Aldo Beolchini

As of 8th October 2024, the UK energy markets have started the day with notable fluctuations in both gas and power prices, driven by supply constraints and shifting weather conditions. In the gas market, the NBP Day-Ahead price climbed to 100.00 p/therm, reflecting a 2.20 p/therm increase from the previous session. This rise comes amid reduced gas flows from Norway due to ongoing unplanned maintenance at the Asgard field and an extended outage at Troll, impacting total exit flows. Despite this, exports from Norway to the UK via the Langeled pipeline have increased, supporting the UK system, which opened 8 mcm/day long this morning. LNG send-out has decreased to 11 mcm/day, with three new cargoes expected to arrive in the UK over the next three weeks. UK storage injections continue, and pan-European storage remains robust at 94.56%, though minor withdrawals are being observed in some countries. On the power side, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price rose to £89.09/MWh, up by £12.85/MWh compared to the previous session, while the peak load price surged to £94.14/MWh. This price spike is largely due to expected cooler temperatures from tomorrow, which will drive up heating demand through the middle of the month. Wind output remains strong and is forecasted to stay above seasonal norms for the next two days before stabilising at average levels. Nuclear outages continue to play a significant role, with several key plants still offline or under maintenance, further tightening supply. Looking at other energy commodities, Brent crude oil is trading at $80.93/bbl, a $2.88 increase from the previous settlement, driven by a combination of OPEC+ cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks. Coal prices for ARA CIF Cal Y+1 settled at $127.25/tonne, slightly down by $0.54/tonne. In the carbon market, the EU ETS Dec-24 contract fell to €61.76/tonne, the lowest level in six months, while the UK ETS Dec-24 contract dropped to £35.29/tonne. These declines come amid lower industrial activity and cooler weather across the continent. In currency markets, the GBP/EUR exchange rate dipped slightly to 1.1916, while GBP/USD fell to 1.3083, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. As colder weather sets in and supply challenges persist, the UK energy markets are likely to remain volatile. Keep an eye on gas imports, LNG arrivals, and nuclear availability, as these will be key factors influencing prices in the coming days.

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Interesting thinking about the electricity market and how market forces could support an evolution of the way we do business there. "For instance, similar to markets that trade different grades of crude oil (WTI and Brent), perhaps we can “grade” energy based on its characteristics, so that energy that includes inertia and VARs is valued higher than energy that doesn’t include these other characteristics. A MWh of energy from a synchronous generator has a higher operational reliability value than a MWh of IBR energy, so how can we signal this economically?"

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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The members of the newly-established Utilities for Net Zero Alliance (UNEZA) unveiled a joint action plan pledging to expand the renewable energy capacity within their portfolios to 749 GW by 2030, alongside initiatives aimed at grid infrastructure development. The strategy entails a 2.5-fold increase to the 2023 volumes and outlines an action plan focused on three major areas -- de-risking supply chains; facilitating policy and regulatory support, and mobilising capital, according to a press statement. The UNEZA Roadmap to 2030 was unveiled today within the 14th Assembly of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). UNEZA, launched at COP28, aims to unite utilities and power companies to lead in the development of grids that are ready for renewable energy, promote clean energy solutions, and advance electrification efforts. It is under the guidance of IRENA and the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions. The net zero utilities alliance is led by UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) and unites more than 30 partners. Green Grids Initiative and ACWA Power are the latest additions to the community. DEWA, EDF, EDP, E.ON, Enel, Engie, Etihad Water and Electricity, Iberdrola, Jinko Power, Masdar, National Grid, Octopus Energy, RWE and others are among UNEZA's founders. https://lnkd.in/eixKAaKz

