Andrew Gordon √

Its super interesting the commentaries here. The old school saying its "deeply irresponsible. " But equally I would also call them out that they are equally deeply irresponsible and unprofessional for their response and for not considering any allocation and also not considering the portfolio in its entirety, you cant make a decision on trustees or pension funds on one asset alone you have to consider the whole portfolio. Infact I know of a case where the Trustees were threated to be sued for not putting Bitcoin in a Trust investment portfolio! Afterall, bitcoin is worth 0.3% of the world's money which would mean a 0.3% allocation yes would be more sensible than a 3% one in a pension pot planning for the future. Its also growing in use. But certainly some form of allocation would be made. Or indeed if not in Bitcoin in ETF's or the Crypto supply chain. But if you consider that the Euro has only been around less than 25 years, and during those years its purchasing power has fallen massively and bitcoin is now 15 years old and its purchasing power has exponentially increased, who is right, and who is deeply irresponsible?. When converted to the value of one Euro in 2020, goods and services that cost one Euro in the year 2000 would cost approximately 1.39 Euros today, meaning that goods and services in the Eurozone are 39% more expensive today than they were twenty years ago. By now it will be nearly 50%! Also you can never judge the trustees or the pension fund by considering the bitcoin allocation by itself. If the rest of the portfolio is ultra conservative then it might be fair to put in bitcoin. It is whether you like it or not part of the economy and people are buying and selling assets with it and so far they have had a very good ride esp if they bought when it was only 380 euros a coin like I originally did, I know one person who bought a $27. Given the rates of printing money and inflation in other currencies it is indeed sensible to have some bitcoin or crypto in your portfolio, and 3% is generally accepted as a small tranche in a portfolio congruent with diversification principles. For example if bitcoin halves you only loose 1.5% of your portfolio. You will see a generation shift happening fast in Pension and Portfolio make ups. The big enemy is inflation and keeping your money in GBP, Dollars and Euros is not going to help you beat inflation. Bitcoin has shown it can, keeping it in Euros at the moment is a disaster, but would never be called "Deeply irresponsible" when actually it is incredibly poor strategy. Cryptocurrency payments are set to grow at a CAGR of nearly 17 percent between 2022 and 2029. Crypto.com study – which estimates 219 million global Bitcoin holders, this amounts to approximately 2.74% of the worldwide population. Bitcoin is indeed a growing part of the economy. #bitcoin #portfolios #investments https://lnkd.in/dfQb7aH2

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Zapaygo is just the latest example of why the UK's Insolvency system is unfit for purpose. Founded by serial failure Elliot Hall, Zapaygo took £500k off Crowdcube investors and £5m off British Business Bank via a Future Fund loan. Various others investors also wasted their cash. From the outset it was clear to anyone with any business sense and experience that this was a joke outfit. Elliot was a joke as was his team of mincers. They had a 'contract' with the NEC Group which if it had been of any commercial value would have let them build their business. But it was mainly smoke and mirrors and never produced a penny. In fact despite the huge valuation given to the company (by Elliot), this risible shambles never turned over more than few pennies. It never functioned and is now in liquidation although as you will see below, even this has been farcical. In January 2023 - so almost 2 years ago, the filing at Companies House stated Order of the Court to wind up. But nothing has happned since. The company has been in limbo for more than 3 years. Elliot Hall who has a lot of questions to answer about where all the cash went, has been let off and is as we write starting up some new nonsense again. The last filed accounts if they are to be believed, showed current creditors of over £10m for a company with a revenue of £24k. Losses for that year were £1.6m and apparently the company employed 14 people. What were they doing? Back when Elliot was taking cash off investors via Crowdcube, we wrote about this company revealing some uncomfortable truths about the NEC 'contract' and the use of passing off by Elliot to fool investors. Elliot set his lawyers onto us very quickly and we were obliged to withdraw our articles and all mention of Elliot and Zapaygo or face legal action. The investment was a success as a result. We were quite sure we were right but the risk was too great at the time. Now it appears that the legal firm was also in on the game; which is worrying! We contacted them but they have refused to comment. It is a huge mess - one that involved millions of pounds and many millions of pounds of UK taxpayers cash. So why is it in limbo? Why isnt Elliot facing charges? Why hasnt he been banned as a Company Director? What the hell is going on? We are told that Elliot has tried to erase this experience from his LI page - you couldnt make it up mate 🤣

