Liz Lasater

The container shipping industry continues to move upwards on the spiciness scale from a pricing standpoint, with spot rates continuing to rise (and possibly poised to rise further as summarized in the article I'm linking to). My goal with this post is to summarize the key dynamics at work for easier accessibility: •The Red Sea crisis caused a dramatic increase in demand in the form of greater TEU-miles for shipments from South Asia to the USA and especially Europe. •TEU volumes are up strongly year-over-year, representing another increase in demand. •Congestion at ports in Asia (e.g., Singapore) and Europe due to changes in routings brought on by the Red Sea crisis. For example, we are seeing more non-standard transshipment patterns (https://lnkd.in/g35iD2vr). Congestion results in a reduction in supply as vessels wait longer. •Consequently, we have experienced both a positive demand shock and increasingly a negative supply shock. We all know what that means in economics... Implication: Imports in Europe and the USA need to plan for more disruptions and higher prices for container shipping as we move through 2024. The most affected firms will be: (i) lower volume imports in Europe and the USA will be more affected (due to greater exposure to spot rates); (ii) importers of dense cargo that has a lower unit value (think cheap furniture versus consumer electronics); and (iii) importers of cargo that sells for a lower gross margin rate (holding constant density) (think higher margin apparel versus lower margin apparel). #supplychain #shipsandshipping #supplychainmanagement #markets #freight https://lnkd.in/gqxGtVsS

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This article highlights the significant challenges that the impending American port strike could bring to global supply chains. At AFS Logistics, we're acutely aware of the potential disruptions this might cause and are here to help navigate these uncertainties. Our team specializes in creating resilient logistics solutions tailored to manage and mitigate the risks associated with such chokepoints. If you're concerned about how this situation might impact your freight, don't hesitate to reach out. We're here to support your business through these turbulent times. #SupplyChain #Logistics #FreightSolutions #AFSLogistics

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With a market share increase to 43.4% in 2024, West Coast ports are regaining ground in U.S. imports. As the industry faces uncertainties, including labor negotiations and economic factors, the emphasis on operational stability remains crucial for retailers. https://okt.to/73B48m

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Follow & Visit Us www.sobelnet.com Brian C. Wills Bisham Deena Walter Kozak Balancing AI and Human Expertise in Modern Supply Chains In today’s fast-evolving supply chain landscape, the relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and human talent is shifting from one of potential replacement to one of partnership. While AI offers unprecedented efficiency and automation, human expertise remains essential in navigating complex logistics challenges. By combining the strengths of AI and human intuition, companies can create a more resilient, innovative, and agile supply chain. #SupplyChain #AIinSupplyChain #HumanTalent #SupplyChainInnovation #AugmentedIntelligence #LogisticsTech #AIandAutomation #FutureofWork #SupplyChainExcellence #DigitalTransformation #sobel #sobelnet #sobelnetwork #ateam #sobelshipsandsips

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Number of the Day 39.8% Year-over-year growth in international intermodal container volumes in the Southwest U.S., including the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, in the third quarter, according to the Intermodal Association of North America.

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The extension of the Master Contract until early 2025 provides a stable framework for these ongoing discussions, ensuring labor stability in the short term. However, the tentative agreement sets the January 15, 2025 deadline just before Chinese New Year, a crucial period for shipping, raising concerns that any potential disruption could have widespread consequences if no agreement is reached. More to come…

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Shippers ICYMI… postal consolidation may be at a turning point. Louis DeJoy, Postmaster General, sent this letter to parcel consolidators: "We no longer intend to provide discounted rates through NSAs that incent parties to aggregate mail volume from multiple shippers, and bring such volume directly to the destination delivery unit"... "We therefore wish to begin negotiations on modifying your Parcel Select contract to remove Destination Delivery Unit (DDU) pricing..." "... because we do not consider the entry of packages presorted to the 5-digit level at our plants to be consistent with processing economies, for most of the nation we no longer intend to offer differentiated DSCF rates based on whether volume is presorted to the 5-Digit ZIP Code..." "I want these discussions to move forward in an expeditious fashion and to conclude with an executed written amendment within 45 days." Make sure you aren’t left holding your packages.

