Liz Lasater

I have an opinion piece in Transport Topics this month - it discusses what TL carriers need to know about how shippers look at transportation procurement. Specifically, I address the importance of monitoring the Spot Premium Ratio and the New Rate Differential in the markets. Enjoy the short read! #TL #transportation #procurement #spotpremiumratio #newratedifferential https://lnkd.in/esxiuvdP

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Interesting observation about the pre-strike volume surge! Looking forward to seeing the SEP/OCT numbers to understand the impact further.

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Important research from TRADE PARTNERSHIP WORLDWIDE LLC on the potential impact of a proposed #portfee on Chinese container ships as proposed in the #USTR Section 301 investigation into China's Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors. #supplychain

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Flying high on the hog as they say as LGB/LA Ports enjoy the diversion to USWC Ports for import cargo, but bad news for export cargo. Lets look at the preliminary numbers as reported by PMSA. LGB-Increase of 40.4% imports from 2019 Aug pre-pandemic numbers ** exports down 16.3% from August 2019. LA-Increase of 16.4% imports from 2019 Aug pre-pandemic numbers ** down 16.8% from August 2019 OAK-Decrease14.9% imports from 2023 Aug numbers ** 59,362 outbound loads that departed from the port Jul 2024 were the fewest in any August in this century. SEA/TAC- Increase 10.1% imports from 2019 Aug pre-pandemic numbers YTD container moves through SEA/TAC ports (2,137,902) represented 16.6% decline from the same period in 2019

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AIT Worldwide Logistics' Global Transportation Market Report for May 2024 is now available and packed with crucial data to help you make smart shipping and logistics decisions. Highlights include: • Why ocean carriers are forecasting significantly reduced capacity on a key lane • Which link in the supply chain is creating a bottleneck at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach • What region is experiencing a surge in air traffic and why Don't miss out on this complimentary resource! Download your copy today from AIT’s website. https://hubs.ly/Q02y1-CK0 #SupplyChain #Logistics #Shipping #MarketTrends

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With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump set to lead for another term, global supply chain stakeholders are bracing for impact. Freight rates, foreign trade, and the cost of goods could see major shifts. As uncertainty looms, some industry leaders are adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach. While some wait and see, others are moving forward with contingency plans to tackle the financial and operational risks that lie ahead. Discover what experts predict and how to stay prepared: https://ow.ly/pmBC50U4mXK #2024USElection #Logistics #RiskManagement #SupplyChain #TradePolicy #Trump #USElection

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Rail container dwell times in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach surged to a two-year high in September as the largest US port complex handled record one-month volumes of imports from Asia, driven in part by retailers diverting cargo from East and Gulf coast ports ahead of the longshore strike there.

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Number of the Day 39.8% Year-over-year growth in international intermodal container volumes in the Southwest U.S., including the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, in the third quarter, according to the Intermodal Association of North America.

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The West Coast is holding tight and bringing it back. Southern California container ports are reporting strong cargo volumes in June, capping off a busy first half of the year driven by a robust U.S. economy. The Port of Los Angeles processed 827,757 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in June, marking a 10% increase over the previous month and less than 1% compared to last June, which was the Port’s best month last year. Six months into 2024, the Port of Los Angeles is 14% ahead of its performance in the previous year.

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When ports are disrupted, Brown Distribution Centers can be crucial to your supply chain. Our facility can act as a strategic buffer, providing cross-docking, value-added services, alternative transportation coordination, and real-time data visibility - all essential for maintaining flexibility and resilience during port strikes or other supply chain challenges. Learn more about the key advantages of leveraging Brown Distribution Centers in this informative article.

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As most attention on imports is centered around the East & Gulf Coast port strike, I wanted to share a different import-related story: the incredible increase in U.S. imports from Taiwan that we witnessed this July. Two charts below. Thoughts: •The top chart shows imports from Taiwan in millions of dollars (https://lnkd.in/gJYUAHnQ). July came in at $13 billion, 30% higher than the prior record of $10 billion in June! That isn’t normal behavior in data to say the least. •Diving into the data, most of this increase occurred in just one 6-digit harmonized tariff code (out of ~5,000 potential HTC-6 codes). That code was HTC 847330 - Parts & Accessories for Automated Data Processing (ADP) Machines & Units. It’s also worth noting most of the remainder of the July import gains are explained by one other 6-digit HTC: 847150 Digital Processing Units, N.E.S.O.I. As such, the import surge is clearly linked to AI computing demands. •These data are consistent with WSJ just reporting about how AI computing demands are causing a surge (no pun intended) of electricity demand (https://lnkd.in/gypCNR3Y). I’ll be sharing data later this week on some sectors benefiting from continued growth of electricity needs. What the import data tell me is we are still in the opening innings of the AI computing shock. Implication: if these data are any indication, we are just getting started on the expanded volume of trade between Taiwan and the USA to support the AI computing boom. I'm increasingly starting to believe the AI computing boom could mirror the capital investment boom we saw in computers in the 1980s and 1990s that forever changed the nature of work in the USA. #markets #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight 