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A centralised need versus a decentralised dream Looking at the crypto space today, we see a conflict of ideologies. One particular thing that reoccurs if the desire for absolute decentralisation, our abuse of it and then the importance of centralisation...of sorts. I remember some years back, someone said "people don't especially dislike the power imbalance and tyranny in the world today, they just hate that they are the ones on the receiving end of it." When you think about it even in the least bit, you realise just how true it is. The original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto was a p2p, decentralised system of network, untouchable by the government, and usable by all. Looking at the crypto space today, I think we can understand see that pure decentralisation is at best just an utopian dream. Why? Because when given an absolute free reign, humans often show why centralisation and some sort of regulation is necessary. Let me paint a picture; if a project raises let's say $400M in series funding and decides to do an airdrop (whether retroactive or not), you'll discover an insane amount of "users" will show up out of nowhere. Groups will run Sybil farms, individuals will run 50 wallets, pretending to be 50 people. Here's what happens; - The project gets a false number as to the number of users. - They either reduce the number of eligible participants using stricter criteria (which affects real users) or they just invent random criteria. - The allocation to genuine people who probably didn't Sybil gets smaller. - The project has to reevaluate reward distribution and so on. This often happens in a decentralised system. The moment you introduce some sort of regulation like Gitcoin passport, verification and so on which requires a "proof of humanity," you'll notice a drastic drop in those numbers. What's even more funny is that you'll see certain projects with 500k Discord members and similar amount on TG, but having over 3M+ users claiming to have done the tasks (sometimes, the task requires you joining either the TG of Discord), so you start to look at the maths in disbelief. Someone said to me "airdrops are becoming harder," and my reply was because more and more people see it as a way to game the system. I remember something unique from my time working with Ivan at OKx, he had this unique approach to KOLs and affiliates. He would have weekly discussions with us about how to prevent people from gaming the system. I mean more people equals a faster way of reaching your KPIs right? But he was always emphatic about REAL PEOPLE. He would talk about how only businesses with real people only survive. I believe this (so many fake users) is one of the reasons why so many projects go under so quickly. You're anticipating 2M new users, only to receive less than 200k. Where did the rest go? I know it looks like a case for centralisation, no, it's not. It's just the reality of things. Decentralisation has its own advantages which I'll talk about soon.

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How to trade after a VOL explosion. I caught a brilliant podcast on this a couple of weeks ago from Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly so full hat is tipped to these guys at The Macro Trading Floor. As a former Futures trader with my own book I very quickly had to survive and eat what I killed. If you didn't trade the rent and exchange fees each month bled you out so the impetus was to trade if the opportunity was there. My first big proper VOL event was the Greek Crisis back around 2012 and I was on the Bund desk. To say it was a baptism of fire is an understatement. So with that in mind here are my five top tips on how to trade after such an event. 1. Find out the WHY. Having a 20 big figure JPY Carry unwind is one thing but will this affect the global economy? No. This was caused by over exuberance with the market at the time ignoring Value/REER and US Macro. For quite a while it ignored and rebounded from MOF intervention. For me this started at the beginning of 2024. 2. Look at the retrace on the daily. We were close to the beginning of the madness lows at 2024 levels so it is a natural time to pause. Also I remember at the start of the year when 10yr yields fell out of correlation with USDJPY for many times - along side weaker US macro. This was the first red flag. 3. Use a tried and tested framework. I like to use something similar to Alf and Brent in that I wait for VOL to reduce to half of the break out high, or I wait 3 days. This is when a few CTA funds might sneak back in. I use a couple of other things but my point is use SOMETHING that works for your framework. As a natural fader I don't like catching a falling knife and would rather add to the position. That is my edge and won't work for everyone. 4. Study the baton. This move started with JPY, then went to bonds, then to stocks. It make me laugh that the headlines and the VIX with Asia crashing. My clients have been all over this for weeks. 5. Use common sense. A mid meeting cut from Goolsbee is pure fantasy jawboning - but it did the trick for risk to bounce. 6. Take a look back at previous Asian crashes on Sunday night. You'll often find a reversal on the Monday when London picks it up the baton. The above is only based on my experience and if it helps someone then brilliant. Like with anything i post take what connects and leave out what you don't need. If you would like to know more about our mentoring programmes pleas ebook me in for a discovery call at the link below: https://lnkd.in/eCJjWwGu

