Angela Lee

The Evolving Landscape of Venture Capital: Are Emerging Managers DOA? There’s been a lot of debate lately around whether the VC ecosystem is being negatively impacted by the largest firms hoovering up LP money at the expense of Emerging Managers. The observation is real and it’s becoming increasingly clear that the venture capital industry is at a critical inflection point. But the phenomenon isn’t new. It’s been unfolding for years and was easy to spot. I wrote about it a few years back in a presentation titled “The Three Body Problem: Finding The New Stable Points In Venture Capital” and I’ll add a link in the replies if you’re interested in learning more. With this said, other experts have been writing about it as well. For instance, @wolfejosh ’s recent prediction that 30-50% of venture firms may cease to exist in the coming years is not just a provocative statement, but a stark warning to Emerging Managers and many established VC firms. When we consider that only 17% of venture funds make it to fund 4, and that 44% of VC capital raised this year went to just two firms, it becomes clear that the industry is starting to consolidate. This consolidation is not just a theoretical concern to Emerging Managers - it's a very real threat to the diversity and dynamism that has long been the hallmark of the very early stage VC ecosystem. However, while the outlook may seem bleak for many Emerging Managers, I believe there is a path forward. The key lies in understanding what Founders and LP are struggling to find within the "established" VC ecosystem and aligning with these unmet market needs. For Emerging Managers, the writing is on the wall: adapt or perish. The days of simply working hard and expressing a desire to LPs that you deserve to be a VC are long gone. Today's landscape demands true differentiation and specialized skill. Emerging Managers will do best if they position themselves firmly within one of two key boxes: The Solo VC or the Non-Consensus Alpha seeker. Hunting in thematically consensus spaces or chasing serial Founders with many options is a good way for an Emerging Manager to fail. The Solo VC Option Not all Emerging Managers fit in the Solo VC box. It requires a unique combination of skills, experience, and network that can provide outsized value to founders. Solo VCs win deals not because they can write the biggest checks, but because they can provide the most value per dollar invested. They are often industry veterans, serial entrepreneurs, or individuals with deep expertise in specific sectors. Their ability to provide hands-on mentorship, make crucial introductions, and offer strategic guidance is their competitive advantage. They need to be a “brand” in and of themselves, and if they aren’t, they’ll struggle to source and win deals. (For the full post click on the link that follows. LinkedIn limits word count!) https://lnkd.in/e_jqxhks

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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With Assets-Under-Management(AUM) and hold-periods being record high, Exits are strategic priority for investors to make private equity flywheel spin again...Looking forward to Real Deals summit how operating partners are collaborating with portfolio companies on exit readiness including coherent equity story with due-diligence mindset and robust value creation plan.

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I've participated in 100+ conversations with venture fund LPs this year. The most frequently discussed topics include: Team dynamics Sourcing differentiation Decision-making and selection process Portfolio support Sector thesis Track record Model and deployment strategy Network Long-term vision Timing (why now) References Fund infrastructure and reporting

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Divestment requirements have a very real cost. This reduces the ability of endowments and foundations to support their mission driven enterprises. As the list of divestment demands grow, at what point do the consequences outweigh the perceived benefits? Hiding at the end of this article is the below quote: Golden admitted the divestment had undermined Princo’s returns, saying the endowment “would have been better off” otherwise. But he pointed to a bigger concern: the pressure to “keep adding things to divest from”. “Fossil fuels are necessarily part of getting to where the overall economy needs to be [and] it would be impossible for the world to not use fossil fuels tomorrow,” he said. “Divestment is a pretty weak tool to change the economy.” https://lnkd.in/g3SeC8rg #energy #investing #vc

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"Small funds may have more incentive to produce higher returns The alignment of incentives between GP and LP varies drastically based on fund size. Managers of smaller funds who have invested substantial personal capital demonstrate an unwavering commitment to lucrative returns, while managers at the helm of colossal funds, buoyed by significant management fees, may exhibit a diminishing drive. This constitutes an almost incontrovertible structural benefit of managing a small VC fund. Furthermore, fund managers of established funds may, over time, raise larger subsequent funds and grow more risk averse. This can present a sub-optimal outcome for their LPs and, by virtue, manifests a bad omen for VC investing." https://lnkd.in/gHKgea4e

