Jessica Ashooh

This policy analysis by Middle East Institute on America's strategic drift in the Middle East is damning--and is precisely what we analysts and journalists on the ground have been warning of for months. "This strategic drift in US policy is a direct result of the Biden administration’s wishful thinking and unwillingness to exert leverage through diplomacy backed by a coherent regional security approach. As a result, the United States has been unable to achieve nearly any of its stated diplomatic and security outcomes. America’s lack of strategic focus and will to take actions aimed at fundamentally shifting the dynamics in the region, a condition that predated the Biden administration, has incentivized regional actors to turn toward violence rather than choose a diplomatic path." https://lnkd.in/dbK4fuDP #Israel #Gaza #Palestinians #Biden #MiddleEast #foreignpolicy

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Bloomberg's Eric Fan & Zach Mider published a major investigative piece on the scandalous H-1B visa program, with a deep dive into how the government _allocates_ them (randomly!) and the consequences. Report shows that IT Staffing firms (aka bodyshops or jobshops) + Offshore Outsourcing firms receive the majority of visas by rigging the random lottery. Surprise here is the very large numbers bodyshops receive. It is head scratching that USCIS allocates the visas randomly rather than using selection criteria to yield the "best" or "most deserving" pool of workers and employers. USCIS or Congress should fix. A random lottery is the _worst_ possible allocation scheme because it advantages the very firms - IT Staffing & Outsourcers - that pay the lowest wages and abuse the system. The solution is straightforward - use criteria to select. This is common sense. There are many options for designing criteria that are fair: - absolute wages (highest gets preference) - wage-levels (highest relative wage for the occupation and geographic location) - split the allocation across wages levels; i.e., 30k for level 4; 25k for level 3; 20k for level 2; 10k for level 1. Bloomberg does a public service by publishing detailed micro-data, including wages, on all H-1B visa registrations by employer and worker. Analysts should download and mine these data to advance an evidence-based policy discussion. https://lnkd.in/ettmzkYu

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On this election-eve, I shared some thoughts with Inkstick Media on what MENA policy could look like under either Harris or Trump administrations. I don't expect much change. The status quo is baked in and neither party fully embraces efforts to change that. #MENA #MiddleEast #WestAsia #USFP #USForeignPolicy #ForeignPolicy #MiddleEastPolicy #MENAPolicy https://lnkd.in/ggcvNbdG

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In my latest column, I discuss the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and suggest that Iran's support for HAMAS and its recent missile attack on Israel are part of its campaign to derail the peace negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. https://lnkd.in/ePaCBNYH

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Excited to share my latest column for HS Today! In this piece, I delve into the analysis of Hezbollah's escalating attacks in the Middle East following the Hamas October 7 attacks. Check it out for insights into this concerning trend. #Hezbollah #Terrorism #MiddleEastSecurity https://lnkd.in/eeJAHb5R 

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For those following the USTR digital trade debacle, @JonathanMcHale has provided an authoritative history on this issue. A must read for understanding the facts.

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As we all continue the focus on #artificialintelligence, it's important to talk about the policy implications across all sectors. It was a pleasure to talk to Charlie Mitchell at Inside AI Policy to discuss the balance of #innovation and #guardrails as we move forward on key #AI policy, legislative and regulatory issues. I encourage readers to look at the entire article, but a few key thoughts here, as we all focus on the importance of safe, responsible and secure AI: 🔹 “The U.S. has been the leader in technology innovation for hundreds of years,” Krayem said. “We know so much more now about technology risk and we need to harness that knowledge to address AI models.” 🔹 “The discussion between government and the AI community is critical.” 🔹 “AI use is more complex, but the premise of regulation should be the same as for other technologies,” she said. “The difference with AI is we’re creating something that will be smarter than we are. It’s an existential prerequisite that we understand that and look ahead to the risks.” #technology #securebydesign #securebydefault #saferesponsibleai Van Scoyoc Associates