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Have you taken our 4 mins trader test? Today I'll be personally going through the scores to see if any of you have got what it takes to be a part of a major Futures desk. This will end by end of play today - Wednesday 14th August at 5pm London time Follow the 1,2,3 and change your life. 1. Take the 4 mins test and get a score and assessment 2. Book me in for a discovery call in the link in the comments 3. Start your journey to create the real currency of value. More TIME. https://lnkd.in/eAgpZcgy

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Punishing Putin by Stephanie Baker is well worth a read and is a well documented reminder of what the last 2 and half years of western sanctions against the Russian regime for its unlawful invasion of Ukraine has meant which has involved targeting finance, oil and gas, elites, oligarchs, defence, electronics, to name the most important at unprecedented levels. Whilst the costs to Russia from these unprecedented sanctions are real, and are likely to have long term consequences for Russia’s future the initial optimism that sanctions could quickly “kneecap” Putin’s war machine has proved premature. Stephanie Baker reminds us of the description of Russia quoting former US Senator John McCain as “a gas station masquerading as a country” which is unfair but has a ring to it. Comprehensively sanctioning a country which produces 11% of the world’s oil and is the 11th largest economy in the world by Western countries and allies, can have material consequences but without the full support of all G20 countries and many other third countries these sanctions can be undermined and in time sanctions circumvented which they are being. The experiment to use sanctions as the best available realistic alternative made sense and without an alternative strategy still makes sense. The approach to use rolling sanctions rather than throwing the “kitchen sink” at Russia right from the start, may in retrospect look over cautious, though the capacity and consensus needed to do more, quicker was never available. By denying Ukraine access though to leading military assets and technology and its free use, it may be that it is Western restrictions applied to Ukraine ironically and not those on Russia that may have the biggest effect on the progress of the war in Ukraine. After all it’s the technological advantage the West has over Russia and others that is likely the difference maker now and in the future as to how major conflicts are won and lost with underlying economic strength along with political will and leadership. Whatever view you take, from a sanctions perspective, this has been a unique time and one where many things have been tried and many lessons should and no doubt already have been learned. Stephanie Baker’s book presents the reader with an excellent reminder of how Western Sanctions have been used and also how these are being circumvented. Whilst Western leaders initially assumed Russia could be isolated for its unlawful invasion of Ukraine and therefore that sanctions would gain strong international support, that hasn’t happened for example, to the extent that international support for the war on terror initially followed 9/11, which demonstrates the lack of international co operation and support generally and the polarisation of opinion and interests, into more hardline blocks of common interest as well as non aligned groups, ominously reminiscent of the Cold War.

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With UK #wind and #solar penetration hitting 57% of generation, National Grid ESO is currently paying circa £500/MWh to dump power into the continent which is exacerbated by low weekend demand and high, low cost #renewable penetration across the continent. By way of example, Germany produced records amounts of #solar this weekend and is set to hit new highes as more capacity and summer resources peak in the months ahead. #inertia is forecast to be really low reflecting Sunday demand combined with high intermittent concentrations of #wind and #solar generation, consequently National Grid has been reversing some of the inter-connector capacity to provide headroom for #ccgt to fire up generating extra spinning mass on the system. This isn’t such a problem when demand is high relative to generation but this is now an expensive option as power prices are low to negative across Europe on a more regular basis. #bess, #synchronouscondensers, #dynamicmetering users and #ev owners will be the net beneficiaries. Watch out for balancing mechanism costs moving forward. #dsr, #demandmanagement and #gridtech can’t happen quick enough.