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Daily Energy Report November 8th: A cool start to the day finds UK energy markets bracing for lower-than-average temperatures across Europe, impacting both gas and power prices. The UK gas system began the morning undersupplied by 10 mcm/day, with colder weather set to intensify from mid-November. Natural gas for power demand is lower on the day-ahead, as wind generation rises, offsetting the need for gas-fired power production. LNG supplies are stable at 33 mcm/day, with three cargoes scheduled for arrival soon, helping to maintain a steady flow of imports into the UK and Northwest Europe. Norwegian exports remain consistent at 331 mcm/day, despite minor disruptions due to unplanned maintenance at key sites. The UK Day-Ahead gas price is at 103.65 p/therm, a slight rise compared to previous days as the seasonal temperature drop begins to reflect in pricing. Expectations for lower-than-normal temperatures, particularly from November 13th onward, are feeding into this price firming. Curve contracts also strengthened, driven partly by broader market influences, including movements in the oil markets and post-election volatility in the US. In parallel, Pan-European gas storage levels remain robust at 94.43%, a comforting buffer as winter demand looms. On the power side, UK Day-Ahead baseload is trading at £96.10/MWh, with high wind generation easing some pressure on gas demand for electricity production. Nuclear output remains steady at 4.7 GW, though two reactors remain offline, accounting for a total of 1.2 GW in curtailed capacity. Wind is expected to continue to play a critical role in balancing the grid over the coming days, while solar output, currently low, is anticipated to exceed normal levels starting Monday. Commodities also show price adjustments: Brent crude for December is up to $75.63 per barrel, while coal for 2025 delivery sits at $121.12/tonne, reflecting steady demand expectations. Carbon pricing for EUAs has climbed to €66.04/tonne, with the UK ETS at £38.00/tonne, underscoring the ongoing pressure on carbon markets amid seasonal adjustments and higher demand forecasts. On the currency front, the pound has seen minor movement, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.2021 and GBP/USD at 1.2986. This currency stability aids in smoothing import costs, particularly for gas, but shifts in either direction remain likely as winter demand and international market conditions evolve. Today’s market data highlights the intricate balance of supply and demand factors at play as the UK and Europe prepare for colder weather and a potential uptick in heating and power requirements. As conditions shift in the coming days, these factors will continue to define energy prices and trading behaviors across the UK and beyond.

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21st November, Daily Energy Market Update - Today’s energy market developments reflect a dynamic interplay of weather-driven demand, robust LNG arrivals, and evolving supply factors across Europe. Below-average temperatures persist in the UK, although forecasts suggest a temporary warming by the weekend. Gas and power prices are responding accordingly, with both spot and curve prices showing upward momentum. UK natural gas prices have risen, with NBP day-ahead trading at 117.10 p/therm, up by 2.35 p/therm from the previous session. A colder-than-average weather spell has elevated demand, pushing system demand to 322.48 mcm/day. While UK LNG terminals maintain healthy send-out levels, nine LNG tankers are scheduled to arrive over the next two weeks, supporting supply stability. Notably, Norwegian flows remain steady at 340 mcm/day despite maintenance curtailments at Vesterled and Kårstø, which are temporarily reducing flows by 25 mcm/day combined. European gas storage withdrawals have increased to meet the rising heating demand, with storage levels at 89%. This contrasts with the UK system's morning oversupply of 7 mcm/day, which could temper further price hikes if conditions stabilise. UK power prices have also climbed, with day-ahead baseload reaching £102.90/MWh, up £4.72/MWh from the prior day. Cooler weather and lower wind generation have driven demand higher, while nuclear output from France supports broader European supply. EDF’s recent reactor restarts have lifted French nuclear generation to its highest levels since January, offering a buffer to cold-weather-driven demand spikes. Wind power output in the UK is forecasted to exceed seasonal norms in the coming days before dropping below expectations next week. This variability emphasises the need for strategic balancing, especially given steady interconnector flows and high reliance on gas-fired generation. Brent crude traded slightly lower at $72.81/bbl, reflecting cautious sentiment amidst geopolitical concerns. Carbon markets remain resilient, with EUA Dec 24 certificates up at €68.38/tonne. Meanwhile, the GBP/EUR exchange rate edged higher to 1.1993, potentially impacting energy imports. The interplay of colder weather, high system demand, and upcoming LNG arrivals will shape short-term market movements. While gas supply appears robust, ongoing European storage withdrawals and price volatility underline the importance of monitoring geopolitical and weather developments closely. Stay informed as we navigate a season of heightened market activity and complexity.

