors holding gold 2-3 years see gold above 4,000 US dollars."

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8 OCT 2024 Fraser Irving Kite Lake soft closes flagship fund amid gains KL Special Opportunities Fund has raised $400m this year https://lnkd.in/erENUv3g London-based hedge fund Kite Lake Capital has soft closed its flagship offering after boosting firm wide AuM to more than $2bn. The KL Special Opportunities Fund closed to new investment earlier this month after raising more than $400m in new capital this year. The fund now manages approximately $1.7bn, while the firm oversees about $2.3bn. Kite Lake’s other funds, KL Event Driven Ucits, KL EM Credit Opportunities Fund and the KL Recovery Fund remain open to investors. The KL Opportunities Fund is up 7.5% YTD through September and has posted positive annual returns since inception in 2011. The fund, which trades an event-driven strategy across merger arbitrage, reorganisations, credit events, distressed and corporate events, gained 15bps in September, it is understood. It returned 10.8% last year and 14.4% in 2022, according to With Intelligence data. The average event-driven hedge fund tracked by With is up 6% YTD and returned 8% last year. Kite Lake was founded by ex- Cheyne investment professionals Massoumeh Khadjenouri and Jan Lernout. The firm has since bolstered its ranks and how has 23 employees after recently hiring operations analyst Anna Przelawski who joined following a stint at Brooklands Fund Management. Kite Lake confirmed the details.

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The 𝗤𝟮’𝟮𝟰 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 is out! M&A activity is up the 3rd quarter in a row! EQT Group acquires Keywords Studios for $2.8B and GameStop raised $3.1B.   𝗤𝟮’𝟮𝟰 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 🔵52 announced M&A deals and $3.5B in disclosed deal value. EQT Group announced acquisition of Keywords Studios for $2.8B, the largest gaming deal of the year so far. Other notable buyers were Infinite Reality, Miniclip / Tencent, Nintendo and Tripledot Studios 🔵 Private financings stabilizing with 180 deals in Q2’24, staying flat compared to Q1. Investment dollars continue to be mostly focused on early-stage companies (93% of total deals). Notables deals were Zentry ($140M), Spyke Games ($50M) and k-ID ($50M) 🔵 Most capital went into #blockchain gaming, accounting for 40% of total deals and 44% of disclosed deal value 🔵 Embracer Group announced its plan to restructure its business into 3 separate listed public companies. GameStop raised over $3B in equity and Embracer Group, Take-Two Interactive and Modern Times Group MTG AB raised ~$1.7B in debt   𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 🔵 We anticipate that M&A activity to strengthen for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025, buoyed by the broader recovery of the public gaming company market 🔵 While we expect big players to be active, volume of mid to small sized deals will likely continue to increase and with limited mid / later stage financings available, we expect some gaming companies to opt for earlier exits 🔵 As predicted, PE firms have been the top buyers so far in 2024 and we will likely see more acquisitions and take-private deals by PE firms 🔵 Following the Voodoo/BeReal. deal, other gaming companies are likely to diversify in adjacent segments by acquiring mobile app companies. 🔵 For #financings, #AI, mixed reality, platform and #tools continue to be hot segments and we anticipate that several #IPO ready companies will start to plan for a listing in the quarter to come. Download the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gnnMutcU #games #gaming #mergersandacquisitions Drake Star #vcfunding #vc #ipo #crypto #token #

