Carl Andersen

US TRAFFIC MODELLING: A BLACK BOX GONE BAD? The recent edition of Dissent Magazine has an interesting discussion about the state of US traffic modelling. The problem the authors - Joseph Cortright and Benjamin Ross - raise is above my pay grade but one one of the questions they infer is, perhaps transportation planners / traffic engineers / community leadership are trying too hard to forecast the future? We can all agree that the last 20 years there have been at least 2 major world wide events that have derailed our future forecasts: both professional and personal. The one point they raised that we can all agree with is "Indeed, the best possible forecast may be one that forgoes elaborate computations altogether: in crowded urban areas, traffic congestion will remain the same, whether highways get wider or narrower. This prediction is far from perfect; no one doubts, for instance, that widening a highway at a bottleneck point can move the traffic jam elsewhere. But in our experience, it is substantially more accurate on average than current traffic modeling." Students of traffic engineering and planning go talk among yourselves and with your professors about this topic. https://lnkd.in/gkFn4dcB

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U.S. High Speed Rail Coalition unveils roadmap with guidance on how to launch high-speed rail project June 17, 2024 The first-of-its-kind action plan is intended to equip advocates with practical tips, realistic expectations and strategic support as they work to launch new high-speed train projects in their regions. The U.S. High Speed Rail Coalition unveiled a roadmap with guidance on how to launch a high-speed rail project. The first-of-its-kind action plan is intended to equip advocates with practical tips, realistic expectations and strategic support as they work to launch new high-speed train projects in their regions.  “High-speed rail lines are complex megaprojects with unique challenges,” said Bernard Cohen, senior advisor for planning and operations at Alternate Concepts Inc., as well as former Massachusetts Department of Transportation secretary and the principal author of the roadmap. “We’ve created a practical guide that demystifies what’s involved in launching a new high-speed rail project.”  The report, “High-Speed Rail Projection Initiation: A Roadmap for Advocates”, focuses on five key building blocks of success:   Organization   Technical planning   Strategic engagement   Project funding   Compelling communications  The report argues that long-term, strategic advocacy campaigns are required to launch new high-speed projects. When designing campaigns, advocates must be fully aware of potential pitfalls, as well as likely sources of support and opposition.    The roadmap notes that a recent survey by Public Policy Polling for the Coalition found that 72 percent of U.S. registered voters support the creation of a nationwide high-speed rail network in the U.S. According to Ezra Silk, political director of the U.S. High-Speed Rail Coalition, a major goal of the report is to help build a grassroots movement for a national high-speed rail network.  “Launching high-speed rail involves technical experts but you don’t need to be a transportation planner to take the lead in bringing high-speed rail to your community,” Silk said. “Millions of Americans want high-speed rail and this report will help give them the tools they need to turn their bullet train dreams into reality.”  The roadmap was designed by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. In May, the 600,000-member union announced a voluntary recognition agreement with Siemens Mobility to represent workers who will build the trainsets for the Brightline West high-speed rail project that will connect Las Vegas, Nev., to southern California by 2028. 

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Here’s an Environmental Awareness Month truth bomb: The world has run out of old-growth trees. Young saplings can’t fill the shoes of century-old giants. They aren’t strong enough, and no combination of chemicals or species mix can make them last longer. And because the railroad industry alone consumes 6 million trees annually for ties, Evertrak has decided we’re not going to sit back and just watch the crisis unfold when a forest of recycled plastic is right outside the door in every community in America. Our composite ties are engineered to be as strong as mature wood, they last 5x longer in high-rot areas, and they’re made from recycled plastic. Old-growth forests don’t grow back overnight. (They call it a “century oak” because it takes 100 years to grow.)  Let’s give those young 30-year trees a fighting chance to see 2094. #Evertrak #SemperTie #RailroadTransformation #EnvironmentalAwarenessMonth

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Here's a map showing the #frequency of light rail services across #Buffalo city in the U.S. and its surroundings as of June 1910. The width of the lines on the map indicates the train #connection times of every: ➝ 7.5 minutes ➝ 15 minutes ➝ 30 minutes ➝ 1 hour The thicker the line, the more frequent the connection. It's worth mentioning that north-bound trains were operating every 7.5 minutes! 🕑 This indicates the impressive #growth of the region as an important #industrial hub at the beginning of the 20th century. In addition, there were three operational lines providing services for passengers at that time: 🟥 - International Railway 🟨 - Buffalo & Lake Erie 🟩 - Buffalo & Williamsville Map credits: fiftythreestudio _ _ _ 👍 Like if you find value, re-post ♻️, and follow for more interesting tech, and innovation insights.

