Oliver Guy

As of 8th October 2024, the UK energy markets have started the day with notable fluctuations in both gas and power prices, driven by supply constraints and shifting weather conditions. In the gas market, the NBP Day-Ahead price climbed to 100.00 p/therm, reflecting a 2.20 p/therm increase from the previous session. This rise comes amid reduced gas flows from Norway due to ongoing unplanned maintenance at the Asgard field and an extended outage at Troll, impacting total exit flows. Despite this, exports from Norway to the UK via the Langeled pipeline have increased, supporting the UK system, which opened 8 mcm/day long this morning. LNG send-out has decreased to 11 mcm/day, with three new cargoes expected to arrive in the UK over the next three weeks. UK storage injections continue, and pan-European storage remains robust at 94.56%, though minor withdrawals are being observed in some countries. On the power side, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price rose to £89.09/MWh, up by £12.85/MWh compared to the previous session, while the peak load price surged to £94.14/MWh. This price spike is largely due to expected cooler temperatures from tomorrow, which will drive up heating demand through the middle of the month. Wind output remains strong and is forecasted to stay above seasonal norms for the next two days before stabilising at average levels. Nuclear outages continue to play a significant role, with several key plants still offline or under maintenance, further tightening supply. Looking at other energy commodities, Brent crude oil is trading at $80.93/bbl, a $2.88 increase from the previous settlement, driven by a combination of OPEC+ cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks. Coal prices for ARA CIF Cal Y+1 settled at $127.25/tonne, slightly down by $0.54/tonne. In the carbon market, the EU ETS Dec-24 contract fell to €61.76/tonne, the lowest level in six months, while the UK ETS Dec-24 contract dropped to £35.29/tonne. These declines come amid lower industrial activity and cooler weather across the continent. In currency markets, the GBP/EUR exchange rate dipped slightly to 1.1916, while GBP/USD fell to 1.3083, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. As colder weather sets in and supply challenges persist, the UK energy markets are likely to remain volatile. Keep an eye on gas imports, LNG arrivals, and nuclear availability, as these will be key factors influencing prices in the coming days.

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A quick Friday summary from Zeigo's Energy Markets Team... UK Power prices have levelled off over the week. Calendar 2025 UK power is around £88/MWh (+£0/MWh to last week) but ‘26 and ’27 are around £77/MWh (+£0/MWh to last week). UK CPPA prices are around £70/MWh to £85/MWh (CPI indexed) with good project availability meaning there are still opportunities for corporates to go to market for a CPPA. The European energy markets remain flat as well, and front-year German power contract remain flat, trading around €97.5/MWh. CPPA prices for larger volumes in Germany are around €65/MWh to €85/MWh. UK CPPA activity continues with PPAs announced in the market by Tesco and University of Manchester amongst others. Some details are emerging about possible energy policies from Labour and the Conservatives for the election – they are a trifle uninspiring and include... On Oil & Gas there will be a Windfall Tax (until 2029 Cons, possibly 2030 Lab) with Labour upping it to 38%. Whilst Labour is “supportive” of Nuclear they have no set targets whereas the Conservatives are aiming for 24GW by 2050. Both parties will target more Offshore wind, 50GW by 2030 by the conservatives and 5GW more from Labour. The conservatives are targeting 20GW more Solar than Labour (Cons 70GW by 2035), but Labour have an onshore wind target of 35GW (Cons have nothing set) giving a higher target for Labour by 2030 overall. 

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End-of-Day UK Energy Market Report - 20th August 2024 As we wrap up the trading day, here’s a detailed look at how the UK energy markets have performed: UK Power Prices saw a modest decline today, with front-month contracts closing at £79.75, down by 1.36%. This movement came as the market reacted to slight revisions in the Nordic maintenance schedule, which eased some of the pressure on supply expectations. Natural Gas (NBP) experienced a more significant drop, with front-month prices falling by 4.08% to 91.39p. The decrease reflects both market adjustments and revised forecasts that suggest a more balanced supply-demand outlook in the near term. In the Carbon Markets, we observed an uptick. December 2024 EU Allowances (EUAs) increased by 1.09%, closing at €73.31. Similarly, UK Allowances (UKAs) finished the day up 0.59%, settling at £41.15. These movements indicate ongoing confidence in the carbon markets as regulatory pressures and demand for compliance instruments remain strong. Finally, Brent Crude ended the day on a weaker note, dropping 2.74% to $77.50. This decline was largely influenced by broader market concerns and adjustments in global supply expectations. As these trends continue to unfold, it's crucial to stay informed and agile. Our team at Catalyst is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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Is delivering the energy transition the hottest topic in utilities right now?🔥 Ben Wilson, Chief Strategy & External Affairs Officer, National Grid is live on Green Stage giving his keynote 'Delivering the energy transition: a view from National Grid’. Join him now to discover what the road to Net Zero holds. #FoUSummit24 #energy #utilites #NetZero #energytransition  

