Steven Billigmeier

The value of distressed assets in the #CRE marketplace continued to grow in the U.S. into Q3'24. Still, the ramp up is not as rapid as that seen following the GFC as there are different forces at play in the current market. Read more about the source of distress and a chart on comparisons to the GFC by my colleague Alexis Maltin here: http://ms.spr.ly/6049WR4GN MSCI Real Assets

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JLL reported revenue and profit growth in Q1 thanks to effective cost-cutting measures and higher deal activity. - Total Revenue: $5.1B, up 9% YoY - Leasing Revenue: $497.3M, up 2% YoY - Capital Markets Revenue: up 6% YoY - Profit: $66.1M vs. $9.2M loss in the same period last year

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The #multifamily sector is experiencing several headwinds, including rising construction and operating expenses, a surge in new supply, rising borrowing costs and, in some cases, falling rental rates – but the outlook for 2024 may not be as black-and-white as it appears. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gSBWaxYA #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateTrends

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Yesterday’s Fed rate cut was bigger than expected, how does that influence the commercial real estate market? 🏦 Erin Lavelle shared insights with Commercial Property Executive, discussing how this rate cut influences debt markets and leverage in the space and why the next 6-12 months present compelling opportunities for dealmaking. Read the full article here: https://ow.ly/8LpR50TrhTX #interestrates #fed #cre #realestate

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I had a great conversation with Michael Bull, CCIM about the retail property market last week. Check out the recording here: https://lnkd.in/grHfbEXV #CRE MSCI Real Assets

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In the face of stagnant interest rates, the commercial real estate (CRE) market is beginning to show signs of recovery. Despite an 8% drop in sales in Q1 2024 compared to the previous year, this is an improvement from the significant decline seen in late 2023. High-value transactions over $50M are on the rise, signaling renewed activity. However, the market eagerly anticipates interest rate cuts to foster meaningful growth. Multifamily, industrial, and retail properties are seeing increased sales, while the office sector lags due to prior large transactions. #vhgcregroup #cre #commercialrealestate #economicrecovery #interestrates

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Some insights on a new piece from JLL Research. From the perspective of a client facing advisor, I see clear progress on the return to the office side for Fortune 100 companies. This momentum continues to grow and Fall 2024 will be the key indicator of the new stabilized market. The shifting population toward the south and southwest are clear for job expansion. Still getting lots or inquiries on Florida, Atlanta, and Nashville + TEXAS. Just completed a broad market review and Class A + Trophy in the NFL cities and the vacancy + sublease levels are still high in the 15-20% range. For example Chicago has 47 Million SF of office space available, which is about the same size of the Class A CBD total market for Philadelphia, Houston and LA. This will continue to put pressure on investors who acquired assets in 2017-2020 at high values and low financing costs.

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The industrial real estate market continues to evolve, and our latest Q2 2024 report uncovers some key trends driving the industry. Some key takeaways: • Net absorption totaled 637K SF, bringing the YTD total to 2.0M SF. • The overall vacancy rate saw a modest increase, reaching 3.9%. • Rent growth slowed but asking rent remained relatively stable at $7.53/SF NNN. • 893K SF of space was delivered in Q2, with an additional 3.9M SF of construction underway. For more insights, read the full report.

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🌆🏢 From Fixer-Uppers to High-Rises: A Commercial Real Estate Advisor's Guide to ARV vs. Value-Add 🌟 Hey there, fellow investors! 👋 As a commercial real estate advisor, I get a front-row seat to the exciting (and sometimes confusing) world of property investment. 🏠➡️🏢 Lately, I've noticed more residential investors wanting to dive into commercial real estate. But here's the catch: the strategies that work for flipping houses don't always apply to office buildings and retail spaces. 🏢💡 One common confusion? The concept of "ARV" (After Repair Value). Many clients come to me, eyes sparkling with dreams of quick flips and tidy profits, asking about the ARV of commercial properties. That's when I gently break the news: ARV, as you know it, isn't really a thing in commercial real estate. 🏠❌🏢 Curious about how to navigate these waters? 🌊 Check out my latest guide where I break it all down! 🔍👉 Read the full story here: https://bit.ly/45GJRGg #CommercialRealEstate #RealEstateInvestment #PropertyInvestment #InvestSmart #RealEstateTips #ValueAdd