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Like other venture building groups, at 9point8 Collective we have our own methods of evaluating and screening for great leaders. Empathy is pretty high on the list, but maybe not for the reasons you might think. - Successful companies deliver for their customers. As a leader, it is hard to understand your customers -- who will almost certainly have an entirely different reality and worldview than you -- without empathy. When was the last time you saw a product launch and thought "wow I don't really get it but I can see how THEY would love it." It happens a lot. - Successful companies have loyal and capable employees. What drives a capable employee to eschew potentially more lucrative offers elsewhere? For most, it starts with being heard, appreciated, and valued. Again, empathy goes a long way here. - Empathy breeds humility. If someone fundamentally does not appreciate the perspective of others, how likely are they to truly test their own assumptions and seek out new perspectives? Hubris creates blind spots and blind spots create inefficiencies, then limitations, then weaknesses. Empathy is not the end all be all, but it's a simple and effective mechanism to learn, course-correct, and build momentum. #venturebuilding

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“You can have a great product, but a compelling story puts the company in motion” - Ben Horowitz Understanding your company’s narrative is crucial when looking for investment. 🚀🚀🚀 Particularly in DeepTech where a good narrative makes complex ideas easy to grasp and compelling to hear. It involves more than throwing together some facts and figures; it’s about finding a message that resonates with your audience on a deeper level. It should never be a one-off effort. It should always be a continuous process of refinement through iteration, collaboration, and honest feedback. 🔁 What problem are you trying to solve? Have you asked your customers? Have you solicited honest feedback? In the end, it's about answering the all-important question… Why should they care? 🤘 #narrative #venturebuilder #deeptech Cambridge Future Tech

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Today kicks off #ToughTech Week in Boston - five days of events showcasing the best of VCs and founders changing the world through science and technology! Come check it out if you are in town. #deeptech #dualuse #venturecapital

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Stepping into the SVIYP membership means stepping up your startup game. From explainer videos to expert tips, we’ve tailored our resources to guide you through every phase of your business growth. But it’s more than just resources; it’s about the connections you make here. Being part of this community offers you ongoing support from people who understand the challenges and triumphs of entrepreneurship. #Entrepreneurs #InvestorReady

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Best Investors & "The Art of Execution" Book & Study by Lee Freeman-Shor: https://buff.ly/3wRjMXU A study of 1,866 investments made by 45 of the world’s top investors over 7 years - with key Insights translated for PE Execution over ideas: - In PE, the success of an investment is heavily reliant on execution, not just the quality of the initial investment thesis - it is key to focus on operational improvements and capital-efficient commercial growth to drive value Adaptability: Be prepared to adapt strategies based on the performance of portfolio companies and market conditions - flexibility can lead to better outcomes when initial assumptions do not always hold true Operational & GTM Excellence: - In PE, operational & GTM improvements and strong management practices can significantly enhance the value of portfolio companies Active Management: Take an active (& collaborative) role as a partner to your portfolio companies and support your management teams in implementing best practices, providing strategic direction (e.g. GTM), all key to driving value Leveraging Expertise Effectively: - Utilize the expertise and experience not just of the investment team but also the PE operating partners to support portfolio Long-Term Focus: Maintain a long-term perspective on value creation - while short-term monthly or quarterly performance is important, the ultimate goal is to build sustainable, long-term value (which takes patience) in portfolio companies Performance Monitoring (using the right metrics): Monitor the performance of portfolio companies against the right benchmarks (for example, some of the elusive GTM benchmarks) - this allows for the right adjustments to strategies Risk Management: - Manage risks proactively by identifying potential issues early and developing mitigation strategies. This includes both financial risks and operational & GTM risks within portfolio companies Money Management: - Effective allocation of capital and management of portfolio companies are crucial Exit Strategies: - Plan and execute exit strategies meticulously to maximize returns. This includes preparing portfolio companies for sale or public offering and timing exits to optimize value realization --------- #pe #privateequity #business

