On October 30th, 2024, the UK energy market shows an interesting balance between weather effects and renewable generation forecasts. Temperatures across the country are forecasted to stay about 1.5°C above seasonal averages, likely dampening heating demand. This warmth may weigh on prompt UK gas contracts, with softer demand seen as a bearish signal. Conversely, wind generation is expected to underperform significantly, by more than 20% below seasonal norms, pushing prompt power prices upward as wind power generation dwindles for the week. In terms of gas supply and demand, the UK grid is projected to end the day 9.56 million cubic meters long. This surplus, combined with the warmer temperatures, suggests additional downward pressure on gas prices. At the same time, EU gas storage sits at an impressive 95.3% full, which could further impact near-curve National Balancing Point (NBP) prices, keeping them subdued as we head deeper into the heating season. This substantial gas storage level may serve as a buffer against extreme price volatility as winter approaches, though supply-demand shifts remain possible as colder weather eventually returns. Price updates reflect today’s conditions across gas and power markets. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price has decreased slightly to 105.96 pence per therm, down by 0.89%, while the UK Day-Ahead power price follows with a minor dip to £104.84 per MWh, down by 0.55%. Monthly and quarterly forward contracts are mixed, with November gas prices up by 0.29% at 107.22 p/th and December up by 0.62% at 108.91 p/th. On the power side, November Base power rose by 1.66% to £96.15/MWh, while December Base is slightly lower at £90.25/MWh, down by 0.28%. Carbon markets display a divergence today. The EU carbon price for December has gained 1.31%, bringing it to €67.28 per tonne, reflecting increased demand for carbon allowances as winter approaches. In contrast, UK carbon prices for December fell by 1.82%, landing at £39.16 per tonne, suggesting some relief in compliance costs for domestic emitters. In the broader commodity complex, Brent Crude for front-month delivery is down 0.42%, currently at $71.12 per barrel, while coal front-year prices see a slight uptick to $125.67 per tonne, up by 0.49%. Renewable generation challenges and warmer weather impacts are likely to define this week's trading, with lower wind output creating tighter supply for power. These dynamics may continue to keep market participants attentive to price movements as the UK energy market adjusts to shorter days and fluctuating renewable contributions. With gas storage high and temperatures moderating, the immediate-term outlook appears to offer a mix of price stability and sector-specific pressures.
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𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 - 𝟎𝟖/𝟎𝟕/𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐠𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬 Wind's contribution to electricity generation plummeted to a meagre 1% (0.29 GW) this morning. However, the wind generation is expected to increase during the day and night, reaching over 10 GW by tomorrow 9 a.m. This increase in renewable generation reduces the requirement for more expensive gas-fired generation and is likely to be reflected in a falling day-ahead price for both gas and power contracts. 𝐉𝐊𝐌 (𝐉𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐧/𝐊𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐚) 𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝟔-𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 JKM LNG month-ahead contracts at a near six-month high of $12.49 per MMBTU make Asia the favourite destination. Monsoon-induced temperature drops in Southeast Asia should reduce the need for LNG going forwards, however, currently the UK and Europe are competing with high-priced Asian markets for LNG supplies. This is likely a significant contributing factor to the far lower levels of UK bound LNG cargoes compared to average. Unlike the month-on-month decline in baseload electricity prices, UK gas prices have not fallen significantly, most likely due to supply-side concerns. The price of UK gas is currently 78.4 p/th, and prices may fall this month in line with the predicted drop in demand if supply side concerns alleviate. 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐢𝐧 𝐐𝟑-𝟐𝟒 The increase in worldwide demand from Q2-24 to Q3-24 could be 1.5mb/d, owing to seasonality and a historical increase in transit demand during the summer. This is likely to be enough to sustain Brent Crude at its present level of $86/bbl during the summer. However, Fed rate cuts, a following rise in activity, and increasing US petrol demand could push Brent prices above $90/bbl. Smarta Energy #EnergyMarket #CommodityPrices #MarketTrends #Sustainability