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🚨 Solar Energy UK calls for 50GW of solar and 30GW of zero-carbon energy storage by 2030! 🚨 In their new manifesto, they urge the next government to publish a roadmap within 100 days to achieve this ambitious target. With current capacity at 20GW solar and 8GW storage, these goals align with the UK's 2035 target of 70GW solar. Overcoming planning inconsistencies and boosting investment are crucial factors. Utility-scale developments for solar and battery storage offer opportunities which the government could support, particularly via the creation of a national target for the technology. Solar Energy UK CEO Chris Hewett emphasised the need to set an energy storage target to facilitate new renewable energy generation technologies. The UK energy industry has entered a period of huge growth with ambitious targets, meaning there will be opportunities at mass for skilled labour. If you are keen to discuss Construction/Site Management opportunities on projects across Solar and Battery Storage, drop me a message! #SolarEnergy #RenewableEnergy #NetZero #GreenJobs #EnergyStorage #UKClimateAction

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29th November 2024: Today’s UK energy markets reflect mixed signals as we head into the weekend. Gas Day-Ahead (DA) prices settled at 115.35p/therm, a slight decline of 0.35p from the previous day. Power DA Base followed suit, closing at £100.05/MWh, down by £5.14. These shifts align with forecasts of above-average temperatures across the UK and Europe, reducing short-term demand. Warmer weather persists, with UK temperatures anticipated to be 3.4°C above seasonal norms into the weekend. The warmer spell is impacting demand, keeping system balance tight, with the UK opening 10 mcm/day shorter this morning. However, LNG supplies remain robust, bolstered by 12 inbound cargoes, ensuring steady replenishment despite reduced Norwegian flows due to maintenance. Norwegian exit nominations were slightly higher today at 327.5 mcm/day, although the Visund field prepares for more outages in early December. The power market reflected varied influences. Near-curve baseload prices softened, while further-out contracts saw marginal gains as traders weigh the risk of a colder Q1-25. Wind generation was subdued today, compounded by lower nuclear output, which has nudged gas-fired generation higher. On the broader energy front, Brent crude futures saw a modest rise, settling at $73.28/bbl, up $0.45, while carbon markets edged down with EU Allowances (EUAs) trading at €67.63/tonne, a decrease of €0.84. Currency movements remained stable, with £1.2015 against the euro and £1.2687 to the dollar. The outlook for next week hinges on weather and demand signals. While warmer temperatures may limit immediate heating needs, traders remain cautious about geopolitical factors and LNG competition, especially from Asia, which could drive European prices in the months ahead. What are your thoughts on today’s energy landscape? Let's connect in the comments.

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Watch our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This week we highlight the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Watch our analysis below for more information! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz | Julian Hernandez | Alison Bierlaire | Edward Bilton | Ian Muir | lukas walsh | Kaspar Strugar | Amelia Santerre

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Watch our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This week we highlight the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Watch our analysis below for more information! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz | Julian Hernandez | Alison Bierlaire | Edward Bilton | Ian Muir | lukas walsh | Kaspar Strugar | Amelia Santerre

