Manus Cranny

At $776.6 billion, worldwide issuance of securitized products over the first three quarters of 2024 marked a 42.8% jump from a year earlier – putting the market on track for its first $1 trillion year since 2021. But a healthy dose of that supply came from issuers that accelerated their funding activities to precede any turbulence that might accompany that upcoming presidential #election, which could suggest a loss of momentum. And additional headwinds are developing. Among them: A consensus is forming that #interestrates won’t fall as much as previously predicted, which already is manifesting in higher bond #yields. Get exclusive insights on market participants’ expectations for the coming quarter – and the dangers they’ll be monitoring – in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, a @Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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Competition is intensifying among credit-rating agencies for assignments to review securitizations of nontraditional assets, with Moody's Ratings, S&P Global and Fitch Ratings increasingly pursuing work in such sectors. And in some cases, they’re picking up work that otherwise might have gone to KBRA. An #analysis by Asset-Backed Alert has revealed several instances in which the Big Three rating firms have made their presences known in asset classes including #music royalties, whole-business cashflows and #solar-power equipment finance. Get the behind-the-scenes details plus other leading-edge news and authoritative statistics on worldwide securitization activities in this week’s Asset-Backed Alert, a Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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This is the latest installment of our Year of Descending Dangerously series, on interenational central banks' attempts to retreat from high interest rates. Just in time for the FOMC, and written with Richard Annerquaye Abbey and Carolyn Silverman Hope it's of interest. #interestrates #inflation #centralbanks

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Where upside lies: Fund managers still see growth pockets in industrials 🛠️Most capital goods stocks, or industrials, are hovering near their 52-week highs. Still, they witnessed the greatest traction among all sectors in May. MFs flocked to the industrials, investing the most in the sector during the month while FIIs too, funnelled the highest capital into the sector. 🛠️The BSE Capital Goods index currently trades at a price to earnings (P/E) multiple of 58.5 times, significantly above its five-year average P/E of 37.92 times, Bloomberg data showed. In fact, several index constituents are tad shy of hitting fresh 52-week highs. 🛠️As long as order inflow visibility remains strong, there will be sustained earnings delivery and hence relatively strong valuations, said Priyankar Biswas, CFA of BNP Paribas. “Given the multiple sector growth outlook, we may not expect near-term moderation of investor appetite for the space despite the valuations,” he said, adding that considering the visibility of order inflows till FY30, there is still headroom to be constructive on the space. 🛠️“We think the sector valuation may adjust overtime and there may be some time correction,” said Saion Mukherjee of Nomura. Given the strong narrative, he believes a deep correction is unlikely. 🛠️“The sector's rapid re-rating has outpaced earnings upgrades, with valuations soaring,” said Nitin Arora of Axis Mutual Fund. If the earnings growth continues, one might look at increasing exposure to the capital goods sector, he added. 🛠️The only indicators that might prompt a reduction in exposure to this sector would be risks to revenue and earnings growth for the companies within it, highlighted Sorbh Gupta of Bajaj Finserv Asset Management Ltd. 🛠️ Deepak Shenoy of Capitalmind finds industrial companies in the manufacturing space particularly attractive. He prefers firms with strong momentum, low debt, and significant expansion potential. With that in mind, he likes sectors such as defence, railways, shipbuilding, transformers, and power transmission lines and equipment. Read here the complete article here: https://lnkd.in/d7ENs9rG

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ARTICLE: LPs have embraced secondaries to rebalance portfolio exposure across strategies, geographies, vintages and funds. They can now securitize positions via structured portfolios traded on the bond market. GPs are using direct secondaries, continuation funds and “strips” of portfolios to generate liquidity when exit markets sputter (as they’re doing today). Tools are also available to raise cash for firm-level objectives such as succession management or expansion.

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The U.S. election is one of multiple event-related risks which executive and business leaders are bracing for next month, said Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Sandhu spoke on cross-asset and macroeconomic volatility during the Bloomberg Volatility Forum which took place Oct. 1 in New York. “We have a confluence of employment reports, we have the election, and then we have the FOMC meeting,” he said in an interview of events that are all occurring in the first week of November. “So there’s a lot of event risk in that seven days, and the [volatility] market is reflecting that event risk.” #volatility #election #scenarios https://lnkd.in/g8GUcu6n

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The Securities and Exchange Commission's Investor Advisory Council is citing my article on "finfluencers" in its proposal to require people giving investment advice on social media to clearly reveal compensation, conflicts of interest, etc. I am all for more transparency, as it improves markets, but to my mind, enforcement will be a big challenge. There are so many people trying to "finfluence" I can't imagine what kind of a staff you'd need to watch all the investment-oriented TikToks, YouTube videos, Instagram posts, X posts, Bluesky posts....etc. Maybe this is an area an AI could help with? https://lnkd.in/esFQ8eFR