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October 10th, 2024: Today’s energy market shows a dynamic interplay of cooling temperatures, supply disruptions, and geopolitical tensions, driving movements across gas, power, oil, and carbon markets. UK gas prices for Day-Ahead delivery settled at 94.00 p/therm, as Norwegian flows ramped up following unplanned outages, notably at Gullfaks and Troll. Despite this, the UK system opened long by 10mcm/day, buoyed by increased exports through Langeled and higher forecasted local distribution zone demand due to a cooler spell set to persist until next week. Expectations of rising temperatures from mid-October, as per the latest EC46 forecast, suggest a potential decrease in demand, with the UK LNG send-out holding steady at 12mcm/day. On the power side, UK Day-Ahead Baseload prices slipped to £71.65/MWh, with gas-for-power demand climbing due to lower wind generation. Power prices mirrored gas, following the trend of day-on-day reductions across forward contracts, reflecting a cooler yet stable generation landscape. Three LNG cargoes are scheduled for UK delivery in the coming weeks, with North West Europe seeing a flurry of arrivals, promising a well-stocked supply for the foreseeable future. Brent crude closed at $76.58 per barrel, dipping slightly amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East following the recent conflict involving Iran. This, combined with concerns over global economic stability, kept the market volatile, although the current outlook remains cautiously stable. The coal market also saw downward movement, with ARA CIF contracts for 2025 settling at $122.25 per tonne, a significant drop as Europe’s energy transition continues to pressure fossil fuel prices. Meanwhile, carbon markets showed a rise in EUA Dec 2024 certificates, which reached €62.01 per tonne, while UK ETS Dec 2024 edged higher to £36.61 per tonne, reflecting the broader European energy market’s focus on emissions reductions. The push towards carbon neutrality is clearly influencing price shifts across the energy sector as market participants anticipate tighter regulations and reduced supply from traditional energy sources. Overall, the UK's energy landscape remains highly sensitive to both domestic weather patterns and international events, particularly in the oil and gas sectors. As temperatures are forecast to rise from mid-October, we may see softer demand for gas, but uncertainty in global geopolitics could introduce further volatility. This remains a market where both supply chain resilience and strategic planning will play crucial roles in shaping price movements.
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Gas prices volatile despite a market in balance Every week, we inform you about the latest news on the energy markets 👉 Hereunder the summary of this April 11. Gas Prices are volatile despite a market in balance ✔ Prices proved volatile last week. The TTF CAL25 is currently trading at around EUR 32/MWh. ✔ Unscheduled work in Norway made prices rise, as did an increase in LNG imports by Asia. ✔ We remain of the opinion that high stocks and weak demand do not justify an upward trend. Moreover, profit-takings could also cause a fall. Electricity Price rises limited by weak industrial demand and strong renewable production ✔ Spot prices are seeing a falling demand due to high temperatures and strong winds. Solar power production over the weekend pushed prices below zero. ✔ Long-term prices follow rising gas and CO2 emission prices. The expected colder temperatures for next week also play a role. ◾ Weak industrial demand and strong renewable production limit the upside potential. ✔ CO2 emission prices are back above EUR60/t. This rise could perhaps be explained by German industrial figures, among others, which stood out as positive. But it is still too early to see a real trend reversal as the overall industry is remains weak. ✔ The European Commission published its preliminary report on 2023 emissions. The year saw a significant decline of 15.5% compared to 2022, thanks to, among other things, rapid implementation of new renewable generation capacity, energy-saving measures and weak industrial demand. How will the markets behave in the coming weeks? 👉 Subscribe to the Energy Market News https://bit.ly/33hGt68 to receive your complete analysis by e-mail every week. 👈 #electricity #gas #energymarket #CO2
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End-of-Day UK Energy Market Report - 20th August 2024 As we wrap up the trading day, here’s a detailed look at how the UK energy markets have performed: UK Power Prices saw a modest decline today, with front-month contracts closing at £79.75, down by 1.36%. This movement came as the market reacted to slight revisions in the Nordic maintenance schedule, which eased some of the pressure on supply expectations. Natural Gas (NBP) experienced a more significant drop, with front-month prices falling by 4.08% to 91.39p. The decrease reflects both market adjustments and revised forecasts that suggest a more balanced supply-demand outlook in the near term. In the Carbon Markets, we observed an uptick. December 2024 EU Allowances (EUAs) increased by 1.09%, closing at €73.31. Similarly, UK Allowances (UKAs) finished the day up 0.59%, settling at £41.15. These movements indicate ongoing confidence in the carbon markets as regulatory pressures and demand for compliance instruments remain strong. Finally, Brent Crude ended the day on a weaker note, dropping 2.74% to $77.50. This decline was largely influenced by broader market concerns and adjustments in global supply expectations. As these trends continue to unfold, it's crucial to stay informed and agile. Our team at Catalyst is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights