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As 2024 wraps up, the freight market remains anything but stable. Potential ILA port strikes after January 15, anticipated tariff increases under the incoming Trump administration, and the Lunar New Year rush keep transpacific rates elevated heading into December. Frontloading to beat potential strikes and tariffs has already pushed West Coast rates above the pre-LNY levels we saw during the Red Sea crisis in early 2024. While carriers are signaling General Rate Increases (GRIs) for January, these hikes might face resistance with inventory levels already built up and limited pre-strike shipping windows to the East Coast. We’re more likely to see rates rise later this month or closer to January. On Asia-Europe lanes, rates are steadily climbing, with Mediterranean fares nearing $6,000/FEU - a $1,000 increase from November. This trend reflects effective blank sailings and pre-LNY urgency, as the lingering impact of Red Sea diversions makes this period critical for shippers managing lead times. Carriers are also adjusting ahead of February’s alliance reshuffle. MSC is expanding standalone services, while the Gemini Alliance has already started booking for its new hub-and-spoke model. Air freight ex-China to North America and Europe has remained steady, even during peak e-commerce season, thanks to increased freighter capacity on ex-Asia lanes. This shift, however, has pushed transatlantic air rates up 33% to $2.80/kg, the highest since April 2023. With ongoing capacity adjustments, alliance changes, and geopolitical pressures, procurement teams must stay agile heading into 2025. What are you prioritizing in your procurement planning for the coming year? Let’s discuss, I’d love to hear your perspective. #FreightProcurement #LogisticsPlanning #SupplyChainManagement #LogisticsTechnology

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*** Breaking News - ILA Breaks Off Negotiations With United States Maritime Alliance After Employers Push For Automation That Will Cost ILA Members Their Jobs *** It appears that the ILA and USMX are once again at odds as they work to find an acceptable compromise over a future contract agreement. The key sticking point remains automation in US ports, something which will not only improve productivity and reduce backlogs in the supply chain, but will also ensure that US ports remain competitive in the global market. According to reports on their Facebook group page which is open to the public, the ILA has issued the following statement: “NORTH BERGEN, NJ. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) broke off talks with United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) on Tuesday afternoon, November 12, 2024, after the employer group continued pushing automation and semi-automation language in its Master Contract proposals that will eliminate ILA jobs. The two sides were scheduled to meet for four days this week in New Jersey to work out agreements on all remaining items for a new Six-Year Master Contract Agreement between the ILA and USMX. In early October, following a three-day strike at all ILA-USMX ports on the Atlantic and Gulf Coast, the ILA and USMX reached a tentative agreement on wages, and extending the Master Contract until January 15, 2025. As they gathered in Teaneck, New Jersey this week with their respective bargaining committees, USMX introduced language in their proposal for semi-automated equipment to be used at ILA ports, which the union outright rejected. The ILA recognized this as a renewed attempt by USMX to eliminate ILA jobs with automation and broke off talks. “The ILA’s resolve remains strong not to surrender any ILA jobs,” the union said. “We are disappointed that USMX would attempt to disregard our ILA’s well-known position opposing job-cutting automation and semi-automation. Once again, our employers who are raking in billion-dollar profits annually have exposed their ultimate goal of wanting to eliminate as many ILA jobs as possible, and replace our ILA longshore workers with robotic equipment.” The ILA said that the union’s rank-and-file members fully support this position and that the three-day strike in early October should serve as proof how much they will sacrifice to fight for a fair and decent contract. The ILA remains hopeful that USMX will alter its unwinnable strategy #usaportstrike #ilastriketalks #automation

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CNBC today published the article linked below stating, "America's freight recession is nearing its end...with retail orders and rates headed higher." There are just a few problems: [1]: The article cites data from Motive showing truck visits to distribution centers of the top 5 retailers are up 30% year-over-year as evidence. While Walmart, Target, Costco, Home Depot, and Amazon are indeed large entities (assuming these are the 5 retailers mentioned), they are a small fraction of the overall freight market. And I highly question this figure's accuracy, as Census Bureau data aren't showing sharp increases in retail sales in these sectors to match. [2]: The article ignores that Cass's shipments data for June showed a steep slide to the worst reading in 4 years. Cass shipments is directionally very predictive of freight market dynamics. [3]: The article states, "Data across the retail sector shows year-over-year order increases through June, including at department stores, electronics, and apparel retailers with bricks-and-mortar locations (32.9%), home improvement (24.4%), grocery & superstores (22.1%), and discount retailers & wholesalers (13%)." These numbers can't be accurate nationally, as we aren't seeing increases in real sales or real inventories even close to these totals for these industries based on Census Bureau data. Implication: retail trade is NOT the primary driver of domestic trucking activity. Rather, its domestic manufacturing, and domestic manufacturing output continues to be weak. We are finally seeing signs that seasonally adjusted manufacturing output found a bottom in several industries in late Q1/early Q2 2024, but we still have a way to go before this freight recession ends for trucking firms. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #trucking #freight https://lnkd.in/gAUpaa-Q

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Let’s talk technology!

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Follow & Visit Us www.sobelnet.com Brian C. Wills Bisham Deena Ocean Freight Bookings: Catalyst for Supply Chain Digitization, Say Software Vendors Changes in how ocean freight bookings are managed are poised to drive comprehensive digitization across containerized supply chains, according to software vendors specializing in solutions for shippers and forwarders. The prevailing belief is that as electronic bookings become more standardized among ocean carriers, the data generated can significantly enhance coordination both upstream and downstream of the booking process. Currently, booking procedures are often isolated events, but a unified electronic booking system accessible to all stakeholders—shippers, forwarders, and carriers alike—could revolutionize coordination efforts before and after bookings are confirmed. #SupplyChain #Logistics #DigitalTransformation #ShippingIndustry #OceanFreight #FreightForwarding #ShippingTechnology #ContainerShipping #MaritimeLogistics #ElectronicBooking #TradeTech #StreamlinedShipping #ShippingCoordination #SupplyChainInnovation #ShippingData #CarrierManagement #NVO #ShippingSoftware #SupplyChainManagement #LogisticsTech #FreightDigitization

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On the rise – import cargo at US container ports set to increase in May. While these are good signs that we see a continued improvement of the economy, this also has implications on available capacities and rate levels. Please reach out to our team of Freight Forwarding Experts at #DHLGlobalForwarding to discuss in more detail. https://okt.to/bgnI0v

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