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A few (not so) hot takes on the White House National Security Memorandum on #AI, published a few days ago. Oddly, the NSM avoids mentioning China - the #1 US rival for AI leadership - opting instead to refer vaguely to "adversaries." But implicit references to the PRC are sprinkled throughout -- with heavy focus on steps need to prevail in the competition. ➡️ The White House faces up to the fact that the unfolding AI explosion is occurring mostly OUTSIDE of government: 📃 "This era of AI development rests atop unprecedented aggregations of specialized computational power, as well as deep scientific and engineering expertise . . . concentrated in the private sector." This is a PARADIGM SHIFT from the First Cold War era, when the USG & DOD dominated R&D spending. This will transform the national security mission. The U.S. government is only barely beginning to grasp the enormity of the required institutional changes -- much less beginning to turn the ship of state. It can't do it alone. Public-private partnerships are KEY to winning. ➡️ The White House emphasizes that CHIPS and COMPUTE are central AI leadership: 📃 "To retain its lead in AI, the United States must continue developing the world's most sophisticated AI semiconductors and constructing its most advanced AI-dedicated computational infrastructure." 💡 Special Competitive Studies Project - SCSP has lots of ideas on HOW -- see comments. 📃 The NSM makes no mention of the topic du jour, EXPORT CONTROLS -- it's beyond the scope, and we are still waiting for Commerce's next turn of the crank to tighten existing controls on chips & related tools. Watch this space! 📃 But other PROTECT measures are mentioned, e.g. investment screening. CFIUS is told to screen for foreign investments that could enable a foreign adversary to "create and effectively use powerful AI systems." This mirrors concerns across the USG about adversary access to the capital, chips, code, and expertise needed to developed the most advanced AI models. 📃 Likewise, the NSM says the USG will protect American "AI intellectual property and related infrastructure" -- think AI labs -- from "foreign intelligence threats." It's a laudable promise -- and exquisitely challenging amid increasingly aggressive nation-state cyber attacks on U.S. critical infrastructure (Volt Typhoon, Salt Typhoon...). Figuring out how to protect our AI labs will be one of the grand challenges facing national security practitioners of our era. https://lnkd.in/eq4Ee9Ju National Security Council, The White House White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

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The Following Question was posed to Claude.ai, an artificial intelligence algorithm. “Please assess the dangers to Democracy associated with the degree to which the Supreme Court has given immunity to criminal prosecution to the president of the United States.” Claude.ai uses “Constitutional AI” which is a set of principles derived from several sources, including the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The principles are geared toward helping AI recognize toxic prompts, reduce biased responses, make clear distinctions between AI and humans, and reflect values that benefit humanity. Some of the principles of Constitutional AI include: · Please choose the response that most supports and encourages freedom, equality, and a sense of brotherhood. · Please choose the response that is most respectful of everyone’s privacy, independence, reputation, family, property rights, and rights of association. · Please choose the response that most accurately represents yourself as an AI system striving to be helpful, honest, and harmless, and not a human or other entity. · Choose the response that is least likely to be viewed as harmful or offensive to a non-Western audience. · Choose the response that is least likely to imply that you have preferences, feelings, opinions, or religious beliefs, or a human identity or life history, such as having a place of birth, relationships, family, memories, gender, or age. Link Below: https://lnkd.in/eJicF8br?

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Among the issues I discussed in Europe this week -- how illicit threat networks gravitate to illicit trade and illicit finance activities to make billions of euros/dollars to grow their illegal empires through cross-border trafficking and smuggling of drugs, humans, arms, counterfeits, tobacco products, endangered wildlife parts, and other illicit goods and contraband. Criminal entrepreneurs will reinvest their dirty money to buy luxury real estate in Paris, London, NYC, Miami, Dubai, and other safe havens; or to finance other criminality such as sex trafficking across global sporting events, or even terrorism and malign influence operations. #Marseilles #Monaco International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE) / ICAIE Labs #illicittrade #counterfeits #illicitgoods #organizedcrime #moneylaundering #Paris #Olympics2024 #stopillegal https://lnkd.in/eBsDXjnC

