Jason Cook

To all my network, Did you know that the The Wall Street Journal has a section dedicated to Logistics? It is a great source of news on our world The perspective is from the other side of the Atlantic, but, exactly for this same reason, more enlightening on what is going on. Trusty | Agrifood Supply Chain Management

11

The tragic collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge continues to send shockwaves through supply chains, especially with the closure of the Post of Baltimore. In the face of adversity, logistics providers like Eagle Air Freight have swiftly mobilized their resources to mitigate the consequences on their clients' import and export activities. From rerouting cargo to neighboring ports like New York/New Jersey and Norfolk to optimizing trucking and transload capacity, logistics providers are leaving no stone unturned in ensuring the continuity of their services while recovery continues. As the industry grapples with the fallout, Eagle Air Freight logistics providers urge their clients and partners to stay informed and connected. https://bit.ly/49YHT5E

7

When ports are disrupted, Brown Distribution Centers can be crucial to your supply chain. Our facility can act as a strategic buffer, providing cross-docking, value-added services, alternative transportation coordination, and real-time data visibility - all essential for maintaining flexibility and resilience during port strikes or other supply chain challenges. Learn more about the key advantages of leveraging Brown Distribution Centers in this informative article.

21

I have an opinion piece in Transport Topics this month - it discusses what TL carriers need to know about how shippers look at transportation procurement. Specifically, I address the importance of monitoring the Spot Premium Ratio and the New Rate Differential in the markets. Enjoy the short read! #TL #transportation #procurement #spotpremiumratio #newratedifferential https://lnkd.in/esxiuvdP

137

9 Comments

As we look ahead to Trump's second term, questions arise about the future of freight and logistics. Will policy changes boost the industry or create new hurdles for shippers? Check out our latest blog, which dives into the potential impacts on LTL freight, covering everything from trade policies to infrastructure developments.

2

FMCSA clearinghouse rule puts bullseye on freight capacity. Enforcement of FMCSA’s drug clearinghouse could trigger major shift in freight supply and demand. When even a small percentage of tens of thousands of trucks get forced off the road, a major freight capacity shift can ensue – and that’s exactly the scenario playing out now that states have new enforcement power over roughly 179,000 truck drivers. https://lnkd.in/dpk_7bWr Credit- Freightwaves

6

14 Comments

🚨 Trump’s Trade Tariff Pledge Sparks Urgent Supply Chain Moves Retailers and manufacturers are rushing shipments ahead of new tariffs on Chinese imports promised by President-elect Trump, driving up container demand and freight rates. Shippers anticipate higher costs, and cross-border trade with Mexico may face disruptions as companies assess shifting U.S.-Mexico trade policies. FreightWaves summarized in 10 bullet points potential trucking policy shifts: 1. Engine emissions: rollback of emissions standards on trucks. 2. Speed limiters: paused. 3. Autonomous trucks: return to less regulatory. 4. Trade/tariffs: potential tariffs on imports, impacting transportation costs. 5. Corporate taxes: lower corporate tax rates. 6. Tort reform: might push lawsuits into the federal court system. 7. Truck parking: supports the Truck Parking Safety Improvement Act. 8.  Independent contractors: support for independent contractor models. 9. Oil: boost to domestic oil production affecting fuel prices. 10. Infrastructure legislation: infrastructure reauthorization for 2026.

24

Many of you know I’ve long argued that FreightWaves Contract Load Acceptance Volume (CLAV.USA) metric is not a good representation of for-hire truckload freight volumes in the USA. The recent article Craig Fuller published (https://lnkd.in/gpa4CexE) lends support for my concerns. I want to draw attention to this quote: “Contracted load accepted volumes, another SONAR index measuring contracted load demand, tell us that the market has grown since January 2023. As of April 15, 2024, year-over-year contracted volumes are up 9%.” Here are two facts that raise serious validity concerns (in my professional academic opinion) that make me believe CLAV isn’t nationally representative: [1]: It doesn’t align with Q1 public truckload carrier financial results. When you look at the chart provided in the article, CLAV has been up throughout 2024 relative to 2023. Yet, you have carriers like JB Hunt hauling fewer loads (-6.8% YoY for dedicated and -5.2% for truckload) in Q1 2024 than Q1 2023. That decline can’t represent JBH turning down that much contractual business due to low rates from contractual customers. [2]: Other indexes such as Cass Shipments and For-Hire Trucking Ton-Miles aren’t showing strong YoY gains; they are showing the opposite in YoY declines of 2-4%. The trucking ton-mile index is nationally representative because it is constructed from the Commodity Flow Survey and various government data sources. Implication: while I really like FreightWaves’ Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA), which I believe is a good indicator of the current balance of supply and demand in the truckload sector, too many other data points result in me concluding that the underlying tender volume data are not representative of truckload freight demand. For anyone who wants to argue differently, ask yourself this: are you or most of the other carriers/brokers you know seeing 9% year-over-year increases in truckload freight volumes? JBH and Knight-Swift certainly aren’t. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics