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Check out useful resources on how to get started with Vissim and the more advanced how-to videos and webinars.

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I'm reading Wes Marshall's 'Killed by a Traffic Engineer". It's an eye-opener, destroying so many myths that pepper transportation planning. Often based on erroneous or missing data, influenced by lobbyists, they result in avoidable casualties and victims being seen as the problem. An alarming read. Marshall concludes, “like doctors for their first 1,000 years, we spent our first 100 years [of the traffic engineering profession] killing more people than we saved. It’s about time we flip the script and start contributing to better safety. So what are you gonna do about it?” An excellent review by Robert Steuteville #transportation #roadsafety #traffic #automotive #SUV #decideandprovide https://lnkd.in/eq-fWFUv

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Agree or Disagree? FREQUENCY is better than FREE to drive increased #transit use, and low income ticket programs are a better way to make transit more accessible and to create mobility and opportunity without the unwanted secondary issues from #FareFreeTransit, such as social problems moving onto the vehicle making travel unwelcoming and the reduction of revenue making higher frequency service unaffordable. https://lnkd.in/eqAvHGXD

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‘Human factors’ are under appreciated and under applied in roads, road safety and transport generally. For instance, this report found: “ human presence enlists automatic mental resources that can help drivers resist distractions. “ “ roadways should be broken into segments (salient interruptions) to prevent an attentive driver from reaching fatigue or frustration.” “FDOT is poised to consider a new perspective on Complete Streets that incorporates non-motorized travel modes as a driving force behind the policy.” There is much more work to be done and applied here, including updating outdated engineering oriented road design standards. Well done, Florida Department of Transportation and everyone involved. You can find the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gsmi5UX7 (Sorry, I can't find Volume 2) #roadsafety

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To my RR colleagues A comment or two A tool kit for testing alternatives Monetizes costs and benefits using birth suggested and/or user variables. It is NOT a prescribed plan for construction. It suggests different ways to test for how sharing risks and rewards can alter the investment outcome when and if choosing OCS technology. On corridors the user organization(s) select to consider. Yet, it is NOT an optimization model. It doesn’t pick a best choice. User interaction and thinking are required. I am one of the 4-authors. Cheers! Jim.

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BRT projects can contribute to enhanced #mobility by providing efficient, accessible and sustainable #transportation. HNTB's Sean Libberton and E. Gregory Thorpe, PE share insights on a collaborative program management approach that can streamline delivery to bring that vision to reality. https://bit.ly/3xM7eS5

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The **old train from the 1940s** evokes a sense of nostalgia for a time when railroads were a primary means of long-distance transportation, connecting cities and shaping the rhythms of everyday life. Trains in the 1940s were often a symbol of industrial progress, representing both the glory of modern technology and the rugged history of earlier locomotive advancements. This particular train, likely steam-powered, would have had large, billowing smokestacks, puffing clouds of steam as it powered down the tracks. In the 1940s, trains were still an essential part of both passenger travel and freight transport, despite the rise of cars and planes. The photo captures an era when these machines were at the height of their operational use, transporting people and goods across vast distances in ways that were still vital to economies and societies. Trains from the 1940s, especially in the years surrounding World War II, had a distinct and industrial aesthetic. The design of the locomotives was both functional and imposing, with a focus on durability and performance. The trains were typically long, with steel and iron construction that conveyed strength and reliability. During this time, trains were also used extensively for wartime purposes, transporting soldiers, supplies, and equipment to and from various fronts. The 1940s were a transformative time for railroads, as many countries were transitioning from steam to diesel-electric engines, making them more efficient and easier to maintain. While the photograph of the train might show a steam locomotive in action, it also represents a transitional period in transportation history, as the railways began to modernize in the post-war era. The train in the 1940s symbolized not only the industrial boom of the early 20th century but also the changing social and cultural dynamics of the time. It was a time when train travel was often seen as a more luxurious, romantic mode of transportation, particularly in the United States and Europe. People traveled by train for vacations, business, and even migration, as the railways were the arteries connecting far-flung parts of a nation. For many, riding a train in the 1940s was an experience of comfort, with dining cars and sleeping cabins offering a higher level of service than modern transit options today. However, by the end of the decade, the rapid growth of air travel and the increasing ownership of automobiles would soon begin to change how people thought of trains. The photo of this old train, therefore, is a glimpse into a world that is slowly fading, giving us a chance to reflect on how transportation technology shaped the lives of those who lived through it.

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Worth the read here for those interested in Ghost Buses: https://lnkd.in/gM88HYUc I have always felt that showing scheduled buses and indicating which are reporting in real-time (typically with a standard 'WiFi" like icon) is the best approach as you avoid the "Phantom" bus. It also allows one to see the reliability of the agency by showing what should show up, what is reporting and what does show up.

