Since the beginning of the year, various players in CRE have been predicting the approach of a market bottom to the fall that began in 2022. MSCI's Capital Trends report for the second quarter of 2024 adds another voice with a more definitive tone. The firm said that the slide in deal volume and pricing "came to an end in the second quarter." Using data from the RCA CPPI National All-Property Index, they showed that year-over-year changes in dollar volume and pricing seem to have turned a corner, or, more specifically, two graphs. Each showed a rapid ascension from the pandemic's beginning into and through 2021. Between the last quarter of 2021 and the first of 2022, a similar downward plunge started, with volume falling to 50% drops and pricing to -10% price growth. Both the graphs, though, show a turn upward again in the first or second quarter of 2023. Both volume and price were still negative year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024 but were zero by Q2. That was an end to six continuous quarters of commercial property prices. If the trend line continues, Q3 should see both volume and pricing move back into positive year-over-year growth. However, there were complications because data is rarely tidy. Total transaction volume was boosted in Q2 by Blackstone taking AIR Communities private. Without that, the volume would have been down by 13% year over year. Similarly, individual asset sales were down 9% year over year in Q2, with the total having been boosted by that Blackstone transaction. "This pace is much improved from the 57% YOY pace of decline set in the second quarter of 2023, but it is still a decline," they wrote. Keeping an upward trajectory will be difficult, easily sleeping into the negative again if there isn't either broader growth or additional support from megadeals.
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MSCI Inc.'s Trends report shows that the slide in deal volume and pricing "came to an end in the second quarter." Using data from the RCA CPPI National All-Property Index, it shows year-over-year changes in dollar volume and pricing seem to have turned a corner. Read more from GlobeSt.com: https://lnkd.in/gNymAnN7
Volume and Pricing May Have Hit Bottom in Q2
globest.com
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MAD Partnership portfolio performance (as of 31st Jul 2024) ▶ +34.5% YTD [vs. S&P 500 Index +16.4%, MSCI World Index +13.7%] Commentary: The US market corrected in July, which was not surprising given its strong performance in the past couple of months. As we entered August, the markets were spooked by a weak jobs report and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s inaction over interest rates. From my experience, regulatory actions oftentimes lag market events and data, so the Fed’s inaction last week was perhaps no surprise. Wall Street is now forecasting a near-100% probability of a rate cut in September. The only uncertainty seems to be the magnitude of the cut. The market may continue to be volatile over the next few weeks as concerns over the economy come to the boil. We will look to add to our higher conviction positions opportunistically. Longer term, we remain bullish on the US market as we see more tailwinds than headwinds. — I hope you enjoyed this. Follow me at Cedric Ho for more sharing about life, money and investing. Visit my website to find out how I help people like you grow their wealth. (31 Jul year-to-date return 34.5%; SRS money accepted)
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Global equity markets were relatively anemic for the week despite wrapping one of the most productive quarters since the beginning of the pandemic. Quarterly gains were largely driven by optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks and expectations that monetary policy will soon be relaxed. Read the latest market news from Scotia Wealth Management - it’s on our website now. https://lnkd.in/eAqN-ebP #halifax #novascotia #investing
Fed comments drive rate speculation
christianphilpadvisorygroup.com
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# Only Put Off Until Tomorrow What You Are Willing to Die Having Left Undone ## Maintaining a Bullish Outlook on Equifax Stock: Wall Street Analysts Speak \*Summary:\* Despite Equifax underperforming in the past year compared to the broader market, Wall Street analysts display unwavering optimism regarding the stock's future. 📈💼🔍 Equifax, a renowned credit reporting agency, has faced its fair share of challenges lately. However, industry experts firmly believe that this setback won't hinder the company's potential for growth and success. Despite recent obstacles, Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Equifax stock, expressing confidence in its prospects going forward. With the broader market as a measuring yardstick, it's been evident that Equifax hasn't met expectations in the previous year. Yet, this hasn't deterred these financial experts from recognizing the hidden potential within the stock. Demonstrating unwavering faith, they see Equifax overcoming current hurdles and capitalizing on promising opportunities that lie ahead. Investors are now presented with a unique chance to capitalize on Equifax's potential resurgence. By seizing this opportunity, individuals can actively participate in the growth of an undervalued stock, further diversifying their investment portfolios and potentially reaping substantial rewards in the future. Don't let the Fear of Missing Out \(FOMO\) hold you back! Capitalize on this optimistic sentiment surrounding Equifax stock and grow your Health Savings Account \(HSA\) through astute investing. 🌱💰💪 #h1 #hsa #investing #healthcare #health #family #wellness
Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Equifax Stock?
