The insight: Mobile shopping will account for 53% of ecommerce sales this holiday season, per Adobe, extending the lead that it first gained in 2023. That’s in line with our own forecast, which expects mcommerce’s share to grow more than two percentage points to 52.7%.

Adobe also expects mcommerce to “consistently” surpass sales via desktops in 2025 even in months beyond the holiday season, as shoppers become more habituated to making purchases from their phones.

Zoom out: Mcommerce spending has already broken records this year: Shoppers spent $280.4 billion in the first seven months of 2024—a 10.2% increase year over year (YoY), accounting for 47.7% of total online sales. Mobile’s share steadily increased throughout the year, per Adobe’s analysis, rising from 46.7% in January to 49.3% in July.

• That’s partly due to the large number of promotional events held this year, as retailers try to convince reluctant consumers to open their wallets. As during the holiday season, mobile on average accounted for the majority of sales during major events—including Prime Day, Fourth of July, and Memorial Day—as shoppers looked to snag deals quickly.
• Categories with the highest mobile penetration include personal care (77%), groceries (68.2%), and apparel (60.8%), which Adobe Digital Insights lead analyst Vivek Pandya attributed to the fact that “consumers have embraced mobile shopping for purchases that are more frequent and lower in price.”
• Basket sizes on mobile are on average 32% smaller than on desktops—a sign that when it comes to larger purchases, shoppers prefer the higher quality experience on the latter, and perhaps the ability to research their buys more thoroughly.

Our take: We expect mcommerce holiday sales to grow faster than overall ecommerce this year, at 13.4% YoY to the latter’s 9.5% rise. As mobile’s share of online sales grows, retailers will have to ensure they can offer shoppers a convenient and frictionless experience both in-app and in the mobile browser—or else risk losing out to the retailers that do.

Go further: Check out our US Holiday Shopping Report, and our most recent US Mcommerce Report.