Aleksandr Gevorkyan

I am very grateful to Thomas Furse for the review article of my Edinburgh University Press book The President's Kill List and of Hugh Wilford's book The CIA: An Imperial History. This in Intelligence and National Security Journal. 'Trenta’s The President’s Kill List provides the first history of how successive presidential administrations have employed assassination, which the state defined by ‘matter of shades of grey than of unequivocal black-and white decision’...As a result, the CIA in this book is a violent organization plotting the downfall of adversaries while constantly battling democratic oversight. He is less sympathetic to the CIA’s idealism. The two texts complement each other. Wilford is the fire and Trenta is the gasoline. Together, they reveal the ideological conflict within the American imperium: it espouses anti-imperialism while being violently imperialist...' 'A cynic might say that the agency was only violent and imperialist, but that would not be the entire story, its agents had an authentic idealism to better humanity. Wilford’s book is good for this reason. Trenta’s book writes a history of the CIA as an agency that operated away from or bent legal and constitutional boundaries; and he is entirely accurate here. Read together, these books provide a way to understand how the CIA negotiated its survival in the ruckus of democratic politics at home and, won the Cold War abroad.' My only quibble is that the review gives the impression that I think many of the leaders targeted were "irrational" or impossible to deal with, whereas I make the argument that this was often used as a pretext by US officials. https://lnkd.in/eRsmkgGQ

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Earlier today, the FBI reported Q1 2024 crime numbers showing double-digit declines across all crime categories. These are provisional numbers and will be adjusted, but the trajectory is consistent with industry and academic reports and entirely in the right direction. Some thoughts here on why crime, violence, and victimization are declining so rapidly: https://lnkd.in/ezKE_QEu

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As elections unfold around the world it is essential to understand and share how democracies' defenders, and solutions oriented leaders can and do win elections, even in heartland regions that often respond to resentment-driven, nationalist leaders. That is why our new report "Democracy Can Win at the Ballot Box" is essential reading. It culls the insights from effective pro-democracy campaigners in the US, UK and Europe. It's the latest from our Heartlands Transformation Initiative, and just out from Jefferson Educational Society & Eisenhower Institute. #Democracy #elections #populism

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Our latest research explores how the United States can adapt its foreign policy in an evolving multipolar world. We examine the implications of the upcoming US election, specifically focusing on the foreign policy approaches proposed by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump toward key issues including Iran, the Ukraine conflict, and Israel.

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Are you concerned about digital authoritarianism? Experts convened by National Endowment for Democracy's International Forum for Democratic Studies, the Global Digital Policy Incubator and the Hoover Institution, Stanford University explored how authoritarian regimes use tech for social control. One prominent example of the spread of digital authoritarianism is Venezuela's "homeland" system, built with tech from Chinese vendor ZTE. This system integrates personal data, allowing the ruling party to monitor citizens and control access to services. Despite increasing data collection, authoritarian regimes don't always effectively use the information. Practical obstacles like limited technical capacity, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and people's resistance can hinder these systems. Emerging technologies like VR and AR headsets present new avenues for surveillance. These devices collect body-based data, including eye movements, potentially revealing personal attitudes, medical information, and even truthfulness. What can be done? Democracies must advocate for a rights-respecting vision of tech development, engage in setting technical standards, and support initiatives that counter surveillance and promote digital rights. #DigitalAuthoritarianism #SurveillanceState https://lnkd.in/eiD47PCW

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Earlier this year, I highlighted the significance of 2024 for democracy and trust in democratic institutions worldwide. With the year progressing, I wanted to assess our current standing. The discourse on technology's role in polarization and elections persists, but the feared catastrophic scenarios have not materialized. At a recent Harvard Kennedy School event, Stanford Law's Nathaniel Persily emphasized discerning perception from reality, noting that "AI panic is itself a democracy problem." We've seen peaceful elections across the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia, with traditional voting methods remaining predominant and election results largely accepted. Democracy is holding. https://lnkd.in/eU6ejEiv

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Chinese investments have reached $3.85bn, compared to Russia’s $1.85bn. Other countries have also played roles in Tajikistan’s economic development, with Kazakhstan contributing $1.21bn, the United States $808mn, and the United Kingdom $805mn. #China #Tajikistan #Investment https://lnkd.in/dJ37Yuh6

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The second part of my take on Turkey's policy in the Fertile Crescent for The Washington Institute For Near East Policy:

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My latest piece with International Policy Digest on Iran's recent attempts to jumpstart economic relations with Africa.

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Seeing the list of the new 13 “partner countries” for #BRICS … Very clear hedging signals … several U.S. allies and key partners (esp. in Indo-Pacific) on this list. Keeping options open and part of ongoing bargaining both with DC and Beijing … also important for Russia’s #G0_SR strategy.