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T+1 What's the hold up? Yesterday the UK Technical T+1 Task Force presented its recommendations to a packed room of industry firms and hundreds of people dialing in. There has been an enormous effort by the whole industry to try and get the UK to T+1 as practicably as possible but no later than 2027. Misalignment between Nth America the UK and EU is already causing firms and investors increased costs. Mainly because of wider spreads funding for FX and mutual funds but also significant increase in overheads with bodies being thrown at problems to avoid fails and out of hours working. There other problems but you get my drift on costs! The new as unwritten Code of Conduct is being seen as a half way house between Best Practice and regulation. This has never been tried across such a diverse industry as UK Capital markets let alone international. There is no Governance structure yet supplied in its definition leaving the industry questioning how it will work and be enforced. Will there be any sanctions? It was presented yesterday as a work book rather than a Code of Conduct as no firm will need to sign it. What then is the point? Regular readers will know that ISITC EUROPE CIC never supported T+1 unless it could be implemented with cost to investors or Issuers. We are now seeing that they will suffer increased costs. Our policy has been if it is mandated by the Government then despite our strong reservations about the benefits to investors and without a industry cost benefit analysis we need to support the industry to mitigate costs and risks to implement T+1. Forget new systems the firms in the industry will use existing or adapt those already in use. New systems like Blockchain DLT are for another story but loom large every day. The question is how to move to T+1 and if we are not getting regulatory support the only avenue left is market forces. We know the sell side investment banks can already settle T+1 and we know the majority of Broker Dealers can match successfully on Trade Date. So technically there is no problem. The main problem is behavioral. Getting allocations on trade date as near execution as possible. Pressing the button for batches sent to Crest every hour or more. Maintaining top quality static data and sharing in near real time like SSIs. All can be done today with thought and planning by firms. Why then don't the firms that can already settle T+1 do just that with immediate effect? Settlement in the UK is always been negotiable. So T+10 still happens for certificated shares. If there was a growing swell of firms setting T+1 the rest would have to follow if there was either a cost levied by the sell side for non T+1 or a refusal to deal. All firms in capital markets would then have a business decision to ensure they can settle T+1. The UK in the market force scenario would be mainly T+1 by the end of next year 2025. Without regulation nor a code of conduct both of which look like failed ideas.

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‘Tax rises inevitable’ after Bank of England money-printing losses - Say's Telegraph.. This is just stupid. If the Gilts held by the BOE are sold – yes, sold at a loss. If they are held – no loss, they will mature at par. The Bank of England still holds about 30% of outstanding UK debt. It is an asset on the Bank’s book, but a liability on the UK’s Treasury. On the national account it is a matching asset/liability book entry! Doh! The issue could be resolved by giving the Bank a coin – a Zonk. It would have a picture of the King on one side, and a face value of the outstanding gilts held by the Bank. The coin could then be an exhibit in the Bank’s excellent museum. Debt to GDP would immediately fall to a sustainable 70%. Why is it not happening? Because… . A)      The Bank and Treasury are Agencies of State set to ensure things are done proper like.. They are not there to propose accounting subterfuges and slights of hand.. even though there is no reason it could not work. B)      The Labour Party and Conservatives are terrified of the consequences of Econarsonist Liz Truss. The Trussterf*ck destabilised the UK’s previous virtuous sovereign trinity – nearly destroying the Gilts market when Liability Driven Investment trades broke. C)     Notice how the discussion around new policy is not about whether they will work, but are they funded! Both parties are hamstrung and terrified of another market instability event – which anything new may trigger. Zonk theory should work. It will not be inflationary as the money is already in system. No other investors will be hurt – they will still get 100% back at maturity. If they complain the Bank has been treated unfairly, then offer them the same – Zonks, which will be a wholly illiquid, perpetual, zero-coupon asset.

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Is the market picking up again? It seems so. With the recent news of inflation dropping to Bank of England’s 2% target, base rate expected to stay at 5.25% and the end of the election in sight - some stability seems to have picked up confidence. Investors have dived back into London and driving investment in fintech 👏🏽 Fintech companies took the top spot for UK start-up investment after raising $1.4bn (£1.1bn) in funding across 73 rounds, according to Dealroom.co and HSBC. This has trickled into hiring according to City AM, with a reported 61% increase in Fintech mandates from Jan to April. Technology mandates saw a 41% uplift, whilst Risk & Compliance was 87% 📈 To give some insight in to what we’ve seen at across InterQuest Group’s Financial Services clients. Talent Acquisiton - our mandates across the board from permanent, contract and exec search have increased by 65% in Q2. Talent Mangement - Two fintechs and one challenger banking client have instructed us to embed into the business as they prepare to scale. Consulting - Whilst continuing to execute lending platform development and migration programmes. One fintech and one challenger bank have engaged with InterQuest Group group to deliver on a regulatory programme and support the build of a technology solution. A good sign and hopefully more to come in H2 🤞🏽 Links to articles below 👇🏽