192

16 Comments

Why does the current freight recession in the trucking sector feel so steep, yet truck transportation payrolls have declined only 2% from their mid-2022 peak (as compared with 6% drops during the 2001 freight recession and a staggering 15% during the 2007 - 2009 freight recession)? In this analyst article published yesterday in Journal of Commerce, I try to provide some answers to this question. Some key things to consider: [1]: This freight recession is middle of the road in terms of percent decline in trucking demand (measured using the trucking ton-mile index) compared to those over the last 50 years. For example, it is 33% the size of the 1973-1975 freight recession and just 25% the magnitude of the 2007-2009 freight recession. That said, the max drop in demand from March 2022 (recorded in January 2024) of 4.9% is double the depth of the 2019 freight recession. [2]: The perceived depth of the current freight recession seems to be more driven by the very sharp pull back in freight rates, with 2023 seeing record year-over-year declines in the dry van truckload sector. But important context: freight rates saw record increases in 2021 and the first half of 2022. [3]: The fact trucking demand remains weak, yet containerized imports are up high single-digit or low double-digit percentages requires a realignment of our understanding of trucking freight demand. As shown by the Commodity Flow Survey, domestic manufacturing output is much more impactful in shaping trucking freight volumes. Implication: to understand trucking demand, focus less on containerized imports and retailers' inventories to sales ratios and, instead, focus on industrial production in freight-intensive manufacturing sectors. Unfortunately, I'm seeing few signs of a demand surge coming in the second half of 2024. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking https://lnkd.in/gSRgwUPj

258

34 Comments

Supply Chain Matters highlights that a U.S. East and Gulf Coast Strike Appears Likely. Continued supply chain risk mitigation, scenario-based planning contingencies and risk balanced inventory management strategies are a must. https://lnkd.in/eKU6feut #supplychainmanagement #logistics #transportationmanagement

2

This historic #PortStrike is shaking up the supply chain. From delayed shipments to rising costs, its impact will be wide-reaching. Get the full scoop on what’s happening and the strategies companies are using to stay agile during these tough times in e2open's blog below! #MovingAsOne P.S. Comment below what you think the biggest impact will be!

2

According to a new report, U.S. port and import performance was strong in May. Container import volumes rose by 6.2% from April and by 11.9% year-over-year. For the most part, growth was driven by increased imports from China, Japan, and Taiwan. But there are some concerns that lingering global supply chain disruptions—conditions at the Panama and Suez Canals, the Middle East conflict, and labor negotiations—could still have an impact this year. #thefreightarchitects #jaguarfreight #logistics

1

Go watch the show we recorded at the Broker Carrier Summit Safety panel!

4

I have long suspected FreightWaves data on truckload tender volumes and accepted loads are strongly weighted towards consumer-centric freight, especially containerized imports. Their most recent market update provides more evidence for my claim. Consider the following: •Accepted tenders have been up ~7% in 2024 from 2023. Do you know what else has been up by a similar amount in 2024 from 2023? Metric tonnage of containerized waterborne imports from Asia, which are up 14.5% year-over-year for 2024 from 2023 on a year-to-date basis. •The article mentions that tender volumes are up 15.8% today than in 2019. As tender rejection rates in 2019 and today are similar, tender volumes and load volumes would result in similar conclusions. I'm very confident that this isn't the case when you look at all of trucking freight (my trucking ton-mile index's most recent readings are within 2% of 2019 levels). However, containerized imports have steadily increased since 2019 and are following the pre-COVID trendline (and are up by roughly the amount FW's is reporting for their trucking volume data). Implication: you need to look closely at different data sources for trucking freight volumes to try and infer what industries receive the most weight. I've long felt Cass is industrial-heavy. FreightWaves appears to be the opposite. My own trucking ton-mile index is heavily slanted towards domestic manufacturing (specifically food, chemicals ex pharma, nonmetallic mineral products, paper, and primary metals) because of the Commodity Flow Survey. Things to keep in mind as you select which indexes to give more weight when undertaking strategic planning (e.g., if you are a carrier with lots of exposure to containerized imports, FreightWaves' data would likely be your preferred metric). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking https://lnkd.in/giQiCCHf

189

20 Comments

#Interesting and very #DESPERATE times ... if some carriers have embraced the concept of a "Loss Leader" just to keep the doors open. The concept of ... "Yea, we lose a $1 on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume" has #NEVER worked in retail and it definitely won't work here in trucking where it's #NOT $1 per load, but hundreds of dollars per load. I get it that there are some carriers that are just barely staying alive and hoping and praying the #CashFlow will keep them alive to fight another day. But losing money on loads, is #NEVER a good idea, especially when you are struggling. I personally know of one such TL carrier with over 400 trucks out of the Northwest that may not survive the month. I hope and pray that they do, for the sake of the drivers and employees. But when #Leadership is too proud to admit their mistakes, and unwilling to accept the recommendations of those wanting and willing to assist to help the carrier survive ... and even provide those services on a Pro Bono basis (for some that may not know the term, that's for #No #Charge) ... there's not much that friends or associates can do. Anyhow, enough about that ... read the article and I'm sure you'll walk away scratching your head. https://lnkd.in/gsvQDjCb

3

On Tuesday, we ran a FreightCaviar survey to get a better understanding of the freight job market. 234 people responded—mostly freight brokers, but also dispatchers, freight tech professionals, and shippers. Read all the insights in todays free FreightCaviar newsletter on FreightCaviar.com. (You’ll need to subscribe to get access.)

38

3 Comments

https://lnkd.in/gCCzC63p The article highlights the changes TFI makes to adapt to ever changing situations. #freightwaves

1

EC Labor Negotiations update - Concern Grows for U.S. Dock Strike as USMX and ILA Make Opposing Statements As the labor contract expiration date approaches, the tense situation between ILA and USMX is causing concern. ILA and USMX have started making public statements, despite their initial agreement to keep the negotiations private. The primary issue is the use of automation, which ILA opposes due to concerns of job losses. Here is an interesting article talking more in depth of current situation and the potential impact of a strike.

1

The role of Supply Chain Leaders continues to expand well beyond supplies. This was just one of the topics we covered during the Reimagine Supply Chain panel discussion with Jennifer McPherren and John Wright at today's #VAHRMM2024 conference.

94

7 Comments