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UK Energy Market Update - August 15, 2024 - The UK energy market continues to navigate a complex landscape, driven by fluctuating demand, supply dynamics, and geopolitical influences. Power Prices: UK Day-Ahead (DA) Baseload prices have settled at £52.28/MWh, experiencing a notable decrease of £28.36 from the previous session. This significant drop highlights the ongoing volatility in the market, driven by varying weather conditions and supply factors. Gas Prices: The NBP Day-Ahead gas price stands at 79.00p/therm, reflecting a slight dip from earlier in the week. With Norwegian flows to the UK increasing to 81mcm/day and the anticipated arrival of LNG tankers from the United States, the UK gas market remains well-supplied. However, maintenance activities in Norway and fluctuating demand continue to impact pricing. Market Trends: Both gas and power markets have seen mixed movements recently. While gas prices are slightly down, forward contracts show slight upticks, suggesting market participants are pricing in potential supply constraints as we approach the winter months. Geopolitical Impact: The global energy landscape remains fragile, with ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing market sentiment. The recent arrest warrant issued over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline attacks underscores the persistent risks to supply security in Europe. Looking Ahead: As we move towards the end of summer, the market is closely watching weather forecasts, LNG arrivals, and the return of Norwegian gas production from maintenance. These factors will be critical in shaping prices in the coming weeks. In these uncertain times, staying informed and agile is key to navigating the energy market. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #GasPrices #PowerPrices #EnergyTrading #MarketUpdate
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𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 - 𝟏𝟓/𝟎𝟕/𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐆𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬 Month ahead gas prices rose by 1%, closing at 73.12p/th on Friday, and are currently trading at 73p/th. Meanwhile, JKM(Japan-Korea) LNG month ahead futures held steady at $12.33/MMBTU, maintaining a premium over European markets. Notably, no LNG cargoes are scheduled for arrival in the UK, but, thanks to higher-than-average storage levels and strong flows from Norway, the UK may be well positioned to meet its requirements with no immediate LNG imports. 🔹 UK Natural Gas Storage: 48% 🔹 European Storage: Over 80% We anticipate the gas market will trade sideways in the short-term, with potential price spikes as markets remain vigilant for any significant developments. 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 Wind generation fell today to 0.5GW, driving day ahead electricity prices up 30% to £77.48/MWh. However, wind generation is expected to rebound overnight, peaking at 7.4GW by 14:00 tomorrow, potentially lowering day ahead prices for tomorrow. Month ahead (Aug 24) baseload electricity prices were up 2% to £64.75/MWh on Friday, recovering from an 8% drop over the past four days, while no price changes were observed in the winter months’ contracts. We anticipate baseload electricity prices to trade sideways, mirroring gas market trends, as gas has constituted over 21% of the UK power stack on average in the past 30 days. 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝'𝐬 𝐄𝐔𝐑𝐎 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 Unfortunately, England lost in the Euro finals last night, but some intriguing national electricity demand trends were observed during the semi’s match. Demand spiked by 1 GW at halftime and saw a 0.74 GW rise at the full-time whistle, likely reflecting fans grabbing refreshments. (Image Credit: National Grid ESO) These demand patterns offer valuable insights for grid balancing, especially as we transition to higher renewable and decentralized electricity generation. Understanding such dynamics is crucial for maintaining a stable and efficient energy system. Smarta Energy #GasPrices #ElectricityDemand #EnergyStorage #RenewableGeneration
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Energy Market Update - When do we fix? An article we wrote for a large buying group. Thought it useful to share with Energy managers and Contract procurement decision makers.... “At the time of writing with winter and the heating season well underway, we are seeing good European Gas storage levels (85%+) and depending on the harshness of this winter Europe expects to be coming out the other side in spring somewhere between 42 and 55% full. (this plays a large part in price of electric). LNG deliveries into the UK are down significantly this year compared to 23-24 levels with many diverted to Asia and this has served as a price holder rather than allowing them to fall too much, even as we hit near full storage coming out of the summer. December is expected to see around 15 LNG deliveries into the UK which is good news and will keep storage levels up as the cold weather bites in the main drawdown season. There are still many Geo-political issues at play, potential sanctions from the new Trump administration on specific oil producing nations such as Iran and conflict worldwide which are all serving as bullish factors in keeping prices propped up. There will no doubt be some form of retaliation from Russia in the next few months which could be sabotage on an interconnector or the likes, to hurt the UK/European energy industry which will spike prices. Sadly, there is very little evidence or data on the horizon that prices are going to fall from these levels. They hit the bottom for this period in Feb 2024 and have steadily climbed since. When you should fix and for how long is a question we are asked daily….’Electric Prices are about the lowest they’ve been in nearly 5 years now (low to mid 20’s) and many people were scorched by having to fix electric contracts at 35-55p during the crisis. With the uncertainly and volatility surrounding all commodities and the fact there’s little evidence to suggest prices will fall further, many of our clients have already fixed any contracts due to begin in Q1 & Q2 of '25 simply for price security and guaranteed savings. In many cases you can lock out your new contract price up to 12 months ahead and this may prove to be a good move for many businesses’. https://lnkd.in/eJJqfBsC