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Today October 11th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with a strong position, reflecting the ongoing shifts in both gas and power sectors. NBP day-ahead gas prices were up to 98.50p/therm, continuing the upward momentum seen from yesterday as colder-than-expected temperatures swept across Europe, leading to increased demand. The UK system opened long at 11mcm/day this morning due to revised down demand forecasts and higher flows from Norway through Langeled. Norwegian supply remains robust despite unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks, which are expected to resolve by early next week. LNG send-out remained steady at 12mcm/day, primarily from the South Hook terminal, with two LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the coming weeks. European storage levels are high, at 94.74%. UK day-ahead power prices surged to £87.67/MWh, driven by the rising gas prices and colder weather. Forward power contracts also saw gains, with November 2024 base contracts trading at £86.50/MWh, reflecting the tight supply outlook as temperatures are expected to remain below normal until early next week. EDF’s announcement that their output target for next year remains unchanged at 335-365TWh provides some stability to the market, although nuclear outages in the UK and Europe remain a concern. Notably, Sizewell B begins planned maintenance today, reducing its capacity by 490MW for the next 47 days. Brent crude oil prices rose to $79.40/bbl, fueled by a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. In parallel, carbon prices climbed to €65.00/tonne for EUA Dec 2024, and UK ETS prices increased to £38.07/tonne. The rise in carbon prices adds further pressure on power markets, particularly as coal prices also saw a significant jump, with ARA CIF coal for Cal 2025 reaching $126.15/tonne. The currency markets saw minor fluctuations, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.1949 and GBP/USD at 1.3058, as the energy sector keeps an eye on global economic indicators that could affect import costs and inflation. As we head into mid-October, the outlook remains bullish with colder temperatures expected to continue driving demand. Two more LNG cargoes are expected by early November, providing some relief, but supply risks persist. We could see continued price volatility as the market navigates these challenges.

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Check out this chart from The Economist That is exponential growth in solar power installations! Good thing too, as AI is doubling in computing requirements every 5.7 months!

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Did you know 53.3% of the UK’s total generation capacity now comes from the independent sector? ⚡ Download our UK Renewable Independent Sector report for a snap-shot of the UK independent generation market and to find out how their current contribution to the generation mix is bridging the gap to the future energy system. 👉 Download the report here: https://lnkd.in/e4mHNBtA #RenewableEnergy #IndependentGenerators #NetZero #Decarbonisation

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A very interesting piece on #GBEnergy's shortcomings by Mathew Lawrence of Common Ground, published by New Statesman Spotlight 👇 Key recommendations: - GB Energy should be given sufficient borrowing power for large-scale investment - The company requires greater capitalisation than the current £8.3bn - There should be a customer-facing retail supply arm https://lnkd.in/ej9NHfUc 💡 CEP responded to the GB Energy announcements here: https://lnkd.in/eR34yesD 💡 ...and we've discussed what Great British Energy can't do here: https://lnkd.in/ee4v3tEm

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6th December 2024, Daily UK #Energy Market Overview - This morning, the UK energy market faces a challenging landscape with the system opening 9 mcm/day undersupplied. #Gas prices show a slight decline, with NBP Day-Ahead settling at 114.50 p/therm. Meanwhile, UK Power Day-Ahead Base dropped significantly to £77.75/MWh, down by £15.73, reflecting bearish conditions across the board. Colder weather looms as temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal norms from this weekend, increasing heating demand and pressure on energy systems. While #LNG send-outs remain steady, Norwegian exports are ramping up, mitigating some supply concerns despite additional planned maintenance at Sleipner and Gullfaks. UK gas demand surged to 248.77 mcm, driven by robust LDZ requirements. Wind generation is forecast to weaken next week, further tightening gas-for-#power needs. Power prices softened significantly due to strong wind generation earlier in the week and declining European gas storage levels, now at 84%, marking a 3% week-on-week drop. The geopolitical landscape adds complexity, with President Putin's decree easing payment methods for gas exports to counter sanctions against Gazprombank. Market reactions remain muted but watchful as these changes could influence European and UK energy curves further. On the global front, Brent crude is stable at $72.09/bbl, while coal prices fell to $115.54/tonne. Carbon trading saw minor dips, with EUA Dec 24 at €67.34/tonne and UK ETS Dec 24 at £36.17/tonne, reflecting subdued industrial activity. Currency movements show a slight strengthening of the pound, with GBP/EUR at 1.2077 and GBP/USD at 1.2758. This offers mild relief for import-heavy energy trades but remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. As colder weather and supply challenges converge, market participants must stay vigilant, especially with LNG arrivals scheduled to bolster supplies. The evolving dynamics of European storage, renewables output, and geopolitical influences will continue shaping the market trajectory.