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Loss, loss and more loss What happened on the 18th of April'24 will be etched in my memory for good. I have repeated the date in numerous conversations I've had with my trading partner, family and friends. In a matter of 3 seconds (which I saw later in logs) I faced a loss of 5% of capital. Nifty had crashed about 270 points or 1.2% in that timeframe and all the stop losses of all strategies in play had triggered. I froze for a moment as I had never lost that much absolute amount in my life, and it was also the highest single day loss for me. The Loss could've been much worse as I saw in the trading community. But what started thereafter was an introspection of what could be done between then and next trading opportunity for us to stay in the game. Countless number of calls with my partner resulted in enhancements in current strategies, putting in additional diversifications and back testing and a better model to manage risk. This was a lesson for us as we found we were overleveraged beyond our appetite and our hedges were in place but limited. We even realized that such event can't even be classified as tail event, so prepare for 10x worse scenarios. Also, that day and numerous others before that are a lesson for those who want to venture into F&O trading (even part time with their jobs). Pl be careful with F&O trading, it takes time to understand risks be it inherent in the instrument, asset, exchange, external environment or in execution. The time and effort required is immense and it's your hard-earned money at stake. So, thinking you can do it part time in quick time, is foolhardy. So, scale slowly and always be in study mode here. #Trading #Markets #Learnings

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You know an industry issue is big when mainstream papers start to write about it... - A significant shortage of exciting UK tech companies listing on the London Stock Exchange. Not surprising given... - Underperformance of Recent IPOs: Half of the top 20 IPOs in 2023 underperformed compared to the Stoxx Europe 600 index, with some companies like CAB Payments experiencing significant share price declines. - Regulatory Concerns: Founders and venture capitalists are hesitant about pursuing acquisitions due to increased scrutiny by competition watchdogs. - Post-Election IPO Surge Expected: According to PitchBook, IPO activity in Europe is predicted to increase considerably after upcoming elections, with 300 companies potentially ready to float, nearly a third from the UK. - Market Valuations Caution: The financial climate suggests 2024 might still be premature for many companies to go public, given uncertain valuations and economic conditions. - Brain Drain to the US: There's an ongoing trend of European companies, including notable names like Arm and Birkenstock, choosing to list in the US due to better returns compared to Europe. - Dissatisfaction with London Listings: Some British tech companies that listed in London express regret, citing issues like lack of knowledge, liquidity, and negative media coverage. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gFpN4hRD #thrivetogether #liquidity #secondaries

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My two cents ... on Blithering Barbs and BRICks! US President-elect Donald Trump’s recent X tweet is pandering to his vote bank and the Western world, which want to believe they have a say in what happens in the rest of the world. His own economic experts are confused ... some propose a decentralized cryptocurrency environment to de-dollarize, and some believe a central bank-led digital currency. A 100% tariff on BRICS countries ... is a gullible idea. More than anything, it will have a boomerang effect on US consumers who can ill afford to pay more for the most basic things (Macroeconomy 101: tariffs translate into making goods expensive since the US cannot match or manufacture to China's capacity or price points), and who, as we speak, are using credit cards to pay even their grocery bills! Last I checked, there is no BRICS currency. Neither India nor Russia want one. Brazil and South Africa are on the fence. China is the only exception. Most countries are transitioning toward a multipolar world. Instead, most are on board with a basket of currencies. It is common sense neighbors want the option to transact with one another in their own currencies without the dollar being … a kebab me haddi (rough translation: third wheel) ... and this makes the most economic sense! Trump’s tweet trumpets ... a much ado about nothing, followed by a … shooting your mouth off first ... and makes for 100% entertainment!

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