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#PPS2024 Part2of5 - Encourages Strategic Growth Areas and MTSA 🤷‍♂️ - Kept from the Growth Plan, some minimum density targets for Major Transit Station Areas (“MTSA”) - While #PPS2024 states a 500 - 800 radius of transit, most MTSA delineation does not follow this concept - MapYourProperty has all #MTSA mapped in #GTHA - MAP of MTSA for York, Peel, Durham; looks messy due to different ROPAs

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David Zipper wrote this article about a book I'm reading, Killed by a Traffic Engineer: Shattering the Delusion that Science Underlies Our Transportation System, by Wes Marshall, himself an engineer. If you are tired of peeling back the layers of our transportation systems, and trying to figure out why the US (especially Florida) has more fatalities and serious injury crashes than our peers, get the book and let's talk! https://lnkd.in/eabgATuC

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Railmaps are always interesting pieces of information. They may be non-topographical such as the CSX map below, preferring a simple 2-D perspective. However maps can also tell us history, and why? Many have scratched their head on why CSX, owns a piece of ex-Rock Island track from Bureau Junction, IL-Joilet, IL. Stepping back in time, this portion of the Rock Island, was home to some significant manufacturing. Mainly based around lead smelting, chemicals and agribusiness. The Rock Island, interchanged a vast amount of this carload business to the Baltimore & Ohio. Yet as the case with many Midwestern regions over the decades. Facilities would close based on numerous economic factors, with a resulting decline in carload traffic. Decades of merger activity would eventually put B&O, in the CSX family tree. The Rock would be liquidated in 1980, with this section going to CSX. To this day while the business in the valley, is a shadow of its former self. CSX still operates some fairly heavy locals to and from Barr Yard, in Chicago. Commonly exceeding 10,000 tons. These trains still provide us with a reminder of what use to be. I’ll add this tidbit somewhat relating to this piece of track. CSX interchanges with Iowa Interstate. Yet I’ve always considered if CSX were to purchase the IAIS, it could potentially open new markets for rail, as Iowa happens to be a important producer of, cereals, and proteins (pork, turkey, eggs [no eggs will go by rail😏, at least not anytime soon]). Most of this production heads east. Not to mention, including a hypothetical purchase of the Iowa Nothern, adding more density to the network. This would also give CSX, reach to Omaha, another source of cereal production and meat packing.. With an intermodal ramp in Omaha/Council Bluffs, Sioux City, IA is within the periphery, adding yet another major producer of food products. Drayage distance would be reasonable at ~97 miles one way. Traffic capture is the goal here. Yet CN, is getting the IANR, and IAIS remains a regional… Much traffic originating in the Upper half of the Mississippi Watershed, heads east, and you guessed it the vast majority of that goes by truck. When does the tide turn?

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WEEKLY RAIL TRAFFIC: AAR reports rail traffic for the week ending September 21, 2024 👉 https://lnkd.in/esTdas8d For a deeper analysis, read the Rail Industry Overview 👉 http://aar.org/RIO

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Some interesting highlights on the current state of US public transit vehicles from American Public Transportation Association. Now we know that there are currently over 1,100 ‘zero-emission’ vehicles in service across various cities and towns in the US. And of particular interest is the fact that 32% of buses on order are ‘battery electric buses’. This represents a great shift in country that’s generally percived to be ‘pro-private car’. And whilst there’s lots of federal money been thrown at adoption of low/zero emission public transit vehicles, efficiency of the US local supply chain when it comes to vehicle assembly and after sales is still posing a very big challenge. With the likes of Proterra and Van Hool going bankrupt, this leaves just only two bus manufacturing companies serving a country half the size of Europe (!). It becomes even more challenging when you factor in the ‘Buy America’ regulations attached to the federal funding. This ‘market distortion’, albeit unintended, has now created an ‘oligopoly’ market structure, which of course impacts pricing. Whilst this might not actually be problem for operators and transit agencies because govt is mostly responsible for writing off the cost of acquition of these buses through federal grants, operators/transit agencies still have to contend with procurement of spare parts (after sales). And with just two companies, we have seen lead time for delivery of parts increase significantly, thus impacting vehicle downtime. So if the US transit system is going to get ahead in this game of bus electrification, then the current friction in the local supply network needs to be fixed. As it is right now, it takes an average of almost one year from order to delivery of new electric bus in the US. Whereas, I can have a new electric bus ordered and shipped to me anywhere in the world from China in less than six months. #publictransit

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