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End of Day Market Update September 2nd: Energy Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Market Corrections As the trading day drew to a close, energy markets presented a complex and varied landscape, reflecting a mixture of retracement, corrections, and slight gains across key sectors. The UK front-month gas market, in particular, experienced a noticeable sell-off, likely driven by a retracement after reaching recent highs. This decline underscores a potential cooling off in market exuberance as traders reassess positions in response to evolving market dynamics. By the end of the day, the front-month UK Power contract had slipped to £79.00, marking a substantial decline of 2.71%. This drop reflects broader concerns about demand and supply imbalances in the energy market. In tandem, the National Balancing Point (NBP), which serves as a key benchmark for gas trading in the UK, also experienced a significant downturn. Prices fell by 2.97%, ending the day at 93.29p. This downward movement suggests a broader re-evaluation of gas market fundamentals, potentially influenced by factors such as fluctuating demand forecasts and the ongoing adjustments in energy supply chains. Conversely, the carbon market offered a different narrative, with the December 2024 European Union Allowances (EUA) posting a modest gain. The EUA's price edged up by 0.18% to close at €70.43, reflecting continued interest in carbon trading as market participants anticipate future regulatory impacts and the ongoing shift towards more sustainable energy practices. However, the UK Allowances (UKA) market diverged from this trend, with prices falling by 1.5% to settle at £42.66. This decline may indicate regional variations in carbon market dynamics or differing expectations regarding carbon pricing mechanisms within the UK context. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, maintained relative stability throughout the trading session. After slight fluctuations, Brent crude closed the day with a marginal loss of 0.04%, bringing the price to $76.90. This stability suggests that the oil market is currently in a holding pattern, with traders awaiting clearer signals from global economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Overall, today’s market activity paints a picture of a market in flux, with energy prices adjusting in response to a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory factors. The divergent trends across different sectors—gas, power, carbon, and oil—highlight the importance of a nuanced approach to market analysis as participants navigate these challenging and unpredictable conditions. As these trends continue to evolve, market watchers will be keenly observing for signs of further corrections or potential rebounds in the days ahead.

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Today 21st October 2024 the UK energy markets experienced notable shifts as gas and power prices edged higher today. Day-ahead gas rose to 96.85 p/th, reflecting a 0.6% increase, while day-ahead power climbed 1.5% to 86.50 £/MWh. Mild temperatures and a forecast drop in wind speeds tomorrow are likely contributing to the elevated prices, as the IFA interconnector remains offline, restricting imports. Gas imports from Norway surged today with the completion of Oseberg field maintenance, increasing flows via the Langeled pipeline. However, maintenance at Troll and Kårstø, along with the Gullfaks outage, will continue to limit Norwegian gas availability through early November. This boost in supply was timely, as UK gas demand for power generation is set to increase later in the week. Power generation is currently dominated by wind, supported by storm Ashley, which brought elevated wind speeds. However, gas-fired generation has dropped to less than half of Friday’s output, reflecting the shift toward renewables. Nuclear output remains limited due to the continued unavailability of three reactors, cutting over 1.85 GW from the grid. French and Belgian imports are also low, with the IFA link not expected back online until mid-November. Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions in the Middle East, remain key market drivers. Israel's response to Iran's missile attack on October 1st could introduce further volatility. Crude oil markets have stabilised today after steep declines last week, buoyed by Saudi Aramco’s optimism regarding China’s energy demand and supportive economic measures. Looking forward, while UK energy prices are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, stable fundamentals, including strong renewable output and rising gas supplies are providing balance. The market's direction will depend on evolving weather conditions and further developments in global affairs.

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What did yesterday's Budget set out by Rt Hon Rachel Reeves mean for the UK Renewables Market? Here's my broad snapshot and some questions: 1)    Expansion of the National Wealth Fund National Wealth Fund, which is expected to consolidate over £70 billion in private sector investments in green industries like renewable energy and green hydrogen. Can the UK do with Renewables what Norway has done with its Oil & Gas industry? 2)    The budget also commits £3.9 billion for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects starting in 2025. With so much innovation to come in this sector, will companies from outside this space start to build up capability there? 3)    Additionally, there is substantial funding for green hydrogen production, which will support 11 projects across the UK (albeit just 125 MW) and is designed to complement renewable energy sources by enabling energy storage. Will this give a renewed push into green hydrogen and take investment back to where it needs to be for this technology? 4)    Finally, and this does seem to be good news: the government plans to improve the process for grid connection approvals by collaborating with the National Energy System Operator and Ofgem. This will help to accelerate the integration of renewable energy projects, which often face delays due to grid capacity constraints—something that has come up in almost every conversation I’ve had this year. How quickly can they roll this out? Overall, it is good news but I'm not sure that the vision seizes the opportunity? #CCS #GreenHydrogen #Renewables #Grid #Budget2024