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Gas prices rise while market fundamentals remain healthy Every week, we inform you about the latest news on the energy markets 👉 Hereunder the summary of this March 21. Gas Upward momentum while market fundamentals remain healthy ✔ The rise in oil and coal prices underpin gas prices. ✔ But the upward momentum seems to be slowing down and market fundamentals remain comfortable. The TTF CAL25 is currently at around EUR 31/MWh. ✔ To keep in mind: Asian prices are going up and are now higher than European gas prices. There is thus a risk of LNG cargoes shifting from Europe to Asia. Electricity Prices are in line with the evolution of fuel prices ✔ European spot prices diverged on Tuesday: - They saw a rise by about EUR10/MWh in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands due to the ongoing lack of wind. - In contrast, they fell by almost EUR9/MWh in France, where very mild temperatures were able to offset weak production of renewables. ✔ Forward prices reflect the evolution of fuel and CO2 emission prices. The BE CAL25 is now at below EUR 80/MWh. ✔ Market participants cannot really explain the rise in the carbon price (59 EUR/t) and there is seemingly a consensus that a correction is imminent. How will the markets behave in the coming weeks? 👉 Subscribe to the Energy Market News https://bit.ly/33hGt68 to receive your complete analysis by e-mail every week. 👈 #electricity #gas #energymarket #CO2
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Gas Reliance Persists November normally marks the start of the heating season proper in Europe. The solar and wind generation output is the lowest in winter when demand for electricity is the highest. Earlier this year, gas prices in Europe spiked following a production outage at a Norwegian platform and geopolitical jitters about the Middle East. This inevitably means that Europe will need a lot more gas. Bloomberg even suggested that if the winter is colder than the last two, storage could be depleted by the end of heating season. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Ukraine has stated it would not renew a gas transit deal with Russia’s Gazprom after it expires next month. The loss of that supply would mean higher demand for liquefied natural gas—likely including Russian liquefied natural gas. European LNG imports are already on the rise, by the way. Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported in his latest column that October LNG purchases by European buyers had risen for the first time since the start of the year as gas suppliers and traders anticipate the seasonal spike in demand. These will likely move higher still as solar generation takes a 50% dive in the winter months. Wind is not always at its best during the winter months, either. There is such a thing as a wind drought and these sometimes occur during peak demand months, highlighting the limitations of wind power. It is because of these limitations, that Europe will be burning more natural gas in the coming 3 to 4 months—and more coal, too. In winter, Europe is reminded that heating and lighting are more important than emissions, which is why Europe continues to import coal and keeps coal-fired power plants slated for closure on hold for the winter months. In fact, this dependence may deepen because the wind and solar industries are facing a mounting challenge: negative electricity prices resulting from excess production during peak sunshine periods. This means that new additions in wind and solar capacity may well slow down, capping the contribution of these two sources of energy and supporting a larger share in the energy mix for gas and maybe even coal. At the same time, the EU remains dead set on ending all supply of Russian gas by 2027 at the latest—even as purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas increase. The EU doubles down on ending Russian energy supplies with zero low-cost alternatives for reasons of infrastructural constraints. So, gas is going to remain a lot more expensive for Europeans than it is for Americans and even Chinese. But gas will continue to feature prominently in Europe’s energy mix—because climate change or not, winter still comes every year. If you want the power equipment presentation or quotations, then please contact us: info@modernios.tech, +37064678790, http://modernios.tech. #modernios , #technologios, #moderniostechnologijos, #energyindustry, #innovation, #technology, #creativity, #future, #economy, #markets https://lnkd.in/dkhJee5C
Gas Reliance Persists as Europe Faces Winter Energy Crunch | OilPrice.com
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