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Have you ever wondered how changes in interest rates impact the value of bonds? Understanding the relationship between interest rates and bond prices is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the complex world of fixed income securities. From the book, An Introduction to Fixed Income Securities https://a.co/d/3TwhvVu #FixedIncome, #FixedIncomeSecurities, #BondMarket, #InvestingInBonds, #FinancialMarkets, #InvestmentStrategies, #YieldCurve, #BondInvesting, #FixedIncomeInvesting, #DebtInstruments, #InterestRates, #PortfolioManagement, #FinanceBooks, #InvestmentEducation, #FinancialLiteracy, #PassiveIncome, #BondFunds, #WealthManagement, #CreditRisk, #InvestmentAnalysis, #MarketInsights, #BondPortfolio, #IncomeInvesting, #FixedIncomeFund

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Jerome Powell’s keynote address this Friday at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium may lay the groundwork for a September start to lowering interest rates. The upcoming shift is spurred by the deceleration of inflation toward the central bank’s 2% annual target and policymakers’ desire to get ahead of a softening labor market. With a September rate cut all but assured, the debate on Wall Street increasingly is shifting to what the easing cycle will look like thereafter. Importantly, the path of the rate-cut cycle will depend on why the Fed is cutting. Will it lower interest rates to rescue the economy from a recession, or merely normalize rates that have grown too restrictive in a soft landing? In this weekend's Barron's: https://lnkd.in/emDhbVR4

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Great to speak with Nick Del Deo about the outlook for tower and data centre stocks in the US. We speak about the impact of rate cuts, slowing 5G rollouts and the implication on towercos and how protected data centre stocks are from a souring on AI Read all here!

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Fueled in part by the busiest first half ever for the U.S. asset-backed #bond market, worldwide securitization volume in 2023 has vaulted by 48.4% from a year ago – boosting the businesses of many major #underwriters. But one bank in particular has taken advantage of that growth to emerge as the near-undisputed industry leader. Tomorrow’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert will contain complete year-to-date #rankings for underwriters across deal types, including first-of-their kind league tables that combine new issuance and repricings in the collateralized loan obligation sector. Also look for market forecasts and other leading-edge statistical features, each informed by the newsletter’s ABS Database, available only to subscribers of Asset-Backed Alert, a Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/eaXnjbYm

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The latest in our four-part series of Fixed Income Building Blocks is now live with Richard Rauch, CFA from Brandywine Global Investment Management discussing the reasons to think about adding global bonds to your portfolio. In this educational podcast episode, Richard and Fixed Income News Australia Editorial Director Elizabeth Moran take a deep dive into government and corporate bonds and active and passive investment. #fixedincome #bonds #fina

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Mastering Fixed Income Securities: A Pathway to Wealth and Financial Stability https://lnkd.in/exwVRZMM

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Mastering Fixed Income Securities: A Pathway to Wealth and Financial Stability https://lnkd.in/exwVRZMM

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COLUMN: The Nareit index is among the several standards many real estate securities investors now use to benchmark the performance of their U.S. REIT securities portfolios. And the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index, likewise, has become the standard that many real estate securities investors use to benchmark the performance of their European real estate securities portfolios.

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In a profile of Ares' opportunistic credit leaders, we explore the implications of the massive imbalance between sponsors’ installed asset base of some $3 trillion, and their roughly $1.3 trillion of dry powder. #privatedebt #opportunisticcredit #Ares #drypowder https://lnkd.in/eSNJBkdn

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Interconnectivity of politics and financial markets can no longer be ignored. If you haven't had the chance yet, please read this excellent Professional Wealth Management (PWM) piece by Norman Villamin (韋立民), chief investment officer for wealth management at UBP - Union Bancaire Privée: After the US presidential election debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, where Harris reversed Trump's previous gains and emerged as favourite, investors need to seek risk-managed positions in gold, hedge funds and high quality equities to shield portfolios from volatility https://lnkd.in/eAiF5SSi

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MY LATEST ON PRIVATE CREDIT: Blue-chip asset managers known primarily for their private-equity businesses have significantly increased private credit as a percentage of their assets under management within the past year. Private-equity giant Blackstone, with assets that rose about 7% to more than $1.06 trillion in the first quarter, increased its credit and insurance assets 13% to $329.6 billion at the end of March from $291.3 billion a year earlier. At buyout firm KKR & Co., assets managed by its credit business rose almost 12% to $260 billion at the end of this year’s first quarter from $233 billion a year earlier. Other publicly traded asset managers have also noted the increasing importance of private credit. In recent earnings reports and conference calls on the results, firm leaders cited strong returns as well as significant investor and borrower interest in debt offerings as driving forces of growth in the asset class. https://lnkd.in/ebDbhWw2

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