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On October 30th, 2024, the UK energy market shows an interesting balance between weather effects and renewable generation forecasts. Temperatures across the country are forecasted to stay about 1.5°C above seasonal averages, likely dampening heating demand. This warmth may weigh on prompt UK gas contracts, with softer demand seen as a bearish signal. Conversely, wind generation is expected to underperform significantly, by more than 20% below seasonal norms, pushing prompt power prices upward as wind power generation dwindles for the week. In terms of gas supply and demand, the UK grid is projected to end the day 9.56 million cubic meters long. This surplus, combined with the warmer temperatures, suggests additional downward pressure on gas prices. At the same time, EU gas storage sits at an impressive 95.3% full, which could further impact near-curve National Balancing Point (NBP) prices, keeping them subdued as we head deeper into the heating season. This substantial gas storage level may serve as a buffer against extreme price volatility as winter approaches, though supply-demand shifts remain possible as colder weather eventually returns. Price updates reflect today’s conditions across gas and power markets. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price has decreased slightly to 105.96 pence per therm, down by 0.89%, while the UK Day-Ahead power price follows with a minor dip to £104.84 per MWh, down by 0.55%. Monthly and quarterly forward contracts are mixed, with November gas prices up by 0.29% at 107.22 p/th and December up by 0.62% at 108.91 p/th. On the power side, November Base power rose by 1.66% to £96.15/MWh, while December Base is slightly lower at £90.25/MWh, down by 0.28%. Carbon markets display a divergence today. The EU carbon price for December has gained 1.31%, bringing it to €67.28 per tonne, reflecting increased demand for carbon allowances as winter approaches. In contrast, UK carbon prices for December fell by 1.82%, landing at £39.16 per tonne, suggesting some relief in compliance costs for domestic emitters. In the broader commodity complex, Brent Crude for front-month delivery is down 0.42%, currently at $71.12 per barrel, while coal front-year prices see a slight uptick to $125.67 per tonne, up by 0.49%. Renewable generation challenges and warmer weather impacts are likely to define this week's trading, with lower wind output creating tighter supply for power. These dynamics may continue to keep market participants attentive to price movements as the UK energy market adjusts to shorter days and fluctuating renewable contributions. With gas storage high and temperatures moderating, the immediate-term outlook appears to offer a mix of price stability and sector-specific pressures.

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Wednesday 20th November - This morning, the UK energy market faces a mix of colder temperatures, rising demand, and fluctuating supply dynamics. Day-ahead gas prices at the NBP have softened to 114.75 p/therm, reflecting a 4.25 p/therm drop since yesterday, as markets adjust to eased supply concerns from stable Russian gas flows. UK power baseload prices followed suit, declining to £98.18/MWh. The UK gas system opened with a notable 16mcm/day oversupply, but consumption is surging as temperatures drop to over 5°C below the seasonal average. LDZ demand is forecasted at 252mcm/day, pushing gas-for-power consumption higher than the previous day. Despite steady imports from Norway, wind generation remains variable, adding further pressure on thermal plants. Six LNG cargoes, including one from the U.S. arriving at South Hook today, are expected to provide some relief in the coming weeks. Storage levels remain robust, with pan-European facilities at 90.3% capacity. UK-specific reserves are also well-stocked, though withdrawals from MRS and Rough indicate active use during this cold spell. On the power side, generation is leaning heavily on gas, with renewables contributing intermittently due to fluctuating wind speeds. Interconnector flows have been stable, supporting the grid amid rising peak demand forecasts. In global markets, Brent crude held steady at $73.31/bbl, while European carbon prices slipped slightly to €68.13/tonne. Currency movements were muted, with GBP/EUR trading at 1.1956. As we brace for what may be the coldest day of this weather pattern tomorrow, all eyes are on how supply dynamics and LNG arrivals will shape the immediate market trajectory. Stay tuned for updates as the energy sector navigates these winter challenges.

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25th November 2024 – A sharp drop in temperatures and low wind generation reshape the UK energy landscape today. Following an unseasonably warm weekend, the UK is now facing a shift as temperatures fall 3°C below seasonal norms. This significant drop is expected to increase heating demand, applying bullish pressure on prompt UK gas prices. Adding to the strain, wind power generation is forecast to remain 20% below average for the season, further supporting elevated price levels in the UK energy markets. At present, the UK gas grid is forecast to close 42.02mcm long, which might exert some bearish influence on prompt gas prices. However, the wider picture shows aggregated EU gas storage levels declining to 87% capacity, with daily withdrawals averaging 0.45%. Such a steady drawdown in storage could amplify concerns over supply tightness later in the winter, lending support to near-curve UK gas prices in the weeks ahead. In the pricing landscape, the NBP Day-Ahead gas price remains stable at 114.40 p/th (-0.06%), while UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged to £68.27/MWh, marking a remarkable 57.58% increase. This reflects the immediate impact of reduced wind power output and higher demand due to colder weather. Front-month December contracts, however, are softer: gas trades at 116.99 p/th (-3.34%), and power at £95.15/MWh (-3.73%). Further out, Q1-25 contracts for UK gas and power are trading lower, with gas at 118.73 p/th (-2.87%) and power at £100.26/MWh (-3.12%). Seasonal contracts like Summer 2025 show a similar trend, as prices ease across the board in line with robust LNG imports and a longer-term outlook for stable supply. In broader markets, Brent Crude has risen modestly to $75.17/barrel (+1.25%), reflecting continued geopolitical influences. Meanwhile, carbon markets remain mixed, with EU carbon allowances (EUA) for December 2024 trading lower at €69.27/tonne (-1.04%), while UK carbon allowances (UKA) rose 1.22% to £37.31/tonne. On the currency front, the GBP/EUR exchange rate has firmed slightly to 1.203 (+0.024%), while GBP/USD softened to 1.253 (-0.423%). As the week unfolds, market participants will closely monitor the combined impact of colder weather, reduced renewable output, and gas storage trends. While near-term pressures persist, the interplay of supply and demand will remain a key driver of volatility. Stay tuned for more insights as the energy market evolves this winter. Let me know if there are any additional details you'd like to include!