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Last week, I had the pleasure of moderating a discussion on navigating FOAK in climate tech at the Greentown Labs Summit in Boston (which had >600 people!!). Here’s a quick rundown of what was shared by Katherine St. James of Spring Lane Capital, Paris Smalls, PhD of Eden GeoPower, and Hannah Friedman of Planeteer Capital: 🌱 What is the definition of FOAK? We discussed how the term can be controversial - it's almost too general because it doesn't identify what kind of "First" FOAK refers to - first team project? First geography? First of a technology in a sector? First time for the integration of a system? It's also too specific because it has the word "first" in it, which can be anathema to later stage / project finance investors. 💰 Partnerships for Funding FOAK Projects We discussed how important it is to build a blended capital stack & use off-balance sheet capital for a project so you're not using the most expensive equity dollars to fund an infrastructure project with low-ish IRR. We also talked through being creative about using corporate partners to provide in-kind services or ink some agreement (at least an LOI) to attract this funding. 🏛 Role of Government We talked about how government capital is seen by investors & how it can be catalytic for FOAK. Government capital can provide validation that a startup has passed a rigorous diligence process by a third party - and incentives like grants or credits can help improve returns for the first project- but it's important to be doing this in conjunction with getting customer validation and to be able to present line of sight to competitive economics without concessionary capital. 👥 Advice for FOAK startups The panelists offered some very specific pieces of advice for startups going through FOAK: how to get creative with things like revenue sharing agreements or convertible notes, getting smart with project development early on (like with DeveloperU), being careful about using FOAK too liberally with certain investor groups, getting the right commercialization / FOAK talent in and around you early Huge thanks to the panelists and the team at Greentown Labs (Jill Kirkpatrick, Julia Travaglini, Aisling Carlson, etc you rocked it!!) for hosting this discussion on bridging the FOAK gap. Also immensely enjoyed the rest of the agenda. Check out the full recap & videos here: https://lnkd.in/d9ApYe9Y #ClimateTech #FOAK #ClimateFinance #ProjectDevelopment #GreenTech #CleanEnergy

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What should investors expect from the VC industry over the next 3-5 years when it comes to exits and performance? Rick Zullo, on X, has argued that there will be a greater divergence between VC funds, with the most successful ones producing even stronger performance, while the median fund return will reduce. I would agree with this as we are likely to see fewer, but typically larger, exits. It will become more important than ever to have meaningful exposure to the small number of winners that drive VC performance. We saw this divergence in VC fund performance very clearly after the 2008/09 financial crisis. As you can see from the chart below, it was the top-tier, established managers who make up our Core Manager cohort that massively outperformed as the market recovered. We have identified three key factors that we believe materially contributed to this outperformance: 1. Quality of portfolio companies. We know that VC is a power law asset class, but the distribution of returns is even more concentrated after a correction. The number of successful exits falls significantly and the small number of VCs able to back these companies will materially outperform. We usually see the best companies actually improve their competitive positioning during a correction. They become more capital efficient, increase market share and benefit from many of their competitors being unable to survive. 2. Availability of capital. In a downturn, even the very best companies will usually need to raise additional capital. As a VC, if you don't have the capital to support these companies and protect your ownership, then you are in trouble. The best VCs can still raise new funds even in the worst of markets and will have the capital to ensure their best companies survive. 3. Willingness to continue to invest during the most challenging periods. The best managers have the experience of managing through prior downturns as well as the confidence (and the capital) to take advantage of the opportunities that a correction creates. This means that they can double down on their best companies, often at attractive valuations, and also access market leaders they may have missed in prior rounds. We have seen a major flight to quality from LPs to date in 2024, with a small number of VCs responsible for the vast majority of capital raised. Unfortunately, this is shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. Venture capital is a cyclical asset class - corrections are a feature, not a bug. This means that LPs need to construct a portfolio that not only captures the upside as the market rises, but is also resilient during a downturn.

