Andrew Beer

The #cta world is evolving! Meb Faber talks to Douglas Greenig about Florin Court’s #hedgefund. Here is a strategy that truly is differentiated and delivers a much higher Sharpe ratio than the overall managed futures space. However, it is capacity constrained, accessible only the accredited investors, and expensive for allocators with fee constraints. At the other end of the spectrum, the SG CTA Investable Index is designed to provide efficient, accessible “beta-like” exposure to the space. Screams “core-satellite”, no? https://lnkd.in/e35cW7jG

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=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

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Almost time for voting to start, but we are likely to waiting some time for a result. Many possible combinations of President/House/Senate outcomes. Get ahead of speculation and check out our analysis of 5 President/Congress scenarios and their impact on the economy and financial markets.

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I would like to discuss the March 22 Nikkei article, "One Year to Go Until the Expiration of TSE Transitional Measures: 9% of Companies Fail to Meet Listing Standards, Many Have Liquidity Challenges."

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An excellent take from The FT on NFP yearly revisions post the ZH story. This obviously caused front running sellers of USD. I made it free to the first 10 people as a FREE gift. BAML nicely added: Are these figures final? No. "This is a preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision. The actual revision might be different, based on revisions to the QCEW data. Last year’s preliminary estimate was -306k, but the final revision was just -266k." What does this mean for the unemployment rate? Nothing. "The unemployment rate is calculated from the household survey. The QCEW impacts the establishment survey. What are the broader labor market implications? Even after these large downward revisions, the labor market looks to have been on solid footing last year and in 1Q 2024. That is consistent with the resilience in consumer spending." By contrast, employment growth in the household survey looks too weak relative to the rest of the macro data (54k on average from April 2023 to March 2024). That said, the revisions do help close the gap between the two surveys. My 3 key considerations: 1. USD sold on the ZH story rumour and bought the "fact" but we need the doves to come out AKA Dec 2023 for EURUSD to crack 1.1276 which is the 50% fib on the DAILY CHART. 2. Forget the yearly revisions and focus on lead indicators like LMCI (Kansas City FED) which looks smelly to say the least. NAIRU getting hit on my radar too. 3. Labor Costs nose diving which should drag Core PCE lower (dare I say it below 2% Happy Friday!

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WHY THE CONSENSUS ON GOVERNMENT BONDS IS WRONG It is very tedious when ( virtually ) every commentator when asked about Goverment Bonds just repeats the same old tired narrative about strong US economy ( debatable & becoming more so ) and "sticky" inflation ( transitory ?) Since hitting it's major low in October 2023 the Ultra Long UK Gilt rose 26% in 9 weeks ( in Elliott Wave parlance a clear impulse wave ).It then embarked on a Elliott secondary reaction which saw it lose about 16% from the December high traced out over 4 months.ie it took twice as long to give up about 2/3 of the gain.This is a strong signal that the primary trend of the market is up.On the assumption that this secondary reaction is now over it will be replaced by another impulse wave ie a sharp upward move on a par with the Oct-Dec 2023 but probably bigger - starting anytime now.So in the real world what is going to cause Gilts & Tbonds to take off given the consensus view referred to above.Well yesterday the US Treasury announced a very interesting programme involving buying back US Tbonds ( despite the record deficit ) with the obvious aim of getting the entire yield curve lower in the run up to the US election.This monkeying around with the market also involves a facility where Banks & the Fed can swap low coupon TBonds for Higher ( current ) coupon Bonds to help stave off any Bank runs by boosting the cash flow from the higher coupon Bonds enabling the Banks to offer higher deposit rates in order to deter withdrawals.None of this is priced into the market and when it is put into practice it's effect on the prices of Bonds ( especially Long Bonds ) will be explosive as the demand for long Bonds will greatly exceed the supply irrespective of whether Inflation is "sticky ". A (the ?) major component of sticky inflation has been higher Oil prices and as Oil has now gone into sharp decline so Inflation will now become less sticky.Throw in a probable recession / sharply slowing economy with the long awaited effect on the Jobs market and all the ingredients are in place. It is a strange phenoneum in markets that when a strong consensus develops it usually turns out to be wrong - This could be a classic textbook example

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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗹: 𝗟𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗘𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘚𝘦𝘱𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳'𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘱 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴: 🗳️ Investing During Election Season 🔄 Equity Market Rotation 📰 Private Debt Facts vs Fears 🦥 Less-Efficient Markets 🚲 Private Equity Market Cycles 🥈 Secondaries and the Efficient Frontier 🗾 Japanese Small Caps 🧰 The GP-Led Transaction Toolkit https://lnkd.in/gUaWq-cB