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Weekly Market Summary for the week of 07.19.2024: Investor Sentiment Takes Hold on Small and Value Factors https://lnkd.in/gF7WJxj9 #AmericanTrustCustody #WeeklySummary
Investor Sentiment Takes Hold on Small and Value Factors - American Trust Custody
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🏢 Laurel Durkay, CFA #REIT Sector Outlook Highlights on CNBC 🚀📈 Laurel Durkay, Morgan Stanley's head of global listed real assets, appeared on CNBC's "The Exchange" with Dominic Chu yesterday and here are the key takeaways from her outlook. 📊 Interest Rate Sensitivity: * REITs are currently trading based on interest rate sensitivity. * Despite this, fundamentals in various sectors remain "very strong." 💡 Adding Alpha with Fundamentals: * Acknowledges the uncontrollable nature of interest rates. * Emphasizes that focusing on fundamentals can add alpha to the investment strategy. 🌐 Exciting Opportunities: * Identifies exciting opportunities in sectors like data centers, cell towers, health care, and self-storage. * Highlights secular real estate areas driven by demand. 🌐 Top Pick: Digital Realty (Ticker: DLR): * Laurel's top pick in the current market landscape. 🏠 Senior Housing Demand: * Senior housing sector showing significant signs of demand. ⚖️ Demand vs. Supply in Senior Housing: * Points out the growing demand in senior housing with new supply struggling to keep up. 🚧 Construction Outlook: * Anticipates low construction starts in the near term. * Foresees an explosive surge in demand around 2027. 🌟 Health Care Top Picks: * Highlights top picks in health care with Welltower™ Inc. (NYSE:WELL) and CareTrust REIT (Ticker: CTRE). https://lnkd.in/gvk_SAAE
Morgan Stanley's Laurel Durkay talks top opportunities in REITs
cnbc.com
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🚨INTRADAY ALERT: Buy the fear. High probability of a +4% to 5% 5 day equity rally post-FOMC (Wed), Led by small-caps. 👀 The wariness of equities into this Wed July FOMC meeting is worse than market reactions in the past year. Read the full report from Thomas (Tom) Lee, only at FS Insight! 🔥☑️ https://lnkd.in/e83b3Sy2 #summerofsmallcaps #SmallCapsSummer
INTRADAY ALERT: Buy the fear. High probability of a +4% to 5% 5 day equity rally post-FOMC (Wed), Led by small-caps.
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It’s been a story of strength for markets so far this year, fueled by an economy that has remained robust in the face of a host of challenges. As we welcome the start to summer, #TopMarketTakeaways searches for the market’s secret to success and contemplates what could come next. http://spr.ly/6048e8gIs
100 trading days in: Why 2024 is different | J.P. Morgan Private Bank Latin America
privatebank.jpmorgan.com
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The Week In The Markets - Market rebound: The Dow was back above 40,000, the S&P 500 over 5,500 by Thursday. -Economic signals: July inflation data hinted at a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, but retail sales were up by a very strong 1%. -Investor dilemma: positive data eased recession fears, but growth and rate cut expectations were conflicted. See what it all means in The Week In The Markets. https://lnkd.in/gfH6Jr5X
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