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What will peace in Ukraine look like? The first major foreign policy task for the Trump team will be delivering realistic proposals for ending the conflict. In this new commentary, CSIS Futures Lab analyzes empirical data on modern conflict and war termination theories to define the key considerations Trump and his team must consider as they work with partners in Kyiv and Europe to negotiate from a position of strength. #ukraine #peace #Trump #strategy #geopolitics https://lnkd.in/etPepRDG

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Anti-democratic forces often co-opt those with vast wealth. That is starting to happen in America, creating a two-tiered economy of those tight with politicians and those trying to run real businesses. One casualty will be press freedom. My analysis:

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Antonio Guterres once again calls for reform of the global financial architecture, including MDB reform with reference to utilizing "callable capital" and for flexibility to be injected into the private creditor relationship. On the same day that Ghana is restricted from restructuring by the IMF, with Ghana already in default. This is precisely why understanding the underlying dynamics of the credit rating agencies is all important now - they sit at the heart of everything. MDBs need to scale up? CRAs have to approve. Private creditors need to be more flexible? CRAs have to approve or get out of the way. Vulnerable countries need to be able to restructure quickly and effectively? CRAs need to approve. It is the same story time and time again. https://lnkd.in/e5Rb4CTq The Credit Rating Research Initiative #creditratings #globalfinancialarchitecture #Ghana

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Alireza Jafarzadeh, NewsMax TV, May 25, 2024: The death of Ebrahim Raisi, the mass murderer, has very serious repercussions, and I want to highlight three of them. First, the death of Raisi is a strategic blow to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the entirety of this regime because Raisi was groomed by Khamenei for years, especially because of the direct role of Ebrahim Raisi in the well-documented 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners in Iran that the majority of the victims and the target were the main Iranian opposition movement, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, the MEK, which is the same movement that expose all the major nuclear sites of Iran and now acts as the engine for change in Iran. Actually, the children and the grandchildren of those who were murdered in 1988 are the ones who are in the streets protesting now. Second, Raisi's death has thrown the regime off balance and created a set of motions in the regime that has heightened the infighting within the regime because Khamenei relied heavily on Raisi to keep its balance, and it has already weakened the regime. Third, this is a huge opportunity for the people of Iran, for the organized opposition, and for those who have been seeking change in Iran to see Raisi--whose mission was to prevent the uprisings and the protests--gone. People have realized that this regime is not 10 feet tall despite all the threats that it is making around the world, i.e., the barrage of missiles they are firing. They can't even run their own helicopter and keep their own president alive. So, that's an opportunity for regime change in Iran. And I hope everyone around the capitals of the world understands this stark reality in the country.

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It is vital that democracies pull together as we did after WW II to strengthen our economies and democracies at home, while enhancing our collaborative economic engagements abroad. Read my latest including recommendations for collective action via OECD - OCDE. Sharing all we are learning in our Eisenhower Institute, Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service, German Foreign Office, University Alliance Ruhr, The University of Manchester, Jefferson Educational Society, European Commission heartlands transformation network

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The election of Donald Trump carries profound implications for multilateral organizations and development banks, affecting global development finance, climate efforts, and international cooperation. Trump’s presidency suggests a shift toward isolationism and protectionism. For MDBs this could mean adjusting strategies to a new, but quite known, geopolitical landscape. Trump’s return may strain U.S. relationships with key multilateral bodies like the World Trade Organization and the United Nations. His previous administration's skepticism toward these institutions suggests a renewed prioritization of national interests over collaborative efforts. This could lead to U.S. isolation within international frameworks. Trump’s protectionist stance is likely to disrupt global trade. By focusing on domestic job protection and tariffs, his policies may challenge the effectiveness of multilateral economic cooperation, impacting agreements that foster global trade and economic integration. Moreover, Trump’s approach to climate change could undermine multilateral climate commitments. Withdrawal from accords like the Paris Agreement would complicate collaborative efforts and financing for climate goals, creating uncertainty around international climate initiatives. Under Trump, U.S. contributions to development banks like The World Bank may decrease, limiting resources for poverty alleviation and sustainable development in low-income regions heavily dependent on these funds. In response, MDBs may recalibrate their focus, increasingly exploring partnerships with other countries, particularly China, which has been expanding its role in development finance through the Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). MDBs focused on climate resilience, like the Inter-American Development Bank, could struggle to mobilize funds without robust U.S. support, affecting renewable energy investment in developing regions like Latin America where such initiatives are crucial. #GlobalDevelopment #MultilateralOrganizations #DevelopmentBanks #ClimateFinance #InternationalCooperation #Geopolitics #DonaldTrump

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🌍📢 I’m excited to share a milestone—my first publication! My article, "Stolen Innocence: The Forcible Displacement of Ukrainian Children and the Battle for Their Return," has been published by the International Affairs Forum (https://lnkd.in/eDEEYApp). In this piece, I delve into the legal and human rights issues surrounding the displacement of Ukrainian children during the ongoing conflict, and the efforts to bring them home. Check it out here: https://lnkd.in/egcvwwqw

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