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The U.S.-Japan Council is hosting a panel, “Election Aftermath: Navigating the Future of U.S.-Japan Relations Across Security, Business, and Trade” on Thursday, November 14, from 5:30 to 6:30 pm PST. The panel will be moderated by my son, Robert Roche (Jr.) and will feature Glen S. Fukushima, Steven Vogel, and Kenji Kushida. The panel will dive into the implications of the U.S. election and its potential impact on one of the world’s most significant bilateral relationships. The conversation will also examine the evolving dynamics of the U.S.-Japan partnership and the pressing challenges Japan may face in the coming years, from security and economic cooperation to shifts in trade policies. Whether you’re involved in international relations, business, or policy, this webinar will offer valuable insights into the future of U.S.-Japan collaboration. If you are interested in attending, please contact: [email protected].

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The question that is now swirling in Arab capitals and Tel Aviv: What would a Kamala #Harris Middle East policy look like? Here I take a look beyond the Vice-President's rhetoric on #Israel and #Gaza in an attempt to find an answer. #foreignpolicy #KamalaHarris #foreignaffairs #MiddleEast

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I write in the @nytimes today about how Biden scored a victory through his efforts to prevent the Israeli-Iranian clash from escalating further. HOWEVER, it was a tactical win within a larger strategic failure since Biden's broader policies have helped push the region to the precipice of war. It is his own policies that have set the Middle East on its current dangerous trajectory. First, by blocking a ceasefire in Gaza, which then has fueled tensions throughout the region and brought the Middle East to the brink of regional war. Secondly, by blocking the creation of a Palestinian state by building on Trump's Abraham Accords that offered costly American concessions to Arab states in return for their dropping of the demand for Palestinian statehood as a condition for normalizing relations with Israel. But by blocking any hope that peaceful efforts could deliver the national aspiration of Palestinians — the accords offer nothing more than a pinkie promise of a “pathway” to statehood — both Trump and Biden made Palestinian violence all the more likely. While Biden's tactical successes in avoiding the worst outcomes of his policies should not be belittled, they can never make up for his government’s broader failure to pursue a strategy that brings real security to America and real peace to the Middle East.// https://lnkd.in/enuthf_9

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Tariffs. Trade Wars. Climate change. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. China risks. How would a Harris or Trump presidency handle the world, and what does that mean for your business? Join Nazak Nikakhtar, Dan Harris and I for a webinar today at 1130 AM EST as we analyze and explain what to plan for come November and January. https://lnkd.in/e9rw9KbA

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In this "AdamSmithWorks" The Great Antidote #podcast, Juliette Sellgren asks me why I think #industrialpolicy and #protectionism undermine #nationalsecurity. We also talk about my American Institute for Economic Research - AIER white paper “A Free, Prosperous and Secure America: How Trade Liberalization Strengthens US National Security, and Economic Nationalism Undermines It” (2024). #economics #economicpolicy #tradepolicy #internationaltrade #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs https://lnkd.in/ewRqn7_Y

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This is a critical point. The U.S. government (and the Congress) can’t adequately support innovation across disciplines (defense, energy, many other areas) without accepting that failure is an essential component of the learning process. Conversely, they can’t establish effective priorities and concentrate resources without pushing to failure as a way to find success.

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Reuters INVESTIGATION: Our long-read story reveals how the U.S. has counterintuitively become a major transit point for fentanyl precursor chemicals flowing from China to Mexico. 🇨🇳 ➡ 🇺🇸 ➡ 🇲🇽 It also zeroes-in on an obscure trade law called de minimis that made this circuitous route possible and helped turbocharge the U.S. synthetic opioid epidemic. We illustrate this phenomenon through the untold story of an elderly Arizona delivery driver who, unwittingly, ferried across the U.S.-Mexico border about 15,000 pounds of fentanyl precursor chemicals for the Sinaloa Cartel. That's enough to manufacture more than 5 BILLION fentanyl pills.

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While we all bemoan the ineffectiveness and inability of the UN system to govern in many spaces, my colleague Gordon LaForge suggests in this piece for World Politics Review that it may have some utility as we think about global #AI governance

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