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6th December 2024, Daily UK #Energy Market Overview - This morning, the UK energy market faces a challenging landscape with the system opening 9 mcm/day undersupplied. #Gas prices show a slight decline, with NBP Day-Ahead settling at 114.50 p/therm. Meanwhile, UK Power Day-Ahead Base dropped significantly to £77.75/MWh, down by £15.73, reflecting bearish conditions across the board. Colder weather looms as temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal norms from this weekend, increasing heating demand and pressure on energy systems. While #LNG send-outs remain steady, Norwegian exports are ramping up, mitigating some supply concerns despite additional planned maintenance at Sleipner and Gullfaks. UK gas demand surged to 248.77 mcm, driven by robust LDZ requirements. Wind generation is forecast to weaken next week, further tightening gas-for-#power needs. Power prices softened significantly due to strong wind generation earlier in the week and declining European gas storage levels, now at 84%, marking a 3% week-on-week drop. The geopolitical landscape adds complexity, with President Putin's decree easing payment methods for gas exports to counter sanctions against Gazprombank. Market reactions remain muted but watchful as these changes could influence European and UK energy curves further. On the global front, Brent crude is stable at $72.09/bbl, while coal prices fell to $115.54/tonne. Carbon trading saw minor dips, with EUA Dec 24 at €67.34/tonne and UK ETS Dec 24 at £36.17/tonne, reflecting subdued industrial activity. Currency movements show a slight strengthening of the pound, with GBP/EUR at 1.2077 and GBP/USD at 1.2758. This offers mild relief for import-heavy energy trades but remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. As colder weather and supply challenges converge, market participants must stay vigilant, especially with LNG arrivals scheduled to bolster supplies. The evolving dynamics of European storage, renewables output, and geopolitical influences will continue shaping the market trajectory.

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UK Energy Market Update - August 15, 2024 - The UK energy market continues to navigate a complex landscape, driven by fluctuating demand, supply dynamics, and geopolitical influences. Power Prices: UK Day-Ahead (DA) Baseload prices have settled at £52.28/MWh, experiencing a notable decrease of £28.36 from the previous session. This significant drop highlights the ongoing volatility in the market, driven by varying weather conditions and supply factors. Gas Prices: The NBP Day-Ahead gas price stands at 79.00p/therm, reflecting a slight dip from earlier in the week. With Norwegian flows to the UK increasing to 81mcm/day and the anticipated arrival of LNG tankers from the United States, the UK gas market remains well-supplied. However, maintenance activities in Norway and fluctuating demand continue to impact pricing. Market Trends: Both gas and power markets have seen mixed movements recently. While gas prices are slightly down, forward contracts show slight upticks, suggesting market participants are pricing in potential supply constraints as we approach the winter months. Geopolitical Impact: The global energy landscape remains fragile, with ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing market sentiment. The recent arrest warrant issued over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline attacks underscores the persistent risks to supply security in Europe. Looking Ahead: As we move towards the end of summer, the market is closely watching weather forecasts, LNG arrivals, and the return of Norwegian gas production from maintenance. These factors will be critical in shaping prices in the coming weeks. In these uncertain times, staying informed and agile is key to navigating the energy market. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #GasPrices #PowerPrices #EnergyTrading #MarketUpdate