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Since the beginning of the year, various players in CRE have been predicting the approach of a market bottom to the fall that began in 2022. MSCI's Capital Trends report for the second quarter of 2024 adds another voice with a more definitive tone. The firm said that the slide in deal volume and pricing "came to an end in the second quarter." Using data from the RCA CPPI National All-Property Index, they showed that year-over-year changes in dollar volume and pricing seem to have turned a corner, or, more specifically, two graphs. Each showed a rapid ascension from the pandemic's beginning into and through 2021. Between the last quarter of 2021 and the first of 2022, a similar downward plunge started, with volume falling to 50% drops and pricing to -10% price growth. Both the graphs, though, show a turn upward again in the first or second quarter of 2023. Both volume and price were still negative year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024 but were zero by Q2. That was an end to six continuous quarters of commercial property prices. If the trend line continues, Q3 should see both volume and pricing move back into positive year-over-year growth. However, there were complications because data is rarely tidy. Total transaction volume was boosted in Q2 by Blackstone taking AIR Communities private. Without that, the volume would have been down by 13% year over year. Similarly, individual asset sales were down 9% year over year in Q2, with the total having been boosted by that Blackstone transaction. "This pace is much improved from the 57% YOY pace of decline set in the second quarter of 2023, but it is still a decline," they wrote. Keeping an upward trajectory will be difficult, easily sleeping into the negative again if there isn't either broader growth or additional support from megadeals.

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Cushman & Wakefield's Senior Economist James Bohnaker recently spoke to The Business of Fashion, sharing his expertise about the remarkable resurgence of in-person shopping. Despite challenges like high interest rates and inflation, retail sales are thriving. However, the retail real estate market faces a significant issue: finding available space for new stores. Learn more about the dynamics shaping today's retail real estate market in the full article: https://cushwk.co/3WPBUvz

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The multifamily market sector is evolving rapidly, with new challenges and opportunities shaping every project. In our latest blog, Andy Ayers, RLG’s Chief Operating Officer, shares insights from his 20+ years of experience, dives into key trends, and unpacks the complexities of projects like the Monarch residential tower in Frisco. Read Andy's insights here: https://lnkd.in/gqK3QhuG Check out our last post about the Monarch!

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📉 Beyond the Building Boom: Upcoming Shifts in Multifamily Supply While the multifamily sector continues to see elevated levels of unit deliveries in 2024, a deeper look reveals a significant reduction in new unit deliveries projected for 2025. Explore our latest analysis, which highlights key markets poised for the largest declines, indicating a shift in the supply-demand dynamic. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e2G6ic4V #MultifamilyHousing #MarketAnalysis

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🏙️ Investors are leaning towards amenity-lite urban Build-for-Rent schemes with mid-market rents, according to Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 2024 report, highlighting strong interest in these cost-effective options. Read more about it here: https://bit.ly/3YQeveY #buildforrent #realestatetrends #urbanliving #investmentopportunity #bfr

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Navigating the industrial real estate market has been challenging recently, with only 30% of potential leases converting into signed agreements per this report. The trend stems from economic uncertainties and evolving logistics strategies, leading many companies to defer decisions and ultimately accumulate pent-up demand. Recently, there’s a positive shift on the horizon. As the economic landscape stabilizes, organizations are resuming their industrial space searches with renewed confidence. This resurgence is expected to alleviate the backlog of deferred decisions, fostering a more dynamic, timely and responsive market. For those of us in the industry, it’s crucial to stay adaptable and proactive as a trusted advisor. By understanding these market dynamics and anticipating client needs, we can better navigate the complexities of the market and capitalize on emerging opportunities. https://lnkd.in/gM8UmQQ8

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Stanger reaffirmed its overweight rating for BREIT, highlighting the $23 billion returned to shareholders and the strong performance of its diversified real estate portfolio. Read the full article on SQX Alts! #REIT #alternativeinvestments #finance

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