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Janet Yellen Addresses the Class Inflation Targeting at CFR The remarks from Yellen, today at the(CFR) Council on Foreign Relations in New York, will take aim economic impact of Inflationary proposals for 10% across-the-board levies on all products imported into the U.S. from overseas, as well as tariffs of 60% or more on China imports.  Yellen did not address Trump or Kamala targeting CFR policies, she described the dangers of "sweeping, untargeted tariffs" in excerpts of the speech released early. Economists are largely in agreement that Trump's broad-based tariffs would prove to be inflationary, given they would be paid by U.S. consumers — not foreign governments, as Trump has claimed — through higher prices on everything from food to cars.  "Calls for walling America off with high tariffs on friends & competitors alike, or by treating even our closest allies as transactional partners are deeply misguided,"Yellen stated, like dollar sanctions. The middle class is the target sitting on a massive $35 trillion with a $1.7 trillion credit card debt while locked into unaffordable or almost unsellable homes while facing layoffs & stagflation- is the immigrant wall. According to the Federal Reserve report the average savings in the US is at 1.7 percent. Historically the middle class consumer was the targeted driver of 70 percent of the US GDP now Debt to GDP at 166%. Today monetary printing has targeted wealth disparity & currency dilution all driven by central banks dollar debasement & unproductive deficit spending. Creating unproductive feudal capture. Even creating a 1 million unemployment revisions, a recession cover before dead cat pivot. In fact no matter what policy the two parties theatrically arrange by data the key is to vote your self interest that benefits yourself family,friends, community & humanity economically.Politics is an emotive game of political pimping for economic distribution exploiting ones emotional intelligence construct's along the way. In politics & economics, one should prefer operative knowledge over speculative knowledge, the latter is often a manipulation of ones emotional intelligence above a web of financial literacy. The self knowledge secret is to master your emotional intelligence while not being manipulated by emotions revenge, abandonment, cognitive dissonance, race or rejection derived from the psychology construct of dependency.Its embedded in the ability to manage your choice's & read the emotions driven by the Id-ego in people around you. There are five key elements to emotional intelligence around social, political economics for the self reliance, the 5 elements are self awareness,self regulation, motivation,empathy & social skills.Both parties are headed for economic & moral dilution since the profits are in dollar debasement so expect more economic dilution or inflation going forward as the Treasury injects 700 billion.Remember salvation is internal choices & not external delusions.

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I look at my models, half stolen goods from former Fed vice chair Fischer, half code written after missing by a mile. I look at the quarterly data sets and how things fall off a cliff when things go awry. I think about a quarter of a century on Fed Policy meeting press conferences online - Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell. I consider all the commentary about Fed being wrong, too late, too early, too high and too low and how I changed over the quarter century. There cannot be another conclusion than letting the policy rate decisions becoming algorithmic, an AI that does not care if the market thinks the rates go up or down. If rates need to be higher this quarter by 50 bps, only to be cut by 200 bps the next, this is rationality. To sit around in a room in 19 for two days and "writing what we think on a piece of paper" to produce the SEP qualifies for psychiatric care. Yet, the toll is shifted out to market operators and populations that wait, hope, and despair. It is a media show, medieval and from another millennium. An AI system does not need to be hyper sensitive, as in changing policy realtime. It should emulate the FOMC, while not hesitating to cut or hike without considering issues of trust or reputation. It will simply make decisions when thresholds are exceeded. It will communicate, collect data, analyze, and decide. If desired, it will call the FOMC members for meetings, open for discussions, and lay out the decision detail. It shifts the role of FOMC members from what they are poor at - making realtime decisions - to what they are good at - working the field and improving the algos. The Fed wants to cut rates, but the data says maybe this quarter we should hike. When the data suggests a wobbly economy, the Fed will look to the end of their horizon and seek to connect the two points with a smooth policy rate path, standard employment and price stability. The AI will not pay attention to the ups and downs, but seek to optimize for today and the path to the future. We end up getting price stability, maximum employment, financial stability and more efficient and productive enterprises. Some things take time. The Fed estimates policy lags are 6 - 24 months. The AI will at all times suggest when policy will be effective in a geography, an industry, or a national accounts segment. We must make sure that the Omics of Bioinformatics and the leverage of AI also find its form in Economics and in the Policy development and execution. #fed #centralbanking #fomc #ecb #boj #pobc #boe #monetarypolicy #omics

