Michael Knappe

Lumen: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Lumen is enjoying a Renaissance under new CEO, Kate Johnson. She recognized the hard truth that Lumen had too much debt and managed to sell the South American and European assets above fair value to Colt and one other player. Less widely known is that Lumen sold off its ILEC business to Brightspeed for $7.5 billion. In addition, she is focusing on fibre-to-the-home deployment as opposed to trying to protect legacy twisted copper wire assets. Many telecom CEOs are unable to make the hard choice of cannibalizing or selling slow growth PSTN services like POTs and DSL in order to deploy new, technologically more advanced services. But the stock market approves the strategy as far sighted. Furthermore, Johnson has recognized that Lumen should finally integrate its five networks into one. These five networks reflect purchases of distressed assets that previous CEOs made over 15 years ago, including Qwest Communications, Time Warner Telecom, Global Crossing, and others. Integration is estimated to slash network expenses by a billion USD a year. If Lumen has integrated these assets in a timely fashion, Lumen's shareholders would be about $15 billion dollars richer today. It would still have its international assets and be a global player. Kate Johnson is making Lumen's focus the AI industry. This is good marketing and investors are likely to buy it short term. Nonetheless, AI has all the marking of a gigantic bubble as the revenue potential of generative AI is limited and certainly not great enough to justify the massive investments in the sector. Large language models are simply gigantic nonlinear statistical models that ape whatever language samples are used to estimate them. Reasoning ability is extremely limited. If a model was estimated using Donald Trump's tweets, it would insist that the 2020 election was stolen and that he is the most oppressed man on the planet. This so-called AI is basically regurgitation. It will be sensible if trained on the Wall Street and New York Times or downright crazy if trained on the proceedings of the Flat Earth Society. It is likely Lumen will benefit from being a partner of the Digital Titans, but I suspect the growth benefit will peter out in a few years when AI undergoes its own crisis just like the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000. I would focus more on reducing head count as transport and transit services can be profitable, but only if the company is lean and mean. I wish Lumen the best of luck. #lumen #renaissance #integration #leverage #katejohnson #ai

8

Slightly delayed, but this is a write up I did of the October #SpectrumAmericas event, hosted by Spectrum for the Future, an advisory client of mine. (Click through to download the PDF from the site). Obviously since that date, the US Elections have taken place, and the new incoming administration is intending to make Brendan Carr the head of the Federal Communications Commission. While Carr seemed keen to renew the FCC's auction authority over the supply of spectrum, he may well wish to scutinise the demand side more carefully. It is now clear that mobile data demand growth is slowing down, including in the US, where even Ericsson's optimistic, XR-fuelled forecasts have been lowered, at 16% CAGR for smartphones. Even if you take those figures - or CTIA's - at face value, it is increasingly apparent that demand is highly localised, rather than evenly spread over wide areas. A great deal of #5G use is indoors, in particular, which increasingly needs dedicated indoor systems - something that Verizon and other carriers have been pushing hard for recently. In addition, there is no urgent need for spectrum driven by future #6G, which is likely to appear later rather than sooner (maybe 2032) and may well again be concentrated in specific high-density areas and supported by satellite access. Hopefully, the FCC will shift from its analogy of a "spectrum pipeline" to a more precise and targeted "spectrum sprinkler" that can irrigate the exact times and places than need watering with new frequencies. https://lnkd.in/eHmbpAky

11

1 Comment

10 airports have free fixed broadband Wi-Fi over 150 Mbps If you travel as much as I do, if your carry-on setup time is 30 min or less and it could last up to two weeks .... you might be very interested in this, Check out Ookla latest analysis of Airports in the United States. https://lnkd.in/exdx2kr6

29

FINISH BEAD is the mantra - speed, transparency, accountability and fairness are the key principles. Check out this piece and let me know your thoughts - Enjoy!

19

5 Comments

Resilient network, resilient communities, and a resilient planet 🌎 In 2023, T-Mobile focused on how to use our scale and resources to benefit our customers and our planet. We’re moving forward together toward a cleaner, more equitable future. Read our full 2023 Corporate Responsibility Report here! ➡️ https://lnkd.in/g9WYTnR9

100

1 Comment

If you worked in the telecom domain, you might know Mohsin J. for his initiative over 20 years ago—a Yahoo group called 'Zumbeel.' The group helped me and thousands of professionals at the time by providing a support system for professional engineers, which, in hindsight, was ahead of its time. I find his reason for starting the group fascinating, and I can relate to it through the social media platform I am trying to build. I invited Mohsin for a podcast to discuss a wide variety of topics, including his journey from a comfortable 9-to-5 employee to an entrepreneur solving various challenges in digital marketing, telecom services, healthy food, entrepreneurship for kids, real estate, and more. Link to the podcast is mentioning in the comments below. → Follow me for content on personal finance, social media, and productivity on LinkedIn, YouTube, and other social media platforms. Book 1-1 session for deeper discussions. Subscribe to my newsletter linked in the bio as well. You can find me under the hashtag hashtag #WaliKhan. ♻️ Repost if you found value in this post. PS: The photo is 2 years old when we met in person here in Dubai :)

50

7 Comments

Remember the screeching sound of dial-up internet? Hard to imagine that was two decades ago! Technology has evolved so much and is continuously evolving. From dial-up modems to the lightning-fast 5G networks of today, I've had the privilege of helping thousands of people get their business connected to what matters the most: The customers. What I've learnt in the last 20 years: - Customer needs always drive innovation - The only constant in telecom is change itself - Adaptability is crucial as technology improves and gets cheaper Looking forward to the next 10 years: - Emerging technologies like 6G - Internet virtually anywhere (satellite internet and fixed wireless) - IoT: being able to brew my 10 cups of espresso with the press of a button on my phone! - Artificial Intelligence: Integration in business and customer support The future of connectivity is bright, and I'm excited to be part of shaping it with Flashforward.

6

4 Comments

NEW: all KNOTS can embed in Menger Sponge FRACTAL. Wolfram's 𝗞𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮[ ] & 𝗠𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗠𝗲𝘀𝗵[ ] are relevant functions. What ideas and visuals can we conjure? For example, what do you think this code does? Try changing 7 to other integers. knot=Total@NestList[2(#/.t->2t)/3&, KnotData["Trefoil","SpaceCurve"][t],7]; ParametricPlot3D[knot,{t, 0, 2 Pi}] A surprising connection between knots and fractals was uncovered by high school students, who proved that any knot can be embedded in the intricate structure of the Menger sponge, a fractal with infinitely many voids. Kids and their mentor published a preprint of the research SEP 5, 2024: - https://lnkd.in/e-GUB6WW

1

With Ciena Services Network Transformation Suite (NTS), leverage the rich and deep, customizable software capabilities for network transformation, network deployment, and operations that automate, expedite, and reduce risk in your projects, large and small.

3

Thinking about the future? So are we!!! Check out this webinar regarding low power IoT

1

Curious about the future of networking? Discover how Lumen Technologies is leading the charge in Network as a Service (#NAAS) and what it means for the industry.

1

This is a great article about #SuperBundling, well done Avi Greengart

9

Curious about what's next in the world of telecom?   Hear from Lumen Technologies CEO, Kate Johnson, on how Lumen is embracing #AI and reshaping the industry.   Click the link to find out why Lumen is the #TrustedNetwork for AI.  #InnovateWithLumen 

4

Curious about what's next in the world of telecom?   Hear from Lumen Technologies CEO, Kate Johnson, on how Lumen is embracing #AI and reshaping the industry.   Click the link to find out why Lumen is the #TrustedNetwork for AI.  #InnovateWithLumen 

2