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             Morning Briefing 14/10/2024   Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 34.7GW and due to peak this evening at 37.1GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £65 - £251 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £102.16 in the 1hr and £110.71 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 3.4GW and due to drop to 2.4GW this afternoon before climbing up to over 15GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.4GW at 1pm. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £104.00/MWh with gas providing 55.9%/19.56GW, wind providing 13.1%/4.60GW, solar providing 0.9%/0.33GW and nuclear providing 11.1%/3.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 95.50p/th (3.26p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £87.25/MWh (8.73p/KWh)   Month ahead (Nov 24) ·Nov NBP gas is currently up 0.80% at 100.23p/th (3.42p/KWh). ·Nov TTF gas is currently up 0.75% at €40.18MWh. ·Nov UK Baseload closed at £86.50/MWh (8.65p/KWh) ·UK gas prices had a negative day on Friday, with the DA price down 2.13%, due to the rise in renewables and drop in demand over the weekend. Along the curve we saw some moderate losses, with the Q1 25 contract down 0.83% as the increase in Norwegian output helped add some slight pressure, although the market remained worried about several ongoing risk factors. ·UK power prices also were negative, with the DA price falling 13.22% on the forecast strong renewables over the weekend. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was down 0.71% following the gas sentiment, and the forecast of higher than normal temps and strong supply.     ·According to Gassco AS, there are unplanned outages at Gullfaks, Kristin, Oseberg and Troll this morning, with a combined unavailable capacity of 30.4mcm/d, with total exports at 315.7MSm. ·Oil prices are down this morning, wiping out nearly all gains made last week, after data showed China’s inflation rate declined and a lack of clarity on the country’s economic stimulus plan stoked fears about fuel demand in the worlds biggest crude importer.     ·Latest forecasts show temps to be around averages and then rise above from the weekend. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks ·UK Gas prices as of Fridays close -  o   Month ahead 99.37p/th (3.39p/KWh) down 1.05% DoD* o   Q1 25 103.51p/th (3.53p/KWh) down 0.83% DoD o   Summer 25 94.77p/th (3.23p/KWh) down 0.78% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Fridays close – o   Month ahead £85.50/MWh (8.55p/KWh) down 1.16% DoD* o   Q1 25 £89.33MWh (8.93p/KWh) down 0.71% DoD o   Summer 25 £75.01MWh (7.50p/KWh) down 1.25% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #norway #russia #oil

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As of October 1, 2024, the UK energy market has entered a critical period as colder weather and tighter supply conditions push natural gas prices higher. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 92.35 p/therm today, driven by falling temperatures across the UK and Europe, which are expected to remain below the five-year average for the rest of the week. With Norwegian gas exports holding steady and UKCS terminal receipts down, gas-for-power demand has surged in response to a forecasted decline in wind speeds throughout the week. Meanwhile, UK LNG send-outs have increased to 29 mcm/day, with the next LNG cargo from Qatar anticipated later this week to shore up supplies. On the forward curve, NBP front-month prices climbed modestly, with November 2024 contracts up by 0.96 p/therm to 97.36 p/therm, while December 2024 saw a rise of 0.77 p/therm to 99.36 p/therm. Curve prices continue to reflect market concerns around reduced LNG imports and the potential for increased demand as the winter period approaches, setting the stage for continued volatility. In the power market, UK Day-Ahead baseload prices fell to £71.78/MWh, a drop of £5.02 from the previous session, while peakload power rose to £88.09/MWh. The tightening of the power system, driven by reduced wind generation and increasing reliance on gas for power, suggests further upward pressure on power prices as the week progresses. Forward baseload contracts, particularly January 2025, have seen slight increases, with the contract settling at £90.15/MWh, up by £0.75. As renewable output declines and colder weather takes hold, higher demand for gas-fired power generation is likely to fuel further price hikes. European gas storage levels remain robust, standing at 94.28% as reported by AGSI, offering some cushion for the winter months. However, risks tied to LNG supply reductions and planned outages at key Norwegian gas facilities could exacerbate market tightness. These developments highlight the importance of closely monitoring supply flows as winter approaches. In the global commodities market, Brent crude futures for November 2024 eased slightly by $0.21, settling at $71.77/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global economic uncertainties, contributing to softening oil prices. On the carbon market, EUA December 2024 prices dropped by €0.77 to settle at €65.56/tonne, while UK ETS contracts also saw a slight decline, closing at £36.45/tonne. These shifts come against the backdrop of ongoing discussions on the future of emissions reductions and energy transition strategies across Europe, which could have further implications for carbon pricing in the coming months. As we move further into October, the market will be focused on how sustained cooler temperatures and reduced wind generation will impact both gas and power prices. LNG cargo arrivals and any potential disruptions to Norwegian gas flows will also be key factors shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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