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Early freight orders for peak season are showing a modest increase, according to the CNBC Supply Chain Survey. However, consumer spending is predicted to be relatively conservative compared to previous years. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #cnbc #yahoo #yahoofinance #logistics #logisticsindustry Vance Zahorski, John Mills, Denny Smolinski, Luba Ilyasova, Oleksandr Nyezhnyk

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Recall my post just a few days ago about assessing validity claims concerning data? I was struck by a few statements made in this recent FreightWaves' article I just came across this morning that makes be even more strongly question how representative their tender volume data truly is (https://lnkd.in/g5XV3gts). Consider the following quotes: •"Dallas’ outbound tender volumes (OTVI.DAL) have grown approximately 50% over the past five years compared to the national average of 18%." •"Phoenix demand is up approximately 60% since April 2019." My simple question: over-the-road dry van capacity has increased just 4% over this period based on the BLS's payroll data for NAICS 484121: General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Truckload. We know from separate Census Bureau data compiled from IRS tax records and highly reliable surveys that nonemployer firms saw just a 1.5 percentage point increase in their share of revenue (from 18.5% in 2019 to 21% in 2022). As such, capacity hasn't grown more than 4.5% across all of trucking. If freight volumes were truly up 18% over this period, wouldn't we be in an incredibly tight market? Curious is anyone else can make sense of these discrepancies. My answer is simple: FreightWaves' tender volume data aren't capturing all trucking freight, and instead are capturing a nonrepresentative slice of the pie. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #transportation #logistics

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U.S. supply chain companies investing in technology, CSCMP report finds #ProvisionAi #supplychainplanning #transportationplanning https://hubs.li/Q02D1PZ70

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Number of the Day 9.86 Average days that imports into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach waited for inland rail transport in October, the highest rail dwell time at the ports since October 2022, according to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association.

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In the container shipping world, “consolidation” often means LCL, but not always. VentureSource often has enough product moving on a given lane to justify FCL shipments, but chooses to consolidate with another shipper to take advantage of product density differences. Mixing heavy and light parts in the same container attempts to optimize for container weight and volume simultaneously. If done right, we can reduce cost, increase shipping frequency, and decrease safety stock. Today we do this primarily for COST and WORKING CAPITAL reasons; in the future, we may also do it for CARBON reasons. Here’s an interesting white paper by Ma NangLaik and Kar Way Tan assessing carbon footprint savings, through both container size selection (20ft, 40ft, 40 HC) and shipment consolidation. The study found a 13.4% carbon emission reduction through optimized container size selection and a 12.1% carbon emission reduction through shipment consolidation. There is still a missing piece. We need a way to accurately measure our carbon footprint for a given shipment, considering all transportation modes. For US imports that’s often truck + boat + rail + truck. Only when we have emission numbers we can trust can we set up KPIs. I know smart people are working on this. 😉 In the meantime, VentureSource Lead Logistics is actively helping clients find consolidation opportunities, driving COST and WORKING CAPITAL improvements. Hopefully in the future we can help drive CARBON improvements as well. Reducing Carbon Emission through Container Shipment ...Semantic Scholarhttps://lnkd.in/eMxMgq5E › ...

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Being able to articulate your current Supply Chain structure is easy when you have a framework to go off of. In this video I walk you through the process we use at Ameriton Freight & Logistics to get the baseline understanding of our clients. With this form we get a detailed understanding of the process to capture inefficiencies and what's working.  #freight #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #supplychainsolutions #logisticscompany #logistics #shippers #everythingfreight #smallbusiness #environmentalsustainability #environmentallyfriendly #sustainability #warehousing #drayage #intermodal #oceanfreight #supplychainmanagement #consulting

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Number of the Day 41.5% Share of U.S. container imports from Asia handled by East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in the first eight months of 2024, down from 43.7% in the same period last year but up from a 29.1% share in 2013, according to data from PIERS and S&P Global.

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The May U.S. container import volumes are out and it was another strong month breaking 2.3 million TEUs driven by imports from China. We also took a look at the flow of containers, especially empties from the U.S. to China and the current shortage situation makes no sense. To learn more go to: https://lnkd.in/eBsrTyeW. #globalsupplychains #globalshipping #usimports #globallogistics

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Logistics is fundamentally about creating options. ▶ This empowers organizations to operate more effectively, efficiently, while increasing flexibility. ▶ These options help respond to changing demand, seize opportunities and consistently deliver value to customers. ▶ Working in logistics is fun if you enjoy problem solving and making a tangible difference. The Marine Corps recently buried Gen Al Gray with full military honors at Arlington National Cemetery. Gen Gray understood the impact logistics has on operations. #logistics #supplychain #operationsmanagement #Transportation #LogisticsManagement #Distribution #LogisticsSolutions #LogisticsPlanning #usmc

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At ALOM, we're committed to helping our clients stay resilient in an ever-evolving global trade landscape. With recent talks of potential tariff increases and geopolitical uncertainties, we are proactively working alongside our clients to implement supply chain risk mitigation strategies that protect their bottom line, maintain consistent product flow, and support rapid adjustments to shifting regulations. The recent article highlights how some companies face tough choices due to high costs, even opting out of early ordering. We help clients strategize effectively, exploring options that balance agility, affordability, and sustainable practices to ensure they’re prepared for whatever’s next. I'd love to hear what stategies you are considering as we all navigate the ever changing landscape. Are you feeling the pressure too? https://lnkd.in/e3H5CjuX #SupplyChain #RiskMitigation #SupplyChainResilience #3PL+ #Logistics #Tariffs #Trade

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