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🇬🇧 ⚡️ State-Owned, Future-Focused: Introducing GB Energy 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Last month we shared some thoughts around Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan and its vision of “making Britain a clean energy superpower”. In this week’s post, we’ll focus on a core part of that vision: GB Energy. 🚀 The new, state-owned energy company is a key element of Labour's vision of Britain as a clean technology leader and innovator, and the push towards the ultimate goal of Net Zero by 2050. ❓However, even before its official launch, there are some warning signs, suggesting disparities between vision and reality. Both Rachel Reeves’ commitment of only £125m across 2025/2026, despite the headline figure of £8.3bn over five years, and Jürgen Maier’s claim of 1,000 new jobs scaling down to a more realistic 300, are symptomatic of ‘overpromising and under-delivering’, potentially worrying signs of things to come. ❌ 🤔 Despite this, it’s important to view these early challenges within the broader context of GB Energy’s long-term objectives. Establishing a state-owned energy company is a complex endeavour, and initial missteps or scaled-back ambitions don’t necessarily define the entire project’s trajectory. GB Energy holds significant potential to reshape the UK’s energy landscape, and if it achieves outcomes comparable to state-owned pioneers like Statkraft in Norway or Vattenfall in Sweden, it could become a transformative force in the pursuit of “making Britain a clean energy superpower.” 📈 #NetZero #Renewables #CleanTechnology #EnergyTransition #GBEnergy

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How can hydrogen power data centres, and industry? Our new whitepaper, which is being launched in partnership with Ceres and Centrica, explains everything. Like traditional thermal generation, an SOFC unit uses a gas to create power. Whether this is hydrogen, biomethane or natural gas it does it without combustion to provide highly efficient, quiet, clean power. Ben Richardson, head of electrolysers & SOFC at Bosch UK, said: “One of hydrogen’s strongest use cases is to use it for power. Coupled with local hydrogen production this not only bolsters the UK’s energy security but it provides power when renewables such and wind and solar cannot.” Click here to read the whitepaper: https://bit.ly/3Zc8Tvd

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In a first-of-its-kind trial, we’re partnering with a leading renewable energy company - ScottishPower - to support vulnerable households through #WarmHomePrescription. The trial focuses on low-income people with cold-sensitive health conditions who live in homes with low Energy Performance Certificate ratings. We aim to deliver measures for 1,000 households with a long-term ambition of supporting up to 2,000 households. Mark Murphy, Head of UK Government Obligations at ScottishPower said: “Our aim is to deliver ECO4 home improvements, and their benefits, sooner rather than later, the quicker we deliver the sooner recipients can live in a warmer home.” Discover more: https://orlo.uk/iwRkZ