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Labor Market Soft Landing Progressing, but Not Complete ◾ Payrolls & Unemployment Up in Parallel. This labor market continues to follow the soft landing blueprint by the book so far. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 272k in May vs. 180k consensus (plus -15k revisions to prior months). Although the unemployment rate ticked modestly higher to 4%, it remains well near historical lows while the labor market comes into greater balance (job openings counts converging with job seekers). ◾ Wage Growth Not Yet Slowing. It’s clear now that calls for disinflating wage growth were too early. Average hourly earnings growth ticked up to 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, which is the largest increase since January. This will be a closely watched development since wages are a key cost input for services, which remain the stickiest part of the CPI basket holding the Fed back from cutting rates. ◾ Making Sense of the Disparity. Why the disparity between payrolls and unemployment? For one, they are outputs of two different surveys. The household survey that drives unemployment includes farm workers, some that are self-employed and other private household workers. Those are not included in the establishment survey for nonfarm payrolls, which also has a statistical error rate that is 4x times higher than the household survey, hence some of the large revisions often seen after the fact. Altogether, the unemployment rate is probably the more reliable indicator to follow. ◾ Fed Reaction Function. On net, today’s jobs report was hotter than expected with payrolls and wages above expectations but offset on the margin by a higher unemployment rate. This probably doesn’t change the Fed’s decision process that likely sees rates on hold again at next week’s FOMC, but it is roughly consistent with a path toward rate cuts beginning in the fall.

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What really pisses people off about Fed President Powell is his integrity. People here means the media, former PIMCO employees and founders, President-elect Trump. President Powell resolutely fired insider traders, Vice President Richard Clarida in primis. In the aftermath, commentators and allied traders were running blind, screaming for forward guidance, lack of anchors and policy errors. It would seem that insider trading likely included being a policy mole in a buddy network, although never suggested in public by the Fed. It is hard to watch the rot spread in the US, and seeing how the last pillars of integrity come under attack. People of integrity may unwittingly make policy mistakes. People without integrity intentionally make policy mistakes. #fed #governancecrisis #usa #aaplusnegative

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A 50-POINT CUT COULD SEND A VERY DANGEROUS SIGNAL FOR MARKETS AND ECONOMIES RIGHT NOW Despite some weakness in the jobs market and manufacturing, there's little need for a big rate cut. The Fed doing 50 bps could send an unnecessary distress signal. From our interview yesterday with CNBC Read the full article and the video here https://lnkd.in/dCdKhXVb #markets #economies #Fed #interestrates

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=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

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Party on, dude! Blowout jobs number at 272k gets the headline, but there is an interesting story about the innovation economy worth noting. Corporate margins have been at record highs without significant labor force reductions. Declining costs relative to sales is likely a product of corporate investment in areas like automation and digitalization. Many of the companies tied to those themes continue to deliver strong performance. Check out Global X ETFs recent Inflection Points, The Fed vs. the Innovation Economy for more on the topic: https://lnkd.in/dTWqbrD7

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Corbenic Capital lowering estimate of US Labor Force growth through May 2025 from above-trend (0.9%) 1.1% to -0.8%, outside the 0.0% - 1.7% long term normal range on the low side, and the lowest rate of growth since March 2021. If there was one parameter that illustrated the real issue in the US labor market, it was this disappointing 0.5% y-o-y growth rate, last seen in October 2021, and 1.0M below our estimate for May 2024. The labor force participation rate is a major political issue in the US, and the White House is pursuing fiscal programs directed at participation. We have recently seen promising improvements and our forecast going into the report for May was for normalization of this issue. More in our Employment Situation Summary to follow. #usa #employmentsituation #laborforce #election2024 #fed #recessionrisk #softlanding #participation #fiscalpolicy

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Five Moat Myths by Robert Vinall of RV Capital. I share very similar thoughts and thought it was a great presentation that I highly recommend for anyone to watch. Five Moat Myths 1) Wider is better. 2) All moats are created equal. 3) Execution does not matter. 4) Management does not matter. 5) Moats always matter. Conclusion 1) A widening moat is preferable to a wide moat 2) Some moats improve with time; others decay 3) Moats are an output of a great business; NOT an input 4) Management can create, but more importantly, destroy moats 5) Moats are most valuable in static economies and least valuable in dynamic economies Video: https://lnkd.in/gn_PEC6z Slides: https://lnkd.in/ghwSngi5

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Once again,analysing the VIX index, there’s something in the spectacular comeback. Interesting to hear Tom Lee’s take on the movements. Again, it will Jona oportunista to accumulate positions. Japan suffers fron carry trade abuse with the Yen, today liquidating operations. Once again , speculation hits indexes, economies,investors. Today at the open Japanese stocks rebounding 8 %.

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93