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I do not agree with everything that #Mearsheimer says, but I do think his point of view needs to be represented in our domestic debate. He is a realist and acknowledges that World Systems have a habit of making their own order as circumstances dictate. The New World Order involves a clear shift to regional spheres of influence. This *greatly benefits* Australia. Australia is in denial about this which is a Great Paradox. Why? We define our own #RegionalOrder through the Tyranny of Distance. That is what ensures our place as a mid-sized #BrokerPower in this new world. Sadly, the quality of the contemporary Australian Intellectual is greatly diminished to the point of near extinction. Australia has plenty to offer, in shaping this new order to the benefit of ourselves and this region. We need to embrace that opportunity and stop sucking up to the U.S.A. That nation cannot run itself, much less this world. It is one powerful mess on ice.

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The US presidential election is less than five months away. What are the implications of the candidates' policy proposals? How will the outcome of congressional races impact the legislative agenda in 2025? And what does it all mean for your investments? You can find out the answers to these questions and more in the below UBS #ElectionWatch 2024 report which covers the current state of the U.S. Presidential race as well as a scenario analysis including information on what we can expect going forward.

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China’s general government deficits look a bit terrifying, but today’s fiscal measures are probably the most encouraging parts of the stimulus “blitz”, as they try to address consumption/structural issues. China’s fiscal dominance might be a future risk, but right now deficit financing should not an issue.

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With the big twists and turns in the US election race, it is worth a listen to this podcast with Ambassador Bianchi on key developments, things to watch out for and the key battle ground policies. More to come on this in the coming weeks!

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United States: Donald Trump Wins and Will Return to the White House, from Jimmy Jean, CFA, Francis Généreux and I https://lnkd.in/gZReAkue The election of Donald Trump for a second term as President is likely to bring changes to our economic and financial outlook. However, it remains to be seen how far he can go with the measures he has proposed during the election campaign. Positive economic momentum is plausible in the short term. In the longer term, sharp increases in tariffs and a drop in the number of immigrants could be damaging to economic growth. Combined with further tax cuts and larger deficits, these measures could also fuel inflation and lead to higher interest rates than currently expected. However, the Federal Reserve is not expected to take these new developments into account at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. A 25-basis point cut is still expected.

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Your Next Trade Ep67 "End of the Month BANG" In this episode of "Your Next Trade", I cover recent developments like: Options impact, copper weakness, AAPL catalyst, LULU expectations... https://lnkd.in/eiwyA2Xm #stocks #bonds #currencies #commodities #trading

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Blue Owl Capital is acquiring Atalaya Capital Management, an alternative credit manager, for $450 million. This strategic move will enhance Blue Owl's credit and asset-based finance capabilities, adding over $10 billion in assets under management. Atalaya focuses on asset-based credit investments across various sectors and manages over $10 billion in assets. Post-acquisition, most of Atalaya’s 115 employees, including founder Ivan Zinn, will join Blue Owl. Zinn will lead the alternative credit segment under Craig Packer. The deal includes $350 million in Blue Owl equity and $100 million in cash, with an additional potential earnout of up to $350 million in equity, contingent on future revenue targets. This acquisition reflects a growing trend of consolidation in the alternative credit space. Blue Owl's expansion into asset-based finance signifies increasing demand for versatile and specialised credit offerings.

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Paper: "Systematic tail risk [of assets]... proxied by a generalized tail dependence coefficient... is compensated with an economically sizeable and statistically significant premium." https://lnkd.in/e4CKna3Y

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Is the U.S. Economy Stronger Than We Think? At Yale's recent CEO Caucus, 84% of top CEOs expressed optimism, predicting a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Surprisingly, 81% were taken aback by the economy’s resilience, despite widespread pessimism in public polls. With inflation dropping and unemployment at historic lows, real wages are growing, and GDP surpassed expectations. CEOs agree: the economy is outperforming the gloomy forecasts. What’s your take on that? Source: https://bit.ly/47Sds0i

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With the Sprott Uranium Trust's discount to NAV at a near YTD high, notable events this past month included: 1) The Department of Energy's $3.40B RFP for low-enriched #uranium . 2) Renewed M&A in the Athabasca Basin via Paladin Energy's takeout bid for Fission Uranium (fair bid, we don't envision any competing bids). Spot uranium ended the month of June -4.5%, settling at $85.50 per lb (Numerco). **Not investment advice, just opinion, observation & analysis. Pls note the disclaimer** https://lnkd.in/gYAn38_d #equityresearch #investmentbanking #nuclear #greentransition #zerocarbon #economics #mining

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