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Daily #Energy Market #Report - September 5th, 2024 - The UK energy market today continues to reflect shifting dynamics across power generation, gas supplies, and pricing. We’re currently experiencing a brief period of warm temperatures, expected to last until September 8th, before we reach an inflexion point where temperatures are forecasted to drop significantly. This anticipated drop could influence short-term NBP Forward Market prices. On the renewable front, wind generation forecasts remain weak for the next two weeks, placing upward pressure on Unconstrained Balancing Line prices. The limited contribution of wind power to the grid underscores the volatility of renewable energy supply, especially as we transition towards a more sustainable energy system. Yesterday, the Norwegian maintenance schedule saw minor changes, with a day added to the Kollsnes and Nyhamna gas processing facilities, while Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin maintenance durations were slightly reduced. These adjustments may lead to further price volatility in the near term, but no significant shifts are expected yet. In terms of pricing, NBP gas and UK electricity markets have seen notable downward movement. NBP gas day-ahead prices increased slightly by 1.06%, but the overall trend points towards a drop in forward prices, with October 2024 NBP prices falling by 3.94%. The UK electricity market also followed a similar trend, with day-ahead power prices declining 15.68% for base and 16.07% for peaks. Longer-term contracts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 show reductions across the board, with decreases of between 2% and 3%. The UK gas system remains long, with a surplus of 8.32 million cubic meters, reflecting lower demand versus seasonal norms. LNG imports and domestic supply continue to support the system, though any significant changes in interconnector flows or storage levels could drive fluctuations. The week ahead could bring further adjustments, particularly as we approach the inflexion point in temperature and see the impact of maintenance on gas flows. With renewables contributing less to the mix, reliance on gas and interconnector imports remains strong, but any shifts in market conditions will likely cause further price movement. As these trends continue to unfold, it's crucial to stay informed and agile. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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💥Ofgem’s P415 regulation modification will change the electricity trading landscape by allowing Virtual Lead Parties (VLPs) to participate directly in the wholesale electricity market, rather than solely through the Balancing Mechanism. This shift demonstrates the growing role flexibility has in the GB energy market and creates further opportunities for manufacturers with flexibility in their assets and/or processes. ⚡But to take full advantage of the revenue opportunities, asset data and the forecasting models will be key and the management of this increasing volume of information is complex. 💥Join this webinar to hear from GridBeyond's Donal Murray, Senior Product Manager and Advika Bhat, Senior Trade Manager where they will explore the challenges and opportunities of P415 modification and how big data and site-specific information, combined with AI and machine learning can identify which portions of your operations could be made flexible. What : Webinar | Optimise for P415 and unlock hidden flexibility When: 19 November 2024 @11am Register https://ow.ly/mn7W50U77hf

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Fantastic to see the approval of a new electricity transmission line between Scotland and Yorkshire. Particularly since the UK's grid capacity has been a major barrier for #investors looking to put their money into UK #renewables. UKSIF's data shows almost half (44%) of energy companies have faced challenges securing a #gridconnection when investing here, with up to £115bn of additional investment into the energy sector available if this and other policy barriers are lifted. This new connectivity should help unlock investment into Scotland and the North of England and represents an important step to help the UK reach its 2030 #cleanenergy target. https://lnkd.in/eJV2AxqB

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Daily UK #Energy #Market Update –Monday 2nd December 2024: Today’s energy markets paint a dynamic picture with fluctuating conditions influencing gas, power, and renewables. As of this morning, the UK's gas system opened long by 12 mcm/day, supported by slightly above-seasonal-normal temperatures. Gas contracts continue to edge upward, influenced by the EU's increased storage fill mandates. Day-Ahead NBP prices stood at 116.30 p/therm, reflecting a 0.95 p increase from the previous session. Seasonal forward contracts also saw gains, with Winter 2025 now priced at 108.57 p/therm. On the power side, Day-Ahead baseload prices decreased to £94.11/MWh, a notable dip from last week. This comes amidst reduced wind generation today, expected to decline by 7 GW before rebounding midweek. Nuclear capacity remains constrained due to ongoing outages at several UK sites, including Sizewell and Heysham. However, the Sizewell B-1 reactor's planned return on 5th December should offer some relief. Internationally, geopolitical tensions added complexity to the gas supply landscape. Russian flows dropped by 3%, following disruptions linked to an arbitration case between OMV and Gazprom. Despite these concerns, LNG imports remain robust, with 12 carriers en route to the UK over the coming weeks, bolstering energy security. Oil prices remain subdued, with Brent crude trading at $72.94/bbl, while coal prices stabilized at $122.80/tonne. Carbon markets also moved slightly upward, with EUA Dec-24 contracts closing at €68.40/tonne. The UK faces a mixed weather outlook this week, with sharp temperature fluctuations expected before stabilising around seasonal norms by 8th December. Wind power variability will likely shape gas reliance over the coming days, maintaining a delicate balance in supply and demand dynamics. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s update as we continue to monitor the impact of these developments on market trends and pricing.

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