Why Net Zero Is Highly Unlikely-Part I
1. It's crucial to recognize that more than 60% of electricity generation worldwide still relies heavily on fossil fuels. In this context, the 'Energy transition' is not a sprint but a marathon projected to extend over 75 to 100 years.
2. Let's fully comprehend the enormity of the task at hand. We are confronted with the monumental challenge of replacing four terawatts [trillion watts] of electricity generation capacity, encompassing large coal and gas-fired plants, and transitioning this to non-carbon sources globally. To provide context, the current US electricity generating capacity is 1.27 Terawatts [trillion watts]. Replacing this much power will likely take 50 years, as it is 3.14X of the current
US electricity generating capacity.
3. Let's consider the intricacy of the challenges. The path to achieving net zero will necessitate the replacement of 1.5 billion combustion engines [gas and diesel] and the conversion of agricultural machinery [50 million tractors and 100 million irrigation pumps] to electric or nonfossil fuels. It also means finding new sources of heat, hot air, and hot water used in various industrial processes [from iron smelting to cement to glass making to chemical synthesis and food preservation, which now consume 30% of all the final uses of fossil fuels—gas furnaces.
4. This means replacing over 500 million natural gas furnaces currently heating homes and industrial, institutional, and commercial places with heat pumps and other heat sources.
5. Fleets. This means new ways to power 120,000 merchant fleet vessels (bulk carriers of ores, cement, fertilizers, wood, and grain) and container ships—most of these run on heavy fuel oil or diesel. Also, 25,000 active jetliners would need a new source of fuel.
6. Let's be realistic about the timeline. This task cannot be accomplished in the next 25 years. Furthermore, the world has yet to reach peak global consumption of fossil fuels, and when it does, it will not result in a sudden drop in fossil fuel use. By the end of 2022, only 2% of passenger vehicles were EVs [about 40 million globally].
7. Estimates show that 2.2 billion passenger vehicles will need batteries or other forms of energy by 2050. Fleets of ships and jets will likely be among the most challenging problems. Replacing 1.35 billion diesel and gas cars will require massive amounts of copper, and reaching those mining levels or using other materials is a great challenge.
8. My sources are Robert Bryce, a substack newsletter, and Vaclav Smil. Vaclav Smil recently published his report, "Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Net Zero Carbon is a Highly Unlikely Outcome."