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🔥 🔥 🙌 🙌 🎆 🎆 I'm *fired up* to share this. #VentureIQ by the 9point8 Collective is officially live. We've heard from investors of every size and type that it takes too long and costs too much to evaluate deal flow; this limits the scale and speed at which these capital allocators can operate. To address this problem, we've created an innovative solution which delivers high fidelity diligence information near instantaneously. From a time and cost perspective, VentureIQ immediately creates leverage to look at more deals - and creates space to focus deeply on the most meaningful opportunities. To learn more, you can reach out to me directly or visit VentureIQ.ai. I'll close with some thoughts on my team, to whom I'm so grateful. Blair Merlino, Neal Ghosh and Evan Allen don't just talk about interesting concepts, point out problems or pontificate on what could be. Instead, they identify a problem, frame and validate the solution, and do the work to bring it to reality. VentureIQ is the best example I've seen of this, to date. #VentureCapital, #FamilyOffice, #PrivateEquity #CorporateDevelopment #Startups

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Founders I work with will hear me beat this drum over and over again - don't rely on LTV:CAC, it's not actually helpful in practice because it shows a point in time. Instead, we must orient our thinking around tracking performance over time - hence using a CCAC analysis instead (Cohort CAC). Best learning cycles don't come from a point in time but looking at what happens over time ie. analyze your monthly cohorts (that's 12 learning cycles a year!). Longer article about this in the comments #metrics #metrics #metrics

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One of the things we see quite often at Grit Capital Partners, is a newly minted CEO. We see a big difference in the transition to CEO based upon the historical lane the CEO is coming from. There are different new muscles if you are coming from Product, Engineering, Finance, etc. In this article, we go deep on the CRO to CEO transition, which includes some thoughts from Rosie O'Meara, a particularly fine example of someone who has made the transition quite well. What were your biggest transition moments? https://lnkd.in/eEB-K2ZU

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Understanding Power Laws in VC: A Double-Edged Sword In venture capital, the power law theory—the idea that a small number of investments generate the vast majority of returns—drives much of the strategy from a General Partner (GP) perspective. It’s why so many funds double down on high-risk, high-reward investments, chasing those outliers that can make or break a portfolio. From a GP’s seat, this strategy makes sense: you’re betting that one or two companies will achieve explosive growth, justifying the entire portfolio between vintages. But for Limited Partners (LPs), this approach presents challenges unless they’re invested and diversified in multiple vintages across various funds under one manager. If you’re only in a few of their funds and miss the “unicorn” vintages, your returns are likely to underperform relative to the broader VC market. And as an employee of a fund, you better be able to hang on for every vintage. If you’re sidelined or decide to leave, there goes the theory—and all the deferred compensation tied to it! Bye-bye phantom equity. The reality is that LPs, especially those investing in just one or two funds, often take on considerable risk with no guarantee of exposure to the outliers that power the returns. Unlike GPs who build a diversified portfolio of startups within a single fund, LPs often don’t have that same diversity unless they consistently commit across multiple fund cycles. In a world driven by power law dynamics, it’s crucial for LPs to consider a strategy that mitigates the variability inherent in individual fund outcomes. For those who can’t invest in every vintage, there’s a case for a more balanced approach that offers diversification across sectors and geographies—a hedge against the cyclical nature of VC returns. Would love to hear others’ thoughts on how LPs and fund employees can best navigate the ups and downs of the VC landscape in a power law-driven world.

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This article could not come at a better time for me and my fund (Danta Fund ). After attending a recent Summit where I felt the industry of #startups and #vc has become too generalist and differentation is hard to find, I now know to include Danta Fund as (per the article below) a " Non-Consensus Alpha". 💪 It sounds pretentious, yes, but the description fits sooo well. Danta Fund is a specialized #agtech fund that provides #smartmoney to our founders. We are not only writing checks: we CONNECT, we MENTOR, we BUILD. 💥 As a recent colleague from another specialized Non-Consensus Alpha emerging fund told me (Andres Baehr from SAVIA Ventures ): we, specialized emerging funds need to find a way to thrive among the sea of VCs. It's like going back to when we were thinking about what to study in uni: -what am I great at? -what do I feel passionate about? -how can I make a difference in this world. #vc #truepassion #ikigai

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