ACLED

What conflicts will shape 2025? ACLED’s 2025 Watchlist identifies 10 crises likely to escalate, including: ◾ Ukraine’s ongoing war, with battles up 63% compared to 2023. ◾ Rising instability in the Middle East, from Iran’s faltering influence to Israel’s regional recalibrations. ◾ The Sahel’s shifting dynamics, as armed groups contest state control. These crises reflect the growing complexity of transnational conflicts. See what’s ahead in 2025: https://lnkd.in/dbXU_Vbt

#Syria: Southern Operation Room The re-emergence of the Southern Operation Room, bolstered by Druze fighters, signals a shift in Syria’s south. With control over Daraa, al-Suwayda, and Quneitra, these factions have encircled Damascus, playing a critical role in the regime’s collapse. Discover the evolving role of southern opposition groups in ACLED’s report: https://lnkd.in/ecqYfjBJ

#Ethiopia: Conflict and civilian impact in Amhara region #ACLED recorded 1,323 political violence events in Amhara region from 1 January to 29 November 2024, resulting in 5,701 reported fatalities. The ACLED Conflict Exposure tool estimates that over 7 million people were exposed to conflict in the region during the same period. Most of these events occurred in West Gojam, North Shewa, East Gojam, and North Wello zones, with West Gojam seeing the highest number of battles and violence targeting civilians events. Spikes in civilian targeting were recorded in July and October, coinciding with intensified clashes between security forces and Fano militias. Explore ACLED’s latest insights: https://lnkd.in/gUDHpSbD

🌍 Countdown to the Conflict Index & 2025 Watchlist webinar Conflict has nearly doubled over the past five years, with unprecedented levels of violence recorded in 2024. Join us on 10 January for the virtual launch of ACLED’s Conflict Index and 2025 Watchlist to uncover where conflict is most extreme and the 10 crisis areas likely to escalate. Key findings include: ◾ 25% increase in political violence incidents compared to 2023. ◾ Palestine, Myanmar, Syria, and Mexico hold the highest positions in the Index. ◾ Increasing civilian exposure to conflict and armed group fragmentation. Don’t miss this critical discussion on global conflict trends for the year ahead. Register today: https://lnkd.in/g9Xhnrqg

#Somalia: Political violence trends involving al-Shabaab ACLED recorded 1,918 political violence events involving al-Shabaab from 1 January to 29 November 2024 — a 3% decrease compared to 2023. Battle events fell by 5%, and violence targeting civilians decreased by 21%. Despite the decline, activity remains concentrated in Lower Shabelle, the epicenter of insecurity due to the surge in security forces and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) bases, frequent targets of al-Shabaab attacks. Discover more in our latest infographic: https://lnkd.in/dRASBXmV

📈 Movement around the #ACLED Conflict Index The latest update reveals stark changes in global conflict levels: ▪️ Lebanon: Now classified as ‘extreme,’ reflecting a significant rise in conflict levels compared to last year. ▪️ Libya & Peru: Worsened trends driven by rising fatalities linked to political violence. ▪️ Haiti: While events doubled compared to 2020, fatalities have decreased over the past year. ▪️ Yemen: Political violence has declined consistently since 2020 (from 10,000+ events to just 2,000 in 2024), but conflict is spreading into new areas and involving new actors around the Red Sea. Violence continues to challenge governments’ ability to control local territories, with dramatic variations in conflict types across regions. Explore the full Index to uncover where and how conflict levels shifted globally in 2024: https://lnkd.in/eM7V47cU

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Update | 10 - 16 December 2024 As the year draws to a close, violence between the IDF and Hezbollah continues to decline. Last week, #ACLED recorded 34 events —a 48% decrease compared to the week prior— all in Lebanon. Fatalities also fell by 25%, with 9 deaths reported in Lebanon. Despite the reductions, over 81,000 people in Lebanon remain affected by the ongoing conflict, highlighting the lasting impacts on civilian populations. Explore ACLED’s final data update of the year for a comprehensive look at the Israel-Hezbollah conflict: https://lnkd.in/eT6diDDw

The Sahel and Coastal West Africa: Conflict Watchlist 2025 Can the Sahel’s cycle of violence be contained in 2025? ACLED’s Watchlist highlights intensifying instability across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger: ◾ Jihadist expansion: JNIM and IS Sahel consolidate control over civilian areas and extend operations into urban centers like Bamako and Niamey. ◾ Drone warfare: Militants and state forces increasingly rely on drones for precision attacks. ◾ Regional ripple effects: Violence spreads to coastal states like Benin and Togo, threatening broader destabilization. How could these dynamics evolve? Explore the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/dr8UJWBe

Open vacancies at ACLED Interested in joining our team? ACLED is a fully remote organization with team members across more than 50 countries and territories. If you're looking to contribute to a dynamic team dedicated to providing reliable data on global conflict trends, we have exciting opportunities for you. We’re hiring for several full-time positions: 📌 Junior Data Scientist  📌 Enterprise Architect 📌 Access Officer 👉 Explore our careers page for open positions and apply today: https://lnkd.in/eXRfpNCE #RemoteWork #RemoteJob #Hiring

2024 was a year defined by extraordinary violence: conflict surged by 25%, bombings nearly doubled battles, and nearly 200,000 political violence events were recorded globally. ACLED’s Conflict Index paints a stark picture, with Palestine ranking as the most dangerous place on Earth and Ukraine remaining the deadliest conflict. In the latest edition of her newsletter, Clionadh Raleigh reflects on these findings and what they reveal about the evolving global conflict landscape. From the implications of Trump’s re-election to the challenges of long-running crises in Syria and the Sahel, the newsletter also offers insights into the dynamics that could help shape 2025. Check out her thought-provoking analysis: https://lnkd.in/eK3nntbR